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Trash Sabermetrics

July 3, 2010

     As you probably know I’ve been struggling to get any analytical work done for the last two months, and you probably don’t want to hear any excuses about why, so I’ll skip that part.   But in an effort to get some momentum going here, I’m going to do a couple of pieces of trash sabermetrics which may not be of any interest to anybody except me, but which I’m going to do because. . .well, I like them, and I think this is a fun way to look at the game.

            We have to answer a question first.   What is a “full season” for a starting pitcher?

            In my youth 41 starts was a full season for a starter.   Drysdale made 41 starts in ’62, Koufax made 41 in ’65, Denny McLain made 41 in ’68 and again in ’69.   A few pitchers made 42, but. . .41 was a full season.

            I still sort of think of 41 starts as being a full season by a starting pitcher, but nobody has made 40 starts in a season since the Reagan Administration.   What is a full season now?

            It’s 35 starts.   One major league pitcher had made 35 starts in each of the last three seasons, but only one.  Verlander made 35 starts in 2009, Sabathia in 2008, Dontrelle Willis in 2007.   In 2004, 2005 and 2006 several pitchers made 35 starts, and in 2003 Roy Halladay made 36, but of course that destroyed his career.

            Anyway, 35 starts is a full season for a major league starting pitcher.   You make 35 starts, you lead the league.   The Red Sox at the moment are running a quality starting pitcher to the mound essentially every day, and, as I follow the Red Sox, I got to wondering what their record would look like if you took 35 games of whoever was on the mound.   And then I got to wondering.. ..what if we did that for all teams?   What kind of records would you get?

            I figured the record of every major league team for every group of 35 consecutive starts within a season for the last twenty years, 1990-2009.   Here’s a little of what I learned, if you can call this learnin’. .

 

Pacific Coast Angels

 

            The Angels’ best 35-game stretch of starts, over the last twenty years, occurred from April 24 to June 4, 2002, and resulted in the following record:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2002)

35

236.0

21

6

.778

219

92

86

146

76

3.28

 

            The pitchers who compiled this record were Ramon Ortiz, Scott Schoenweis, Jarrod Washburn, Aaron Sele and Kevin Appier.   On paper, this is far from the most impressive starting rotation that the Angels have had, and that is relatively unusual.   As you’ll see, it usually is the sterling rotations that compile the best records for most teams.    But these guys just pitched extremely well for a six-week stretch early in the season, which set up the Angels’ 99-win season and World Series victory.

            The worst the Angels have done in a 35-game stretch was from July 1 to August 10, 1996, when their rotation was Chuck Finley, Shawn Boskie, Mark Langston, Jason Grimsley, and a mix of a few starts each for Jim Abbott, Dennis Springer, and Ryan Hancock.   This was their record in that period:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1996)

35

197.1

7

17

.292

247

175

164

135

90

7.48

 

            That stretch ended on August 10, and Marcel Lachemann was let go on August 11. 

 

 

Houston Astros

 

            In 2005 the Houston Astros won 89 games and the National League Wild Card with a starting rotation of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Brandon Backe and Wandy Rodriguez.   From June 27 through August 3, that rotation compiled the following record—clearly better than the Angels’ best:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2005)

35

225.1

22

5

.815

198

69

55

172

74

2.20

 

            They were managed by Phil Garner.  From May 27 to the fourth of July, 2000, the Astros’ rotation was Shane Reynolds, Chris Holt, Octavio Dotel, Scott Elarton and the late Jose Lima.   This was their record:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2000)

35

208.0

6

18

.250

266

149

133

154

80

5.75

 

            Actually, the strikeout/walk ratio isn’t too bad, but the results were spotty.   The Astros won 102 games in 1998, 97 in 1999, and 93 in 2001, but just had a bad year in 2000. 

 

Oakland A’s

 

            In 2002 Barry Zito won the American League Cy Young Award with a record of 23-5, 2.75 ERA.   A person who was a member of the A’s staff that season once told me that “we regarded Zito as our number three starter.”   He wasn’t knocking Zito; Zito was really good.   Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder were really good, too.   Between July 3 and August 10, 2001, that staff compiled the following stats:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2001)

35

235.0

24

5

.828

198

73

67

166

49

2.57

 

            A 35-game stretch with a better won-lost and better ERA than Zito’s numbers in his Cy Young season.    The fourth and fifth starters during this period were Gil Heredia and the late Cory Lidle.  That was the Moneyball team.  That staff also went 22-2 during a 35-game stretch in 2002:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Winning Percentage (2002)

35

238.0

22

2

.917

190

81

70

166

53

2.65

 

 

            The 22-2 record is the best winning percentage by any starting staff over a 35-game span. 

That stretch was from August 13 to September 20, 2002, and the group also won 26 games during a separate and non-overlapping 35-game stretch in 2001:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Wins (2001)

35

219.1

26

5

.839

207

92

81

167

75

3.32

 

            The 26 wins (by the starting pitchers) are the most that I found in a 35-game stretch for any team.   That stretch ran from August 23 to the end of the season on October 7, 2001.  From April 15 to May 23, 1994, on the other hand, the A’s starting pitching didn’t do quite so well:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1994)

35

175.0

7

20

.259

206

158

144

124

111

7.41

 

            That was a Tony LaRussa team.  The starting pitchers who can brag about that, when they find the time, are Ron Darling, Bobby Witt, Todd Van Poppel, Carlos Reyes and Bob Welch.   An Oakland pitcher actually led the league in ERA that year, Steve Ontiveros.   Ontiveros didn’t make any starts during the 7-20 stretch; he moved into the rotation in late May, and improved the situation significantly.

 

 

‘Ronto

 

            In 1992 the Toronto Blue Jays won the World Series, with a starting rotation of Jack Morris (21-6), Jimmie Key (13-13), Juan Guzman (16-5), Todd Stottlemyre (12-11) and, late in the season, David Cone.      From August 26 to October 3, this was their record:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1992)

35

241.0

22

10

.687

193

86

79

167

77

2.95

 

            Three years later—August 1 to September 5, 1995—they were starting Edwin Hurtado, Paul Menhart, Juan Guzman (4-14), Pat Hentgen (10-14, 5.11 ERA), Giovanni Carrara, Al Leiter and Jeff Ware:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1995)

35

215.1

6

16

.273

227

155

132

131

119

5.52

 

            Both teams managed by Cito. 

 

 

Braves

 

            In 1992 Greg Maddux won the Cy Young Award—for the Cubs.    The Braves, however, had the best starting pitching in the National League, with Smoltz, Glavine, Steve Avery, Charlie Leibrandt and Mike Bielecki.    From June 30 to August 9, those pitchers compiled a 2.09 ERA:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1992)

35

246.0

21

4

.840

208

61

57

147

63

2.09

 

            Rating these “seasons” by the Season Score, that actually is the best performance by any starting staff in a 35-game stretch over the last 20 years.  The 61 runs allowed in 35 starts was also the fewest for any team.

            What is really amazing about the Braves, though, is that through the 1990s they had so many outstanding 35-game runs; you can almost choose any 35-game run for the Braves in that period, and their starting pitchers will go 16-9 or 18-11 or 15-7 with a 2.82 ERA or something.   They were outstanding for years on end.   If you compare the best 35-game stretch of the Braves to many other teams, they’re only a hair better.  If you compare the 100th best stretch to the 100th best stretch, they’re vastly better.

More surprising is this record, which was compiled from July 1 to August 11, 2004, with a starting staff of Russ Ortiz, John Thompson, Jaret Wright, Mike Hampton and Paul Byrd:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

2004

35

226.1

23

3

.885

205

76

73

143

74

2.90

 

 

            It was really that group that got Leo Mazzone the reputation of a genius, more than the Smoltz/Glavine/Maddux group.    Mazzone went to Baltimore in 2006, and was out of baseball by 2008, when the Braves starting rotation was Charlie Morton, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, Mike Hampton, and Chuck James.   From July 28 to September 2:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2008)

35

185.2

7

18

.280

223

134

126

114

79

6.11

 

 

Milwaukee Brewers

 

            In 1992 the Brewers got very good performances out of a no-name rotation of Bill Wegman, Jaime Navarro, Cal Eldred, Chris Bosio and Ricky Bones: 

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1992)

35

240.2

20

8

.714

214

81

78

141

51

2.92

 

            August 20 to September 25, managed by Phil Garner.   Ten years later, they were starting Ben Sheets, Glendon Rusch, Ruben Quevedo, Jamey Wright and Jose Cabrera:

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2002)

35

197.2

8

24

.250

248

151

143

121

88

6.51

 

            That was from July 5 to August 15, managed by Jerry Royster. 

 

 

St. Louis Cardinals

 

            In 2004 the St. Louis Cardinals made it to the World Series with Matt Morris, Woody Williams, Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan and Jason Marquis making all but eight of the 162 starts:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2004)

35

228.0

21

3

.875

204

86

77

169

53

3.04

 

            That stretch was from August 1 to September 7.    In 1993 the Cardinals also got a 23-8 stretch out of Joe Magrane, Rene Arocha, Donovan Osborne, Bob Tewksbury and Rheal Cormier:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1993

35

217.1

23

8

.742

226

97

88

109

39

3.64

 

            Those guys threw strikes.   No pitcher on that team issued more than 54 walks on the season, and the 54 was by a reliever/spot starter.   That was the Joe Torre era in St. Louis. . . and who can forget the Cardinals’ 1995 rotation of Mark Petkovsek, Tom Urbani, John Frascatore, Vicente Palacios, Allen Watson, Ken Hill, and the over-the-hill Danny Jackson:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1995)

35

186.1

7

19

.269

245

139

126

99

68

6.09

 

            May 21 to June 28.   Joe Torre quit or got fired, I forget which, in the middle of that run.  That team was led in wins for the season by a reliever, Rich DeLucia, who was 8-7. 

 

 

Chicago Cubs

 

            In 1995 the Chicago Cubs, managed by Jim Riggleman, finished just 73-71—but from April 26 to June 4, they had a very nice run:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best

35

223.0

19

7

.731

181

89

78

156

62

3.15

 

 

            Jim Bullinger, Steve Trachsel, Kevin Foster, Jaime Navarro and Frank Castillo.   On June 4, at the end of this run, the Cubs were tied for first, at 22-13.   One week later they were five and a half games out.   From May 26 to July 1, the same staff was 9-15 with a 4.25 ERA.  

            Although the Cubs have had some decent starting staffs in recent years with a ton of strikeouts, they have never had a 35-game stretch in which their starting pitchers won 20 games.   They’re one of three franchises that hasn’t.  But in 1992, under the very underrated Jim Lefebvre, the Cubs had a 35-game stretch in which the ERA of their starting pitchers was 2.01:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

ERA Champs (1992)

35

228.2

13

10

.565

180

65

51

136

81

2.01

 

            The 2.01 ERA is the best for any staff during the two decades, and the 51 earned runs is tied for the fewest earned runs given up—even though the innings count is pretty high.   That stretch of games was from June 28 to August 7, and the starting pitchers were Mike Morgan, Shawn Boskie, Frank Castillo, Danny Jackson and Greg Maddux, with three starts from Mike Harkey and two from Jeff Robinson, but don’t ask me which Jeff Robinson.

The Cubbies started that stretch seven games out of first place—and closed it out seven and a half games back.   During the 35 games the Cubs’ offense was as bad as their pitching was brilliant.  They scored just 118 runs, and went just 18-17.   They may have had too many light-hitting glove wizards in the lineup at the same time—Joe Girardi, Steve Buechele, Rey Sanchez, Doug Dascenzo.    Somebody’s got to hit.

Still, the pitching staff was impressive, particularly if we contrast it with Jim Riggleman’s last Chicago pitching staff, in 1999:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst ERA (1999)

35

169.0

7

20

.259

264

166

152

108

61

8.09

 

Steve Trachsel, Jon Lieber, Kevin Tapani, Terry Mulholland and Kyle Farnsworth—all guys who had long major league careers; also a couple of starts from Dan Serafini, who didn’t.   June 9 to July 19, 1999; the 8.09 ERA is the worst of any major league team in the study other than the Rockies, who had special circumstances.

That’s the worst ERA, but Don Baylor took over the team the next year, and had a stretch that was perhaps even uglier:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst Overall (2000)

35

185.2

3

21

.125

211

161

151

154

101

7.32

 

August 18 to September 23; Kerry Wood, Jon Lieber, Ruben Quevedo, Daniel Garibay, and Kevin Tapani.

 

 

Tampa Bay Rays/Devil Rays

 

The Rays also have never had a 20-win stretch from their starting pitchers, either, but that’s perhaps less surprising.   The best stretch they have ever had was probably earlier this year, but inasmuch as that is not in my data base yet, the best I have is July 21 to August 28, 2008:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2008)

35

220.2

17

8

.680

214

86

86

164

75

3.51

 

Shields, Garza, Sonnenstine, Edwin Jackson and Scott Kazmir; I don’t even have to look that one up.    This was notably better than their 2001 starting rotation of Albie Lopez, Ryan Rupe, Bryan Rekar, Paul Wilson and Tanyon Sturtze:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2001)

35

190.0

5

22

.185

242

163

153

109

87

7.25

 

April 27 to June 5.   Joe Kennedy made his major league debut on June 6, which ended this rolling catastrophe. 

 

 

Arizona D’Backs

 

The Diamondbacks hold all kinds of records for best and worst performance by starting pitchers over a 35-game stretch.   The Snakes’ best 35-game performance by starting pitchers was from July 22 to August 28, 2002:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2002)

35

251.1

17

5

.773

204

67

64

258

53

2.29

 

Schilling and the Big Unit, of course, plus Miguel Batista, Rick Helling and Brian Anderson.    The 258 strikeouts in 35 starts is almost a record; the record is 264, by the same staff but the dates are July 20-August 26 or July 21-August 27:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Strikeout Record (2002)

35

247.2

17

4

.810

205

70

68

264

58

2.47

 

That outfit also had a very impressive stretch at exactly the same point in the calendar in 1999, with Johnson but without Schilling:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1999

35

237.1

22

7

.759

204

79

72

194

75

2.73

 

Randy Johnson, Omar Daal, Todd Stottlemyre, Brian Anderson, Andy Benes and Armando Reynoso, July 20 to August 27, 1999.   The Diamondbacks won 100 games in 1999, after having won only 65 in their first season, 1998.   From April 1 to May 10, 1998, their starting pitchers compiled this record:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1998

35

206.1

3

19

.136

223

130

126

124

65

5.50

 

We’ll let the pitchers go un-named because they were just an expansion team and didn’t know any better.   That looks bad until you contrast it with this stretch of D-Back duds, from 2004:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst, Most Losses (2004)

35

193.1

3

27

.100

241

164

148

143

85

6.89

 

The 27 losses is the most that I found.  Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Casey Fossum, Lance Cormier and Edgar Gonzalez, July 6 to August 14, 2004.  Al Pedrique was managing them at that time; Bob Brenly had been fired for leading them to a 29-50 record through July 1.   Pedrique took over and skippered them to a fine 22-61 log for the rest of the season.  Ouch. 

 

 

Los Angeles Dodgers

 

The best I have from the Dodgers is in 2003, April 17 to May 25:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best  (2003)

35

232.2

20

6

.769

176

77

73

218

90

2.82

 

Darren Dreifort, Hideo Nomo, Kevin Brown, Odalis Perez and Kazuhisa Ishii.  The Dodgers were 30-20 on May 25.   Dreifort got hurt, Alan Ashby stepped into that slot and was awful, and the Dodgers didn’t make the playoffs.

You could ask why I only went back to 1990, but, apart from the work involved, a 35-game stretch doesn’t represent a full season before about 1990.   I’d love to run the numbers for the Dodgers of the 1960s, when they had three Hall of Famers in their rotation with other very good pitchers, but a full season then would be 41 games.   I think we might find 41-game stretches in which teams got 30 wins from their starting pitchers, and we would certainly find stretches with 1.70 ERAs.   We might get 300 strikeouts.   Another time.

The fewest hits given up by any staff in any 35-game stretch was 153, by the Dodgers in 2003 (April 3 to May 11)—and again in 2009:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Fewest Hits Allowed (2003)

35

223.2

18

10

.643

153

69

63

193

87

2.54

Fewest Hits Allowed (2003)

35

197.0

14

6

.700

153

84

80

177

93

3.65

 

Think about it.   Four hits allowed per game by your starting pitchers?  That’s pretty good.   The worst the Dodgers have done was May 30 to July 8, 1999:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1999)

35

209.0

7

20

.259

248

157

149

147

70

6.42

 

Darren Dreifort, Kevin Brown, Carlos Perez, Chan Ho Park and Ismael Valdes. 

 

 

 

Montreal Expos (Closed)

 

The Expos’ best record was June 6 to July 16, 1997:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1997)

35

253.0

18

8

.692

189

77

75

214

76

2.67

 

Jim Bullinger, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Perez, Dustin Hermanson, Jeff Juden Verbotin.   The devil got even with them three years later:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2000)

35

181.0

5

19

.208

241

150

134

118

93

6.66

 

Most everybody got a start or two in there—Mike Johnson, Mike Thurman, Trey Moore, Tony Armas Jr., Scott Downs, Felipe Lira, Julio Santana.   Javier Vazquez and Dustin Hermanson were the stable parts of the rotation for the Expos then; beyond them there was a feast of opportunity.   Both teams managed by Felipe Alou. 

 

 

San Francisco Giants

 

The Giants’ best run was June 5 to July 16, 1993:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1993)

35

225.0

22

7

.759

216

83

78

132

49

3.12

 

Bill Swift, John Burkett, Bud Black, Trevor Wilson and Bryan Hickerson, one start each from Greg Brummet and the worst TV analyst in baseball history, Jeff Brantley.   Swift and Burkett were the stars of the team, winning 43 games between them.  That was Dusty Baker’s first year in San Francisco.  The Giants won 103 games, coming off of two dismal seasons under Roger Craig.  The Giants hit bottom in 2005:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2005)

35

180.2

7

18

.280

238

139

131

113

91

6.53

 

May 27 to July 4; Brad Hennessey, Noah Lowrey, Brett Tomko, Jason Schmidt and Kirk Rueter, managed by Felipe Alou. 

 

Cleveland Indians

 

Cleveland’s best run of games was in 2005, with Sabathia and Cliff Lee:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best  (2005)

35

234.2

22

5

.815

202

80

73

154

61

2.80

 

Kevin Millwood, Scott Elarton and Jake Westbrook backing them up; those five starters made 157 starts for the Indians that year.  The run was August 14 to September 21.  The Indians also had a 20-3 run in 1994.   They hit bottom in 2009, in the last 35 games of the season:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst  (2009)

35

183.0

6

23

.207

243

138

127

112

87

6.25

 

Fausto Carmona, Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey, Justin Masterson, David Huff and Carlos Carrasco.   Both teams managed by Eric Wedge. 

 

 

Seattle Mariners

 

Surprisingly, the M’s best stretch of starts was not in 2001, when the Mariners won 116 games.  It was in 2003:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2001)

35

248.1

22

9

.710

186

75

73

153

72

2.65

 

Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche, Freddy Garcia, Ryan Franklin and Joel Pineiro, May 25 to July 2, 2003.    Managed by Bob Melvin.   In 1990 a Mariners’ starting staff pitched 262 2/3 innings in 35 starts:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Innings Record (1990)

35

262.2

14

11

.560

182

79

70

179

98

2.40

 

They pitched 262.2 innings with a 2.40 ERA, so that’s really a very impressive stretch of games.   Randy Johnson, Brian Holman, Erik Hanson, Matt Young and Bill Swift, managed by Jim Lefebvre.  The Mariners’ shipwreck was early in the 2008 season:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2008)

35

189.1

5

22

.185

237

151

142

128

75

6.75

 

April 27 to June 4, 2008; Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Erik Bedard and King Felix.   John McLaren was managing them at that time; he was replaced not long after this stretch of games.

 

Florida Marlins

 

July 23 to August 27, 2005:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2005)

35

218.1

20

9

.690

201

73

65

163

67

2.68

 

Josh Beckett, A. J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, Brian Moehler, Ismael Valdez and Jason Vargas, managed by Trader Jack.  Their worst stretch of games was just two years later:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst  (2007)

35

168.2

4

20

.167

254

165

149

124

72

7.95

 

You know, that’s not good.   Even by the standards of other team’s bad stretches, that’s not good—4-20 with a 7.95 ERA.   Dontrelle Willis was still there, but not getting anybody out; he was joined by Scott Olsen, Daniel Barone, Chris Seddon, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Rick VanderHurk.     August 16 to September 22, 2007, managed by Fredi Gonzalez. 

 

Mets

 

            As big-name starting rotations go, Dwight Gooden, David Cone, Frank Viola, Sid Fernandez and Bobby Ojeda is up there.

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1990)

35

239.2

21

5

.808

207

79

70

213

80

2.63

 

            June 16 to July 26, under Bud Harrelson.    Three years later the franchise was in turmoil, as documented in The Worst Team Money Could Buy:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1993

35

222.2

6

23

.207

258

138

128

149

47

5.17

 

Gooden, Tanana, Saberhagen, Pete Schourek and Anthony Young, June 4 to July 9 under Dallas Green.   But ten years later they were even worse:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2003)

35

188.1

8

20

.286

239

148

139

108

87

6.64

 

June 18 to July 27; Aaron Heilmann, Tom Glavine, Jae Weong Seo, Steve Trachsel, Al Leiter and Mickey Mouse, managed by Art Howe (who I think was also the manager of the St. Louis team that had Who on First, What on Second, and Idaknow on third.)

 

Nationals

 

The Nationals’ history is short, but they had a good stretch in 2005:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2005)

35

211.0

16

5

.762

204

80

75

140

73

3.20

 

May 28 to July 5; Esteban Loaiza, Livan Hernandez, John Patterson, Tony Armas Jr., a few starts from Tomo Ohka and Ryan Drese.  Their worst stretch was the next year:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2006)

35

168.1

6

16

.273

212

145

135

82

71

7.22

 

Which will always be their worst, because now that Strasburg is here the tough times are behind them.    August 16 to September 23; Billy Traber, Jason Bergmann, Livan, Armas, Ramon Ortiz, and Pedro Astacio.

 

 

Orioles

 

No, it only seems like twenty years; the Orioles were very good through 1990s.    In 1997 they were managed by Davey Johnson, and were starting Jimmy Key, Shawn Boskie, Scott Erickson, Scott Kamienecki, Mike Mussina and Rocky Coppinger.   OK, maybe it doesn’t sound like much, but from April 13 to May 21 those guys were 22-5:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1997)

35

222.2

22

5

.815

190

90

83

144

81

3.35

 

Ten years later the Orioles had one good starter, Erik Bedard, whose season was ended by injury on August 26.   They spent September doing tryouts—which everybody failed:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2007)

35

161.0

3

19

.136

221

146

142

119

88

7.94

 

That stretch ran from August 25 until the season ended on September 30, and included Radhames Liz (4 starts), Erik Bedard (1 start), Daniel Cabrera (7 starts), Steve Trachsel (1 start), Jeremy Guthrie (5 starts), Garrett Olson (2 starts), Kurt Birkins (2 starts), Jon Leicester (5 starts), Victor Santos (3 starts), Brian Burres (3 starts), and Victor Zambrano (2 start).  They had more Victors than Victories.  Tampa Bay beat Radhames Liz, 17-2.   Boston beat Garrett Olson, 10-0.  The Angels beat Daniel Cabrera, 18-6.  The Yankees beat Jon Leicester, 12-0.   The Blue Jays beat Brian Burres, 11-4.    Kirt Birkens gave up six runs in one of his starts without getting anybody out.    Victor Zambrano gave up eight runs in one start, and got two men out.   It was memorable. 

 

San Diego Padres

 

The Padres’ best stretch of games by their starting pitchers ran from May 6 to June 14, 2007, with a rotation of Greg Maddux, Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Justin Germano and David Wells:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2007)

35

222.0

18

4

.818

190

70

63

157

49

2.55

 

Germano, claimed on waivers from the Phillies in the spring of 2007 and activated on May 8, made 7 starts in this stretch and was 5-0 with a 2.36 ERA.    In the rest of his career he was 3-16 with an ERA about 6.00.

The Padres did have some stretches, in June and July of 1998, in which their starting pitchers won 20 games out of 35 starts.    The worst stretch for Padre Pitching was April 27 to June 3, 2003:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2003)

35

190.2

2

19

.095

219

150

142

137

87

6.70

 

That was another sorting-out process.   The Padres had Peavy, Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence, and they gave starts in there to Carlton Loewer, Brian Tollberg, Randy Keisler, Roger Deago, Mike Bynum, Clay Condry, and Oliver Perez, just trying to find fourth and fifth starters.   They didn’t find them, either; they signed David Wells and Ismael Valdez that winter to stabilize the rotation.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

 

The Phillies in 1993, managed by Jim Fregosi, won 97 games and lost the World Series to Joe Carter’s walk-off homer.    From May 8 to June 14, a rotation of Terry Mulholland, Curt Schilling, Danny Jackson, Tommy Greene and Ben Rivera was 22-4:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1993)

35

254.0

22

4

.846

215

87

79

175

72

2.80

 

By 1997, under Terry Francona, they still had Schilling, but not much else:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1997 (Most Losses)

35

189.2

2

22

.083

224

146

133

157

91

6.31

1997 (Worst Overall)

35

187.0

2

21

.087

223

149

137

162

96

6.59

 

The .083 winning percentage from May 28 to July 6 was the worst 35-game winning percentage in the study, and the overall performance didn’t get any better if you looked at it from May 30 to July 10.   Schilling, Mark Leiter, Matt Beech, Garrett Stephenson, and two or three starts each from Edgar Ramos, Scott Ruffcorn, Ryan Nye and Calvin Maduro.   Schilling in 1997 made 35 starts, struck out 319 batters and was 17-11, but the rest of the rotation was. . .really not good.   There are other teams that got only two wins from their starting pitching in 35-game stretches, but nobody else was 2-22. 

 

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

 

From July 29 to September 5, 1992, the Pirates had a rotation of Doug Drabek, Bob Walk, Tim Wakefield, Zane Smith and the ubiquitous Danny Jackson, who has now shown up on four of these lists:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1992)

35

243.1

17

6

.739

223

83

72

133

72

2.66

 

            The Pirates also had twenty-win stretches in both 1990 and 1991.   Their least enjoyable baseball experience was from June 15 to July 24, 2006:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2006)

35

183.0

4

20

.167

235

148

136

114

93

6.69

 

            Victor Santos, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm and some other people who couldn’t pitch, either.  Jim Tracy was managing them.

 

Texas Rangers

            In 1990, although the Texas Rangers finished just 83-79, they had more than 1100 career wins in their starting rotation—Nolan Ryan (career record of 324-292), Jamie Moyer (258-195), Charlie Hough (216-216), Kevin Brown (211-144) and Bobby Witt (142-157).    I think that may be the most career wins ever in a starting rotation—1,148 so far—and probably the most losses as well (1,104).    Kenny Rogers was on that team—219 more wins there—and made three starts that year, although he didn’t make any during the June 26-August 4 interim when the team pitched their best ball:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1990)

35

239.0

19

7

.731

217

101

88

183

102

3.31

 

            The Rangers have had many 20-win stretches since 1990, although in several cases with high ERAs.    In 1991, with Juan Guzman replacing Charlie Hough in the rotation, the Rangers issued 128 walks in a 35-game stretch—but still had a winning record:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Most Walks (1991)

35

203.1

13

11

.542

203

112

105

140

128

4.65

 

            Here’s an interesting one.   In 1999 the Rangers won 95 games and walked away with the American League West, winning by eight full, despite a 35-game stretch in which the ERA of their starting pitchers was 7.35:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1999

35

186.0

8

14

.364

241

159

152

97

90

7.35

 

            Rick Helling, Aaron Sele, Mike Morgan, John Burkett, Esteban Loaiza and Mark Clark, May 7 to June 15.  But that’s not half-bad compared to a stretch they had in 2007:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2007)

35

165.0

6

19

.240

238

158

146

98

82

7.96

 

May 6 to June 13, and a cast of thousands contributing—Kameron Loe, Mike Wood, Robinson Tejeda, Brandon McCarthy, Vicente Padilla, Kevin Millwood, John Koronka, John Rheinecker.   Are these even real names?  

In 1997 a Rangers’ staff whose members shall remain nameless gave up 282 hits in 35 starts:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Most Hits Allowed (1997)

35

217.1

8

19

.296

282

150

128

119

74

5.30

 

 

 

Boston Red Sox

 

The Boston Red Sox in 1990, led by Roger Clemens and Mike Boddicker, had one of the best 35-game stretches of any team:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1990)

35

246.1

23

6

.793

209

69

61

172

81

2.23

 

July 27 to September 2, 1990; Joe Morgan managing.   Morgan magic was 1988.  These were Roger Clemens’ eight starts during that stretch, actually including one just before it started:

 

 

 

 

 

IP

H

R

ER

BB

SO

July

25

 

9

3

0

0

1

9

July

30

 

9

9

0

0

0

8

August

4

 

8.2

9

1

1

2

8

August

9

 

6.2

8

2

2

0

6

August

14

 

9

5

0

0

1

11

August

19

 

7

8

1

1

0

8

August

25

 

9

5

0

0

2

6

August

30

 

9

8

2

2

0

9

 

Clemens pitched 67 and a third innings, striking out 65 batters, walking 6, giving up 6 runs for an 8-0 record, 0.80 ERA.   Helping out Clemens and Boddicker were Tom Bolton, Dana Kiecker, Wes Gardner and Greg Harris.   The Sox’ worst stretch was May 24 to July 1, 1994:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1994)

35

186.0

5

18

.217

235

146

136

136

84

6.58

 

Joining Clemens in 1994 were Aaron Sele, Joe Hesketh, Danny Darwin and Gar Finnvold.   Clemens actually was pretty good in that stretch, too.  In 1999 the Red Sox had a stretch in which their starting pitchers walked less than one batter per start:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Fewest Walks (1999)

35

183.0

13

13

.500

234

125

111

108

33

5.46

 

That’s not only the fewest walks issued in the study, it’s the fewest by far.   The second-fewest was by that Cardinal staff that went 23-8 in 1993.  Bret Saberhagen, Pedro Martinez, Mark Portugal, Brian Rose and Jin Ho Cho.

 

 

Cincinnati Reds

 

April 30 to June 8, 1990:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1990)

35

226.0

15

7

.682

179

68

63

121

75

2.51

 

Lou Piniella’s Reds, of course, won the World Series that year, the bullpen—the Nasty Boys—getting the lion’s share of the credit.   Tom Browning, Jose Rijo, Jack Armstrong, Ron Robinson, and the ubiquitous Danny Jackson.   The Reds’ worst performance was in 2005:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2005)

35

189.0

7

20

.259

224

153

144

134

76

6.86

 

May 31 to July 5, 2005; Manager Dave Miley was fired in the middle of that.  There are a number of pitchers on this list that I couldn’t pick out of a police lineup—Matt Belisle, Brandon Clausen, Elizardo Ramirez.   I could identify, I think, Ramon Ortiz, Eric Milton and Aaron Harang.

 

 

Colorado Rockies

 

The Rockies’ best starting pitcher performance was last year, from June 2 to July 9:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2009)

35

231.2

22

6

.786

220

90

87

161

71

3.38

 

Ubaldo, de la Rosa, Cook, Hammel and Jason Marquis.   Because of the park they play in, or the altitude at which the park rests, the Rockies have had some very high ERAs over the years.   The highest was in 1999:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Highest ERA (1999)

35

183.1

12

17

.414

257

181

172

126

93

8.44

 

The Rockies’ 8.44 starter ERA from June 6 to July 15, 1999 was the highest for any team in the last twenty years, but they won some games in there.   Their overall performance was worse from June 24 to July 29, same year (overlapping games):

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1999)

35

180.2

8

22

.267

237

170

161

105

100

8.02

 

Pedro Astacio, Darryl Kile, Brian Bohanon, Bobby Jones and Roberto Ramirez.    The record for runs allowed in a 35-game stretch was 182 (same team, almost the same games):

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Runs Allowed (1999)

35

186.1

12

16

.429

264

182

173

129

97

8.36

 

And the record for earned runs is 173, same team, same games. 

 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

The Royals had their best stretch of starting pitching in 1991, with two pieces left over from the 1985 championship team—Bret Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza—surrounded by Mike Boddicker, Kevin Appier, Storm Davis and Luis Aquino:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1991)

35

238.1

17

7

.708

202

83

71

161

60

2.68

 

            Hal McRae was managing them then.  The Royals had pitching after they had no offense, in the mid-1990s—but the Royals in the last twenty years have never had a 35-game stretch in which their starting pitchers won 20 games.  They’re one of three teams that hasn’t, the others being the Cubs and Rays.  The Royals, in fact, have only one stretch of games in those 20 years in which the starting pitchers have won 19 games (19-12). 

            In 2005 the Royals had a 2-20 stretch: 

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

2005 (Tied for fewest wins)

35

185.2

2

20

.091

234

137

133

94

80

6.45

 

But they managed to get even worse in 2006:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (2006)

35

165.1

4

19

.174

217

145

136

69

79

7.40

 

That was Buddy Bell’s team, and the stretch was April 27 to June 4.   Starting pitchers in that period were Mark Redman, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton, Runelvys Hernandez, Jeremy Affeldt and Denny Bautista.

 

Detroit Tigers

 

            2006 was a down year for the Royals, a good year for the Tigers with Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Zach Miner:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2006)

35

228.0

20

4

.833

204

79

75

180

66

2.96

 

            June 2 to July 13.

            Now, the 1996 Tigers.   The starting pitching of the 1996 Tigers—also managed by Buddy Bell--was truly phenomenal.   The Tigers’ offense scored 783 runs, not a bad total.   It was a high-run league; but the Tigers’ offense was not the worst in the league, nor the second-worst, nor the third-worst.   Tiger Stadium was not a hitter’s haven; in fact, the park run factor in 1996 was less than 1.00.  

            From April 27 to June 6, Tigers’ starting pitchers compiled the following record:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1996)

35

177.0

4

24

.143

233

165

147

90

91

7.47

 

            Considering the won-lost record, the ERA and the strikeout/walk ratio, this was the worst performance by any major league team’s starting pitchers in any 35-game stretch over the last twenty years.

            But this fails to describe how bad the 1996 Tigers’ pitching really was.   It’s not like they had good stretches in there.   This was their best stretch of games, anytime during the season:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1996

35

207.0

10

13

.435

233

138

125

125

109

5.43

 

            That run—from June 30 to August 9—was the best that it got.   In the 35 games that followed the 4-24 stretch with a 7.47 ERA, their record improved to 12-16, but their ERA was 6.32.  In the last 35 games of the season, they were 3-19 with a 6.61 ERA.

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1996 (End of Season)

35

173.0

3

19

.136

211

140

127

96

88

6.61

 

            That stretch doesn’t overlap with the 4-24 stretch; in fact, it was months apart.   From the beginning of the season to the end, that teams’ starting pitching was just absolutely horrific.   Sixteen pitchers started games for them.   These were their records.

 

NAME

W

L

PCT

G

GS

IP

SO

BB

ERA

Felipe Lira

6

14

.300

32

32

194.2

113

66

5.22

Omar Olivares

7

11

.389

25

25

160.0

81

75

4.89

Brian Williams

3

10

.231

40

17

121.0

72

85

6.77

Greg Gohr

4

8

.333

17

16

91.2

60

34

7.17

Greg Keagle

3

6

.333

26

6

87.2

70

68

7.39

A.J. Sager

4

5

.444

22

9

79.0

52

29

5.01

Jose Lima

5

6

.455

39

4

72.2

59

22

5.70

Justin Thompson

1

6

.143

11

11

59.0

44

31

4.58

C.J. Nitkowski

2

3

.400

11

8

45.2

36

38

8.08

Scott Aldred

0

4

.000

11

8

43.1

36

26

9.35

Todd Van Poppel

2

4

.333

9

9

36.1

16

29

11.39

Clint Sodowsky

1

3

.250

7

7

24.1

9

20

11.84

Tom Urbani

2

2

.500

16

2

23.2

20

14

8.37

Trever Miller

0

4

.000

5

4

16.2

8

9

9.18

Brian Moehler

0

1

.000

2

2

10.1

2

8

4.35

John Farrell

0

2

.000

2

2

6.1

0

5

14.21

 

            On the season they allowed 1,103 runs—697 by the starting pitchers, who had a 6.64 ERA, and 406 by the bullpen, who came in at 5.97.

            In 1995 what was basically the same staff had a 35-game stretch in which they pitched only 149.2 innings—the fewest innings recorded by a starting staff in any 35-game stretch:

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Fewest Innings (1995)

35

149.2

8

16

.333

155

108

93

82

77

5.59

 

            In 1991 Tiger starting pitchers struck out only 57 batters in a 35-game span:

 

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Fewest Strikeouts (1991)

35

195.1

9

16

.360

233

111

105

57

82

4.84

 

 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

            The Twins and Tigers in 2006 had a great pennant race.   The Tigers got off to a hot start, played well all year, and as of August 7 the Twins were in third place, ten and a half games behind.  The Tigers played poorly over the last six weeks, however, and the Twins caught them in the closing days of the season.

            Both the Twins and the Tigers had their best starting pitching stretches of the last twenty years in 2006—and both at about the same part of the season.   From June 8 to July 19, the Twins starting pitchers compiled the following record:

 

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (2006)

35

219.2

21

5

.808

191

81

72

181

39

2.95

 

            Johan Santana, Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser.   In their World Championship season in 1991, however, the Twins had a 35-game stretch which was really just as good:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

1991 (Also very good)

35

237.1

21

7

.750

224

86

72

131

57

2.73

           

            Jack Morris, Kevin Tapani, Scott Erickson, Allan Anderson and Mark Guthrie, May 28 to July 3.  Erickson and Tapani were still there in 1995, when the Twins hit rock bottom:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1995)

35

173.2

6

21

.222

236

157

147

98

70

7.62

 

            By 1995 Erickson and Tapani had been joined by Brad Radke, Pat Mahomes and LaTroy Hawkins.

 

Chicago White Sox

 

            The White Sox, of course, won the World Series in 2005, and you would probably suppose that that was when they had their best starting pitching.   Your supposition would be correct.   Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland and El Duque, April 4 to May 12:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

2005 (Best)

35

235.2

21

4

.840

203

87

81

142

74

3.09

 

And the White Sox also had a comparable span with the Jack McDowell/Alex Fernandez rotation in 1993.   Their worst stretch was August 6 to September 10, 1999:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1999)

35

191.0

6

20

.231

265

171

157

115

87

7.40

 

            Mike Sirotka, James Baldwin, Jim Parque, Jaime Navarro and John Snyder.  

 

 

New York Yankees

 

            In 1998, when the Yankees won 114 games, they had many very impressive stretches of games.   The most impressive was from June 1 to July 12:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Best (1998)

35

244.0

22

5

.815

194

78

70

204

70

2.58

 

            The Davids Cone and Wells, Andy Pettitte, Hideki Irabu and El Duque, with spot starts from Ramiro Mendoza.    The ’98 Yankees also had stretches in which their starting pitching went 24-4 and 23-3 (overlapping with this period.)

            The worst the Yankees have done was back in the Stump Merrill days, 1991:

 

Group

GS

IP

W

L

WPct

H

R

ER

SO

BB

ERA

Worst (1991)

35

181.2

9

17

.346

230

145

140

132

62

6.94

 

 

 

            I’m certain this is overkill, but. . .as I say, I like it.   Why?

            One of the fun things about baseball is the season records—but there are a limited number of Cy Young seasons.  There are a limited number of real-life pitchers who have gone 8-24.   Since 1990, that number is zero. I enjoy being able to create season records which are real records, objectively verifiable by other people, but which have the look and feel of Cy Young records, or of historically awful seasons.   It makes impressive what would otherwise slip away un-noticed.   It’s trash sabermetrics, but it stirs the memory pot, and I like it. 

 
 

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

hotstatrat
Thumbs up. (Trash sabermetrics deserve trash reviews, no?)
2:08 PM Jul 5th
 
Kev
As Jean Brodie said: "For those who like that sort of thing, that is the sort of thing they like." I like it, too--nice work.
11:46 AM Jul 5th
 
hotstatrat
Thumbs up. (Trash sabermetrics deserve trash reviews, no?)
9:35 AM Jul 5th
 
110phil
Fun piece, enjoyed it! BTW, your Mariners "best" line says 2001 when it should say 2003.
10:40 PM Jul 3rd
 
3for3
I love the 'trash' sabermetrics. This stuff is supposed to be fun, and it is.
6:29 PM Jul 3rd
 
 
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