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BJOL 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot

By Dave Fleming

December 2, 2010

Just a quick recap, to anyone new to the site: for the last two years we’ve been holding votes for an alternative BJOL Hall of Fame ballot. We use the same criteria as the regular HOF: a player needs 75% of the vote to get elected, and any player who gets less than 5% of a vote is dropped off the ballot.

Readers cast their ballots (and make their arguments) in the comments section. Sometime next month I’ll tally the votes and announce who we’ve elected.

The BJOL Hall of Famers from the last two elections, ranked by percentage:

2009	2010
Rickey Henderson	Roberto Alomar
Tim Raines	Barry Larkin
Bert Blyleven	Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell

Tommy John has fallen off the real Hall of Fame ballot…he’s gone to the veteran’s committee. I considered keeping him on our ballot and ultimately decided to drop him. He hasn’t gotten any traction with the BJOL voters, so I think we should move on when the BBWAA moves on.

Jim Rice was not on last year’s ballot, but he should’ve been: he managed 5% of the vote in 2009, and he should’ve stayed on the ballot in 2010. So we can weigh in, again, on Jim Rice. Me: I’ll still take Gene Tenace.

Here’s our list for the 2011 BJOL Hall of Fame:

Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Harold Baines, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, Andre Dawson, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Al Leiter, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Raul Mondesi, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Kirk Rueters, Benito Santiago, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff, Larry Walker.

My Two Cents on the Candidates:

Carlos Baerga - CB and Roberto Alomar were both born in 1968, Alomar in February and Baegra in November. They were both second basemen, they are both from Puerto Rico. For a couple of years, they contested for the claim of best second baseman in the American League. Alomar won, of course: Robbie didn’t have the pop that Baerga had, but he was a superior defensive player and one of the best base runners of his day. For a while, Baerga gave him a challenge:

Alomar	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR
1992	105	8	76	.310	.405	.427	129	6.2
1993	109	17	93	.326	.408	.492	141	6.8
Baerga	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR
1992	92	20	105	.312	.354	.455	127	4.9
1993	105	21	114	.321	.355	.486	124	4.7

Jeff Bagwell – The one that got away.

Here’s a question: had Bagwell stayed with the Red Sox, would he have challenged Gehrig for the title of Best 1B of All-Time?

It is very likely that Bagwell would have passed a lot of Gehrig’s career numbers: Bagwell hit 449 homeruns, playing the first half of his career in the Astrodome. Had he spent those years in Fenway, I think he almost certainly would’ve reached 500 homeruns. Bagwell had eight 100+ RBI years, to Gehrig’s thirteen, and Bagwell was a dozen short of 100 RBI’s five times…he could have at least reached Gehrig on that count. Bagwell was 107 walks behind Gehrig, 1401 to 1508…he might’ve caught Gehrig on that, too. Doubles are 488 to 534, again in favor of Gehrig. I think Fenway would’ve made it closer.

I don’t think Bagwell was a better player than Lou Gehrig: he played in a high offense era (as did Gehrig) and his numbers aren’t nearly as dominating as Gehrig’s. But…he would’ve been a challenge to the Iron Horse.

Interesting fact: despite hitting 449 career homers, Bagwell never led the league in that category.

Bagwell was a helluva ballplayer: one of the top-5 first basemen to play the game, along with Gehrig, Foxx, Pujols, and whoever else you want. He made just four All-Star games, which just shows how many good first basemen there were in the major leagues during his career.

Harold Baines – Baines and Palmeiro have similar cases for the Hall of Fame: neither of them was ever really an MVP candidate, neither was ever thought of as an elite player, but both had long careers where they compiled impressive numbers. Baines hit 384 homeruns and tallied an astonishing 1628 RBI, the 29^th highest total ever.

According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Baines’ best season was 1991, when he hit 20 homeruns and posted a .383 on-base percentage as a DH for Oakland. He had a 3.7 WAR that year: he topped 3.0 in WAR just six times in 22 seasons.

Bret Boone - Boone’s WAR between 1997 and 2001:

Year	WAR
1997	-1.4
1998	1.2
1999	-0.3
2000	0.3
2001	9.3

His 2001 season has to be one of the most unlikely seasons of all-time, right up there with Norm Cash and Brady Anderson.

Kevin Brown – Sorry if I’m relying too heavily on WAR as a metric, but damned if it isn’t useful.

Conventional numbers first: Brown has a career record of 211-144, with an ERA of 3.28 (Adjusted ERA of 127). He has 2397 strikeouts, no Cy Young Awards, one 20-win season, two ERA titles. Judged by the traditional statistics, Brown has a solid case for the Hall, but not a great case.

The advanced metrics, however, make Brown look damned good.

Brown had a pitching WAR of 64.80, which ranks him just below Feller (66.00) and Drysdale (65.70) and just ahead of Carl Hubbell (64.40) and Juan Marichal (64.00). We have Brown at 242 Win Shares, which is a hair lower than Curt Schilling (252), but way higher than Andy Pettitte (206).

It’s a surprise to me, but there is a good argument that Kevin Brown had a Hall-of-Fame-caliber career. If only anyone cared to make that argument.

Andre Dawson – He’s still not in the BJOL Hall-of-Fame. It wasn’t his fault that he got the 1987 MVP.

John Franco – Franco has 183 Win Shares, which is really good for a closer. Trevor Hoffman has 188 Win Shares. Hoffman will make the Hall of Fame without any trouble, and I’m sort of surprised that Franco is still on the ballot, but it’s worth mentioning that saves aside, they are very similar pitchers:

Name	IP	K	BB	ERA	ERA+
Franco	1245.2	975	495	2.89	138
Hoffman	1089.1	1133	307	2.87	141

Hoffman has the slight edge in strikeouts, but Franco has about two seasons worth of innings pitched on Hoffman.

Juan Gonzalez – Juan Gonzalez’s Wikipedia page is really thorough:

"Gonzalez announced just before the 1999 All-Star Game that if the fans did not elect him to the starting lineup, he would refuse an invitation to be added to the roster (as a result he was not invited). A few weeks later Gonzalez refused to dress for the Hall of Fame exhibition game because the uniform pants the Rangers brought for him were too large."

It’s a fantastic read, and I applaud the author(s) who spent time on it. There is a nice breakdown most of Gonzalez’s big seasons, talking about his hot streaks and slumps, and where he is in the RBI race:

"He appeared to be on his way to easily capturing the RBI title, but an RBI drought at the end of the season (0 RBI in last 10 games) allowed Brett Boone to pass him by one."

Two MVP Awards and 434 homeruns aside, it is hard for me to see Igor as a Hall-of-Fame candidate. As a hitter, he has a great deal in common with Jim Rice: great Triple Crown numbers that were aided by favorable contexts, and a lot of hidden negatives (poor defense, a low on-base percentage, a habit of grounding into double plays, lousy base running) that people didn’t pay attention to.

Marquis Grissom – A player who did most things well: he was a fast (429 steals, led the league twice) smart base runner (79% success rate). He was a good outfielder (four Gold Gloves). As a hitter he once hit 39 doubles in a season, and had five years of 20+ homeruns. He hit .300 twice, walked about 40 times a season, didn’t miss many games. He played in three World Series, winning once with the Braves. He’s a coach now for the Washington Nationals. You could do a lot worse with a life than Marquis Grissom has.

Lenny Harris – Lenny Harris played 1903 major league games between 1988 and 2005, a stretch of years when I watched a lot of baseball, and I confess that I had no idea who the hell he was when I saw his name on the ballot. All I could think of was Lenny from The Simpsons.

Lenny Harris was a lifetime NL’er…he was moved nine times during his eighteen year career, and all nine times he went from an NL club to another NL club. He played for the Reds (twice), Dodgers, Mets (twice), Rockies, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Cubs, and Marlins.

Harris’s first year in the majors was 1988, when he played 16 games for the Reds. He has a batting average of .372 and an OPS of .815 during those sixteen games. Those marks were the highest of his career.

The second highest marks in batting average and OPS came during his last season in the majors, in 2005. The forty-year old Harris played 83 games for the Marlins, hitting .314 with a .799 OPS.

So Lenny Harris was best at the beginning and the end. I doubt that there is any other player in baseball for whom that was true. He’s unique.

Bobby Higginson – Another guy whom I know nothing about.

Higginson was a career Tiger…I suppose that I have a blind spot when it comes to the Tigers. We call a .300-30 HR-100 RBI season a Hall of Fame season…he had an on-the-nose HOF season in 2000, hitting exactly .300 with exactly 30 homeruns and 102 RBI’s. He actually reached it on the last day of the season, going 3-for-4 with three RBI’s.

He had another year, 1997, when he just missed it: 27 homeruns, 101 RBI’s, .299 batting average.

Roy Halladay remembers Bobby Higginson…during his second major league start, Halladay had a no-hitter going with two outs in the ninth inning, and Higginson broke it up, with a solo homerun.

Halladay was with the Blue Jays then, a teammate of Dave Steib. According to Wikipedia, Dave Steib caughtthe homerun ball in the bullpen. Steib, of course, lost three no-hitters with two outs in the ninth inning.

Charles Johnson – A fine defensive catcher who could hit a fair bit (147 homeruns), Johnson was a poor man’s Ivan Rodriguez, and thus a valuable player. He won four consecutive Gold Gloves from 1995 to 1998.

Al Leiter – Al Leiter had the ‘adding-on’ half of a Hall-of-Fame career, but injuries during his twenties kept him from building a real case. In his thirties, Leiter posted a W-L record of 129-100 with a 3.64 ERA. Unfortunately, he was just 33-32 during his twenties.

Leiter, a New Jersey native, spent eleven of his nineteen seasons pitching for New York teams, but he won his three World Series rings during his sojourns away (two with Toronto, one with the Marlins).

Edgar Martinez – As I said in the article I wrote last year about Edgar, I think it’s silly to hold him accountable for the designated hitter: he didn’t invent the rule; he just happened to play the position. Were he a bad defensive first baseman, he’d be elected. As a hitter, he is overqualified for the Hall of Fame.

Tino Martinez – Do you think that having two Martinez’s on the ballot will hurt Edgar’s chances? I bet it does…

The high-offense era of the late 1990’s is really hard to wrap one’s head around. In 1999, Tino hit .263 with 28 homeruns and 105 RBI’s…and his offensive WAR was 0.8…he was a win above a replacement level first basemen.

Don Mattingly – Wait…Tino Martinez replaced Don Mattingly, right? Interesting coincidence that they wind up next to each other on this list.

Mattingly….when I started collecting cards (1987), he was the guy you wanted. Him or Strawberry. Mattingly had four great seasons (1984-1987), plus two more all-star level years (1988 and 1989). It’s not a great resume, and I know that Palmeiro and Keith Hernandez and Will Clark and Fred McGriff are all more deserving, but I hope Mattingly gets in sometime. He has the exact same career statistics as Kirby Puckett, except for walks, strikeouts, and World Series rings.

Fred McGriff – Baseballreference has a handy guide to WAR: a WAR of 5.0 is about an All-Star level of talent. McGriff had four seasons at that level, which isn’t a helluva lot.

There is a huge glut of really good first basemen that played during the Steroid era: McGriff was an elite player before that era began, and his statistics look consistent because there was an offensive spike in the early 1990’s. It’s hard to sort out the really good players from the sort of good. I like McGriff, and I suspect that he’s been underappreciated by the voters. But…I’m mixed on his candidacy for the Hall.

Raul Mondesi – At the end of 1997, you would’ve thought Mondesi was a good candidate for the Hall of Fame. He was 26 that year…he hit .310 with 42 doubles, 30 homeruns, and 32 steals. He won his first Gold Glove in the outfield. His on-base percentage jumped from .334 to .360. He had 100 homeruns on his career, hadn’t had any injuries. His most comparable player was Billy Williams. Then Freddie Lynn. Then Dave Parker.

He didn’t get better: his on-base percentage went down, and his power reached a plateau. He still stole bases, but he never got really good at it. His strikeouts increased. He was twenty-six, and a lot of people thought the best was coming. I thought it…I thought he was going to break out and win some awards. It didn’t happen. We had already seen the best.

Jack Morris – I feel like everything that has been said about Morris has been said. He won a lot of games, and he won THE game. He also played on really good teams that scored a lot of runs for him, and he had a very high ERA.

I think his chances of getting elected by the BBWAA have declined. It’s entirely Bill’s fault.

Dale Murphy – Murphy has a career WAR of 44.2, which is a higher than Dave Parker (37.8) Jim Rice (41.5) and Ken Singleton (40.6), but way behind Dwight Evans (61.8) or Andre Dawson (57.0).

Actually, it’s amazing that Dewey ranks ahead of those guys. I always thought Dewey belonged in the conversation, but according to career WAR he’s leaps and bounds ahead of Rice, Parker, Murphy and Singleton, and an All-Star season ahead of Andre Dawson.

John Olerud – Another first baseman, Olerud wasn’t the sluggardly slugger that some of his peers on the ballot were, which actually helps him stand out against the maddening crowd. According to baseballreference’s WAR, Olerud had two MVP-caliber seasons, two seasons with a WAR of 8.0 (1993 and 1998). The 1993 season was memorable: he flirted with .400 for a good part of the season, and helped the Jays repeat as World Champs.

There are a lot of players in the Hall of Fame who never had a season with a WAR over 8.0…Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame, and he didn’t. Neither did Eddie Murray or Harmon Killebrew or Paul Molitor. My point is this: John Olerud was a really good player for those two seasons. His 1998 numbers were held down by Shea, but he was a terrific hitter and an excellent defensive first baseman. He’s probably not a Hall-of-Famer, but he had two major league seasons where he was better than most Hall-of-Famers.

Rafael Palmeiro – It is really, really hard to argue against a player with 569 homeruns, 1835 RBI’s, and 3020 hits.

Dave Parker – A rich man’s Jim Rice.

Jim Rice – A poor man’s Dave Parker.

Kirk Reuters – The winningest lefty in San Francisco Giants history, presumably until Zito passes him. After retirement, he moved to London and started a news agency.

Benito Santiago – How many players have their best professional season during their rookie year? Fred Lynn was great in 1975, but he was better in 1979. Ted Williams was a good rookie, but he had one or two highlights after that.

Benito won the Rookie of the Year award in 1987: he and Matt Nokes had big years, but Nokes had to get in line behind McGwire and Seitzer. Benito won his unanimously, as did McGwire. He was twenty-two during his rookie year, and he never really improved on that performance.

Lee Smith – I think Lee Smith is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Rollie Fingers or Bruce Sutter, and is about as deserving as Trevor Hoffman. I’d put him behind Goose.

BJ Surhoff – Surhoff was the first pick of the 1985 draft…people had high hopes for him. He was a pretty good ballplayer: he hit .320 in 1995 and had a bunch of solid seasons in the majors. It took him until he was thirty to get going, and most people had sort forgotten about him by then, but he had a fine career.

Larry Walker – How do we judge Larry Walker? He was a fine hitter: .313 career batting average, 383 homeruns, an Adjusted OPS of 140. He won seven Gold Gloves, had a terrific arm in rightfield. But…he played in Colorado, when it was an insane hitter’s park. He never led the league in WAR, and finished in the top-ten just four times.

He’s a hard case: I am interested to hear people’s thoughts about him.

Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.

COMMENTS (82 Comments, most recent shown first)

DaveFleming
My votes are going to:

Edgar Martinez. He'd absolutely be a HOF if he had been a first baseman, and sans the DH, I'm sure some team would've found a way to get that kind of a bat in the lineup. One of the 25 best hitters ever.

Bagwell. Obviously.

Kevin Brown. Very comparable to Curt Schilling. I'm not thrilled to vote for him, but he's a deserving candidate.

Dawson: I've been hard on the Hawk for years, but he's the most qualified OF on our ballot. He's no Dwight Evans, but he was a fine player.

Murphy. A better candidate than Parker or Rice.

Larry Walker. Coors and the outragous offensive era blur his case, but I think he's a deserving candidate.

Lee Smith. On par with Gossage, and better than Sutter or Fingers.

My apologies go to the four 1B's (McGriff, Mattingly, Olerud, and Palmeiro). I thought hard about each of those guys, but I couldn't pull the trigger on them. They are parallel players: Mattingly and Olerud had incredible peak seasons, but short careers. Palmeiro and McGriff played forever, but weren't ever great. In the end I passed on them all.
10:44 PM Jan 3rd

themiddle54
My ballot:
Jeff Bagwell
Kevin Brown
4:27 PM Jan 2nd

mferris106
Wow. Raffy at only 34% of the vote surprises me since we broke the seal by electing McGwire last year.
9:53 AM Jan 2nd

mferris106
Wow. Raffy at only 34% of the vote surprises me since we broke the seal by electing McGwire last year.
9:31 AM Jan 2nd

BrianFleming
Before I give you my ballot I should mention that I'm a big Hall guy and I'm a big believer that the 1980's represent a hugely under appreciate era in terms of baseball players and HOF votes. The 90's made the accomplishments of players in the 80's look like crap, so I vote strongly for guys from that era. I have limited evidence to back this up, but growing up and starting to collect cards in the mid 80's we all thought Dawson, Dewey Evans, Jim Rice, Dale Murphy, Jack Morris, Don Mattingly etc. would be HOF'ers! There was almost no doubt, if you hit 400 HR you were a lock, and even 380 made you a definite contender. I really think the HR explosion in the 90's changed everything, I remember when Cecil Fielder came out of now where hit 50 HR in a season and I thought it was amazing, then a few years later it was nothing.

so my vote:

Jeff Bagwell - Still giving Lou Gorman nightmares.
Edgar Martinez - The numbers are there.
Rafael Palmerio - 3000 hits, 500 HR vs. one failed steroid test his 20th year in baseball, I've got to go with those numbers.
Andre Dawson - A great 80's player.
Jack Morris - See above.
Dale Murphy - See above, the man won back to back MVP's (although, Mike Schmidit might have had a better case both years)
Don Mattingly - A vote for my brother (does this make us even for "the incident"?)
Bill the Cat - Since I'm stuck in the 80's.....
12:24 PM Dec 30th

jpjeter16
STATUS UPDATE: Just tallied the ballots so far -- I got Edgar at 42/56 (exactly 75%!)
Bagwell 95%
Edgar 75%
Smith 41%
Raffy 34%
McGriff 27%
Walker 21%
Morris 21%
Brown 20%
Dawson 16%
Murphy 13%
Rice 11%
Mattingly 9%
Parker 5%
Olerud 5%
Baines and Franco 2% (one vote)
Tommy John and Marvin Miller both have write-ins so far...
11:44 PM Dec 29th

shayneconfer
Bagwell, Edgar, Walker, Smith
1:30 PM Dec 23rd

mferris106
I vote for Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, and Palmeiro.
10:12 PM Dec 22nd

shpigler
Bagwell, Dawson
12:39 PM Dec 21st

bokonin
Bagwell, Brown, Dawson, E. Martinez, McGriff, Olerud, Walker. The thing about trying to discount Larry Walker's accomplishments for where he played is: lots of people had their stats boosted by playing for the Rockies, but none of them hit anything like .370 / .450 / .700 over a three year period (while playing excellent defense). Dude was a flat-out great player, which shouldn't have been a total surprise from his early work with the Expos.
8:39 AM Dec 19th

chuck
Bagwell, Edgar, Lee Smith, Fred McGriff.

I'm on the fence with Walker. Here are his road numbers, doubled:
1934 hits, 406 2b, 314 hr, 1114 rbi, 1132 runs. .278 / .370 / .495
These by themselves don't scream put him in to me. He comes out in the top 10 of right fielders for total zone runs above average. More than half of this was for his arm. I don't know that his great arm combined with the above numbers and good to decent range is enough. He and Edmonds are close, but I'd give the edge to Edmonds.

Edgar should have been playing by 1987 or at least 1988. Looking at his minor league stats, and what the M's were putting onto the field at the time, he could easily have been up in 1987 full time and doing a hell of a lot better than Jim Presley. Edgar's first full season of work came at age 27. If one takes his career averages and tacks on 2 and a half years' worth, his numbers look like:
2,690 hits, 617 2b, 369 hr, 1,459 runs, 1,509 rbi. .312/.418/.515.
His road numbers are .312/.412/.514, almost a dead even split to those at home.

As far as Palmeiro goes, I'm not saying his numbers don't seem Hall worthy. In this age of immediate gratification, however, I think a guy testing positive shortly after denying it under oath deserves to wait until he's somewhat older and grayer, or balder. I'm still pissed about Santo not getting in while alive, and it just doesn't seem right to let a Palmeiro stroll through the ropes without a wait. He also benefited from friendly home parks, if not to Walker's extent. His road ops is .868. While good, would drop him about 30 places on the all-time list, and put him not far above Olerud. I believe Palmeiro also benefited from a livelier ball, and that his .502 road slugging pct would have been a lot closer to .450 in the previous era. In fact, it was .457 from '86 through '92.

McGriff is a hard case. He and Palmeiro started about the same time, and McGriff was much the better slugger until the offensive explosion began in 1993-94. McGriff's slg pct was .528 up through 1992; Palmeiro's .457. McGriff's ops+ 154 to Palmeiro's 127. I think that without a livelier ball McGriff ends up with close to 425 homers. McGriff had nine years of greater than 140 ops+; Palmeiro had 7.
3:47 PM Dec 13th

patchguy32
I vote for
Brown
Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
McGriff
12:15 AM Dec 11th

MWeddell
I'll vote for
Bagwell
Brown
Dawson
E. Martinez

I was on the fence regarding Walker and hence was probably easily swayed by Dave's write-up which leaned against.

No against Palmeiro due to flunking a steroid test, not due to performance. I don't think the Hall can exclude all of the suspected steroid users, but I'm inclined to discriminate against those who used once MLB truly started enforcing a steroids ban.
11:23 AM Dec 10th

paulc
Yes For the BJol to;
Bagwell,Edgar Martinez,John Franco,Dale Murphy, Lee Smith and
MARVIN MILLER!(Who the vet Cmte snubbed again I see).
12:41 PM Dec 7th

taosjohn
Bagwell, Palmiero and Lee Smith
11:19 AM Dec 6th

tiller88
Too late for much deep analysis at the moment, but my votes at least are easy to write down:

Bagwell
Palmeiro
Smith

And there ain't no more.

9:58 PM Dec 5th

MarisFan61
BTW: I'm particularly interested to see how the BBWAA's % for PALMEIRO will compare with ours -- because it will (IMO) be a *fairly direct indicator* of the difference of opinion on the significance of the PED issue.

Looking at the votes so far on this page (and I know that there are add'l votes to be counted from the "Reader Posts" page, as well as further voting right here), it looks to me like our result for Palmeiro so far is:
16/46 = 35%

I'm guessing the BBWAA will have him *way lower* than 35% -- and IMO they should.
My guess? 10%.
9:51 PM Dec 5th

MarisFan61
RCBERLO: re Walker, "as someone once argued about Klein, there is just too much to ignore him" -- that was Bill, and I think he later changed his mind. :-)
5:06 PM Dec 5th

doncoffin
Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Jim Rice (with reservations)
8:45 AM Dec 5th

meanmike0001
Jeff Bagwell, Andre Dawson, Jack Morris, Jim Rice, Dave Parker
1:40 AM Dec 5th

Kev
Forgot to include my choices in my comment on Walker.

Anyway:

Bagwell

Edgar, For years I said "no Dh's". But he was just too damn good.

McGriff, a great and obedient dog for many, many years. So Consistent, his prime was his career. Really, what does a guy have to do?

Lee Smith--my favorite zorch-ball

Larry Walker: Take away his injuries, take away the Coors edge. He looks good.
Include his fielding, his speed, his arm, none of which are affected by Coors. He's in.

1:26 AM Dec 5th

JOHNGARCIA
I'm only voting for 2 this year:

Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez

BTW Since you don't seem to know Lenny Harris, he has the most pinch-hit hits in history with 212. I have a Strat-O-Matic League and our NL-style league is named the Lenny Harris League for the pinch-hit leader. AL League is actually named Edgar Martinez so it's nice to see them both on the HOF ballot, although only Edgar should be in the Hall.

8:50 PM Dec 4th

Scott_Ross
Jeff Bagwell is the only guy I feel confident about, but I'd listen to arguments for Edgar, Brown and Walker.
7:11 PM Dec 4th

rcberlo
I'm going with Bagwell, Brown, E. Martinez, Palmeiro, Smith, Walker. I think Walker is a bit like Chuck Klein: impressive numbers inflated by favorable park. But, as someone once argued about Klein, there is just too much to ignore him.
5:32 PM Dec 4th

bearbyz
I am going with Bagwell, E. Martinez and Lee Smith.
3:40 PM Dec 4th

Scott_Ross
Jeff Bagwell is the only guy I feel confident about, but I'd listen to arguments for Edgar, Brown and Walker.
12:46 PM Dec 4th

jollydodger
Bagwell
E. Martinez
Palemiro

That is all.
12:05 PM Dec 4th

PeteDecour
I would also vote for Edgar Martinez. did not mean to forget him
11:49 AM Dec 4th

PeteDecour
I would vote for Bagwell, McGriff, Jack Morris, Palmeiro, McGriff, Lee Smith.

Morris was a terrific pitcher who for most of his career won the games himself with much less help than modern pitchers get. Most comparable pitchers are in, and most should be.

McGriff was a great hitter, Bagwell and Palmeiro should go in without argument. Lee Smith was a star closer for 14 years. Anyone doing key job as one of the best around for 14 years, that is a Hall of Famer of the Goose Goslin type definition.
11:42 AM Dec 4th

sayhey
Something I pointed out on another message board (sorry if someone's made the same point already): In his MVP year, Walker had more homers (29-20) and a higher slugging pct. (.733-.709) on the road. I don't know what his career splits were as a Rockie, but that at least suggests that they weren't as drastic as most Colorado players.
8:45 AM Dec 4th

MarisFan61
(oops, KeltNer!)
2:53 AM Dec 4th

MarisFan61
VENTBOYS: Thanks for the additional reply -- and I'm sorry that my first post seemed like it did. I really didn't mean it that way.
Regarding what we ought to do with "the numbers" from that era, I see it sort of as you said, but more complexly. I would want to know a lot more about *whose* performance was more likely or less likely to have been affected in which ways and degrees. As I've written elsewhere on the site, I am assuming a much more varied possible range of effects for different players than most people seem to assume. My "intellectual dumbfoundedness" (which sounded in the earlier post like moral outrage) is due to an intense bafflement over how so few people seem to feel we ought to know more about it before enshrining people. It's not about "punishment," but about not knowing enough yet to assert a 'permanent' decision.

That aside....If we forget about that issue and just consider what you raise about how we should look at Bagwell's numbers in a stat-inflated era, as you know there's a fairly easy way to get a quick fix on it: looking at how he stood year-by-year among league leaders. And on that basis, I think the result is about the same as what your nice "Kelter List" (on Reader Posts) seems to show: that we could argue it either way.
2:50 AM Dec 4th

lazer
Jeff Bagwell

Andre Dawson

Edgar Martinez

Fred McGriff

Jack Morris

Rafael Palmeiro

Jim Rice

Lee Smith

1:18 AM Dec 4th

ventboys
Marisfan, I completely agree with you about one thing: The numbers compiled from 1994-2004 (or so) have to be adjusted downward. This is where comparisons to league leaders, OPS+, etc. are important. There were a couple of pitchers from the deadball era (Addie Joss comes to mind) that might have gotten in only because of the era that they played in. Joss, though, had a career era of 1.89. Even in that period, 1.89 ain't chopped liver. Bags put up some huge numbers, and even with a discount for the times his numbers are terrific. Terrific enough? Someone should do a Keltner on him....
11:46 PM Dec 3rd

ajmilner
Jeff Bagwell
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Lee Smith
11:38 PM Dec 3rd

MarisFan61
Dave: About BAGWELL.....I think his actual home-road splits don't seem to suggest quite what you're saying about "if he played at Fenway." It looks like for whatever reason, his numbers weren't hurt much by playing in the Astrodome, unless it's that the ballpark made him change his general approach in such a way that it hurt him on the road. Here are his career splits (from baseball-ref.com):
Home: 234 HR, 779 RBI's (and .303 BA)
Away: 215 HR, 750 RBI's (and .291 BA)
.....in comparable numbers of games and PA's (slightly more games at home, slightly more PA's on the road)

I'm not saying he wouldn't have done ANY better in a hitter's park like Fenway, but.....as much better as what you assumed?

P.S. Regarding how he only made a few all star teams despite his terrific numbers, because of how the other 1B's were doing, this seems to me like another context where you are leaving the "800-pound gorilla" loudly unmentioned.
11:01 PM Dec 3rd

mkrob
Jeff Bagwell
Lee Smith
Edgar Martinez

Thanks!
9:02 PM Dec 3rd

JimPertierra
Bagwell, Brown, Edgar Martinez, Lee Smith
I wish I could feel justified in voting for Mattingly but, to be honest, when he and Winfield were there together, I thought Winfield was always given the back seat to DM without justification. I also wish I could justify Dave Parker too because for 5 years the Cobra was THE man.
4:51 PM Dec 3rd

jalbright
Bagwell
Dawson
E. Martinez
L. Walder
3:51 PM Dec 3rd

rtallia
Bagwell
Edgar

Let's keep it exclusive, folks...
3:38 PM Dec 3rd

paranoiaagent
Kevin Brown
Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
3:00 PM Dec 3rd

izzy24
Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
2:54 PM Dec 3rd

metsfan17
I just don't see many hall of famers in this crop. But that's by our current standards. If you use historical hall of fame standards, then there are many hall of famers here because many of these guys are better than a lot of guys already in. However, I think we have to go by what we know now and I just don't see anybody else other than Bagwell and Morris. Smith is a closer and I think that is a joke job. I loved Parker when he was young and from 75-79 he was the best player in the game but he just didn't sustain it. Same with Mattingly and Murphy.
2:25 PM Dec 3rd

dburba
Bagwell
Dawson
Palmeiro (pardon me while I shower)
Rice
Walker
2:25 PM Dec 3rd

schoolshrink
McGriff
Edgar
Mattingly
Bagwell
Morris
1:57 PM Dec 3rd

agcohen

Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Lee Smith
Larry Walker

And, since you considered putting him on the ballot,
Tommy John

Thinking of Tommy John, who is now known mostly for the surgical procedure, shouldn't Dr. Frank Jobe be inducted by the Veteran's committee for his contributions to baseball?

1:46 PM Dec 3rd

Kev
In the Dirty Ball Era, the things later outlawed were not held against their users on HOF inclusion. The same thing will probably happen to those in the PED Era. The true, but sad answer is "that's the way the game was played in those days so the players must be judged in that context."
The question is, why should anyone give a damn about HOF membership when the playing fields have been so unequal? The answer is we shouldn't. And that's a shame.

About Walker: not a hard case at all, in my opinion..

First, you can have the Coors issue(normalize his Coors stats)

Second, I get the injuries issue (project a normal career and come up with some reasonable games lost and add the stats gained by decreasing games lost to injury, and adding those stats

Third, Walker's consistent excellent fielding is not affected by Coors. Neither is his speed. Neither is his throwing arm and its accuracy

If you don't want him, send him to me.
1:25 PM Dec 3rd

sdbunting
Bagwell
Crime Dog
E. Martinez
Murphy
12:20 PM Dec 3rd

TomStrother
Bagwell, Edgar, Rice, Mattingly. Jack Morris
10:50 AM Dec 3rd

schoolshrink
McGriff
Edgar
Mattingly
Bagwell
Morris
10:34 AM Dec 3rd

rtayatay
Bagwell and Palmeiro.
10:30 AM Dec 3rd

mikeclaw
I cast my votes for Bagwell, Palmeiro and Edgar Martinez.

For a long time now, I have lumped Rice, Dawson, Parker and Murphy together and said they are all more or less equally qualified for the Hall of Fame. I couldn't vote for one without voting for the other three, and I don't want to vote for all four.

I would consider adding Mattingly, but at this point, he doesn't get my vote. I certainly consider Lee Smith, but he doesn't have my vote.

9:48 AM Dec 3rd

rpriske
My ballot:
Jeff Bagwell
Andre Dawson
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Dale Murphy
Rafael Palmeiro
Dave Parker

8:40 AM Dec 3rd

sprox
Put me down for Bagwell, K Brown, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmeiro, Lee Smith and Larry Walker

I know there are a lot of good 1B in the HOF already but McGriff did those Tom Emansky videos and that puts him over the top

for Lee Smith and Rafael Palmeiro you have to respect the counting numbers ... its ridiculous to say somebody amassed great numbers just by hanging out for a really long time. Thats like saying you lost the chess game only because your opponent had more pieces at the end.

Larry Walker was dominant and the Coors effect isn't enough to bring him down to the level of the unwashed masses
8:27 AM Dec 3rd

monahan
Bagwell
Edgar
Palmeiro
Walker

As far as PEDs: I think it's silly to think that time will clarify this. In the same way that time has clarified who definitely did and didn't scuff the ball, or who did/didn't use greenies, or who did/didn't use cocaine? You can sit back and wait for facts, but you will never ever have all of the facts. So it comes down to suspicion, and I don't think it's fair to discount what someone actually did on the baseball field based on what he *might* have used and *assuming* that he wasn't part of an overwhelming majority of players doing the same thing.

We know Palmeiro used steroids, but is it "cheating" if everyone else in MLB was also using steroids? Sure, that's an unlikely scenario, but at what threshold is it punishable, if 90% were also using? 80%? 50%? It's a moving target that will never have a conclusive answer.

4:14 AM Dec 3rd

papahans5
frankly, i don't think this is a particularly HOF-worthy crop. A lot of excellent ballplayers who just don't rise to what i feel is a HOF level: mattingly, baines, tino, crimedog, murphy, dawson. to vote for ten of them just because they happen to be on this year's list seems silly.

I love Edgar, and if he is ultimately elected to the the real HOF, i'll be glad for him, but the DH thing just holds me back. it's not his fault, but...it's there.

palmiero? unlike Bonds, without PEDs the guy doesn't sniff 500 hrs or 3,000 hits. and he shouldn't sniff the HOF. i'm a little PED-suspicious about bagwell, too, so i'm willing to wait a few years and see how things fall out for him.

walker was a tremendous hitter, but the colorado thing hurts him, plus, even paying in coors field, he didn't end up with career numbers to put him in.

the only one who gets my vote is Morris. yeah, yeah, i know, but Wins still do count, especially when you have a pile of them, topped with all-time World Series heroics.
3:56 AM Dec 3rd

MarisFan61
DON: So far it's just you and me who see it that way.....
2:18 AM Dec 3rd

DHM
Edgar Martinez.
That's it, until the truth about PEDs comes out I can't in good conscience vote for Bagwell (probably the most deserving of the HOF) or Palmeiro (who I never liked anyway, and even less after his congressional statements). McGriff is in the same category as Will Clark, Mattingly, Murphy, Rice, Parker, and Dawson. Very good, even outstanding ballplayers for a couple years, but didn't do enough to merit induction. Just my opinion.
2:07 AM Dec 3rd

MarisFan61
VENTBOYS: Sorry if it sounded like "moral" outrage.
Maybe my crack about "principled" made it seem more that way, despite my phrasing it in terms of my *not* being that principled, plus indicating it as a joke anyway.

It's not moral outrage, in the least.
It's intellectual dumbfoundedness.
1:02 AM Dec 3rd

evanecurb
MarisFan:

I thought your question deserved an answer. PED use is a legitimate issue that has yet to be resolved, in spite of the fact that a lot of people on this site have grown weary of discussing it. I have heard most of the arguments on both sides and have decided that, if I were in the BBWAA, I wouldn't consider PED use as a factor. I don't have a great justification for my position other than this: PED was so wide spread for so long, and there was no punishment for it, that it was, in fact, allowed to exist. The distinction between something being not allowed in the rules but is allowed in practice is not that important to me.

My major beef with the whole PED thing is that the BBWAA and a lot of baseball fans have decided that Hall of Fame voting is their way of punishing players for using PEDs when only a fraction of the PED users are anywhere near Hall of Fame worthy. We are, in fact, punishing success, albeit success that was achieved with the benefit of an allowed but illegal practice.

On the other hand, if none of those guys ever get in, I won't lose one bit of sleep over it.

My brain hurts.
1:01 AM Dec 3rd

ventboys
Marisfan, the Hall of Fame voters a remarkably similar moral issue before, in the dead ball era. The pitchers that used spitballs, emory balls, shine balls, etc. were inducted without any real discounting of their stats. Later pitchers like Whitey Ford, Gaylord Perry and Don Sutton were also inducted.

Your moral outrage is noted. Calling others out for not agreeing with you is, in my opinion, going a bit far.
11:58 PM Dec 2nd

ventboys
Here is my list. I picked 10, basically in descending order:

Jeff Bagwell- obvious to me
Andre Dawson- in the real Hall now
Edgar Martinez- agree with you, Dave; couldn’t have said it better
Fred McGriff- Steroid era backlash makes him a stronger candidate
Don Mattingly- Veteran’s committee will eventually vote him in
Jack Morris- Wrote a lot of history
Dale Murphy- Chuck Klein type career
Rafael Palmeiro- Not getting in for awhile, but his numbers are huge
Lee Smith- I’ll go along, but not really a strong supporter
Harold Baines- Tony Oliva lite, but played much longer after knee problems

11:47 PM Dec 2nd

Jongro
Bagwell, Palmeiro, Edgar, Lee Smith
11:36 PM Dec 2nd

MarisFan61
EVAN: Thanks for the reply. I didn't expect that anyone would address the point, in view of how nobody else here had even 'breathed' it yet.

I'm *with you* on virtually all the details, but I just have a different view on how we should deal with such a thing: I say that if there's a lot of "We just don't know," the thing to do for something 'permanent' like the HOF is to WITHHOLD JUDGMENT -- until we know more and until most of the smoke clears.

On Bagwell, you put it even more strongly than I would have, and I'm 'pleasantly' surprised (if it makes sense to say 'pleasantly' about such an issue) that anyone but me would have singled him out -- and I wasn't going to.
I consider him highly suspect, but not "in the Sosa category"; I view Sammy as being as close to 100% as you can get this side of Mac and Palmeiro.

11:04 PM Dec 2nd

evanecurb
MarisFan 61:

PEDs were used widely during the 1990s, but I honestly don't know how widely, so I am not able to put usage in context. If I had to venture a guess, I'd put it this way for the BBWAA candidates:

McGwire and Palmeiro: Duh
Boone: Hell yes.
Bagwell: As I said before, he's in the Sosa category as far as I'm concerned. Never caught, but the contextual evidence is there, change in appearance and in power production between 1991 and 1994,
As for the others, how in the heck are we supposed to make any judgement one way or the other? Walker and Martinez were big strong guys but so was Jimmy Foxx, y'know? Did Carlos Baerga or Raul Mondesi use PEDs? They were muscular guys, too. It becomes impossible to distinguish after a while.

Hell, as I've said before, I think all of 'em probably did during that era, except of course those who are moral, upright citizens, like Andy Pettitte. Hey, wait a minute.......
10:01 PM Dec 2nd

DaveFleming
Thanks, Evan. I'll make sure the votes on the thread in Readers are counted.
10:00 PM Dec 2nd

MarisFan61
Look, folks. :-)
It's one thing to hold the opinion that PED's "shouldn't" matter, and to guess that at some supposed time in the future nobody will care.

But it's another thing to pretend they're not in the picture and that they don't play any role in how we evaluate them.

I'm almost inclined to "conscientiously object" to this whole thing because y'all 'elected' McGwire already, but what they heck, I'm not *that* principled. :-)

The absence of mention of PED's when stating PALMEIRO's stats is, IMO, the height of head-in-the-sand. And not having any apparent thought about withholding judgment on some of the other guys till more light gets shed and smoke gets cleared......I honestly DO NOT GET IT.

My vote (and I'm not necessarily against all the others, just withholding some judgment):

Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Jack Morris
Lee Smith
8:49 PM Dec 2nd

evanecurb
Dave:

Thanks for putting this together again. I appreciate the work it takes and it is a lot of fun. Are you willing to do the same thing for the Veterans Committee vote? Here's my ballot

Bagwell
Palmeiro
Brown
Smith
Walker
Edgar Martinez
McGriff
Mattingly
Murphy
Morris

As you probably guessed, I'm a big tent guy. I try to always vote for ten. Morris vs. Dawson was a tough choice for number 10. I almost wrote in Lou Whitaker or Dave Stieb.

Did you notice how many extremely common surnames are on the ballot this year? Bagwell and Surhoff really stand out. It seems like the only common last names that are missing are Jones, Wilson, and Rodriguez.
8:06 PM Dec 2nd

myachimantis
And according to B-R, Pujols passed 8.0 WAR seven times. You may have been looking at oWAR accidentally. Unless you were using another source for WAR...
8:06 PM Dec 2nd

myachimantis
I vote for Bagwell, Brown, Edgar, Olerud, and Walker
8:01 PM Dec 2nd

chill
Small error in the article - McGwire is listed on the ballot, but was already elected. I vote Edgar, Bagwell, Lee Smith.
7:42 PM Dec 2nd

metsfan17
Most of these guys were very good ballplayers but I just don't see many hall of famers in the bunch. I would vote for Bagwell which is a no brainer and Morris which is very borderline. However, he was perhaps the best pitcher in the 80's and a great postseason pitcher. Not overwhelming but I would put him in as well.
7:06 PM Dec 2nd

Ben71
My vote would be J. Olerud, E. Martinez, and J. Bagwell.
Not ready to vote for Palmeiro, didn't really think much of him as
a player despite the career numbers.
On the fence about L. Smith, close but a little short.
6:33 PM Dec 2nd

cderosa
Bagwell, Parker, Palmeiro, McGriff.

These are the four people who would be on my real hall of fame ballot if I had one, along with six other people who are already in your (our) hall of fame but not the real one.

6:20 PM Dec 2nd

jpjeter16
(I don't think my vote went through the first time. If it did, ignore this)

Jeff Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Kevin Brown
Lee Smith
6:16 PM Dec 2nd

mikewright
Bagwell, McGriff, Murphy and Edgar.

McGriff might be the last HOF 1B with a normal career arc. He should get in on that alone. In addition to the numbers, he had an impact on pennant races, most notably the last real pennant race.
6:05 PM Dec 2nd

Steven Goldleaf

I'll vote for Jeff Bagwell and Jim Rice
6:04 PM Dec 2nd

rgregory1956
I'm only voting for two this year: Lee Smith and Jeff Bagwell

And just so you know, the "Bob" above is an imposter. I'm the real Bob.
4:55 PM Dec 2nd

borisP
Bagwell
Edgar
Raffy
4:50 PM Dec 2nd

ghoulama
Bagwell and E Martinez
4:48 PM Dec 2nd

bobburpee
I vote for Bagwell, Brown, E. Martinez, and McGwire.
4:10 PM Dec 2nd

jdw
It would be nice if we had W-L Shares for some of the candidates on edge: Murphy, Mattingly, Olerud and Parker. I would love to see Olerud vs Mattingly vs Hernandez, as I think the two OBP guys tend to expose Mattingly similar to the old Gil Hodges Group showed that Gil's numbers were very common.
4:08 PM Dec 2nd

BJOL 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot

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