JONESIN’, 84-74

October 5, 2010

            I think the expression "Jonesing" (Jonesin’) comes from Jones Beach on Long Island.   My understanding is that there was a period in the fifties and early sixties when drug dealers hung out on Jones Beach, and New York area drug addicts, when they needed a fix, would head for Jones Beach.  .thus, they were "Jonesing" when they needed to get high.   However, I’ve never actually seen this confirmed in print; it is just my understanding, so. . .does anyone know if this is accurate?

            Anyway, Chipper Jones was the best player in our tournament.   I started the tournament, in part, because people were asking me, after Jones’ season-ending (and probably career-ending) injury, a) whether Jones was a clear and obvious Hall of Famer, and b) where he ranked among the great third basemen of all time.   I was wondering about Chipper, and then I was wondering about Mike Lowell, for similar reasons (Lowell’s career has just ended), and I was wondering how Lowell compares to Beltre, and how Jones compares to Santo, how Santo compares to Nettles, how Nettles compares to Boyer, etc.   I just decided to draw up a list and sort them out.  

            This is the "game summary" for Jones against Brooksie:

            Essentially, our system believes that Brooks Robinson’s advantage in the field outweighs any of Chipper’s advantages with the bat, but not all of them. 

The real question is, do we accept that?    Do we truly believe, having taken the issue as seriously as we can and studied it as well as we can, that Jones’ batting was worth more than Brooks’s fielding?

            We’ll get to that.   First, let’s look at the two side by side, age by age.  Brooks Robinson came to the majors, as a bonus baby, at the age of 18, playing just a little bit for a very bad team.   At the age of 21 Chipper Jones got his first taste of major league play.   At age 21 Brooks Robinson—still working for a very bad team—had the opportunity to play regularly all season.   He played very badly, got sent back out, came back up the next year and established himself as a quality player at age 22.    At age 23 both players were regulars, and were players of comparable value at that age:

            It was in 1960 that the Orioles, playing a team of 21-year-old pitchers and minor league veterans/major league rookies, suddenly transformed from a perennial loser to a perennial contender.  At this point, because we are using a low replacement level, Brooks is ahead in career Win Shares Value, 44 to 20.   Brooks has a career won-lost contribution of 45-47; Jones, of 17-12. 

            Chipper stepped up his offensive game the next season, at age 24.    Brooks had a good year at age 24, a great year at age 25, and a very poor season at age 26:

            Brooks, leading 44 to 20 at age 23, led 65-50 through age 24, 97-75 through age 25, and 116-113 through age 26.    At 27 both players won MVP Awards:

            While both players won MVP Awards Chipper’s season, in the judgment of our method, is somewhat better.    Brooks still led through age 27, 153-152—but that would be the last time that he would lead:

            Brooks Robinson played in one of the lowest run environments of any player in our tournament, and we see that here.   In 1967 Robinson hit just .269 with an on base percentage of just .328—yet his won-lost contribution scores at 24-10, a solid All-Star level, even an MVP candidate level.    Robinson’s career run environment was 3.922 runs per game, or 635 runs per season, the fourth-lowest in the tournament.   Jones’ career run environment was 4.623 runs per game, or 749 per season.   People think that Robinson was overrated mostly because they’re not making adequate adjustments for offensive context.  But adjusting for that, Jones is still a much, much better hitter than Robinson.    By the age of 30, Jones was leading Robinson in career value, 256 to 236.

            Somewhere in here (I forget where) Jones hit the tabloids due to his involvement with a Hooters’ girl.   Chipper always reminded me of Mickey Mantle.. .switch hitter, great power, great control of the strike zone, boyish looks and a little too cute for his own good. . .and, had Hooters’ been around when Mickey Mantle was playing, Mickey’s apartment would have been a jungle of orange short shorts, so I wasn’t too shocked by this.  Anyway, there were two controversies of Chipper’s career—that one, and the one that had to do with his playing the outfield.

            Chipper when he was young wasn’t a terrible third baseman; he wasn’t Brooks Robinson, but he wasn’t bad.   He was a little below average for the position.  Using the double plays/errors ratio as a shorthand, his DP/Errors ratio for 1997-98 was 45 to 27.   He went backward from there, however; from 1999 through 2001 it was 46 to 58.   In 2002 Bobby Cox or somebody else in the Atlanta power system decided they couldn’t live with that any more.  They acquired Vinny Castilla—a very good defensive third baseman—and sent Chipper to left field.

            At age 32 both players hit under .250.   Chipper by this time had a career won-lost record of 227-74 (value 304); Robinson, of 243-157 (value 286).   Robinson is credited or charged with more decisions for three reasons:  1) He was in the majors several years earlier, 2) He made more outs, thus is held responsible for a larger share of the responsibility for the offense, and 3) The increase in strikeouts between 1960 and 2000 decreased the significance of defensive play at every position, reducing the responsibility for wins and losses that is assigned to fielders.

            Chipper wasn’t happy playing left field, and he was too big a star to make a secret of those things.    There was talk about his leaving Atlanta if he couldn’t go back to third.   In 2002, with Chipper playing third base, the Braves won 101 games but were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.   In 2003, with Vinny Castilla playing third base, the Braves won 101 games but were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.   Castilla didn’t hit while he was in Atlanta, so after a couple of years the Braves’ management conceded that maybe it didn’t make all that much difference where Chipper played as long as half the games were in Fulton County, and allowed him to return to the infield.

            As late as the age of 34, the contest between Robinson and Jones is still a very close one.   Robinson was still a good hitter—92 RBI in 1971, and that’s still in an extremely low-run context.  One of Robinson’s teammates led the American League in runs scored that year, with 99.    In 1972, however, Robinson basically stopped hitting.   He was sustained after that by his glovework, his reputation, periodic hot streaks with the bat, and the fact that the Orioles, winning almost 100 games a year, were under little pressure to replace him.   Jones, on the other hand, had two more monster seasons with the bat:

            This put Jones ahead, 414-381.   After that, they were both in irreversible decline, although Chipper—like Mantle in ’67 and ’68—is actually STILL a very good player because of his very high on-base percentages. 

            I’ll assume that that 3-1 defensive mark for Chipper this year is some kind of a fluke, but what do I know.   Anyway, this chart dis-entangles Chipper and Brooks:

Brooks Robinson—Career Won and Lost Contributions

Chipper

            Chipper wins, 450-418.   Jones’ defensive won-lost record, 49-47, is one of the weakest in the tournament.   Both Jones’ teams and Robinson’s teams were spectacularly successful, over the course of their careers.   Jones ranks second among the 66 players in "Team Success Percentage", behind Sal Bando, and Robinson ranks 7^th.   Robinson ranks that low only because of the teams that he played with at ages 18 through 22.

            Now, to the question of what do we actually believe. . .should we believe that Chipper’s advantages as a hitter are more important than Robinson’s advantages in the field. . . .well, the calculation of defensive value in our system does rely, to an extent, upon unverifiable assumptions and inexact parameters.   I use these assumptions and these parameters because they work better than any other that I can find.   I am less unhappy with these than any others—but they’re not perfect, and they’re not truly proven.    One can reasonably argue that Brooks’ fielding was more valuable than I have credited it with being.

            But here’s the best I can do.    We can estimate quite accurately how many runs Robinson created in his career (1,343), and we know how many outs he made (8,340).   In Robinson’s time and place, the league norm was 3.922 runs per nine innings.   For 8,340 outs, that’s 1,211 runs.   Robinson was 132 runs better than an average hitter.

            Chipper created 1,715 runs in his career, while making only 6,017 outs.   The offensive context in which he played was 4.623 runs per nine innings, which is 1,030 runs for 6,017 outs.   Jones was 685 runs better than an average hitter.

            Jones compared to Robinson, then, was about 553 runs better, as a hitter.   The question, then, is "could Robinson have been 553 runs better as a fielder?"

            That’s a lot of runs.    Let’s say that’s 35 runs a year.   Could Robinson have been 35 runs a year better, in the field, than Chipper Jones?

            Let us assume that one "run" is two plays.   35 runs a year is 70 plays a year. 

            Let’s say that a team has 4200 balls in play against them in a typical year.  It’s a little more than that, but even guys like Robinson and Jones will miss a hundred innings a year in the field, so. . .let’s say 4200.   Let us say that there are seven fielders who have to deal with those 4200 plays (excusing the catcher and the pitcher, whose defensive contributions are made in different ways.)   That leaves 600 potential plays per season per fielder. …roughly the same as his number of at bats or plate appearances.

            Nobody makes all of those plays, even Brooks Robinson.   I would speculate that the typical player would make about 68% of the plays in his area, that the best players might make 75%, and the worst defensive players around 60%.

            If all of this speculation is reasonable, then the difference between the best third baseman of a season—the Gold Glove winner—and the worst—Dean Palmer—might be 90 plays per season, 15% of 600.    Chipper Jones, however, was not the worst third baseman of his era.   He may not have been the best, but he was closer to the midpoint than he was to the worst.

            I think it’s really difficult to believe that Robinson was making 70 plays a year in the field beyond the number that would have been made by Chipper. . .possible, not absolutely out of the range of the conceivable, but difficult.

            Brooks Robinson played 25,038 innings at third base in his career and recorded 6,205 assists, or .248 assists per inning.   Chipper played 15,204 innings at third and recorded 3,089 assists, or .203 assists per inning.   If they played 1,400 innings a year at third base, that’s a difference of 62, 63 assists.

            This, however, is without adjusting for context.   Brooks Robinson’s pitchers typically struck out about 940 batters a year.   Chipper Jones’ pitchers typically struck out about 1100. . .let’s say 1080.   For seven fielders, that’s a difference of 20 per season in the number of balls hit in their zone.

            We are squaring in gradually on the point at which we can say we understand fielding records as well as we do hitting or pitching.   We’re not there yet, and I’m not going to say absolutely that Chipper was better than Brooks.   But that’s the best bet based on what I know.  Chipper wins.

            Hey, when I get some time I’ll try to add some other third basemen to the list. . . .Ventura has been asked about, Rico Petrocelli, Terry Pendleton, Darrell Evans, the original A-Rod (Aurelio).   Once I get them done, we’ll start blending in the other Hall of Fame candidates (Stan Hack, Larry Gardner, Heine Groh, Ed Yost) and then, eventually, the Hall of Famers (George Kell, Pie Traynor, Eddie M, Home Run Baker, Wade Boggs, Brett and Schmidt).    By then it will be Christmas.   Thanks for reading; hope you got something out of the tourney.