Hey-o. Welcome to the 2014 BJOL Hall of Fame Vote.
For any newcomers to the site, this marks the sixth year we’ve run a vote that parallels the official BBWAA vote. We operate with the same rules at the good folks at the BBWAA: voters can select up to ten players, 75% gets a player elected, and less than 5% gets the player dropped from the ballot.
One of the reasons I started this years ago was to focus our conversation about the Hall-of-Fame towards the players we’re most interested in talking about. In that first year, Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven were on the ballot. I had a strong suspicion that:
a) Most BJOL readers believed both men to be eminently deserving of Cooperstown, and
b) Most readers didn’t want to read annual articles advocating their candidacy, until the BBWAA got around to electing them.
If the BBWAA wants to spend five years scratching their heads over Tim Raines, that’s fine. But I figured that our conversations…the conversations that takes place here, on this site….needn’t be shaped by what other people are thinking over in BBWAA-land.
One of the positives is that we have a much more manageable ballot than the BBWAA one. We’ve done a better job of voting people in. This lets us squeeze other, deserving players onto our ballot: Lou Whittaker was the winner of last year’s write-in vote: he is a new addition to our ballot this year.
We’ve done a better job, too, of voting the right players in. Here are the four players the BBWAA and the BJOL readers agree on:
Rickey Henderson
Barry Larkin
Roberto Alomar
Bert Blyleven
Of those four, BJOL voters elected three of them earlier than the BBWAA did. All four were first-ballot entrants to the BJOL HOF….only Rickey had comparable lucky with the BBWAA.
Here’s where the BJOL readers have split from the BBWAA:
BJOL
|
BBWAA
|
Tim Raines
|
Jim Rice
|
Alan Trammell
|
Andre Dawson
|
Mark McGwire
|
Jeff Bagwell
|
Edgar Martinez
|
Craig Biggio
|
Mike Piazza
|
Barry Bonds
|
Roger Clemens
|
Which seems a better list? Even if you’re a steroid black-lister, you’d probably concede that Raines, Trammell, Martinez, Biggio, Bagwell, and Piazza makes for a stronger Hall than Andre Dawson and Jim Rice. Which one would you rather visit? Me, too.
Anyway, we ride the circus wheel again. Here are this year’s candidates.
Name
|
Career rWAR
|
Career Win Shares
|
Prev. BJOL Vote %
|
Greg Maddux
|
106.8
|
398
|
--
|
Mike Mussina
|
83
|
270
|
--
|
Tom Glavine
|
81.4
|
314
|
--
|
Curt Schilling
|
79.9
|
252
|
54.4%
|
Lou Whitaker*
|
74.8
|
351
|
--
|
Frank Thomas
|
73.6
|
405
|
--
|
Larry Walker
|
72.6
|
308
|
49.5%
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
71.8
|
394
|
48.5%
|
Kevin Brown
|
68.5
|
242
|
18.4%
|
Kenny Lofton
|
68.1
|
287
|
25.2%
|
Andre Dawson
|
64.4
|
340
|
38.8%
|
Sammy Sosa
|
58.4
|
321
|
33.0%
|
John Olerud
|
58
|
302
|
5.8%
|
Jeff Kent
|
55.2
|
339
|
--
|
Fred McGriff
|
52.6
|
326
|
28.2%
|
Luis Gonzalez
|
51.5
|
318
|
--
|
Kenny Rogers
|
51.4
|
206
|
--
|
Bernie Williams
|
49.5
|
312
|
9.7%
|
Dale Murphy
|
46.3
|
230
|
10.7%
|
Jack Morris
|
44.1
|
225
|
8.7%
|
Moises Alou
|
39.7
|
277
|
--
|
Ray Durham
|
33.7
|
231
|
--
|
Hideo Nomo
|
21.1
|
108
|
--
|
Mike Timlin
|
19.6
|
124
|
--
|
Paul LoDuca
|
17.9
|
127
|
--
|
Richie Sexson
|
17.9
|
154
|
--
|
Armano Benitez
|
17.7
|
128
|
--
|
Sean Casey
|
16.4
|
156
|
--
|
Eric Gagne
|
11.9
|
86
|
--
|
Jacque Jones
|
11.5
|
124
|
--
|
J.T. Snow
|
11
|
170
|
--
|
Todd Jones
|
10.9
|
119
|
--
|
Please feel free to submit your ballots in the comments section below. I’ll post the results when the BBWAA announces their results.
And we’re doing another write-in candidate for this year: in addition to the standard ten players, voters are invited to list one write-in candidate, for any player they want to see on next year’s ballot. Eligible players must not be
a) In the actual Hall-of-Fame, and
b) On our current ballot.
Whoever gets the most write-in votes will get a spot on next year’s ballot.
* * *
With such a sizeable ballot, it helps to break the players down into groups. Running them down, with some additional commentary:
The Obviously Qualified Player,
Whom the BBWAA is Totally Going to Elect
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Greg Maddux
|
106.8
|
398
|
Four CY Awards. One more win than Roger.
|
I think that the BBWAA voting system is clearly broken. It’s like a clogged drain: there are far too many candidates on the current ballot for 400+ voters to come to a consensus on, and the 10-player limit means that deserving player are going to drop off like flies. Kenny Lofton dropped off last year. Kevin Brown dropped off the year before.
What Maddux’s candidacy will test is whether the clog is absolutely stopped, or whether there’s still a trickle of water getting through.
If Maddux gets elected, then the Hall of Fame and the BBWAA can pretend, for one more year, that the current backlog of qualified players isn’t a tremendous problem. If Maddux fails to get elected - if such an obviously great and deserving player doesn’t make it past the guards – the Hall and the BBWAA will be forced to acknowledge that a problem exists, and they’ll have to fix it.
So I’m hoping that he doesn’t get in. I’d like the BBWAA and the Hall of drastically overhaul their system, and figure out a more equitable way to get the best players represented. It is really silly that the likes of Ron Santo, Joe Buck, and Marvin Miller actually died before their careers and contributions were celebrated. It’d be a shame if players like Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell and Edgar Martinez and Mike Mussina are kept in a similar limbo.
I think, though, that Maddux will get through. I’ll wager that he and Biggio will get elected, with Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Jack Morris, and Jeff Bagwell falling short.
I could be wrong about Jack Morris, but I don’t know that the ‘last-year bump’ is going to happen on such a crowded ballot. I think he falls short.
Three Extremely Talented Pitchers, Who Would Each
Be the Best Pitchers on the Ballot in a Normal Year
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Mike Mussina
|
83.0
|
270
|
The least moose-like player to be called 'Moose.'
|
Tom Glavine
|
81.4
|
314
|
305 wins. Billerica's native son.
|
Curt Schilling
|
79.9
|
252
|
216-146 record, 127 ERA+, 3116 k's, bloody sock.
|
Who is the best pitcher, among these three?
Glavine is the obvious choice: he has the most wins, and the only one with 300+ wins. He won two Cy Young Awards, while Mussina and Schilling never won any. Glavine threw the most innings of the trio, 4,413 to 3,562 (Mussina) and 3,261 (Schilling). That’s a sizeable gap.
But the other two have their cases: Mussina spent his career in the competitive American League East, where he posted a better Adjusted ERA than Glavine, with more strikeouts. Curt Schilling lags behind the other two in wins and innings pitched, but he outpaces both in strikeouts.
Here’s an interest fact: Tom Glavine walked more batters than Mussina and Schilling. Not individually: combined. Glavine walked exactly 1500 batters, whereas Schilling (711) and Mussina (785) gave away just 1496 combined free passes.
Three More Talented Pitchers, Who Maybe
Aren’t Quite As Talented As the Guys Above
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Kevin Brown
|
68.5
|
242
|
211-144 record, 3.28 ERA, 127 ERA+, (some) blood.
|
Jack Morris
|
44.1
|
225
|
254-186 record, 3.90 ERA, 105 ERA+. Iconic ’stache.
|
Kenny Rogers
|
51.4
|
206
|
The Gambler.
|
Cleaning my house yesterday, I came across a 1992 Score baseball card of Kenny Rogers. This was weird because a) I live in New Zealand, and b) I live in 2013. I don’t know where it came from, but it had my son’s teeth marks all over it. On the back it said this:
"He was drafted way down in the 39th round in ’82 after playing exclusively in the outfield in high school. Then, in seven seasons in the minors, Kenny compiled a less-than-inspiring 19-38 record, with a 4.25 ERA."
Kenny Rogers will probably not get too many votes for the Hall-of-Fame this year. That said, Rogers’ career is perhaps the most improbable of any of the players on the ballot. Rogers spent seven years in the minors, and four more years as an effective bullpen arm for the Rangers before they let him start. He was twenty-eight at the time, and he had a long career, with solid years intermixed with some bright moments. His career looks a lot like Tim Wakefield’s career. He made the All-Star team for three straight years between the ages of 39 and 41, receiving his first votes for the Cy Young and MVP in that last season. He was a major league starter through the age of 43. He got a ‘W’ in the record book more times than Curt Schilling, or Don Drysdale, or Hal Newhouser. He has as many career victories as Pedro Martinez.
There’s little to add about Jack Morris: I think he was an excellent pitcher, and I think he is either the sixth or seventh best starting pitcher on this ballot.
Two First Basemen of Comparable Value
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Frank Thomas
|
73.6
|
405
|
521 HR. Part of the .300/.400/.500 Club.
|
Rafael Palmeiro
|
71.8
|
394
|
3020 hits, 560 HR, 1865 RBI. Sang about belugas.
|
Pass. I’ll spin this out into another article.
Two Other First Basemen Who Are Not Quite
Comparable to the First Group. Or Each Other
Fred McGriff
|
52.6
|
326
|
493 HR, 1550 RBI, 134 OPS+. Crime Dog.
|
John Olerud
|
58.0
|
302
|
1993 batting title, 255 HR. Wore a helmet
|
Let’s count the differences. McGriff was a strong power-hitter, a perennial contender for the HR crown. Olerud was a solid contact guy who once made a run at .400. McGriff had a thin body with muscle: he had an athlete’s body, one that suggested he could play any sport. Olerud, though strong and agile, didn’t have the same physique. In recent pictures, Olerud looks like a math teacher, or an insurance adjuster.
Olerud had one blindingly bright season, but was mostly considered a second-tier star. McGriff never finished as high as Olerud in an MVP vote, but he showed up on ballots eight times. Olerud was on just two ballots (3rd and 12th). McGriff had a great nickname, while Olerud didn’t have a nickname. Olerud won two championships in his early twenties, while McGriff had to wait until he was thirty-two to get a ring. Fred McGriff was traded, mid-career, with Tony Fernandez, for Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. John Olerud was traded, mid-career, for someone named Robert Person. Olerud went from college straight to the majors. McGriff was drafted out of high school, and was traded around in the minors. Olerud’s post-season numbers as slightly worse than his regular season numbers; McGriff was very good in the postseason.
Olerud is from Washington, the northwest part of the US. McGriff is from Florida, which doesn’t actually exist.
Two Second Basemen Who Both Rate
Somewhere in the Top-20 at that Position
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Lou Whitaker*
|
74.8
|
351
|
244 HR, 117 OPS+. Sweet Lou.
|
Jeff Kent
|
55.2
|
339
|
377 HR, 1518 RBI (529 non-Bonds RBI's).
|
Just my two-cents: I think it’ll take Jeff Kent a long time to get into Cooperstown. I don’t know that he will get in, but if he does, it’s not going to happen quickly. He’ll stick to the ballot, but I don’t imagine that there will be a groundswell of people writing ‘Get Jeff Kent in the Hall’ articles. Which is somewhat surprising: he holds the record for most homeruns by a second baseman, and it’s not particularly close.
Lou Whitaker, one of the most underrated players in history, is the first write-in candidate for the BJOL HOF.
A Cluster of Outfielders That I Can’t
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Larry Walker
|
72.6
|
308
|
383 HR, .313 BA, 7 Gold Gloves
|
Kenny Lofton
|
68.1
|
287
|
Five-time All-Star, 4 Gold Gloves. 622 steals, 2428 hits.
|
Andre Dawson
|
64.4
|
340
|
438 HR, 314 SB, 1987 MVP, HOFer
|
Sammy Sosa
|
58.4
|
321
|
609 homeruns, 1667 RBI. 1998 MVP. Three 60+ HR.
|
Bernie Williams
|
49.5
|
312
|
Good guitarist. Career OPS+ of 125, 287 HR.
|
Dale Murphy
|
46.3
|
230
|
Two MVP's, five Gold Gloves. Nice guy.
|
Moises Alou
|
39.7
|
277
|
332 HR, 106 SB, 128 OPS+
|
Luis Gonzalez
|
51.5
|
318
|
354 HR, 128 SB, 119 OPS+
|
Ugh.
Okay…Maybe I should break this down a bit.
Five-Tool Superstars Who Might’ve Benefited
From Some Late-Career Park Effects
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Larry Walker
|
72.6
|
308
|
383 HR, .313 BA, 7 Gold Gloves
|
Andre Dawson
|
64.4
|
340
|
438 HR, 314 SB, 1987 MVP, HOFer
|
Dawson and Walker seem very similar players. Baseball-reference lets you adjust a player’s entire batting line to neutral league and park contexts. Here are Dawson and Walker’s career numbers, adjusted to a neutral context, and stated per-162 games:
Player
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
BB
|
K
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Walker
|
96
|
162
|
36
|
5
|
28
|
93
|
17
|
68
|
101
|
.294
|
.379
|
.531
|
Dawson
|
90
|
176
|
32
|
6
|
28
|
103
|
20
|
38
|
93
|
.286
|
.330
|
.494
|
Yup…very similar. I’m happy that Dawson has a plaque in Cooperstown, and I’d like to see Larry Walker join him.
Three Outfielders Who Did a Lot of Things Well
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Bernie Williams
|
49.5
|
312
|
Good guitarist. Career OPS+ of 125, 287 HR.
|
Dale Murphy
|
46.3
|
230
|
Two MVP's, five Gold Gloves. Nice guy.
|
Moises Alou
|
39.7
|
277
|
332 HR, 106 SB, 128 OPS+
|
One of the reasons I’m a ‘Big Hall’ guy is that I think it’s worth rewarding players like Murphy and Bernie. Murphy was, for those who missed out on a fun decade, one of the big stars of the 1980’s…it was sort of taken for granted that he’d make the Hall of Fame. His numbers were inflated by a tremendous home park, and his decline was precipitous, but he was an upstanding role model in a messy era, and one of the few highlights for the pre-Glavine/Smoltz/Maddux Braves.
Bernie Williams was the steadily excellent center fielder for six World Series teams: he was, quietly, a central cog in that Yankee dynasty
Moises Alou got a very late start to his major league career, not getting a full-time job until he was twenty five. This is a surprising fact, considering his parentage. It is very clear that Alou had Hall-of-Fame talent, but the slow start, coupled with lots of injuries, kept him from putting up the career numbers for Cooperstown. At his best, Alou was a player comparable to Beltran: someone who excelled at every facet of the game.
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Kenny Lofton
|
68.1
|
287
|
Five-time All-Star, 4 Gold Gloves. 622 steals, 2428 hits.
|
Kenny Lofton is still on our ballot, and he should make an interesting case to consider once we clear the deck of all the pitchers. Because his defense is a central component to his candidacy, there’s a wider-than-usual gap between rWAR and Win Shares’ evaluation of him.
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Notes
|
Sammy Sosa
|
58.4
|
321
|
609 homeruns, 1667 RBI. 1998 MVP. Three 60+ HR.
|
Luis Gonzalez
|
51.5
|
318
|
354 HR, 128 SB, 119 OPS+
|
It’s astonishing how many players on this ballot have tremendous RBI tallies. Fifty-one players have accumulated 1500+ RBI’s…our ballot has six of them:
Raffy – 1835
The Big Hurt – 1704
Sosa – 1667
Dawson - 1591
McGriff – 1550
Kent – 1518
The BBWAA has Bonds (1996) and Bagwell (1529), too, though they’ve already elected Dawson.
Name
|
rWAR
|
Win Shares
|
Ray Durham
|
33.7
|
231
|
Hideo Nomo
|
21.1
|
108
|
Mike Timlin
|
19.6
|
124
|
Paul LoDuca
|
17.9
|
127
|
Richie Sexson
|
17.9
|
154
|
Armano Benitez
|
17.7
|
128
|
Sean Casey
|
16.4
|
156
|
Eric Gagne
|
11.9
|
86
|
Jacque Jones
|
11.5
|
124
|
J.T. Snow
|
11
|
170
|
Todd Jones
|
10.9
|
119
|
Hideo Nomo is a player whose mark on the game far exceeds his counting stats. The first Japanese player to ‘break’ the system and sign with a major league team, Nomo was an instant star: I remember the first time I saw him pitch, the first time I saw that brief pause he had in his wind-up. He was brilliant in his rookie year, and he had a few other highlights along the way. His second no-hitter (in his first start with the Red Sox) was the first no-hitter I watched from start to finish. His breakout performance was directly responsible for the influx of Japanese players who followed in his wake.
Anyway, I’ll have more to come in the following week. In the meantime, be sure to cast your votes in the comments section.
David Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.