We’re talking about two players, one active and one retired. We’ll use pseudonyms to protect their identities.
This article will be (mostly) looking at hitting statistics. Before we get to those statistics, I should mention that these two players have a great deal in common beyond numbers that are counted three decimal places down:
-Both players are/were corner outfielders, and good defensive players.
-Both players possess(ed) good speed. Good, not great.
-Both players hit left-handed.
-Both players were born on Long Island, New York.
-Both players are white, and of eastern European ancestry.
-Both players have names that suggest this.
-Both men played in the same league, in the same division.
-Both men have played on one major league team for the entirety of their careers.
Getting to the numbers….to illustrate the close parallels between these two players, I’m breaking things down by age. We’ll start with Age 22:
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
22
|
160
|
43
|
19
|
.296
|
.363
|
.469
|
3.7
|
|
N.Crabcakes
|
22
|
147
|
25
|
16
|
.291
|
.351
|
.448
|
3.4
|
At age twenty-two, both men were full-time players. They had similar years: Beaneater showed a little more power, but Crabcakes posted a similar WAR, mostly because he rated as an superior defensive player.
Both men were quality players at twenty-two...if you’re hitting close to .300 at that age, you’re doing something right.
And the two men had another thing in common: they both played on losing baseball teams. Beaneater’s team won just 76 games, while Crabcakes’ team notched just 70 victories on the season.
Moving on to their Age-23 seasons:
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
23
|
151
|
40
|
14
|
.321
|
.418
|
.475
|
6.2
|
|
N.Crabcakes
|
23
|
161
|
43
|
23
|
.300
|
.362
|
.485
|
3.5
|
The next year, both players improved on their previous season. Beaneater’s batting average spiked to an impressive .321 mark, and his on-base percentage jumped over .400. Crabcakes also crossed the .300 line, and while his on-base percentage was lower, he showed a bit more pop, hitting twenty-three homeruns to C.B.’s fourteen.
But…those individual improvements did nothing to help their teams. Beaneater’s team went from 76 wins to…76 win. Crabcakes’ team went from 70 to 69 wins. This pattern would continue.
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
24
|
151
|
29
|
15
|
.289
|
.374
|
.451
|
3.2
|
|
N.Crabcakes
|
24
|
157
|
48
|
20
|
.306
|
.406
|
.491
|
5.5
|
At age twenty-four, the players branched off a bit. Beaneater’s stellar batting average fell 32 points, and his on-base percentage dropped below .400.
But Crabcakes continued to build on his successes: his batting average improved to .306, and his on-base percentage topped .400 for the first time. He hit 20 homeruns and a staggering 48 doubles.
Both men again played full seasons…and both of their team’s endured another losing year. Beaneater’s club 72 games…in the three years chronicled his team’s win totals have dropped from 76 to 76 to 72. Crabcakes’ team won 68: in his three seasons, his team has won 70, 69, and 68 games.
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
25
|
133
|
45
|
20
|
.312
|
.395
|
.536
|
4.1
|
|
N.Crabcakes
|
25
|
161
|
45
|
18
|
.293
|
.347
|
.453
|
2.7
|
At twenty-five, the two men switched roles: Beaneater bounced back from a disappointing year to again post a batting average over .300. More significantly, Beaneater topped 20 homeruns for the first time.
Crabcakes took a step back: his homerun dropped below 20 for the first time in three years, and his average took a dip south of .300. The one positive was the forty-five doubles that Crabcakes hit: a total matched by Beaneater.
Like clockwork, both men’s teams continued to play terrible baseball. Actually, both of their teams continued their trend of getting incrementally worse each year: for the first time, both players played on sub.400 teams: Beaneater’s team posted a .383 winning percentage, while Crabcakes’ team posted a .395 mark.
Let’s put that into a table….the total wins for each man’s teams, by age:
|
Age
|
Beaneater
|
Crabcakes
|
|
22
|
76
|
70
|
|
23
|
76
|
69
|
|
24
|
72
|
68
|
|
25
|
62
|
64
|
At this point, you could say that the shine was off the apple. Sure, Beaneater and Crabcakes were good young players. But neither of them had attained the greatness that their earlier years had hinted at: both players seemed to be in a kind of stasis: they weren’t improving. And: their teams weren’t winning anything. Their teams kept getting worse.
You know what started to happen: the conversation shifted. People stopped talking about the ‘promise’ of these young players, and they started talking about the losses they had endured. The fans started to doubt that these promising youngsters would bring salvation to their teams. The press started to wonder if maybe these youngsters were responsible for all of the losing.
Neither player did anything to stop that talk during their next season:
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
26
|
160
|
39
|
16
|
.278
|
.368
|
.431
|
4.6
|
|
N.Crabcakes
|
26
|
160
|
45
|
12
|
.297
|
.370
|
.436
|
3.2
|
Amid those creeping clouds of doubt, C. Beaneater and N. Crabcakes posted another disappointing season. Both men played the whole season - 160 of 162 games – and both men were disappointments. Beaneater’s batting average dropped from .312 to .278, and his homeruns dropped below 20. Crabcakes hit the fewest homeruns of his career, and he failed to top a .300 batting average.
And: their teams continued to lose. Crabcakes’ club won just 66 games, while Beaneater’s team won 72. The two clubs combined to finish fifty-six games out of first place.
The Turning
Here’s a tally of their stats, Ages 22-26:
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
22-26
|
755
|
196
|
84
|
.299
|
.383
|
.471
|
21.8
|
|
N.Crabcakes
|
22-26
|
786
|
206
|
89
|
.298
|
.368
|
.463
|
18.3
|
Same player: lots of doubles, a few homers, a solid batting average, and a lot of games played. They were okay players: over five major league seasons, the two men revealed exactly what they were: good ballplayers. The consensus was that they would probably remain good…but people were no longer watching out for greatness.
And: they were losers. Every year their teams started spring training with the wild optimism of March season, and come October those same teams would be at the back of the pack, looking up twenty-five or thirty games. They had proved that, too.
Coming into his Age-27 season, C. Beaneater broke camp to start another year in the major leagues. If you had asked at the time, most people would have anticipated another good year. And most people would’ve expected his team to again finish at the bottom of the standings.
Here’s C. Beaneater did during his Age-27 season:
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
27
|
161
|
31
|
44
|
.326
|
.418
|
.622
|
12.2
|
Actually, that’s not right. Let’s fix it:
|
Name
|
Age
|
Games
|
2B
|
HR
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
|
C. Beaneater
|
27
|
161
|
31
|
44
|
.326
|
.418
|
.622
|
12.2
|
C. Beaneater led the league in homeruns, runs batted in, and batting average, winning the Triple Crown, He also led the league in runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, total bases…just in about all the stats that existed back then. He led the league in WAR, Win Shares, and OPS+, too: he’s ahead in most of the stats that we’ve invented since.
He had a historically great season. He also turned around any talk about him being a loser: Over the final month of the season, with his team in a dogfight with four other clubs, C. Beaneater hit .417, with an on-base percentage of .507. During the last two games of the season, which his team had to win, C. Beaneater went 7-for-8 with six runs batted in, two runs scored, and a homerun. His team won both games and went to the World Series. Against the Cardinals, C. Beaneater hit .400, with a .500 on-base percentage, three homeruns, four walks, five runs batted in, and four runs scored. His team pushed a great team to a seventh game. When the season was over, C. Beaneater was awarded a Gold Glove and the American League MVP.
C. Beaneater is, of course, Carl Yastrzemski, the last major leaguer to win a Triple Crown.
And N. Crabcakes is Nick Markakis, the right fielder for the Baltimore Orioles.
The Future of N. Crabcakes
Nick Markakis is having a good spring: at this moment his batting average is a robust .378, and half of his hits have gone for extra bases. It’s not talked about, because it’s spring training and there’s so much to talk about with the Orioles, who have reengineered a big chunk of their lineup. There are plenty of new faces, and most of the talk is about those new faces. The attention, for once, isn’t on Markakis.
This has to be a good thing, right? The pressure being off, I mean.
I remember reading Carl Yastrzemski’s autobiography…he talked a lot about being the star of the Red Sox during all those losing seasons. He talked about taking over for Ted Williams, and not quite being Ted Williams. He was made the team captain, which (if I’m recalling things correctly) he absolutely didn’t want. He was the face of the ballclub, and he didn’t seem to want that kind of attention.
(Actually, he still doesn’t: guys like Tiant and Fisk and Dwight Evans and Jim Rice are always showing up to Fenway Park. But not Yastrzemski; I can’t remember the last time I saw him during a Red Sox broadcast. He’s almost certainly the best living Red Sox, but he seldom makes appearances or talks about it. He stays out of the limelight.)
When Dick Williams took over in 1967, he took away the ‘captain’ title from Yastrzemski. This is from memory, but I think that Yastrzemski was relieved about this: he didn’t want to be the center of attention. He didn’t want to tell others what to do. He just wanted to do his job.
(Going really far afield here: that’s Lebron James, too. That’s why he went to the Heat: he didn’t want to be the biggest star. He just wanted to do his job. He wanted to be part of a team. I was watching the Heat play the Thunder last week, and it was strange to see Lebron ceed the starring role to Dwayne Wade. But: he’s okay with it. I suppose it’s time the rest of us got okay with it, too.)
I don’t know anything about Nick Markakis’s personality…I don’t know how much or how little he likes the spotlight, and I don’t know how difficult he’s found all of the losing years in Baltimore. What I doknow is that he’s been the guy on that team for a long time: the team’s most prominent player. And: he’s had to bear the burden of having a string of disappointing years, a string of years where he’s seemed to tread water.
I think that a lot of that has changed this year. For the first time in a long time, no one is talking about him. The fans, the press, the media; they’re all talking about Vlad and Lee and Hardy and Reynolds. They’re talking about Buck Showalter and last year’s hot finish. They’re talking about the young arms. They’re talking about Jason Fox’s insane spring. They’re not talking about Nick Markakis, and whether he’ll finally put it together this year. They’re not talking about the 60 RBI’s from last season, or the big contract.
It might help. I think that Buck Showalter absolutely will help: I think Showalter is one of those managers who is exceptionallygood at figuring out what is required to help his player succeed. Dick Williams made changes that helped Yastrzemski become the great player he was in 1967; I think Showalter could do the same for Markakis and Wieters and Matusz and some of the other Orioles players.
I think that the parallels Markakis and Yastrzemski are eerie: the stories are uncannily close…Markakis and Yastrzemski have endured the same early successes and the same mid-career struggles. They’re very similar players: by any metric, they overlap. Markakis has echoed Yastrzemski every step of the way, and now the Orioles have hired the current incarnation of Dick Williams to construct another impossible dream. The only question now is whether Markakis can continue to mirror Yaz.
Am I predicting that Nick Markakis will win the Triple Crown in 2011? No. Not will.
How about ‘might’?
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, suggestions, and Nick Markakis bobbleheads both here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.