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Random and Responsive Performance by Starting Pitchers Day Four--Data

By Bill James

July 12, 2010

This chart gives the Effective Runs Allowed Rates for all pitchers with 100 or more starts in the Retrosheet data, and notes some pitchers who are either in the black (meaning that their Effective Runs Allowed Rate is markedly better than their basic Runs Allowed Rate) or in the red (meaning that it is worse.)

						Effective
						Runs
				Team	Team	Allowed
Rank	First	Last	Starts	Wins	Losses	Rate	Note
1	Whitey	Ford	423	284	139	2.84	GOOD
2	Bob	Gibson	480	285	195	2.85	GOOD
3	Jim	Palmer	521	325	196	2.90
4	Don	Gullett	185	122	63	3.06	GOOD
5	Sandy	Koufax	314	206	108	3.09
6	Luis	Tiant	484	288	196	3.14	GOOD
7	Johan	Santana	233	153	80	3.16
8	Mike	Garcia	199	125	74	3.21
9	Chien-Ming	Wang	104	69	35	3.21
10	Warren	Spahn	425	259	166	3.23

11	Tom	Seaver	647	369	278	3.27
12	Jim	Maloney	261	156	105	3.27
13	Felix	Hernandez	138	80	58	3.28	GOOD
14	Pedro	Martinez	410	253	157	3.29
15	Ferguson	Jenkins	593	337	256	3.30	GOOD
16	Gary	Nolan	247	144	103	3.32
17	Jack	Harshman	153	83	70	3.32	GOOD
18	Juan	Marichal	457	280	177	3.33
19	Rich	Harden	127	80	47	3.34
20	Mike	Cuellar	377	217	160	3.35

21	Bob	Lemon	187	118	69	3.35	GOOD
22	Bob	Veale	240	137	103	3.35
23	Greg	Maddux	740	431	309	3.35
24	Fritz	Peterson	328	170	158	3.37	GOOD
25	Randy	Johnson	603	371	232	3.37
26	Denny	McLain	263	153	110	3.37
27	Scott	Baker	109	62	47	3.38
28	Vida	Blue	473	267	206	3.40
29	John	Tudor	263	153	110	3.40
30	Billy	Pierce	339	200	139	3.41

31	Dave	McNally	396	236	160	3.41
32	Andy	Messersmith	295	162	133	3.42
33	Dennis	Leonard	302	173	129	3.43	GOOD
34	Tom	Phoebus	149	84	65	3.43
35	Johnny	Antonelli	225	123	102	3.44
36	Bobby	Shantz	112	65	47	3.45
37	Nolan	Ryan	773	405	368	3.45
38	Tim	Hudson	310	197	113	3.45
39	Bob	Hendley	121	67	54	3.46	GOOD
40	Ron	Guidry	323	201	122	3.48

41	Milt	Pappas	461	256	205	3.48
42	Claude	Osteen	487	254	233	3.49
43	Don	Drysdale	463	253	210	3.49
44	Steve	Carlton	709	404	305	3.49
45	Joe	Horlen	290	143	147	3.50
46	Mel	Stottlemyre	354	187	167	3.51
47	Ross	Grimsley	293	167	126	3.51	GOOD
48	Tom	Browning	299	173	126	3.52	GOOD
49	Roger	Clemens	706	433	273	3.52
50	John	Candelaria	356	214	142	3.53

51	Gary	Peters	286	160	126	3.54
52	Pat	Jarvis	160	84	76	3.54
53	Curt	Schilling	436	258	178	3.55
54	Roy	Oswalt	271	167	104	3.55
55	Kirk	McCaskill	242	128	114	3.55	GOOD
56	Kevin	Brown	476	276	200	3.56
57	Mike	Flanagan	404	236	168	3.56	GOOD
58	Kent	Mercker	151	90	61	3.57	GOOD
59	Ed	Figueroa	179	101	78	3.58
60	John	Smiley	280	155	125	3.58	GOOD

61	Fred	Norman	266	141	125	3.58	GOOD
62	Storm	Davis	239	142	97	3.58	GOOD
63	David	Cone	419	248	171	3.59
64	Don	Sutton	756	418	338	3.60
65	Dave	Wickersham	124	67	57	3.60	GOOD
66	Pete	Richert	122	61	61	3.61
67	Dan	Haren	187	104	83	3.62
68	Larry	Gura	261	150	111	3.62	GOOD
69	Jim	Perry	447	242	205	3.63
70	Sal	Maglie	152	93	59	3.63

71	Ralph	Terry	251	142	109	3.63	GOOD
72	Pete	Vuckovich	185	107	78	3.64	GOOD
73	Britt	Burns	160	85	75	3.64	GOOD
74	Jerry	Koosman	526	271	255	3.65
75	Barry	Zito	320	180	140	3.66
76	Mickey	Lolich	496	264	232	3.67
77	Early	Wynn	358	209	149	3.67
78	Carlos	Zambrano	238	138	100	3.68
79	Carl	Erskine	171	103	68	3.68	GOOD
80	Burt	Hooton	377	204	173	3.69

81	Dick	Donovan	268	148	120	3.69
82	Larry	Jackson	419	216	203	3.70
83	Steve	Barber	274	144	130	3.70
84	Jim	Kaat	622	345	277	3.70
85	Dwight	Gooden	410	241	169	3.71
86	Jimmy	Key	389	233	156	3.71
87	Sam	McDowell	345	174	171	3.71
88	Scott	Kazmir	150	83	67	3.71
89	Atlee	Hammaker	152	78	74	3.72
90	Ken	Holtzman	410	224	186	3.74

91	Jim	Bunning	516	277	239	3.74
92	Orel	Hershiser	465	268	197	3.74
93	Ray	Culp	268	149	119	3.74
94	Charlie	Lea	144	82	62	3.75
95	Herb	Score	127	71	56	3.75
96	Dick	Tidrow	138	71	67	3.75	GOOD
97	Dean	Chance	294	148	146	3.76
98	Jim	Hunter	481	268	213	3.76
99	Vern	Law	292	164	128	3.76	GOOD
100	Mike	Mussina	535	325	210	3.76

						Effective
						Runs
				Team	Team	Allowed
Rank	First	Last	Starts	Wins	Losses	Rate	Note
101	Bob	Welch	462	259	203	3.76
102	Pat	Dobson	279	143	136	3.76
103	Jim	McGlothlin	201	101	100	3.76
104	Andy	Pettitte	457	277	180	3.77	GOOD
105	Bill	Singer	307	154	153	3.78
106	Gaylord	Perry	689	360	329	3.79
107	Bob	Shaw	220	115	105	3.79
108	Nelson	Briles	279	156	123	3.79
109	Dan	Petry	300	166	134	3.79	GOOD
110	Jake	Peavy	215	118	97	3.79

111	Tommy	John	699	386	313	3.80
112	Bret	Saberhagen	371	213	158	3.80
113	Bert	Blyleven	685	364	321	3.80
114	Bob	Turley	235	134	101	3.80
115	Josh	Beckett	225	130	95	3.81
116	Bobby	Bolin	161	82	79	3.81
117	Doc	Medich	287	157	130	3.82
118	Doug	Rau	187	97	90	3.82
119	Dave	Dravecky	146	75	71	3.82
120	Mark	Mulder	203	128	75	3.83

121	Teddy	Higuera	205	115	90	3.83
122	Mike	McCormick	331	175	156	3.83
123	Ray	Washburn	165	87	78	3.83
124	Brandon	Webb	198	108	90	3.83
125	Jack	Morris	526	302	224	3.84	GOOD
126	Larry	Christenson	220	120	100	3.84
127	Al	Downing	316	167	149	3.84
128	Dick	Drago	188	88	100	3.84
129	Jim	O'Toole	238	126	112	3.84
130	John	Buzhardt	199	98	101	3.85

131	Fernando	Valenzuela	424	217	207	3.85
132	Tom	Murphy	147	72	75	3.85
133	Larry	Dierker	324	169	155	3.85
134	Don	Wilson	241	125	116	3.86
135	Lamarr	Hoyt	172	96	76	3.86	GOOD
136	Don	Robinson	229	127	102	3.86
137	Johnny	Podres	339	182	157	3.86
138	Frank	Viola	420	224	196	3.87
139	Joey	Jay	202	106	96	3.87
140	Joe	Hesketh	114	64	50	3.87	GOOD

141	Jon	Matlack	317	153	164	3.87
142	Wilmer	Mizell	202	108	94	3.88
143	Bill	Monbouquette	262	137	125	3.88
144	Ramon	Martinez	297	176	121	3.88
145	Mike	Scott	318	164	154	3.88
146	Roy	Halladay	287	171	116	3.89
147	Sonny	Siebert	306	161	145	3.89
148	Stan	Bahnsen	325	163	162	3.89
149	Tom	Glavine	682	391	291	3.90
150	Joe	Sparma	141	75	66	3.90	GOOD

151	Bill	Lee	225	126	99	3.90
152	Cal	McLish	175	99	76	3.91
153	J.R.	Richard	221	125	96	3.91	NOT GOOD
154	Paul	Splittorff	391	212	179	3.91	GOOD
155	Dave	Rozema	132	71	61	3.91
156	Chuck	Finley	467	255	212	3.91
157	Turk	Farrell	133	59	74	3.92
158	Rudy	May	360	180	180	3.92
159	Chris	Short	306	152	154	3.92
160	Wilbur	Wood	297	152	145	3.93

161	Bruce	Hurst	359	204	155	3.94
162	Joaquin	Andujar	305	159	146	3.94
163	Lew	Krausse	167	75	92	3.94	GOOD
164	George	Brunet	213	101	112	3.94
165	Mark	Langston	428	223	205	3.95
166	Bob	Tewksbury	277	150	127	3.95	GOOD
167	Jack	Billingham	303	168	135	3.95
168	Phil	Niekro	708	376	332	3.96
169	Ron	Darling	364	200	164	3.96
170	Eric	Show	235	121	114	3.96

171	Orlando	Hernandez	211	125	86	3.97
172	John	Smoltz	481	274	207	3.97
173	Wally	Bunker	152	84	68	3.97
174	Lee	Stange	124	63	61	3.97
175	Art	Mahaffey	148	77	71	3.97	GOOD
176	Jack	McDowell	275	156	119	3.98
177	Dock	Ellis	316	166	150	3.98
178	Joe Jr.	Coleman	340	169	171	3.98
179	Charlie	Leibrandt	346	188	158	3.98
180	John	Montefusco	244	123	121	3.99

181	Bob	Moose	157	85	72	3.99
182	Joe	Magrane	165	81	84	4.00
183	Scott	Sanderson	407	219	188	4.00
184	Rick	Sutcliffe	391	218	173	4.01
185	Joe	Niekro	500	258	242	4.01
186	Jerry	Reuss	546	295	251	4.01
187	CC	Sabathia	288	169	119	4.02
188	Pascual	Perez	193	99	94	4.02
189	Justin	Verlander	132	77	55	4.02
190	Jason	Schmidt	313	175	138	4.02

191	Mike	Torrez	456	250	206	4.02
192	Dave	Stewart	348	197	151	4.02
193	John	Denny	322	172	150	4.02
194	John	Curtis	199	101	98	4.02
195	Randy	Wolf	275	153	122	4.03
196	Curt	Simmons	375	199	176	4.03
197	Hal	Brown	209	100	109	4.03
198	Rick	Reed	245	135	110	4.04
199	Kevin	Appier	402	218	184	4.04
200	Jim	Wilson	174	90	84	4.04

						Effective
						Runs
				Team	Team	Allowed
Rank	First	Last	Starts	Wins	Losses	Rate	Note
201	Bruce	Berenyi	131	62	69	4.04	GOOD
202	Bob	Knepper	413	209	204	4.04
203	Chuck	Rainey	106	62	44	4.05	GOOD
204	Mike	Caldwell	308	168	140	4.05
205	Mark	Gubicza	329	169	160	4.05
206	Ron	Reed	232	112	120	4.05
207	Dave	Stieb	412	226	186	4.05
208	David	Palmer	176	91	85	4.06
209	Bob	Buhl	337	181	156	4.06
210	Virgil	Trucks	138	72	66	4.07	NOT GOOD

211	Steve	Busby	150	86	64	4.07
212	Al	Leiter	382	202	180	4.07
213	Steve	Stone	269	145	124	4.07
214	Brad	Penny	275	149	126	4.08
215	Robin	Roberts	452	228	224	4.08
216	Mark	Prior	106	57	49	4.08
217	Bob	Friend	416	206	210	4.08
218	Tim	Lollar	131	66	65	4.08	GOOD
219	Ed	Whitson	332	171	161	4.08
220	Frank	Sullivan	216	110	106	4.08

221	Ron	Bryant	132	71	61	4.09	GOOD
222	Stan	Williams	207	110	97	4.09
223	Dave	Giusti	125	59	66	4.10
224	Dave	Boswell	151	84	67	4.10
225	Al	Fitzmorris	159	89	70	4.10
226	Jose	Rijo	269	142	127	4.10	NOT GOOD
227	Mario	Soto	225	116	109	4.10
228	Rick	Reuschel	529	268	261	4.10
229	Carl	Pavano	208	115	93	4.10	GOOD
230	Kevin	Millwood	375	207	168	4.11

231	Bryn	Smith	255	138	117	4.11
232	Curt	Young	162	91	71	4.11	GOOD
233	Jim	Deshaies	253	126	127	4.12
234	Woody	Williams	330	181	149	4.12
235	Moose	Haas	252	139	113	4.13
236	Lew	Burdette	346	192	154	4.13
237	Freddy	Garcia	274	160	114	4.13
238	Jack	Kralick	168	85	83	4.14
239	Bud	Black	296	148	148	4.14
240	Jarrod	Washburn	300	158	142	4.15

241	Ray	Sadecki	326	169	157	4.15
242	Jim	Grant	293	158	135	4.15
243	Steve	Blass	224	127	97	4.15
244	Randy	Jones	284	129	155	4.15
245	Charlie	Hough	440	219	221	4.16
246	Rick	Honeycutt	267	121	146	4.16
247	Jim	Nash	166	86	80	4.16
248	David	Wells	489	290	199	4.17
249	John	Lackey	233	133	100	4.17
250	Shane	Reynolds	278	153	125	4.17

251	Andy	Ashby	285	143	142	4.17
252	Mike	Krukow	354	189	165	4.17
253	Gary	Gentry	138	67	71	4.17
254	Juan	Pizarro	241	122	119	4.18
255	Clyde	Wright	235	113	122	4.18
256	Pat	Zachry	154	78	76	4.18
257	Aaron	Harang	214	112	102	4.18
258	Doyle	Alexander	464	240	224	4.19
259	Dick	Ruthven	332	166	166	4.19
260	Chris	Carpenter	260	149	111	4.19	GOOD

261	Jered	Weaver	110	66	44	4.19
262	Johnny	Odom	229	118	111	4.19
263	Jim	Rooker	254	127	127	4.20
264	Sid	Fernandez	300	159	141	4.20	NOT GOOD
265	Hideo	Nomo	318	170	148	4.20
266	Mike	LaCoss	243	124	119	4.20
267	Jim	Bibby	239	124	115	4.20
268	Rick	Wise	455	221	234	4.20
269	Bill	Hands	257	133	124	4.21	NOT GOOD
270	Ken	Forsch	239	118	121	4.21	NOT GOOD

271	Kirk	Rueter	336	201	135	4.21	GOOD
272	Jim	Bouton	144	71	73	4.21
273	Camilo	Pascual	402	206	196	4.21
274	Bill	Gullickson	389	214	175	4.21
275	Mark	Buehrle	301	173	128	4.22
276	Sam	Jones	205	105	100	4.22
277	Danny	Cox	174	88	86	4.22
278	Joe	Nuxhall	284	149	135	4.22
279	Andy	Benes	387	200	187	4.22
280	Jim	Barr	252	126	126	4.23

281	Bob	Porterfield	150	70	80	4.23
282	Nino	Espinosa	125	58	67	4.23
283	Dick	Bosman	229	113	116	4.24
284	A.J.	Burnett	244	127	117	4.24
285	Darren	Dreifort	113	60	53	4.24	GOOD
286	Cole	Hamels	116	67	49	4.24
287	Harvey	Haddix	247	137	110	4.25
288	Dennis	Martinez	561	304	257	4.25
289	Billy	O'Dell	197	103	94	4.25	NOT GOOD
290	Ervin	Santana	137	75	62	4.25

291	Kelly	Downs	135	62	73	4.25
292	Woodie	Fryman	320	150	170	4.26
293	Bruce	Kison	246	135	111	4.26
294	Alan	Foster	148	68	80	4.26
295	Dennis	Eckersley	361	189	172	4.27
296	Joe	Blanton	162	85	77	4.27
297	Mark	Portugal	283	152	131	4.27
298	Alex	Fernandez	261	142	119	4.27
299	Jamie	Moyer	608	332	276	4.27
300	Ricky	Mahler	182	89	93	4.27

Chart continues in a second article.

COMMENTS (4 Comments, most recent shown first)

taosjohn
If you had described the project to be beforehand and asked me to name someone who would be on the good list I'd have said Kirk Rueter. And on the bad I'd have said Steve Trachsel and Brian Rekar... dunno that that proves anything, but...

There are a lot of pitchers marked "good" that I remember as being pronounced ground ball pitchers. Is there a tendency there, or is my memory biased? (Not that anyone should do my homework for me...)
6:25 PM Jul 14th

CharlesSaeger
To answer my own thought: I compared J. R. Richard and Gary Peters, who had similar overall stats but Richard was "Not Good," to each other, and found that Richard came out better in Wins Above Team as well, both standard and the Pete Palmer weighted version. Thus, Wins Above Team is probably not going to help much, based on that limited comp.
6:25 PM Jul 13th

CharlesSaeger
I wonder how well Wins Above Team correlates with the gap between effective rate and actual rate.
2:07 PM Jul 13th

chuck
There are, coincidentally or not, several pitchers among those rated Good that had the same good teams behind them.
Gura, Splittorff, Gale, and Leonard for the White, Brett, Wilson, and Otis Royals.
Grimsley, Gullett, and Norman for the Red Machine.
Morris, Petry, and J.Robinson for the Trammell-Whitaker Tigers.
Grimsley, Flanagan, and Storm Davis for the Weaver Orioles.

1:43 PM Jul 13th

Random and Responsive Performance by Starting Pitchers Day Four--Data

COMMENTS (4 Comments, most recent shown first)

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