For the 1990 ALCS, the Boston Globe put together a special playoff guide to the Red Sox/A’s matchup. It was terrific: there were a bunch of articles about some of the players, and a recap of the season’s head-to-head contests. There was also a full-color page comparing the two teams, position-by-position, telling us which team had the ‘edge’ at every position. Terry Steinbach or Tony Pena? Roger Clemens or Dave Stewart? Jose Canseco or Tom Brunansky?
I loved that playoff guide…I remember pouring over it, splitting it with my brother and reading every article. This is from memory, but I think one article was about Dave Henderson, who was with Oakland then, but who had been a hero for Boston in 1986. I remember the title: “Might vs. Right,” across the front of the page. The A’s were ‘Might,’ but the Red Sox were ‘Right.’ The front photo was a shot of Tony Pena and Roger Clemens shaking hands after a victory. I saved that special section: it’s packed away with my old baseball cards in the States.
In tribute to that 1990 Boston Globe ALCS guide, here’s a position-by-position breakdown of the 2010 ALCS contests, along with some other numbers and my predictions.
TAMPA BAY RAYS VS. TEXAS RANGERS
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Runs Per
|
Runs Allowed
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Defensive
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Record Vs.
|
|
Game
|
Per Game
|
Efficiency
|
Opponent
|
|
Rays
|
4.96 (3rd)
|
4.02 (2nd)
|
.707 (2nd)
|
4-2
|
|
Rangers
|
4.88 (4th)
|
4.23 (4th)
|
.700 (5th)
|
2-4
|
CATCHER
John Jaso, Rays: Jaso has been quietly effective behind the plate for the Rays, posting a .750 OPS on the season. As a defender Jaso rates as average at best: the Rays staff has posted a 3.87 ERA with Jaso behind the plate, and base runners are 50-for-59 (85%) stealing bases against him.
Matt Treanor/Bengie Molina, Rangers: Collectively, Treanor and Molina have an OPS+ of just 59, which is a far cry from the production that Texas expected to have from their catcher in 2010. The Rangers are 42-25 when Treanor is the catcher, but base stealers are successful in 80% of attempts against Treanor, and the Rays are very good at stealing bases. Molina has the better defensive reputation, but the Fielding Bible data doesn’t suggest he’s any better than Treanor. It will be interesting to see who Washington goes with to slow down Crawford, Upton, and Zobrist.
Edge: Rays
FIRST BASE
Carlos Pena, Rays: A lost season for Pena, whose batting average (.195 on the season) hovered around the Mendoza line for most of 2010. Pena still bats in the middle of the lineup, but there is concern that an injured foot has reduced his ability to launch baseballs. He still makes pitchers work (86 walks), but he isn’t the reliable left-handed power bat he’s been in years past.
Jorge Cantu/Moreland or Davis, Rangers: How many playoff teams have ever had question marks at first base? It’s strange for a playoff team to get so little production from first, but the Rangers haven’t had any luck at first this year. They started with Chris Davis, who failed to live up to expectations. Then Justin Smoak came up and struggled. The Rangers traded for Cantu in late July, and Cantu struggled, so they’ve rotated Justin Moreland and Chris Davis with Cantu. At this point, Cantu is the sure bet to start most of the games, but Davis or Moreland could also make appearances.
Edge: Rays.
SECOND BASE
Sean Rodriguez, Rays: Sean-Rod has had a quietly effective season as one of the two super-subs on the Rays: he’s played every position except pitcher and catcher, and while his batting hasn’t lived up to his insane spring training numbers, his .707 OPS and defensive versatility have been valuable to the Rays.
Ian Kinsler, Rangers: In my fantasy league this year, I debated between Kinsler and Tulowitzki for the thirteenth pick…and I went with Kinsler. This was not the best decision I’ve ever made, as Kinsler missed a lot of the 2010 season with a groin injury, while Tulo had a Ruthian September. Still, when he’s healthy Kinsler is one of the best second basemen in baseball: a power hitter with speed and solid defense.
Edge: Rangers
THIRD BASE
Evan Longoria, Rays: A good case could be made that Longoria is the MVP of the American League, especially if you think a player has to make the playoffs to win the award (And just to clarify: I don’t think that.) Longoria does everything well: he hits for power and average, gets his walks, runs well, and plays excellent defense. One of the twelve best players in the American League in 2010.
Michael Young, Rangers: You know who the most comparable players to Michael Young are? Barry Larkin, Julio Franco, Craig Biggio and Travis Jackson. A Hall-of-Famer (Jackson), two future Hall-of-Famers (Larkin and Biggio), and Julio Franco. Young’s offense declined a bit in 2010, but he can still hit the baseball.
Edge: Rays
SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett, Rays: Bartlett declined in every offensive category in 2010, and most of those declines were precipitous. He went from 14 homeruns to 4. His batting average went from .320 to .254.
Elvis Andrus, Rangers: Elvis didn’t step backwards as far as Bartlett, but his improvement on-base percentage was offset by a decline in slugging percentage and less effective base running.
Edge: Rangers.
LEFT FIELD
Carl Crawford, Rays: Nobody is talking about Crawford for MVP…why is that? And who, between Crawford and Hamilton, has actually been more valuable this year? It’s closer than most people realize: Hamilton has the better offensive numbers, but Crawford is the superior defensive player. And while both men are good base runners, Crawford is the better base runner, +52 to +26. If I had to pick one for AL MVP, I might go with Crawford.
Josh Hamilton, Rangers: Hamilton has missed most of the last month with a rib cage injury sustained when he crashed into the outfield wall. He is a better hitter than Crawford, but the injury, coupled with Crawford’s defense and speed, give the Rays a narrow edge in left.
Edge: Rays.
CENTER FIELD
BJ Upton, Rays: Actually, four of the ten best base runners in 2010 are playing in this series: Crawford (2nd), Andrus (4th), Zobrist (6th), and Upton (10th). If you like stolen bases, this will be a fun series. Upton has enjoyed some postseason successes.
Julio Borbon, Rangers: Borbon has not had the year that the Rangers were expecting, but Washington’s stuck with him, and he’s had a better second half. Another speedy player.
Edge: Rays.
RIGHTFIELD
Ben Zobrist, Rays: Zobrist drew walks (92) and stole bases (24-for-27). Played every position but shortstop, catcher, and pitcher. He wasn’t up to his 2009 levels, but he’s a valuable player.
Nelson Cruz: Rangers: The Rangers are a team of Vlad Guerreros, a team of guys who swing and crush baseballs. Do you know who leads the team in walks? Elvis Andrus…with 64. Ian Kinsler is second with 56…in 102 games. Michael Young is third with 50 walks. This team, curiously, would do well against a pitcher like Cliff Lee, but they’d struggle against a guy like Rich Harden.
Edge: Rangers
DESIGNATED HITTER
Matt Joyce, Rays: I don’t think that Joyce has played DH, but he’ll get the most at-bats of the bench players. He’s had an .834 OPS in a part-time role, but he’s been in the lineup most days this summer.
Vlad Guerrero, Rangers: Vlad hit .301 with 29 homeruns and 115 RBI’s…he missed a .300-30-100 season, a Hall-of-Fame season, by one homerun. He has eight HOF seasons, plus three near-misses. It’s been a joy to watch Vlad’s career.
Edge: Rangers
STARTING PITCHER 1
David Price, Rays: Posting a 2.72 ERA as a starter in the American League East is an astonishing feat. Price has thrown 208 innings on the season, but his 1.46 ERA in September was his lowest total in 2010.
Cliff Lee, Rangers: Lee posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 10.28 this year. He has an (earned) reputation as a big-game pitcher (1.56 ERA in 40 postseason innings), and despite his struggles in Texas, he is the best starter in the series.
Edge: Rangers.
STARTING PITCHER 2
Matt Garza, Rays: His strikeout rate dropped from 8.4 in 2009 to 6.6 in 2010, but the dude gets his innings.
C.J. Wilson, Rangers: Wilson has thrown 204 innings in 2010, after never before topping 100+ innings. He’s 29 years old, and his September ERA (5.85) was the highest he’s had in any month this year. He walks a lot of batters, and you don’t want to walk guys like Crawford, Upton, or Zobrist.
Edge: Rays
STARTING PITCHER 3
James Shields, Rays: This has been the worst season of Shields’’ workhorse career: he led the league in hits allowed, runs allowed, and homeruns allowed, and posted the highest ERA (5.15) he’s ever had in the majors. On the other hand, his strikeout rate is also the highest he’s posted.
Colby Lewis, Rangers: Another pitcher who has thrown way more innings than ever before.
Edge: Rangers
STARTING PITCHER 4
Wade Davis, Rays – Unlike Lewis and Wilson of the Rangers, Wade Davis should be fine with his workload this season: he’s at 168 IP this year, which is no more than he’s thrown in previous professional seasons.
Tommy Hunter, Rangers – Hunter is 13-4 this year, with 68 strikeouts and 33 walks in 128 innings. He’s faced the Rays twice this year, splitting the games and not getting hit too hard.
Edge: Rays.
CLOSER
Rafael Soriano, Rays: Soriano’s been great: he led the league in saves and had a 1.73 ERA. His strikeout rate this year (8.2) has actually been below his career average (9.6), and well below his rate in 2008 (10.3) or 2009 (12.1). But that’s quibbling…you can’t argue about the results.
Neftali Feliz, Rangers: Forty saves, 2.73 ERA, and a strikeout an inning. Both teams have fine closers.
Edge: Rays
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Pos.
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Rays
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Rangers
|
|
C
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X
|
|
|
1B
|
|
X
|
|
2B
|
|
X
|
|
3B
|
X
|
|
SS
|
|
X
|
|
LF
|
X
|
|
CF
|
X
|
|
RF
|
|
X
|
|
DH
|
|
X
|
|
SP1
|
|
X
|
|
SP2
|
X
|
|
SP3
|
|
X
|
|
SP4
|
X
|
|
CL
|
X
|
My Prediction: As much as I like the Rangers, I think the Rays take this one in five games. The Rangers have two catchers who aren’t great at throwing out runners, and they have a pitching staff that (apart from Cliff Lee) is a little prone to walking batters. When those batters reach, they’re going to be off to the races. Rays in five.
MINNESOTA TWINS VS. NEW YORK YANKEES
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Runs Per
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Runs Allowed
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Defensive
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Record Vs.
|
|
Game
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Per Game
|
Efficiency
|
Opponent
|
|
Twins
|
4.84 (5th)
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4.16 (3rd)
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.687 (9th)
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2-4
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|
Yankees
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5.31 (1st)
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4.25 (5th)
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.707 (3rd)
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4-2
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CATCHER
Joe Mauer, Twins: Joe Mauer had the same season in 2010 that he had in 2008…..same batting average (.327 to .328), same homeruns (9), same OPS+ (134 to 135). In 2008 it was good enough for him to finished 4th in the AL MVP vote, but I doubt he cracks the top-ten this year, because a) he wasn’t as good this year as he was last year, and b) he didn’t win the batting title. He was one of the ten best players in the AL in 2010, and he should be part of the discussion for the 2010 AL MVP. He won’t finish 4th, but he probably should.
Jorge Posada, Yankees: The Yankees are 49-28 (.636) with Posada behind the plate, and 44-36 (.550) with Cervelli catching. Personally, I’d go with the future Hall-of-Famer.
Edge: Twins.
FIRST BASE
Michael Cuddyer, Twins: Cuddyer’s homerun totals fell off in 2010, from 32 to 14, but he remains a solid hitter. At this writing, Justin Morneau is practicing, but is not expected to play in the ALDS.
Mark Teixeira, Yankees: Does anyone get excited about this guy? I mean that seriously…are any of you Teixeira fans? He’s a helluva player: he’s a fine hitter and an able defender, and I’m sure he helps old ladies cross the street from time to time. But I couldn’t be bothered to root for the guy. Or against him. He’s a blank slate, really.
Edge: Yankees.
SECOND BASE
Orlando Hudson, Twins: He plays good defense, and won’t kill you with the bat.
Robinson Cano, Yankees: Boy, it looked like he had the MVP wrapped up in July, didn’t it? I mean, I thought the only debate was whether he was going to win it unanimously. When Pedroia is healthy we can rehash the old Gordon/Doerr arguments with these two.
Edge: Yankees.
THIRD BASE
Danny Valencia, Twins: He’s hitting better in the majors than he’s ever hit in the minors. He’s a Florida native, so October in Minnesota should be a surprise for him.
Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: The homerun he hit off Dice-K two weeks ago (to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead when they were on the edge of getting swept by the Sox) was a very clutch hit…I was listening to the game on the radio, and I prayed that Dice-K wasn’t going to grove one, and I half-knew that he was going to and that Alex was going to crank it. And he did. Thirteen consecutive seasons of 30 homeruns, 100 RBI’s. Yankees fans have to hope they’re on the hook for six more.
Edge: Yankees.
SHORTSTOP
JJ Hardy, Twins: Two years ago, JJ Hardy was really, really valuable: a power-hitting shortstop with good defense. What the heck happened to that guy?
Derek Jeter, Yankees: Don’t you have a sneaking suspicion that Derek Jeter is trying to talk all of his free-agent friends to sign with, say, the Florida Marlins, so that they can hang out on South Beach and build a superstar baseball team? Because that’s exactly what’s happening. Prepare yourselves, New York.
Edge: Yankees.
LEFT FIELD
Delmon Young, Twins: Delmon Young is a fine, fine hitter, and one of the worst defensive leftfielder in baseball. His excellent hitting is almost completely offset by his poor defense.
Brett Gardner, Yankees: Actually, Delmon Young and Brett Gardner are polar opposites: Young’s Triple Crown numbers are .298/21/112, while Gardner’s are .277/5/47. But Brett Gardner is a far better player than Delmon Young. It isn’t even close. Gardner stole 47 bases in 56 attempts (84%). Young was 5-for-9. Gardner walked 79 times, while Young walked just 28 times. Gardner was one of the best outfielders in baseball in 2010: we have him as saving 16 runs more than an average outfielder. Young was -8 runs. Gardner is the better player.
Edge: Yankees
CENTER FIELD
Denard Span, Twins: Span also rates as one of the weakest outfielders in baseball. As a hitter, Span took a step backwards in 2010, and it will be interesting to see where he goes from here. He’s still young, and he can run.
Curtis Granderson, Yankees: Ian Kennedy had WAR of 2.6 and was paid $400,000 this year. Austin Jackson had the same WAR, and is a good candidate to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Curtis Granderson, whom the Yankees traded Kennedy and Jackson for, managed a WAR of 2.0 in 2010, and was paid $5.5 million dollars for his services. This trade was a bust for the Yankees in 2010, and I doubt it’ll get any prettier.
Edge: Yankees.
RIGHTFIELD
Jason Kubel, Twins: Is the Twins outfield the worst defensive outfield of any playoff team ever? Someone check that….please. Kubel is at -1.0 in defensive WAR, Span is -1.7, and Delmon Young is at -2.0. Basically, everything that the Twins outfielders do with the bat that is more than a replacement-level player, they give back on defense.
Nick Swisher, Yankees: Swisher quietly had the best season of his career in 2010. He’s really popular in New York, which makes me happy because I’ve always rooted for Swisher. He had an up-and-down career, and I didn’t think that going to the Yankees was going to fix that, much. I was wrong: the Yankees are getting more out of Swisher than the A’s or White Sox did. My favorite Yankee.
Edge: Yankees.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Jim Thome, Twins: Thome posted a 1.039 OPS this year…the only player in baseball with a higher OPS was Josh Hamilton. I think his 2010 season has pushed up his entrance to the Hall of Fame a few years.
Lance Berkman, Yankees: On his transaction history, it says that Berkman waiver his no-trade clause from the Astros in return for the Yankees not exercising their $15 million dollar team option for 2011. Was there a chance the Yankees would’veexercised that option? And why did Berkman not want them to exercise it? Does he think he can do better than $15 million in 2011?
Edge: Twins.
STARTING PITCHER 1
Francisco Liriano, Twins: It’s nice to see the old, dominant Liriano. He had a rough September (4.59 ERA), but the Twins have been resting him, and he should be good for two starts in Minnesota.
CC Sabathia, Yankees: I hope Felix wins the Cy Young, but Sabathia’s been great this year: 21 wins and a 3.18 ERA in a tough division and a tough home field. He’s halfway to 300 wins.
Edge: Yankees.
STARTING PITCHER 2
Carl Pavano, Twins: Workhorse season for Pavano: 221 innings pitched, 3.75 ERA. Not bad.
Andy Pettitte, Yankees: Pettitte’s made three starts since coming off the DL, pitching well against the Orioles and getting hit hard by Boston twice. In his last start against Boston, Pettitte did strike out eight of the 23 batters he faced.
Edge: Twins
STARTING PITCHER 3
Brian Duensing, Twins: Duensing is 10-3 with a 2.62 ERA on the year, but I don’t think he’s quite as good as those numbers suggest. If I’m the Twins, I want Scott Baker making starts in this series.
Phil Hughes, Yankees: The beneficiary of the highest run support of any starter in the AL this year, Hughes had an excellent first-half (3.65 ERA), but has struggled in Act 2 (4.90 ERA). The Yankees have rested him down the stretch, and he should be the #3 starter in the playoffs.
Edge: Yankees.
STARTING PITCHER 4
Nick Blackburn, Twins: Another Twin pitcher with a low k-rate…Blackburn finished the year 10-12, after two straight seasons of 11-11…he missed three in a row by one loss. Blackburn won both his starts against the Yankees this year, allowing 5 earned runs in 14 innings. He had a very good August and a solid September…for that he merits a slight edge over Burnett.
AJ Burnett, Yankees: Burnett is getting paid $15.5 million this year, and he had a 5.26 ERA and a 10-15 record to show for it.
Edge: Twins.
CLOSER
Matt Capps, Twins: The Twins have three closers in their bullpen: Capps, Fuentes, Rauch. Frankly, I wouldn’t trust any of them. Capps, with 42 saves on the season, is the default closer, and Fuentes has been used as the 8th inning man. They’re both good pitchers, but boy can they make a guy nervous.
Mariano Rivera, Yankees: Rivera has ten seasons with an ERA under 2.00. He’s an interesting candidate to be the first man elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously. Certainly, he should be. He is two saves short of 600 in his career (counting his postseason totals).
Edge: Yankees.
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Pos.
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Twins
|
Yankees
|
|
C
|
X
|
|
1B
|
|
X
|
|
2B
|
|
X
|
|
3B
|
|
X
|
|
SS
|
|
X
|
|
LF
|
|
X
|
|
CF
|
|
X
|
|
RF
|
|
X
|
|
DH
|
X
|
|
|
SP1
|
|
X
|
|
SP2
|
X
|
|
|
SP3
|
|
X
|
|
SP4
|
X
|
|
CL
|
|
X
|
My prediction: It doesn’t look good: the Yankees have advantages at every position except catcher and DH. That said, I don’t know that the Yankees area quite as good as they’ve been in the past. The pitching (aside from Sabathia) is thin: Andy Pettitte is as reliable as they come, but he’s 38 years old and he’s coming back from an injury. Phil Hughes was great during the first half, but he’s been lousy in the second. I don’t know many Yankees fans that have faith in AJ Burnett. The Twins aren’t great, either, but they’ve had plenty of time to rest and their starters match up well against the Yankees. I think the Twins take the series. Twins in four.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.