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2011 BJOL HOF Results

By Dave Fleming
January 5, 2011
 
First, the results:
 
Name
Total Votes
Percentage
Jeff Bagwell
57
95%
Edgar Martinez
44
73%
Lee Smith
24
40%
Rafael Palmeiro
20
33%
Fred McGriff
15
25%
Larry Walker
14
23%
Jack Morris
13
22%
Kevin Brown
13
22%
Andre Dawson
11
18%
Dale Murphy
9
15%
Don Mattingly
7
12%
Jim Rice
6
10%
 Dave Parker
4
7%
John Olerud
3
5%
Harold Baines
1
2%
John Franco
1
2%
Juan Gonzalez
0
0%
Tino Martinez
0
0%
Raul Mondesi
0
0%
Al Leiter
0
0%
Carlos Baerga
0
0%
Bret Boone
0
0%
Marquis Grissom
0
0%
Lenny Harris
0
0%
Bobby Higginson
0
0%
Charles Johnson
0
0%
Kirk Reuters
0
0%
Benito Santiago
0
0%
B.J. Surhoff
0
0%
 
Jeff Bagwell was elected to our version of the Hall of Fame. He joins the 2009 class of Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven, and Alan Trammell, and 2010 inductees Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, and Mark McGwire. His certificate of merit and a coupon good for half-off a Dairy Queen Blizzard is being airmailed to him as we speak.
 
Edgar Martinez fell just short. Actually, he missed being elected by one vote…I’m sure he’s not nearly as broken hearted about this as I am.
 
Lee Smith continues to get lukewarm support from the BJOL voters, while Rafael Palmeiro and Larry Walker surround Fred McGriff as candidates who are getting about a fourth of the votes. Jack Morris and Kevin Brown are neck-and-neck among BJOL voters.
 
Two actual Hall-of-Famers, Jim Rice and Andre Dawson, failed to gain traction with BJOL voters, with Dawson netting 18% of the vote and Rice getting 10%. Harold Baines, after two years of valiantly staying alive, will fall off both ballots next year. John Olerud fell off the BBWAA ballot, but he
manages to hang on ours for another vote.
 
Comparing BJOL and the BBWAA
 
There was a lot of agreement between the BJOL and the BBWAA ballots this year:
 

 

Player
BJOL
BBWAA
Difference
Name
Percentage
Percentage
in Percentages
 Dave Parker
7%
15%
8%
Fred McGriff
25%
18%
7%
Lee Smith
40%
45%
5%
Juan Gonzalez
0%
5%
5%
John Olerud
5%
1%
4%
Larry Walker
23%
20%
3%
Harold Baines
2%
4.8%
3%
John Franco
2%
4.6%
3%
Dale Murphy
15%
13%
2%
Don Mattingly
12%
14%
2%
Tino Martinez
0%
1%
1%
Raul Mondesi
0%
1%
1%
Al Leiter
0%
1%
1%
Carlos Baerga
0%
0%
0%
Bret Boone
0%
0%
0%
Marquis Grissom
0%
0%
0%
Lenny Harris
0%
0%
0%
Bobby Higginson
0%
0%
0%
Charles Johnson
0%
0%
0%
Kirk Reuters
0%
0%
0%
Benito Santiago
0%
0%
0%
B.J. Surhoff
0%
0%
0%

 

 
Both groups agreed that Todd Zeile and Lenny Harris are not Hall-of-Fame players, which goes to show that deep down there isn’t a tremendous difference between the opinions of BJOL readers and the Hall-of-Fame voters of the BBWAA.
 
Different players survived the 5% hatchet on different ballots: Juan Gonzalez netted 5.2% of votes from the BBWAA, which means he stays on their ballot for another year, but falls off ours. John Olerud will not stay on the BBWAA ballot, but he’s staying on the BJOL ballot, at least for one more year. Harold Baines and John Franco came valiantly close to staying on the BBWAA ballot, but they don’t round up decimals at Copperstown.   
 
Both groups will continue to argue the cases of Lee Smith, Dave Parker, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, and Donnie Baseball.
 
Now, the players we couldn’t disagree on, starting with the players favored by the BBWAA:
 

 

Player
BJOL
BBWAA
Difference
Name
Percentage
Percentage
in Percentages
Jim Rice
10%
76%
66%
Andre Dawson
18%
78%
60%
Jack Morris
22%
54%
32%

 

 
For Rice and Dawson, I used the percentages they got from the BBWAA last year. There is still a sizeable gap in opinion between the BBWAA voters and the BJOL voters.
 
I don’t know how long we should keep Jim Rice on the ballot. I suppose that he’ll drop off when the big names come down the pike in 2013, but so long as he gets 10%, I think he’s worth having.
 
Andre Dawson….I voted for Dawson this year, after not voting for him in the past. I don’t think he’s a better player than Larry Walker, but he is a better than Dale Murphy or Dave Parker or Jim Rice.
 
Jack Morris continues to get robust support from the BBWAA, landing on more than half the ballots cast this year. One suspects that voters are starting to fold their defenses on Morris. Now that Blyleven is in, I wouldn’t be surprised if Morris makes it in next year, on a swell of support from pro-win, anti-WAR voters.
 
Here are the players favored by the BJOL, but disliked by the BBWAA:
 

 

Player
BJOL
BBWAA
Difference
Name
Percentage
Percentage
in Percentages
Jeff Bagwell
95%
42%
53%
Edgar Martinez
73%
33%
40%
Rafael Palmeiro
33%
11%
22%
Kevin Brown
22%
2%
20%

 

 
I think Joe Posnanski has it exactly right on Bagwell: there is no evidence that Bagwell used steroids: his name comes up in none of the leaks that came out during those years, and he himself has gone to great lengths to say that he didn’t use steroids. As a) there is no evidence he used, and b) he says he didn’t use, I think the only reasonable course of action is to take his word on it.
 
I think he wasn’t elected by the BBWAA because they think he used steroids. I mean, what other reason could there possibly be for not electing him?
 
So the 58% of BBWAA writers who didn’t vote for Bagwell aren’t going to vote for anyone of that era, right? Because if they’re going to play the ‘guilt-by-association’ card on Bagwell, they damned well better be consistent with Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux and Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera when they show up on the ballot.
 
I get that some people will not vote for Barry Bonds...personally, I think it’s silly to not vote for him, but there is that stupid morality clause, and Bonds was an obvious steroid user. I’d vote for him, but I think it’s reasonable to not vote for him.
 
But Bagwell? There is NO proof. There is NO evidence. There is only suspicion. There is only presumption. I think it’s dangerous to make presumptions about other people without facts, and I think it’s a shame that the 58% of the BBWAA writers who didn’t vote for Bagwell were so quick to do exactly that.
 
Edgar…Edgar lost a little ground with the BBWAA, (36 percent to 32 percent) but he’s gaining with us.
 
Sooner or later we’ll have a DH in the real Hall-of-Fame. It is going to happen, in the same way that relief pitchers were elected to the Hall of Fame. It is a position that one major league allows players to play, and eventually one of those players will be elected.
 
Right now, Edgar Martinez is the best Designated Hitter of All-Time. He is #1. Actually, he’s about a million miles ahead of the pack. I think, as we’re going to elect a DH sooner or later, we might as well start with the very best.
 
Rafael Palmeiro got more support from the BJOL readers than the BBWAA voters. I didn’t vote for Rafael, not because he used steroids, but because I think his numbers (unlike Bagwell’s) are a reflection of a bloated offensive era.
 
There is no denying the Raffy has staggeringcareer numbers: 569 homeruns AND 3020 hits AND 1835 runs batted in are  really tough to ignore. But he led the league in exactly three categories: runs scored (once), doubles (once) and hits (once). He never won an MVP, didn’t deserve at least one of the Gold Gloves he won, and was never considered one of the game’s best players. Like Harold Baines, he was really good for a really long time, but I don’t know that he was ever great.
 
That said, I could be swayed to vote for him.
 
Finally, Kevin Brown.
 
Kevin Brown fell off the BBWAA ballot, getting just 12 votes from the 581 writers.

This was a colossal mistake. Whatever Kevin Brown’s personality, he deserved more consideration than he received. The writers, by-and-large, ignored him: they ignored a pitcher whose career numbers are very similar to the numbers to the numbers of Don Drysdale, Catfish Hunter, and Curt Schilling. According to Pitching WAR, Brown is the 34th best pitcher in baseball history, just behind Bob Feller and Don Drysdale and just ahead of Carl Hubbell and Juan Marichal.
 
So: Bagwell is elected, and Edgar came tantalizingly close. See you again next year.
 
BJOL HOF Inductees:
 
2009
2010
2011
Rickey Henderson
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Barry Larkin
Bert Blyleven
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
 
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com. He hopes that Bert Blyleven and Roberto Alomar won’t forget about our (fake) Hall, now that they’re in the real one.
​
 
 

COMMENTS (20 Comments, most recent shown first)

bearbyz
From our vote you preaching to the choir about Bagwell. I think a great majority of us have the same opinion.
12:26 PM Jan 8th
 
THBR
To do as I always do, and in response to ventboy's comment: yes, how ABOUT Gaylord Perry? Who not only acknowledged that he used an illegal pitch, but BRAGGED about it? C'mon, BBWAA voters, how can you endorse one and not the other? Or to put it properly, how can you condemn one and not the other?
9:51 AM Jan 8th
 
Steven Goldleaf
My take on PEDs and HoF votes is that I will probably have no problem electing Clemens, McGwire, and even Bonds (whom I detest) after they are dead, and from them on I don't really mind electing other players from the PED-era, but I don't like the idea of honoring these players while they're still alive to enjoy the fruits of being elected. In an odd way, my position is pretty much the opposite of the argument to elect certain deserving players while they're alive. In the case of the suspected PED-users, I WANT them to live with the anxiety that their use cost them dearly, that it was wrong, that without it maybe they could have been elected on their own ability, etc. Once they're safely dead, we're just talking about their numbers and whether those numbers warrant election, which of course in most cases, they clearly do.
9:04 AM Jan 8th
 
evanecurb
Marisfan:

We never seem to tire of this topic. I disagree that the accomplishments of the PED users are "not real." They happened. The runs that were scored as a result counted, as did the outs that were recorded. The reality is that PED use made its way into the fabric of the game; it became commonplace, and in fact was allowed to happen. Within this environment, some players succeeded, and others did not. Bagwell succeeded. Whether he did so with the help of PEDs is of no consequence to me, because at the time, PED use was, at a minimum, allowed to exist without consequences, and at worst, was actually encouraged.
11:31 PM Jan 7th
 
MarisFan61
The most striking aspect of the BJOL results is how much less concern there is over the PED factor, and I have a very hard time understanding that.

DAVE: I extremely disagree with your premise on this factor.

You seem to view it essentially as "innocent unless there's reasonable doubt" -- i.e. that the burden would be to demonstrate reasonable suspicion.
I, and apparently many of the voters, see it the opposite way: the need to dispose of any reasonable suspicion.

Since voting someone into the HOF is an IRREVOCABLE decision, wouldn't you want to be pretty sure his accomplishments were "real" (or, as Bob Costas put it, "authentic"), before enshrining him? Why shouldn't the "reasonable doubt" factor operate on this side, rather than how you are assuming?

Maybe you assume we'll never know more about the issue, either generally or as applied to specific players, than we do now. (I think we almost certainly will.) Or, maybe it doesn't bother you much that we might make enshrinement decisions that we'll soon regret. It bothers me a lot, and fortunately it seems to bother a lot of the voters too.

If the HOF process were amended to allow removal, that would be a different story, and then I might perhaps be able to see it your way. Under the current rules, I cannot.
9:59 PM Jan 7th
 
ventboys
Are we going to reenact the McCarthy era, and blacklist anyone with big muscles from the Hall of Fame? If the BBWAA were to do that, think of the ramifications. Bonds, Clemens, Palmiero, McGwire and Sosa will be joined on the sidelines by the other 1990's and 2000's stars (other than Griffey), and they will stop electing anyone by 2015.
12:39 PM Jan 7th
 
evanecurb
Dave:

I LOVE your idea about going backwards and picking up guys who were on the ballot prior to 2009. It seems most fair to include it with our regular vote, so that Sutter, Clark, etc. have to compete with Morris, Mattingly, etc. I think you can go backwards in one fell swoop and pick up everyone who didn't make it on the first ballot. I mean, there's really no point in voting on Ripken or Boggs, but it would be fun to vote on Sutter, Gossage, Eckersley, Will Clark, Sandberg, and Lou Whitaker.
11:16 AM Jan 7th
 
evanecurb
Dave:

I don't agree with you or Posnanski on the Bagwell/Steroids thing. If, as a Hall of Fame voter, one believes that PED use in the steroid era was (1) very widespread and (2) is a violation so egregious that it disqualifies a player from being in the Hall of Fame, then there are many approaches a voter can take. Yours and Posnanski's approach is but one of these. Another approach would be to look at circumstantial evidence such as power surges, changes in appearance, dropoff when testing began, or erratic behavior i.e. "rage". A third approach is the "sniff test" where you simply use your best judgement.

In my opinion, Bagwell and Martinez don't pass the second or third tests and voters are within their legitimate discretion to reject them. I'm not convinced that Alomar passes the second test, by the way, but I am in the minority there.

Having said all of that, I voted for Bagwell, Martinez, McGwire, and Paul Mairo, too. I believe those who eliminate PED users from consideration are, in effect, punishing successful PED users while ignoring the greater problem, which is that it became so ingrained in the game as to be the norm.
11:08 AM Jan 7th
 
rgregory1956
Without putting a lot of thought into it, just going on gut instinct, my 2012 ballot will have just two names: Lee Smith and Bernie Williams. My 2013 ballot will have those same two names (since I don't think we'll elect either one next year), plus Bonds, Piazza and Biggio.
5:59 AM Jan 7th
 
rgregory1956
I have to admit that I think next year's BJOL Hall of Fame vote will be pretty boring. I'd imagine that Edgar Martinez will be the only one we select, tho I doubt if I'll be voting for him. And it's anybody's guess who come in a distant second. It's the 2013 BJOL HOF vote that I'm looking most forward to. New first-timers will be Sosa, Bonds, Biggio, Piazza, Clemens, Schilling, Wells and Lofton. There's potential for a lot of fun (and heated) debate.

As a side note about Jim Rice: I'd leave him off the ballot, Dave. Since he retired in 1989, he'd have had his 15 years on the ballot.
5:53 AM Jan 7th
 
ventboys
I look forward to the day when PED use and spitball use are considered to be the same thing. Hell, in 500 years they will probably be considered to have happened at the same time.
3:04 AM Jan 7th
 
Richie
OK, a little (all I'm gonna do) research netted me Bryant Gumbel and some HoF voter named Graziano. And an SI article with a very cryptic quote from an anonymous former player. Nothing more of a concrete nature from my cursory search.
10:54 PM Jan 6th
 
Richie
Been a little while since I ticked people off on this site. Perhaps this'll get me back up to quota.
10:25 PM Jan 6th
 
Richie
I guess I'm the only one who doesn't like the Posnanski article. His technical position on the issue is pretty much exactly my technical position. Except I don't think those taking the opposing position are taking a morally degrading position. Which he pretty darn clearly does believe.

I mean, the '1 imprisoned innocent worse than 100 free guilty' does apply to prison, for goodness' sake. Suggest the same thing should apply to Hall of Fame membership, well. I might have more sympathy for the guy arguing the opposite end of that.
10:23 PM Jan 6th
 
Richie
Taking Bagwell's/any ballplayer's "word for it" regarding steroids may well make ethical sense. Logically, it's senseless, unreasonable. Which eventually proven user DIDN'T start off by saying "nahh, I didn't use them"? It's a perfectly nonvarying (ergo) nonvariable. So of no diagnostic use.

I apparently have missed out on the initial part of this. Who raised suspicions re Bagwell? And how many actual HoF voters have said they left him off for that very reason?
10:11 PM Jan 6th
 
DaveFleming
Will Clark was on the 2006 ballot. He recieved 4.6% of the vote and was summarily booted.

Next year (get ready VB), I have the idea that we should work the ballot forwards AND backwards...we throw on the players from the 2008 (and maybe 2007) ballot that we didn't vote on b/c this site is young. Each year we move a couple years backwards, so that we can eventually build a parallel version of the HOF.

I think it would mean two seperate ballots: one with the 2012 guys and one with the older guys. I'll kick it around.

Actually...I might do that this month...maybe post one group for a month or so and have people vote. I have to think about how it would work, but...it'd be fun.
1:53 AM Jan 6th
 
DaveFleming
Thanks, Jpjeter, for the eagle eyes....I got those numbers off the ESPN article, and I must've mixed 'em up when I tossed 'em on the spreadsheet. I THINK it's fixed now (and I think my comments are adjusted accordingly).
1:46 AM Jan 6th
 
ventboys
Just curious, what happened to Will Clark?

Re. Raffy, I've written about his numbers and his "B-12" shot at length over at reader posts, so I won't belabor that. I agree with you completely, and I even referenced Baines in my own opinion post.
12:25 AM Jan 6th
 
3for3
While Bagwell is an obvious HOFer, all else being equal, Bill pointed out that he and Mize are very similar players, and Bagwell started much higher than Mize did. I doubt that all of the Bagwell deniers did so only on the suspicion of his steroid use.
9:49 PM Jan 5th
 
jpjeter16
@Dave Some of your numbers for the BBWAA vote seem off. Per bbwaa.com, Smith received 45% of their vote (you had 33%), Morris received 54% (38%), Bagwell got 42% (24%), Edgar got 33% (20%). These seem to be the only numbers that are off, and seem to correspond with totals that players we have already elected to the BJOL HOF received (Raines got 38%, Trammell got 24%,...).
8:28 PM Jan 5th
 
 
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