September 27, 2010

            OK, as we are now entering the third round of the tournament, let me stop and re-set the brackets:

Baltimore Regional

Cleveland Regional

St. Louis Regional

Los Angeles Regional

Defense Sinks Elliott in Overtime

Graig Nettles 87, Bob Elliott 86 (OT)

            Bob Elliott solidly outpointed Graig Nettles in the offensive areas, but lost the first game of the third round of the Brooks Robinson Invitational Tournament due to his inability to play defense at a level that competes with Graig Nettles.

            Bob Elliott now replaces Ken Boyer as the best player so far eliminated from the tournament.   A part of the California invasion of the game that hit in the late 1930s (along with Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr, Joe Gordon and the DiMaggios), Elliott is more comparable to Boyer than to any other player in the tournament.   He originally came to the majors as a center fielder (Boyer also played center for a year early in his career), moved to right field for two years, then to third base in 1942.   His first three years at third he led the NL in assists every year, but also in errors.    After a couple of years as a part-time third baseman, part-time outfielder he was traded to the Boston Braves.

            Pittsburgh’s Forbes Field was an extremely poor home run park; a very good park for hitting for average, a great park for triples, but poor for home runs.   The Braves put Elliott at third base full-time.   His home run total jumped to 22 (which was still 7 at home, 15 on the road), and he led the league in fielding percentage at third.  He was rewarded by MVP voters with an MVP Award.   He played at the same level the next year, drawing 133 walks.

            Elliott had power, speed, a long career, and a batting average near .300.   He was not a Gold Glove third baseman.   What makes Elliott better than Boyer—or anybody else we’ve eliminated so far—was his consistency, and his strikeout to walk ratio.   Elliott was a regular for twelve years; Boyer was a regular for twelve years—but Boyer was less than a .500 player in three of those years.   Elliott was a .500+ player every year.   Elliott was a .700+ player six seasons; Boyer, four seasons.  Willie Kamm had a better strikeout to walk ratio than Elliott, but Elliott hit six times as many homers, with more doubles and triples.  Elliott drove in 100 runs six times; Ken Boyer did it twice.   Only one other player in the tournament drove in 100 runs as many times (Chipper Jones)—and Elliott wasn’t playing in an inflated-run era like the 1930s or the steroid era.   Elliott’s OPS compared to the league norm (.088) was the fourth-best in this tournament, behind Chipper Jones, Rolen and Santo.  Bob Elliott is a player who very legitimately could have been put into the Hall of Fame.

Bob Elliott—Won and Lost Contributions

Toby Harrah 77, Billy Nash 76 (Double Overtime)

            Toby Harrah survived a 22-3 whuppin’ in the “defense” category to squeak past 19^th century star Billy Nash:

            I have explained before that the “overtime” description is used for contests in which the player who would win the Category comparisons does not win the Win Shares/Loss Shares comparison.   Nash beat Harrah on the category comparisons, however, 349 to 275.   We haven’t had any other contests in which a player the player who lost was that much better in the category comparisons. 

            I am sure I know less about Billy Nash, as a player, than anyone else in the tournament. The SABR publication “Nineteenth Century Stars” contains no entry on Nash, although it contains one-page biographies of dozens of players of lesser quality than Nash.    Retrosheet has not yet published any data that can help us understand him, although that will be coming.

            I have noticed, however, that when you sort baseball players by odd ratios in their data—which is what I spend most of my time doing—Billy Nash often turns up in unexpected places.   This, for example, is a list of the players with the highest ratios of Runs Scored plus RBI, divided by Total Bases (1500 or more games played):

            All 19^th century players, sure, but. . .he’s in first, and the four guys behind him (Duffy, Hamilton, Anson and Ward) are all in the Hall of Fame.

            Here’s a list of all the players in history with 800 runs scored, 800 RBI, and 800 walks in less than 1600 games played:

            Sure, it’s a garbage list, but. . .you know who Hank Greenberg is, don’t you?   We know Ralph Kiner, we know Mickey Cochrane, we know Larry Doby.    Why don’t we know Billy Nash?

            Nash was an RBI man.   He doesn’t get credit for that, in our system, because we ignore RBI.   Nash was the third baseman for the greatest team in 19^th century baseball, the Boston Braves of the 1890s.   He led the league several times in fielding percentage.   He held the record for double plays by a third baseman in 19^th century baseball, up until 1912.   He walked a lot, had very good on-base percentages and exceptional strikeout/walk ratios.   He had ten straight years as a regular and a winning player.

            You can’t get too excited about him because a) he wasn’t a big star, and b) we don’t really know anything about him.  But he is one of those guys, like Dolph Camilli and Bob Elliott and Don Buford and Charlie Keller and Harlond Clift and Heine Groh, who is easily overlooked, but a really good player when you take the time to focus on him.

Billy Nash—Won and Lost Contributions

            At this point 52 players have been eliminated from the tournament; 14 remain.   This chart compares the 52 players who have been eliminated by Career Win Shares Value.