Remember me

Down to the Final Two

October 4, 2010

 

October 3, 2010

Brooks Robinson (1) against

Today’s Winner

 

Chipper Jones (2) against

Buddy Bell (1)

Today

 

 

Chipper Jones 88, Buddy Bell 69

 

            Buddy Bell’s Gold Glove defense prevented Sunday night’s contest from degenerating into a complete rout.    Bell took the “Fielding” category 24 to 5, but lost the rest of the game by the embarrassing score of 83 to 45. 

 

 

Jones

Bell

Power

21

6

Speed

7

4

Hitting For Average

16

12

Plate Discipline

15

7

Career Length

11

12

Defense

5

24

Awards

3

3

Team Success

10

1

Total

88

69

 

            Buddy Bell, to those of us who remember him well, seemed entirely too bland to be thought of as a great player.   He was. . .nice.   He was a nice player.   He hit for a good average.  He had some power.   He actually walked more than he struck out.   There used to be players who did that.   He was an extremely good defensive third baseman, with a strong arm that enabled him to play deep and cover the cone. 

            But then there was the losing, and then there was the speed.   Among all the good players in this tournament, Bell played for by far the worst teams.   In an 18-year-career playing for 20 teams, he played for one team having a really good year, and two teams that slightly exceeded expectations.   Joe Bfstplk played for more good teams than Buddy Bell.   The one team with which he had a good year was the 1985 Cincinnati Reds, and he joined the team in mid-July.

            He had the worst stolen base percentage ever for a player with 100 or more attempts.   It’s hard to see this as a great player, a slow guy who played for bad teams his whole career and didn’t do anything really well except play third.   I’m not saying that he was a great player, but when you count the positives and the negatives there are more of the former than the latter.    I have two standards of a Hall of Fame player:  300 Win Shares, and 100 more Win Shares than Loss Shares.   Buddy Bell is the first player we have encountered in this tournament who meets both of those standards. 

 

YEAR

Team

Age

HR

RBI

AVG

SLG

OBA

OPS

BW

BL

FW

FL

Won

Lost

WPct

Value

1972

Cle

20

9

36

.255

.363

.310

.672

10

10

5

2

14

12

.552

16

1973

Cle

21

14

59

.268

.393

.325

.718

12

15

5

3

17

17

.499

17

1974

Cle

22

7

46

.262

.352

.322

.674

8

10

5

2

13

12

.509

13

1975

Cle

23

10

59

.271

.376

.332

.708

12

12

4

3

16

15

.525

17

1976

Cle

24

7

60

.281

.366

.329

.695

14

12

7

2

21

14

.596

24

1977

Cle

25

11

64

.292

.426

.351

.777

12

9

5

2

16

11

.607

19

1978

Cle

26

6

62

.282

.392

.328

.720

13

12

6

2

19

13

.583

21

1979

Tex

27

18

101

.299

.451

.327

.778

16

13

8

1

24

13

.642

29

1980

Tex

28

17

83

.329

.498

.379

.877

15

4

6

1

21

5

.822

29

1981

Tex

29

10

64

.294

.428

.364

.792

13

2

6

0

19

2

.914

27

1982

Tex

30

13

67

.296

.426

.376

.803

17

5

7

1

24

6

.791

32

1983

Tex

31

14

66

.277

.411

.332

.743

13

13

7

2

20

15

.576

23

1984

Tex

32

11

83

.315

.458

.382

.840

17

6

6

1

23

7

.779

31

1985

Tex

33

4

32

.236

.335

.308

.643

4

11

3

1

7

11

.398

5

1985

Cin

33

6

36

.219

.368

.311

.679

4

7

1

2

5

10

.358

3

1986

Cin

34

20

75

.278

.445

.362

.807

15

9

5

3

20

12

.622

24

1987

Cin

35

17

70

.284

.425

.369

.794

13

9

3

3

16

12

.574

18

1988

Cin

36

0

3

.185

.185

.270

.455

0

2

0

0

1

3

.165

0

1988

Hou

36

7

37

.253

.375

.301

.677

6

6

1

2

7

8

.439

6

1989

Tex

37

0

3

.183

.232

.247

.479

0

4

0

0

0

4

.090

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

201

1106

.279

.406

.341

.747

214

170

89

31

303

202

.601

354

 

 

            As we have completed the tournament now except for the top two players, we are ready to put the players in order 1 through 66. . .actually 3 through 66, but whatev’.  

 

 

Rank

First

Last

BW

BL

W Pct

 

FW

FL

W Pct

 

Won

Lost

W Pct.

WS V

3

Graig

Nettles

225

170

.569

 

97

31

.757

 

322

201

.615

382

4

Ron

Santo

224

123

.646

 

75

38

.661

 

299

161

.650

368

5

Buddy

Bell

214

170

.556

 

89

31

.742

 

303

202

.601

354

 

            Players of this caliber, historically, have almost always been selected to the Hall of Fame.   Second group:

 

Rank

First

Last

BW

BL

W Pct

 

FW

FL

W Pct

 

Won

Lost

W Pct.

WS V

6

Scott

Rolen

200

85

.701

 

60

13

.817

 

260

99

.725

346

7

Ron

Cey

204

106

.658

 

70

35

.664

 

274

142

.659

340

8

Jimmy

Collins

160

120

.570

 

103

23

.818

 

263

143

.647

322

9

Sal

Bando

209

101

.673

 

55

47

.539

 

263

148

.640

321

10

Bob

Elliott

205

92

.690

 

63

53

.543

 

268

145

.649

319

11

Ken

Boyer

189

124

.603

 

66

31

.681

 

255

155

.621

304

 

            Players of this caliber, historically, are presumptive Hall of Famers at most positions.    I don’t have exact data, but I am quite confident that, at most positions, the clear majority of players with career Win Value of 300 to 350 are in the Hall of Fame.

            Since only one of the 9 players listed above is in the Hall of Fame (Collins), this implicitly argues that there are 8 more who should be or could be.   Many of you will be uncomfortable with this argument.   That’s fine; I’m not actually arguing that these 8 players should all be in the Hall of Fame.   The only one I’m actually arguing for is Santo.

            However, I will observe that if all 8 of these players were selected to the Hall of Fame, this would merely bring the number of third basemen in the Hall up to level with some other positions.

 

Rank

First

Last

BW

BL

W Pct

 

FW

FL

W Pct

 

Won

Lost

W Pct.

WS V

12

Toby

Harrah

204

119

.631

 

50

55

.478

 

254

174

.593

294

13

Tim

Wallach

173

177

.495

 

79

30

.724

 

252

207

.549

274

14

Gary

Gaetti

174

223

.439

 

79

31

.720

 

253

254

.499

253

15

Carney

Lansford

183

123

.598

 

41

48

.460

 

224

171

.566

250

 

            Players in this range are presumptively NOT Hall of Famers.   However, there are many, many players in this range who have been selected to the Hall of Fame.   There are at least 20 players in the Hall of Fame who were no better than Carney Lansford.

 

 

Rank

First

Last

BW

BL

W Pct

 

FW

FL

W Pct

 

Won

Lost

W Pct.

WS V

16

Matt

Williams

165

135

.549

 

55

26

.675

 

220

162

.576

249

17

Billy

Nash

127

115

.526

 

86

30

.739

 

213

145

.595

247

18

Harry

Steinfeldt

138

124

.525

 

82

39

.677

 

219

163

.573

247

19

Harlond

Clift

145

95

.604

 

54

34

.614

 

199

129

.606

234

20

Heinie

Zimmerman

143

83

.633

 

54

44

.548

 

196

127

.608

231

21

Ken

Keltner

138

105

.567

 

59

30

.664

 

197

135

.593

227

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

22

Doug

DeCinces

145

111

.566

 

53

29

.642

 

198

141

.584

226

23

Todd

Zeile

173

158

.524

 

46

46

.501

 

219

205

.517

226

24

Jimmy

Dykes

143

141

.502

 

69

43

.618

 

212

184

.535

226

25

Willie

Kamm

127

133

.488

 

76

34

.690

 

202

167

.548

220

26

Adrian

Beltre

157

134

.540

 

43

30

.587

 

201

164

.550

219

27

Willie

Jones

137

120

.533

 

54

33

.618

 

190

153

.554

216*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

28

Bill

Bradley

128

111

.536

 

69

41

.632

 

198

152

.566

215*

29

Don

Money

147

124

.543

 

46

39

.543

 

193

163

.543

209

30

Troy

Glaus

144

93

.607

 

33

28

.533

 

176

122

.592

204

31

Mike

Lowell

138

111

.553

 

42

22

.659

 

180

133

.575

203

32

Freddy

Lindstrom

134

98

.577

 

48

44

.520

 

182

142

.561

202

33

Kevin

Seitzer

137

86

.615

 

35

29

.550

 

172

115

.601

201

*Subjectively adjusted.

 

            In this range of value there is a strong presumption against the Hall of Fame.   Nonetheless, quite a few players from this range of value have slipped into the Hall while people who know what they’re talking about weren’t watching.

 

Rank

First

Last

BW

BL

W Pct

 

FW

FL

W Pct

 

Won

Lost

W Pct.

WS V

34

Howard

Johnson

140

77

.645

 

27

40

.402

 

167

117

.588

192

35

Edgardo

Alfonzo

135

92

.595

 

33

27

.547

 

168

119

.585

192

36

Aramis

Ramirez

138

101

.577

 

30

28

.517

 

168

129

.565

187

37

Travis

Fryman

142

137

.510

 

39

32

.552

 

181

168

.518

187

38

Larry

Parrish

149

145

.508

 

34

48

.416

 

184

193

.487

179

39

Ray

Boone

119

77

.607

 

33

30

.524

 

153

108

.587

175

40

Doug

Rader

118

110

.517

 

45

29

.609

 

162

139

.539

174

41

Jeff

Cirillo

119

111

.518

 

39

17

.701

 

158

127

.554

173

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

42

Clete

Boyer

103

153

.402

 

66

15

.812

 

169

169

.501

170

43

Melvin

Mora

125

100

.555

 

29

24

.546

 

154

124

.553

169

44

Ken

McMullen

118

106

.526

 

39

29

.568

 

157

136

.536

167

45

Jerry

Denny

95

110

.461

 

62

38

.621

 

156

149

.511

160

46

Vinny

Castilla

120

176

.406

 

48

26

.643

 

168

202

.453

150

47

Hubie

Brooks

121

136

.471

 

37

41

.473

 

158

177

.471

148

48

Pinky

Whitney

106

136

.440

 

47

44

.519

 

154

180

.461

141

49

Phil

Nevin

109

70

.611

 

15

26

.372

 

124

95

.566

139

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

Bill

Melton

99

75

.569

 

28

27

.508

 

127

102

.555

139

51

Don

Hoak

91

99

.480

 

41

21

.664

 

132

119

.525

138

52

Joe

Randa

108

122

.470

 

32

25

.561

 

140

147

.488

137

53

Frank

Malzone

98

135

.420

 

44

24

.645

 

142

159

.471

133

54

Ray

Knight

100

111

.473

 

34

32

.517

 

134

143

.484

129

55

Brook

Jacoby

97

98

.498

 

30

30

.500

 

127

128

.498

127

56

David

Bell

88

125

.414

 

37

17

.683

 

126

143

.469

117

57

Charlie

Hayes

96

133

.419

 

35

26

.573

 

131

159

.452

117

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

58

Dean

Palmer

109

106

.508

 

16

37

.308

 

125

142

.468

117

59

Steve

Buechele

83

107

.435

 

36

19

.655

 

118

126

.484

115

60

Jim

Davenport

86

111

.437

 

35

26

.579

 

121

136

.471

114

61

Tony

Batista

85

115

.425

 

30

18

.632

 

115

133

.465

107

62

Luis

Salazar

75

103

.421

 

28

26

.514

 

103

130

.442

89

63

Bob

Aspromonte

77

115

.402

 

31

32

.495

 

108

146

.425

89

64

Tom

Brookens

65

110

.371

 

34

19

.642

 

99

129

.434

83

65

Ed

Sprague

75

106

.413

 

22

23

.484

 

96

129

.427

80

66

Ken

Reitz

70

138

.337

 

39

32

.549

 

110

171

.392

79

 

            Below 200, players should not be thought of as Hall of Fame candidates. 

 
 

COMMENTS (9 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
OOOPS, my bad! I hadn't read this article!!!
There's Chipper vs. Buddy right there.
I thought I was still "replying" to yesterday's article.
(Hey Bill, how about a "Delete" button......) :-)
7:09 PM Oct 4th
 
MarisFan61
Looking ahead:
Does ANYONE give Buddy any chance against Chipper?
He was a very good player but.....do most of us think of him as being even in Chipper's ballpark? I don't think so.

But with the closer look we're getting at him here, I guess we were wrong. :-)
I'll be shocked if he beats Chipper, but it won't be a blowout.

P.S. On baseball-reference.com, for the last 13 years of Buddy's career, his "Most Similar" player was Brooks Robinson, with reasonably high similarity scores. And it looks like the main reason they diverged toward the end was that Buddy sustained his hitting a bit better.


7:07 PM Oct 4th
 
jdw
Looking at the two "upsets" in the Regional Finals:

322-201 Nettles
299-161 Santo
Extra: 23-40 (.365) in 830 PA
Per 650 PA: 18-31

303-201 Bell
274-141 Cey
Extra: 29-60 (.326) in 1665 PA
Per 650 PA: 11-23

The "extra" doesn't fit very nicely into a per 650 number, almost certainly because of the number of outs being consumed. Nettles extra offense "beyond" Santo's 224-123 is a 1-47 BW-BL in just 830 PA: a total of 37.6 BW+BL per 650 PA. Yikes!

Nettles makes up for some of it with the glove: 22+7 beyond Santo, which is as amazing as the negative with the bat. Roughly 1.28 extra years of 18-31 3B play a positive, with a massive 1-37 with the bat. So extreme that a player like that wouldn't play, certainly not at 3B in the modern era.

Bell is 10-64 BW-BL and 19+4 FW-FL beyond in 2.56 years of 650 PA. That' 4-25 a "year" with the bat, a .135 BW%. 1665 PA of .135 BW% beyond Ron Cey.

Ken Reitz, the worst player in the tourney, was a .250 BW% as a rookie. He was a .167 BW% at the age of 30 with a horrible 38-65 Cubs team after Whitey shipped him out of town. He got 11 more PA in his career.

It really hard to imagine a 3B in the modern era getting rolled out for 830 PA of 1-47 offense (.021 BW%) or 1665 PA of 10-64 offense (.135 BW%) regardless of how good their defense was. Perhaps a short period at the start of their career, or perhaps a short period at the end of their career.

Maybe we'll see with Brook do it. But his 1958 + 1975 + 1976 don't look to be collectively as bad as Reitz's 1981, and won't come close to the 1-47 that is Nettles offense "tail" relative to Santo.
6:00 PM Oct 4th
 
bjames
Mike--Doesn't that make his managerial winning percentage the same as his career stolen base percentage?
5:22 PM Oct 4th
 
jdw
You're correct - Bill did mention RHB as the Brooks Type. He mentioned three exceptions in Nettles, HoJo and Nettles. Nettles was a lefty. HoJo and Chipper were switchies who hit better left handed and if I'm not mistaken it was their "natural" side. I can see leaving Ventura out under the RHB type. I'm not sure if Ventura was invited in that it would have opened the door for a lot of additional 3B. He tends to fit the more than HoJo though it was fun to see HoJo in here.

Perhaps a supplimentary post of a few other 3B's who are in the same class of 3B, but were left out.
4:42 PM Oct 4th
 
kcbbfan
As a Royals fan, I think the team success score of 1 for Buddy Bell is far too high. He has to take a hit for his managerial record - 9 years 519 and 724 .418 winning percentage. Right? ;)
3:18 PM Oct 4th
 
MarisFan61
.....except for being a lefty hitter, which was probably the reason (although that wasn't a total ruler-outer).
1:28 PM Oct 4th
 
jdw
Going back and re-reading the Boyer piece ("St. Louis Shocker"), I see that I got the 300+ mixed up as WSV rather than WS.

Interesting that Cey has the best W% in the tourney other than the two higb ranking active players (Chipper & Rolen). Finishing ahead of Santo probably would surprise a lot of people, and how he did it even more: ahead of Santo in both BW% and FW%.

NewHistAb rankings were:

6. Santo
7. Brooks
11. Bando
12. Boyer
13. Nettles
16. Cey
17. Collins
18. Elliott
19. Bell
23. Williams
27. Wallach
32. Harrah
34. Keltner
37. Clift
38. DeCinces
39. Lansford

Chipper was 28, but that was an ranking early in his career.

Suspect that order changes a bit if they were redone, though perhaps the Peak Value component, time line adjustment and the subjective element would shuffle things around.

Bill: have you run Robin Ventura? He's one of the players who fits the Robinson type about as well as anyone left out, and better than quite a few people in the field. .267 BA, power, slow as a slug, and noted as a glove man. It would be interesting to see how his defense works out with the three GG's, and the offense should come out fairly well (OPS+ of 114 to Boyer's 116 in nearly the same PA).
11:08 AM Oct 4th
 
Robinsong
Bill -
Graig Nettles also makes both standards. I was wondering if 300 Win Shares under your new system would still be your cutoff. What an interesting group of players!
9:04 AM Oct 4th
 
 
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