Just a quick recap, to anyone new to the site: for the last two years we’ve been holding votes for an alternative BJOL Hall of Fame ballot. We use the same criteria as the regular HOF: a player needs 75% of the vote to get elected, and any player who gets less than 5% of a vote is dropped off the ballot.
Readers cast their ballots (and make their arguments) in the comments section. Sometime next month I’ll tally the votes and announce who we’ve elected.
The BJOL Hall of Famers from the last two elections, ranked by percentage:
2009
|
2010
|
Rickey Henderson
|
Roberto Alomar
|
Tim Raines
|
Barry Larkin
|
Bert Blyleven
|
Mark McGwire
|
Alan Trammell
|
|
Tommy John has fallen off the real Hall of Fame ballot…he’s gone to the veteran’s committee. I considered keeping him on our ballot and ultimately decided to drop him. He hasn’t gotten any traction with the BJOL voters, so I think we should move on when the BBWAA moves on.
Jim Rice was not on last year’s ballot, but he should’ve been: he managed 5% of the vote in 2009, and he should’ve stayed on the ballot in 2010. So we can weigh in, again, on Jim Rice. Me: I’ll still take Gene Tenace.
Here’s our list for the 2011 BJOL Hall of Fame:
Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Harold Baines, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, Andre Dawson, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Al Leiter, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Raul Mondesi, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Kirk Rueters, Benito Santiago, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff, Larry Walker.
My Two Cents on the Candidates:
Carlos Baerga - CB and Roberto Alomar were both born in 1968, Alomar in February and Baegra in November. They were both second basemen, they are both from Puerto Rico. For a couple of years, they contested for the claim of best second baseman in the American League. Alomar won, of course: Robbie didn’t have the pop that Baerga had, but he was a superior defensive player and one of the best base runners of his day. For a while, Baerga gave him a challenge:
Alomar
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
1992
|
105
|
8
|
76
|
.310
|
.405
|
.427
|
129
|
6.2
|
1993
|
109
|
17
|
93
|
.326
|
.408
|
.492
|
141
|
6.8
|
Baerga
|
R
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS+
|
WAR
|
1992
|
92
|
20
|
105
|
.312
|
.354
|
.455
|
127
|
4.9
|
1993
|
105
|
21
|
114
|
.321
|
.355
|
.486
|
124
|
4.7
|
Jeff Bagwell – The one that got away.
Here’s a question: had Bagwell stayed with the Red Sox, would he have challenged Gehrig for the title of Best 1B of All-Time?
It is very likely that Bagwell would have passed a lot of Gehrig’s career numbers: Bagwell hit 449 homeruns, playing the first half of his career in the Astrodome. Had he spent those years in Fenway, I think he almost certainly would’ve reached 500 homeruns. Bagwell had eight 100+ RBI years, to Gehrig’s thirteen, and Bagwell was a dozen short of 100 RBI’s five times…he could have at least reached Gehrig on that count. Bagwell was 107 walks behind Gehrig, 1401 to 1508…he might’ve caught Gehrig on that, too. Doubles are 488 to 534, again in favor of Gehrig. I think Fenway would’ve made it closer.
I don’t think Bagwell was a better player than Lou Gehrig: he played in a high offense era (as did Gehrig) and his numbers aren’t nearly as dominating as Gehrig’s. But…he would’ve been a challenge to the Iron Horse.
Interesting fact: despite hitting 449 career homers, Bagwell never led the league in that category.
Bagwell was a helluva ballplayer: one of the top-5 first basemen to play the game, along with Gehrig, Foxx, Pujols, and whoever else you want. He made just four All-Star games, which just shows how many good first basemen there were in the major leagues during his career.
Harold Baines – Baines and Palmeiro have similar cases for the Hall of Fame: neither of them was ever really an MVP candidate, neither was ever thought of as an elite player, but both had long careers where they compiled impressive numbers. Baines hit 384 homeruns and tallied an astonishing 1628 RBI, the 29th highest total ever.
According to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Baines’ best season was 1991, when he hit 20 homeruns and posted a .383 on-base percentage as a DH for Oakland. He had a 3.7 WAR that year: he topped 3.0 in WAR just six times in 22 seasons.
Bret Boone - Boone’s WAR between 1997 and 2001:
Year
|
WAR
|
1997
|
-1.4
|
1998
|
1.2
|
1999
|
-0.3
|
2000
|
0.3
|
2001
|
9.3
|
His 2001 season has to be one of the most unlikely seasons of all-time, right up there with Norm Cash and Brady Anderson.
Kevin Brown – Sorry if I’m relying too heavily on WAR as a metric, but damned if it isn’t useful.
Conventional numbers first: Brown has a career record of 211-144, with an ERA of 3.28 (Adjusted ERA of 127). He has 2397 strikeouts, no Cy Young Awards, one 20-win season, two ERA titles. Judged by the traditional statistics, Brown has a solid case for the Hall, but not a great case.
The advanced metrics, however, make Brown look damned good.
Brown had a pitching WAR of 64.80, which ranks him just below Feller (66.00) and Drysdale (65.70) and just ahead of Carl Hubbell (64.40) and Juan Marichal (64.00). We have Brown at 242 Win Shares, which is a hair lower than Curt Schilling (252), but way higher than Andy Pettitte (206).
It’s a surprise to me, but there is a good argument that Kevin Brown had a Hall-of-Fame-caliber career. If only anyone cared to make that argument.
Andre Dawson – He’s still not in the BJOL Hall-of-Fame. It wasn’t his fault that he got the 1987 MVP.
John Franco – Franco has 183 Win Shares, which is really good for a closer. Trevor Hoffman has 188 Win Shares. Hoffman will make the Hall of Fame without any trouble, and I’m sort of surprised that Franco is still on the ballot, but it’s worth mentioning that saves aside, they are very similar pitchers:
Name
|
IP
|
K
|
BB
|
ERA
|
ERA+
|
Franco
|
1245.2
|
975
|
495
|
2.89
|
138
|
Hoffman
|
1089.1
|
1133
|
307
|
2.87
|
141
|
Hoffman has the slight edge in strikeouts, but Franco has about two seasons worth of innings pitched on Hoffman.
Juan Gonzalez – Juan Gonzalez’s Wikipedia page is really thorough:
"Gonzalez announced just before the 1999 All-Star Game that if the fans did not elect him to the starting lineup, he would refuse an invitation to be added to the roster (as a result he was not invited). A few weeks later Gonzalez refused to dress for the Hall of Fame exhibition game because the uniform pants the Rangers brought for him were too large."
It’s a fantastic read, and I applaud the author(s) who spent time on it. There is a nice breakdown most of Gonzalez’s big seasons, talking about his hot streaks and slumps, and where he is in the RBI race:
"He appeared to be on his way to easily capturing the RBI title, but an RBI drought at the end of the season (0 RBI in last 10 games) allowed Brett Boone to pass him by one."
Two MVP Awards and 434 homeruns aside, it is hard for me to see Igor as a Hall-of-Fame candidate. As a hitter, he has a great deal in common with Jim Rice: great Triple Crown numbers that were aided by favorable contexts, and a lot of hidden negatives (poor defense, a low on-base percentage, a habit of grounding into double plays, lousy base running) that people didn’t pay attention to.
Marquis Grissom – A player who did most things well: he was a fast (429 steals, led the league twice) smart base runner (79% success rate). He was a good outfielder (four Gold Gloves). As a hitter he once hit 39 doubles in a season, and had five years of 20+ homeruns. He hit .300 twice, walked about 40 times a season, didn’t miss many games. He played in three World Series, winning once with the Braves. He’s a coach now for the Washington Nationals. You could do a lot worse with a life than Marquis Grissom has.
Lenny Harris – Lenny Harris played 1903 major league games between 1988 and 2005, a stretch of years when I watched a lot of baseball, and I confess that I had no idea who the hell he was when I saw his name on the ballot. All I could think of was Lenny from The Simpsons.
Lenny Harris was a lifetime NL’er…he was moved nine times during his eighteen year career, and all nine times he went from an NL club to another NL club. He played for the Reds (twice), Dodgers, Mets (twice), Rockies, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Cubs, and Marlins.
Harris’s first year in the majors was 1988, when he played 16 games for the Reds. He has a batting average of .372 and an OPS of .815 during those sixteen games. Those marks were the highest of his career.
The second highest marks in batting average and OPS came during his last season in the majors, in 2005. The forty-year old Harris played 83 games for the Marlins, hitting .314 with a .799 OPS.
So Lenny Harris was best at the beginning and the end. I doubt that there is any other player in baseball for whom that was true. He’s unique.
Bobby Higginson – Another guy whom I know nothing about.
Higginson was a career Tiger…I suppose that I have a blind spot when it comes to the Tigers. We call a .300-30 HR-100 RBI season a Hall of Fame season…he had an on-the-nose HOF season in 2000, hitting exactly .300 with exactly 30 homeruns and 102 RBI’s. He actually reached it on the last day of the season, going 3-for-4 with three RBI’s.
He had another year, 1997, when he just missed it: 27 homeruns, 101 RBI’s, .299 batting average.
Roy Halladay remembers Bobby Higginson…during his second major league start, Halladay had a no-hitter going with two outs in the ninth inning, and Higginson broke it up, with a solo homerun.
Halladay was with the Blue Jays then, a teammate of Dave Steib. According to Wikipedia, Dave Steib caughtthe homerun ball in the bullpen. Steib, of course, lost three no-hitters with two outs in the ninth inning.
Charles Johnson – A fine defensive catcher who could hit a fair bit (147 homeruns), Johnson was a poor man’s Ivan Rodriguez, and thus a valuable player. He won four consecutive Gold Gloves from 1995 to 1998.
Al Leiter – Al Leiter had the ‘adding-on’ half of a Hall-of-Fame career, but injuries during his twenties kept him from building a real case. In his thirties, Leiter posted a W-L record of 129-100 with a 3.64 ERA. Unfortunately, he was just 33-32 during his twenties.
Leiter, a New Jersey native, spent eleven of his nineteen seasons pitching for New York teams, but he won his three World Series rings during his sojourns away (two with Toronto, one with the Marlins).
Edgar Martinez – As I said in the article I wrote last year about Edgar, I think it’s silly to hold him accountable for the designated hitter: he didn’t invent the rule; he just happened to play the position. Were he a bad defensive first baseman, he’d be elected. As a hitter, he is overqualified for the Hall of Fame.
Tino Martinez – Do you think that having two Martinez’s on the ballot will hurt Edgar’s chances? I bet it does…
The high-offense era of the late 1990’s is really hard to wrap one’s head around. In 1999, Tino hit .263 with 28 homeruns and 105 RBI’s…and his offensive WAR was 0.8…he was a win above a replacement level first basemen.
Don Mattingly – Wait…Tino Martinez replaced Don Mattingly, right? Interesting coincidence that they wind up next to each other on this list.
Mattingly….when I started collecting cards (1987), he was the guy you wanted. Him or Strawberry. Mattingly had four great seasons (1984-1987), plus two more all-star level years (1988 and 1989). It’s not a great resume, and I know that Palmeiro and Keith Hernandez and Will Clark and Fred McGriff are all more deserving, but I hope Mattingly gets in sometime. He has the exact same career statistics as Kirby Puckett, except for walks, strikeouts, and World Series rings.
Fred McGriff – Baseballreference has a handy guide to WAR: a WAR of 5.0 is about an All-Star level of talent. McGriff had four seasons at that level, which isn’t a helluva lot.
There is a huge glut of really good first basemen that played during the Steroid era: McGriff was an elite player before that era began, and his statistics look consistent because there was an offensive spike in the early 1990’s. It’s hard to sort out the really good players from the sort of good. I like McGriff, and I suspect that he’s been underappreciated by the voters. But…I’m mixed on his candidacy for the Hall.
Raul Mondesi – At the end of 1997, you would’ve thought Mondesi was a good candidate for the Hall of Fame. He was 26 that year…he hit .310 with 42 doubles, 30 homeruns, and 32 steals. He won his first Gold Glove in the outfield. His on-base percentage jumped from .334 to .360. He had 100 homeruns on his career, hadn’t had any injuries. His most comparable player was Billy Williams. Then Freddie Lynn. Then Dave Parker.
He didn’t get better: his on-base percentage went down, and his power reached a plateau. He still stole bases, but he never got really good at it. His strikeouts increased. He was twenty-six, and a lot of people thought the best was coming. I thought it…I thought he was going to break out and win some awards. It didn’t happen. We had already seen the best.
Jack Morris – I feel like everything that has been said about Morris has been said. He won a lot of games, and he won THE game. He also played on really good teams that scored a lot of runs for him, and he had a very high ERA.
I think his chances of getting elected by the BBWAA have declined. It’s entirely Bill’s fault.
Dale Murphy – Murphy has a career WAR of 44.2, which is a higher than Dave Parker (37.8) Jim Rice (41.5) and Ken Singleton (40.6), but way behind Dwight Evans (61.8) or Andre Dawson (57.0).
Actually, it’s amazing that Dewey ranks ahead of those guys. I always thought Dewey belonged in the conversation, but according to career WAR he’s leaps and bounds ahead of Rice, Parker, Murphy and Singleton, and an All-Star season ahead of Andre Dawson.
John Olerud – Another first baseman, Olerud wasn’t the sluggardly slugger that some of his peers on the ballot were, which actually helps him stand out against the maddening crowd. According to baseballreference’s WAR, Olerud had two MVP-caliber seasons, two seasons with a WAR of 8.0 (1993 and 1998). The 1993 season was memorable: he flirted with .400 for a good part of the season, and helped the Jays repeat as World Champs.
There are a lot of players in the Hall of Fame who never had a season with a WAR over 8.0…Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame, and he didn’t. Neither did Eddie Murray or Harmon Killebrew or Paul Molitor. My point is this: John Olerud was a really good player for those two seasons. His 1998 numbers were held down by Shea, but he was a terrific hitter and an excellent defensive first baseman. He’s probably not a Hall-of-Famer, but he had two major league seasons where he was better than most Hall-of-Famers.
Rafael Palmeiro – It is really, really hard to argue against a player with 569 homeruns, 1835 RBI’s, and 3020 hits.
Dave Parker – A rich man’s Jim Rice.
Jim Rice – A poor man’s Dave Parker.
Kirk Reuters – The winningest lefty in San Francisco Giants history, presumably until Zito passes him. After retirement, he moved to London and started a news agency.
Benito Santiago – How many players have their best professional season during their rookie year? Fred Lynn was great in 1975, but he was better in 1979. Ted Williams was a good rookie, but he had one or two highlights after that.
Benito won the Rookie of the Year award in 1987: he and Matt Nokes had big years, but Nokes had to get in line behind McGwire and Seitzer. Benito won his unanimously, as did McGwire. He was twenty-two during his rookie year, and he never really improved on that performance.
Lee Smith – I think Lee Smith is more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Rollie Fingers or Bruce Sutter, and is about as deserving as Trevor Hoffman. I’d put him behind Goose.
BJ Surhoff – Surhoff was the first pick of the 1985 draft…people had high hopes for him. He was a pretty good ballplayer: he hit .320 in 1995 and had a bunch of solid seasons in the majors. It took him until he was thirty to get going, and most people had sort forgotten about him by then, but he had a fine career.
Larry Walker – How do we judge Larry Walker? He was a fine hitter: .313 career batting average, 383 homeruns, an Adjusted OPS of 140. He won seven Gold Gloves, had a terrific arm in rightfield. But…he played in Colorado, when it was an insane hitter’s park. He never led the league in WAR, and finished in the top-ten just four times.
He’s a hard case: I am interested to hear people’s thoughts about him.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.