Mixing things up a little bit: today we’re asking some central questions for the teams of the American League Central division.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Q. How’d That Happen? And Can They Do It Again?
There were a lot of reasons why the White Sox shouldn’t have contended in 2009. Let’s start there:
The hitters were terrible. Their batters scored 4.47 runs per game, the third-worst total in the AL, ahead of only Kansas City and Seattle.
The team was old. Only the Red Sox had an older pitching staff than the White Sox. Only Toronto, Boston, and New York had older hitters.
They suffered an injury to their best player. Carlos Quentin, who is obviously the team’s best player, missed two-thirds of the season and was ineffective in the 99 games he did play.
The Young Talent failed to improve. Alexei Ramirez, who finished second in the 2008 Rookie-of-the-Year vote, had a miserable 2009 season. Gavin Floyd went from 17-8 to 11-11, with a higher ERA (though Floyd’s strikeout rate improved). John Danks saw his ERA go up almost a full run, from 3.32 to 3.77. Brian Anderson did nothing to show he deserved the centerfield job. And after two straight years posting an ERA under 3.00, closer Bobby Jenks posted a 3.71 mark.
The Old Talent aged predictably. Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye, and Paul Konerko all hit about what one would expect, considering their careers and ages. None of them had seasons that were out of context with their careers. Same holds for the old pitchers: Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon posted ERA’s above 4.00. Buehrle, who is only 30, pitched a typical Buehrle year: more wins than loses, an ERA in the mid-3.00’s, and a no-hitter. Typical Buehrle.
No one emerged as an MVP candidate. No one had a huge year. The biggest breakthrough was at third, where Gordon Beckham, who in half a season posted .270/.347/.460 line. It’s a great line for a twenty-two year old player, but he’s not the MVP of the American League.
Take that all together. Imagine you’re a White Sox fan, and at the start of the season I tell you that your team is getting old and your offense is going to be terrible. Imagine that I tell you your best player is going to miss sixty games, and that he’ll perform miserably when he is in the lineup. Imagine I tell you that your young players will tread water, your old players will get a year older, and your team won’t have anyone close to an MVP candidate. How would you feel about the upcoming season? Would you imagine that that team would spend the season in the thick of the pennant race?
I wouldn’t, either. But that’s exactly what the White Sox did. They were in contention through August: they fell out of the race in September (and they fell quickly), but they were contenders throughout the season.
The obvious question before the board is why.
The Wizard Oz(zie)
Now, I have never particularly liked Ozzie Guillen.
Guillen, as a player, was someone sportswriters loved. Ever year you’d hear one thing or another about how great Guillen was; how much he did to help the White Sox win. He was the king of intangibles, that guy who ‘played the game right.’ No one ever wanted to point out his liabilities he had a career on-base percentage of .283, which didn’t stop the White Sox from letting him bat at the top of the order for three years. He was a lousy base runner, a guy who was successful just 61% of the time, but damned if he didn’t try. He tried to steal 277 times, and was caught 108 times. .
I thought it was ridiculous. Ozzie Guillen got more attention than Alan Trammell or Tony Fernandez or Shawn Dunston or any of a dozen shortstops who were better at playing baseball than he was. It drove me nuts. Ozzie the talker, Ozzie the hustler, Ozzie the chatterer: I’ll take the guys who could hit a lick.
I didn’t like him as a manager, either. During the 2005 season he’d often be quoted in one paper or another talking about the importance of ‘playing small-ball’ and ‘moving the runners. I wondered, sometimes, what the hell he was thinking. Why sacrifice baserunners in front of Paul Konerko? Why waste outs trying to get Scott Podsednik to second for Jermaine Dye? Why not let those guysmove the runner along?
Because I have been ambivalent about Ozzie, I have always expected his teams to fail. I thought his 2005 White Sox wouldn’t beat the Red Sox in the ALDS, and I thought they wouldn’t beat the Angels in the ALCS, and when I was wrong about that I guessed that the White Sox would get swept by the Astros in the World Series. They did the sweeping.
In 2006 I thought they’d fall out of contention, but the White Sox won 90 games, finishing five games back of the Wild Card. They had a dismal 2007, and I thought that was the end for them: with the Indians, Twins, and Tigers on the rise, I thought the South Siders would be in for a rough stretch.
But the White Sox were right back in it in 2008. As the season went on, I was sure the Twins would pull ahead, but the Twins didn’t pull ahead. A one-game playoff was announced and I thought the Twins would win that game. The White Sox won.
Last year, most sabermetrically inclined people said the White Sox were going to fail. Baseball Prospectus’s projections had the White Sox finishing 74-88, last in the AL Central. That isn’t a dig at the folks at Baseball Prospectus: I think most of us figured the Sox were going to suffer in 2009, for a lot of the reasons listed above. But, again, they surprised us: the White Sox were in the thick of the 2009 pennant race, just like they were in 2005, 2006, and 2008. The White Sox have always exceeded expectations. They have always done better than reasonably expected.
This is a hunch, but I think Ozzie Guillen is directly responsible for that success. He is, I think, the most important manager in baseball: I don’t think another manager in the game has been as responsible for their team’s success as Ozzie Guillen has been for the White Sox.
A few clarifying statements about what’s written above: first, I don’t think that managers generally have much impact on how a team plays. I think the Yankees will win 95 games with Joe Girardi as their manager, and I think the Yankees would win 95 games with Joe Pesci or Joe Camel as their manager. Okay: they’d win 100 for Pesci.
Second: I don’t think that Ozzie Guillen is the smartest manager in baseball. I’m not saying he’s a genius on par with McGraw or Tony LaRussa. Here’s his win totals over the years, compared to his Pythagorean Win totals:
|
Year
|
Wins
|
Pythagorean Wins
|
Difference
|
Team Standings
|
|
2004
|
83
|
84
|
-1
|
2nd
|
|
2005
|
99
|
91
|
+8
|
1st
|
|
2006
|
90
|
88
|
+2
|
3rd
|
|
2007
|
72
|
67
|
+5
|
4th
|
|
2008
|
89
|
89
|
0
|
1st
|
|
2009
|
79
|
80
|
-1
|
2nd
|
If he were a great tactical manager, one would expect his teams to exceed their Pythagorean win total every year. But, with the exception of 2005 and 2007, the team record is the same as one would expect.
What I mean is Ozzie Guillen does more to get the White Sox to win than any other manager. He does more for the White Sox than Terry Francona does for the Red Sox, or Ron Gardenhire does for the Twins.
I think Guillen is successful for a few reasons:
1. He was a good major league ballplayer, and he was the kind of player that other players respect, and try to emulate. Nobody buys into the stuff about ‘playing the right way’; nobody buys into the weird codes of the game of baseball, more than the athletes who play the game. There are few players (Brian Bannister) who care about sabermetrics. There are many players who think the intentional walk and sacrifice bunts and ‘creating runs’ are good, viable strategies, and Ozzie talks those strategies. There are many players who admire hustle, and no one hustled like Ozzie hustled. I think the players who play for Ozzie buy into his shtick: they believe in him.
2. He believes in his young players. I think this is his great strength as a manager: Ozzie Guillen does an excellent job of bringing up young players. He gives young hitters a position and a real chance, and he gives them the time to surprise him. He is patient with pitchers: he lets them pitch. He has confidence in his players. A hitter who has a bad month still has a job. A pitcher who gets hit hard for three starts will get a fourth start.
3. He is, somehow, an astonishingly good motivator of players. A lot of players have improved under Guillen. Konerko went from a Triple Crown line of .234/18/65 to .277/41/117 when Ozzie took over the White Sox. Same with Jermaine Dye, who was sort of wandering aimlessly for a few years before he landed in Chicago, where he turned into a helluva ballplayer. Carlos Quentin turns into an MVP candidate. Ozzie made Joe Crede better; he made Carlos Lee better. I think Scott Podsednik is about as useless a player as a man can have, but Ozzie won a World Series with him. It doesn’t always work: Ozzie utterly botched things with Nick Swisher, but overall his track record is good. Furthermore, his record in must-win games is good: he is 12-4 in the postseason, and 1-0 in sudden-death playoff games.
Can The White Sox Do It Again?
I don’t think so, no.
If the White Sox were any other team, I’d say absolutely not, but I’ve learned to avoid speaking in absolutes about the Pale Hose.
The White Sox had the ninth best record in the league last year, which is a true reflection of their ability. They got lucky because the Indians underperformed. They were unfortunate that the Tigers over-performed. There was a gap in the AL Central last year: there were no good teams, only a bunch of average teams.
The White Sox stepped into that opening. They said, “Hey, if no one else wants the Central, we’ll give it a shot.” They should be applauded for that: opportunity came a’knockin’ and they answered the door.
But I don’t think opportunity is going to keep knocking. I think the White Sox have less young talent than any other team in the Central division, and that’s a dangerous position to be in. The Royals might be incompetently run, and they might make astonishingly bad decisions, but I wouldn’t trade their roster for the Chicago’s. Who’d you rather have, Greinke, Soria, Butler, and Gordon, or Quentin, Floyd, Danks and Ramirez? I’d take the Royals.
You look at the White Sox roster and you wonder who, exactly, is going to keep these guys in contention? Who are the building blocks? Where’s the foundation?
Alexei Ramirez is twenty-seven. If he was twenty-one he’d be a franchise player, but he’s not. Twenty-seven is old for a ballplayer: Alexei might have better years, but they won’t be much better. I like Gordon Beckham, but we’re going on one hundred games in the majors: he might have a good major league career, but I’m not convinced he’s a great player.
You could do a lot worse than having Gavin Floyd and John Danks in your rotation, but I don’t know if I’d trade Jon Lester or Matt Cain for them.
The same problems that the White Sox have in the majors, they have in the minors. The average age of their AAA team is 26.7: if you’re 27 years old and still in the minors, you’re probably not going far. The average age of their AA team is 24. (One big positive: that AA team, the Birmingham Barons, is quite good: they went 71-37 last year, trounced the league).
If anyone else was managing the White Sox, I’d say they’d come in fourth. If anyone at all was managing the Royals, I’d say the White Sox were looking at last place. But Ozzie’s worked wonders for the Pale Hose; I don't know quite how he’s worked those wonders, but he has. Maybe he will again.
Prediction: Third place.
CLEVELAND INDIANS
Q: Worst Summer Ever? (Or: Will LeBron Stay?)
LeBron and the Cavs will be the Cleveland story of the spring and early summer: the Cavs have the best record in the NBA right now, and are good candidates to play in the NBA Finals in June. Win or lose, the hot topic around Lake Erie will be about whether or not LeBron stays.
I don’t think he will stay. I mean, would you? I’d take off. I imagine it’s tougher being a celebrity in Cleveland than it is in, say, New York or Los Angeles.
So how about the Indians? Will they contend this year, or is Cleveland heading for a cruel, cruel summer?
First, there are some positives with the Tribe. Let’s list ‘em:
1. Cleveland is a young team. They have the youngest hitters in baseball, and the fourth-youngest pitchers. Their batters’ average age is 27.4. Their pitchers’ average age is 27.5. That’s great news. Asdrubal Cabrera is twenty-four this year, and he’s already one of the best shortstops in baseball. Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo are twenty-seven. Michael Brantley is twenty-three. Carlos Santana, the catcher-in-waiting, is twenty-three.
2. Cleveland wasn’t that bad in 2009: Cleveland won 65 games last year, but their Pythagorean W-L record was 73-89. They weren’t as bad as they looked.
3. Manny Acta is exactly thebaseball manager that Cleveland needs: he is young and smart, and is taking the helm for a team desperate for a new direction. He was given a three-year contract by the Indians: I think he’ll get them to the playoffs before that contract expires.
Those are the positives. What are the negatives?
Well, Cleveland’s pitching is really bad. They were second-to-last in team ERA last season, with a 5.06 mark. Take Cliff Lee, who posted a 3.14 ERA in 152 innings, and that ERA jumps to 5.29. Who on the staff is going to improve that? You have Jake Westbrook, an inning eater with a career ERA of 4.31, who is a) over thirty, and b) coming off elbow surgery. That’s your Opening Day Starter. Behind him is Fausto Carmona: his 2007 season is starting to look like the weirdest outlier season of any pitcher ever. He had a 6.32 ERA last year. You have David Huff, a young lefty who posted an 11-8 record last year. His ERA was 5.61. Jeremy Sowers is twenty-seven: he made 22 starts last year and walked more batters than he struck out. Carl Pavano, had he stayed in Cleveland, would probably be the best starter on the squad: that’s not a complement to Carl Pavano.
It’s one thing to be the Reds: the Reds have a lot of question marks with their rotation, but those question marks could be positives. The Indians have a bunch of guys who, at best, are league-average pitchers. There’s no upside.
It’s going to be a long summer in Cleveland.
 
Prediction: Fourth place. And LeBron to the Knicks.
DETROIT TIGERS
Q: Where Are They Going?
Let’s look at the offseason moves in Detroit, and see what they reveal about the team:
-The Tigers lost Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson, but they acquired Max Scherzer and Yankee prospect Austin Kernes...if I’m a Tigers fan, I like that move. Jackson had a fine 2009 season (13-9, 3.62 ERA), but Scherzer, a year younger, has 240 strikeouts in 226 major league innings. Austin Jackson, in his only year at AAA, posted a .300/.354/.405 line in 132 games. Granderson posted a similar line (.290/.359/.515) during his year at AAA. The only difference? Age: Granderson was twenty-four when he posted his line, while Jackson was twenty-two.
If I were a GM, I’d rather have Scherzer than Edwin Jackson: Jackson was an All-Star last year, but my money’s on Scherzer having the longer career. The same is true for Granderson/Austin Jackson: Granderson is a ‘star’, but he’s signed for $23 million over the next three seasons, plus a $2 million dollar buyout for 2013. Granderson is a fine player, but he posted a .327 on-base percentage last year, in a hitter’s park. I’d rather have Austin Jackson, and frankly I don’t think it’s close.
-They extended Verlander to a back-loaded contract: $20 million in 2012, 2013, and 2014, but a lot less in 2010 and 2011. It’s a smart contract: Verlander is a fine pitcher to lock down for five years, and the Tigers will only be feeling the crunch after the albatross contracts to Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis, and Jeremy Bonderman come off the books.
-They signed Johnny Damon to a one-year deal, for $8 million. That’s a band-aid move…actually, it’s a move to prevent Jim Leyland from playing Ordonez enough to trigger the $15 million dollar option for 2011. Spend $8 million on Damon in 2010, and save $15 million on Ordonez in 2011.
-They let Placido Palanco sign for three years in Philly. Palanco is a fine player, but there’s no reason to pay a thirty-three year old infielder $6 million per for three seasons.
As I see it, those are all moves that communicate a team trying to rearm for the future. I hesitate to use the word ‘rebuild’ because the Tigers could very well contend in 2010. But the Tigers are burdened with terrible contracts, and for them to survive they have to get out from under their debt. As I see it, the next two years will be lean times in Detroit. By ‘lean,’ I mean that the Tigers won’t be spending money in an attempt to get ‘over the top.’ Instead they’ll tread water and wait the bad contracts out. They’re lucky: in the AL Central they might have enough talent to contend. If they do manage to stay in the race, it will be because of their young players: their future lies in the hands of Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, Austin Jackson, and Ryan Raburn.
Prediction: Second place.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
How much Talent Is Required to Overcome Stagnancy?
Every year I want to say that the Royals are going to surprise everyone.
Think about it: the Royals have Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria, and Billy Butler. What other team has three young players as talented as those three? That’s a helluva foundation to build a contender. And the Royals play in the AL Central: it’s easier to contend there than anywhere else in baseball.
So every year I think I ought to pick ‘em. Then I look at the team and I wonder what the hell the organization is doing. On the one hand you have Greinke, Soria, and Butler. On the other hand, you have:
|
|
POS
|
PA
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Yunsk. Betancourt
|
SS
|
263
|
.240
|
.269
|
.370
|
.639
|
|
Mitch Maier
|
CF
|
397
|
.243
|
.333
|
.331
|
.664
|
|
Jose Guillen
|
RF
|
312
|
.242
|
.314
|
.367
|
.681
|
|
Willie Bloomquist
|
UTIL
|
468
|
.265
|
.308
|
.355
|
.663
|
|
Mark Teahen
|
3B
|
571
|
.271
|
.325
|
.408
|
.733
|
|
Mike Jacobs
|
DH
|
478
|
.228
|
.297
|
.401
|
.698
|
These six players came to the plate 2,489 times last year, which is a little more than 40% of the Royals total plate appearances (6106 PA’s). All of their numbers are below the league’s average. The averagehitter in the American League posted a .764 OPS last year: none of the six players listed above did as well. Or came close, really.
Teahen and Jacobs are gone. That’s good. But Betancourt and Maier and Guillen and Bloomquist are all back for another season.
Here’s the thing: none of them are going to get any better. Betancourt and Maier are twenty-eight this year: they’re not on their way to becoming stars. They’re as good as they’ll ever be; they are approaching their decline. Meanwhile Bloomquist is thirty-two, and Guillen is thirty-four. They will very likely be worse in 2010.
Over the offseason, the Royals released John Buck and Miguel Olivo, and signed Jason Kendall. Apparently, they wanted the complete set of useless offensive players. He fits right in to the list above:
|
|
POS
|
PA
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
|
Jason Kendall
|
C
|
562
|
.241
|
.331
|
.305
|
.636
|
Let’s think this through:
Last year the Royals catchers combined for 31 homeruns and 101 runs batted in. Okay, so their on-base percentage was under .300…isn’t 31 homeruns by your catchers a good thing? I mean, wasn’t that the least of the Royals problems in 2009? I mean, I applaud the Royals for trying to fix something, but they start at catcher? Really?
And the solution, Jason Kendall, is laughable. Olivo and Buck, combined, posted an OPS of .781....Kendall posted an OPS that was a hundred and fifty points less than that. Buck will be twenty-nine this year, Olivo turns thirty-one…Jason Kendall will be thirty-six, and has logged 16,000 major league innings behind the plate.
I know that Buck and Olivo are terrible defensive players, but I don’t see how signing Kendall is a solution. I think it causes more problems: having Kendall for two years means you have to play Kendall…why not give the job to Brayan Pena, instead, and keep Olivo or Buck as a backup?
But yeah, it’s probably wise to give Jason Kendall a two-year contract for $6 million dollars. Because you can’t just find talent like his.
A team needs good young stars to win. The Royals have three good young stars in Greinke, Butler, and Soria. Alex Gordon might be a fourth. But the Royals are wasting those stars by surrounding them with guys like Kendall and Guillen and Bloomquist and Betancourt.
The Royals cry that they’ve put together the best team they can. Bullshit. There aren’t any middle infielders kicking around in the minors who can post an on-base percentage better than .269? There aren’t any designated hitters that could’ve done better than Jacob’s .698 OPS? Really? They really think Jason Kendall is an answer at catcher?
I don’t buy it. I’ll jump on the Royals bandwagon when they surround their stars with good players. But if they’re going to continue signing the likes of Jason Kendall, well, I ain’t biting.
Prediction: Last place. And Butler hits 40 homeruns.
MINNESOTA TWINS
Q: Are They The New Dynasty?
As close as any AL team can come to a dynasty, anyway. For the foreseeable future, the Twins are the heavy favorites in Central division.
The AL West is going to get mighty competitive over the next few years, with the Rangers, A’s, and Mariners giving the Halos a run for their money. In the AL East, the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees should spend most of the next five years battling things out. But the Central looks ripe for the taking: I think the Twins are in position to rattle off three or four AL Central titles before any of the other teams catch up.
Consider:
1) The Twins have the most young talent in the AL Central. According to Bill’s excellent Young Talent Inventory article, the Twins have more young talent in their organization than anyone except the Rays and the Rockies. The White Sox are ranked 9th among major league teams, while the Royals are 15th. Scrapping the bottom of the barrel, the Indians are 26th, and the Tigers are 28th. The Twins are way ahead of the pack category.
2) They’ve already been winning. Having young talent doesn’t mean that you’ll win now; it means that you’ll win in the future. But the Twins did win in 2009, and they tied for the lead in 2008. When their young talent matures, they’re going to start blowing the rest of the division out of the water.
2) Minnesota has a terrific fan-base. They finished 5th in the AL in attendance last year, while playing in one of the most dispiriting ballparks I’ve ever had the misfortune of suffering inside.
3) The organization is flush with cash, and smart with their money. The new stadium will bring in a lot of revenue, and I imagine that the Twins will use that money wisely. Their dealings with Mauer show this: the negotiations with Minnesota's beloved son have been extraordinarily protracted: if I’m a Twins fan, I’d be happy that their taking their time. I want the Twins to sign Mauer, but I think they’re right to take their time in the process.
4) The team is young and good. Their batting age is the second-youngest in the league, behind Cleveland. Their pitchers were the 6th youngest.
5) They are the only team in the division on an upward trend. Okay…the Royals are also on an upward trend, if only because it would be hard to decline at this point.
Let’s think about the other teams in the division: the Tigers are old and overburdened with contracts. The White Sox are old and seemingly without a foundation to build to the future. The Indians have no pitching to speak of, and the Royals have surrounded their talented core with nobody scrubs.
I think the Twins win in 2010, and unless something changes in the division, I imagine that they’ll win in 2011 and 2012, too.
Prediction: First.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Chicago, IL. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.