Is this gimmick getting old?
What’d you do last year? (Checking) You ‘tweeted’ the National League. That’s timeless stuff right there. We should do that again.
Excuse me for accessing new modes of communicating. Are we starting with the West again?
Sure. The Rangers won the American League pennant. We can start there.
What are the chances they repeat?
I didn’t pick any of the National League teams to repeat, so I have to start picking someone to carry over their success. I’ll take the Rangers.
Why?
Well…there are two kinds of winning teams. There are teams that win because they have everything coalesce for them, everything go right. These are the teams that don’t repeat, the one-shot wonders. They’re a bank heist in the movies.
And the other kind?
The other kind has a real level of talent, and can win even if some of their guys falter, or struggle. To my mind, the Rangers are the second kind of team.
Hamilton had a big year. Vlad was great. They had some big years from young pitchers, and Feliz was terrific as a closer.
Sure. But Hamilton missed 20 games. Ian Kinsler missed about forty games. Julio Borbon was a disappointment. Chris Davis and Justin Smoak didn’t hit the forty homers that everyone expected. Cliff Lee wasn’t greatdown the stretch. Not everything went right for them, but they won the division easily.
So they’re the favorites. Who is a challenger?
I don’t think Seattle is a challenger. Their offense was terrible last year, and it’s tough to see it getting drastically better. Not this year.
That leaves two teams: Oakland and the Angels of wherever.
Right. Going aside for a moment: there are five major league teams in California. Who is the best offensive player in the state?
We can do it by team. The best offensive player on the A’s it was Darric Barton. On the Angels it was Torii Hunter, though I suppose that Kendry Morales would’ve been better, if he hadn’t suffered that season-ending grand slam.
Switching to the National League, you’d have Huff in San Francisco. Ethier was the best hitter for the Dodgers, and he wasn’t that good in 2010. Adrian Gonzalez was the best Padre, but he’s not a Padre anymore. The best Padre bat is Chase Headley. That’s Ethier, Huff, Headley, Barton, and Hunter or Morales for the title of best hitter in California.
Pretty weak group.
It is. I have no point to make about it: I just thought it was strange. California doesn’t have hitters.
Can Oakland or the Angels catch the Rangers?
Sure: both teams could catch the Rangers. Oakland has some terrific young pitchers. They could win the division, or the Wild Card. Certainly, they’ll be in the hunt.
Writers always picks Oakland. They’re the darlings of the saber-media.
I can’t say that I have empirical data that supports that statement, but it sure seems true. The A’s and the Royals both, actually. They get more than their fair share of attention.
For separate reasons, though. The A’s get attention because they have a lot of smart people running a very poor franchise with no fan base: we’re rooting for smarts to win the masses over. The Royals are almost a polar-opposite franchise: they have a deep base of loyal fans and tons of raw talent, but no one’s sure the management will get out of the way enough to make things work.
What about the Angels?
They dragged their feet on Crawford. I mean: what happened there? He was perfect for that club, but they took their time with him.
I think that the Angels didn’t view Crawford as a really good player. To me, that’s the only explanation: by whatever metrics that team uses to evaluate players, Crawford didn’t look like someone they had to be urgent about acquiring. The Angels were negotiating as if Crawford was an All-Star. The Red Sox went after him like he was a Hall-of-Famer.
And he is…
One of the ten best players in the game. His contributions on defense and the base paths are remarkable, and he’s a helluva hitter. I think he has a good chance to win the American League batting title this year…him or Adrian. They’ll both thrive in Fenway.
The Angels have Vernon Wells.
Aren’t they still paying Gary Matthews, Jr.? And Hunter?
I think they’re still playing Tim Salmon.
The Angels could contend. It will help to have Kendry Morales back. And they have very good pitching: Dan Haren in that rotation. They might surprise us, but I like Oakland and Texas better.
We have an order?
Texas. Oakland. Angels. Mariners.
* * *
You like the Indians, huh?
I do…you can read all about that elsewhere on the site. The American League Central is a tough division: with no really strong teams, it’s up for grabs. Cleveland could take the division.
What’s wrong with the Twins?
First, they’re the defending champs: if a team is the defending winners of a division, it’s a stretch to say that anything is wrong with them. The Twins have a lot of talent.
But…
They’re a house built on stilts. Like the ones you see on the eastern coast…the ones that seem so vulnerable when a hurricane rolls through.
Who are their stilts?
Mauer and Liriano: if they slip, the house goes into the ocean.
There’s plenty of teams like that. The Cardinals are like that: Pujols and Holliday. The Tigers with Verlander and Cabrera. The Red Sox will suffer if Adrian and Lester get injured.
First: I don’t think the drop between Adrian and the next best guy on the Red Sox is as steep as it is for the Twins. If Mauer gets hurt, the team’s best hitter is…Morneau? Maybe…if he’s back from a concussion. Second: Liriano and Mauer are bigger threats to get injured than, say, Lester and Adrian. Liriano’s had one full season…one season where he was very good. And Joe Mauer is a catcher coming off minor surgery.
So: higher injury risk + steep drop to the next best players = Twins are a house on stilts.
You got it. Like I said, they’re the favorites. But they’re in a precarious position.
How about the White Sox?
The White Sox have good pitching and a thumping offense. As that team manages to contend even when they shouldn’t contend, it’s hard to imagine them having an off year with all of their current talent.
They’re getting a lot of attention.
A lot of people have them as the favorites, and I can’t disagree with that. The White Sox are similar to the Rangers: you could see this team winning the division even if some of their best players miss time. You can’t say the same thing about the Twins.
So they’re the team to beat?
Sure. The White Sox had lousy production from DH last year...so they went out and signed Adam Dunn, who will produce exactly what you’d hope from a designated hitter: he’ll get on base and he’ll hit a lot of homeruns. For most teams, signing Adam Dunn is a treading water kind of move, but he makes perfect sense for the White Sox. I’m on board with him having a good year.
Is he a Hall-of-Famer?
Dunn is interesting: if he had come along at any time in baseball’s history other than the time he came up, he would probably be a star. But…he came at the exact wrong time for a homerun hitter: he caught the tail-end of the high offense era, when people started getting skeptical of guys like him. It was bad timing.
So: not a Hall-of-Famer.
Well…there’s time for the skepticism to wear off, still. He’s moving to a great hitter’s park, which should mask his decline somewhat. His most comparable player right now is Jose Canseco, but Canseco was on a completely different trajectory than Dunn is on. By the time Jose was thirty-one years old he was missing lots of games, and his numbers were all over the board. Dunn’s the opposite: he’s been steady-as-a-rock over the last seven years. He dipped a bit last season, but he’s locked in Chicago for the next four years. His third comparable is Harmon Killebrew, which seems more accurate.
Getting back to the races…how about the Tigers?
Maybe. If the Twins and White Sox struggle, you could see it. Verlander and Scherzer are the best 1-2 in the division, and the lineup should be improved with Victor Martinez. The Twins are not obviously better than the Tigers…if you think the White Sox are going to have trouble, then the Tigers are as good a pick as the Twins.
Who would you take?
I like the Twins. They are a younger team, and I think that their rotation, past Liriano and Pavano, is stronger than the Tigers. But it’s a push.
You like Cleveland.
In an article on the site, I said that I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland won the Central. The big question for them is pitching: if their starters come through, they’ll be competitive.
Who’s left? Kansas City.
Here’s hoping the Sports Illustrated jinx doesn’t catch them. They are loaded with talent.
Sure. And they won, what, sixty-four games last year?
Right. And they moved their best player during the offseason. Just like San Diego, except the Royals didn’t finish a game out of the postseason.
What can we expect?
Well…last place. With a sizeable ‘but.’
Which is?
Their offense is going to be very interesting. People are excited to watch the Orioles lineup…I think by the end of the year people will be watching the Royals hit. I am very confident that one or two hitters on that team will have a breakout season in 2011. I would not be surprised if four players on Kansas City had breakout years.
I guess that depends on what you mean by ‘breakout’?
I mean All-Star level of play. First: Billy Butler is a hitter. Sooner or later he’ll post a .300/30/100 line, and I’m of the opinion that all of those numbers could be higher. It’s a matter of ‘when’, not if.
Right. You’ve talked about his doubles on this site. Leaving him aside…
Alex Gordon: if you want a sleeper candidate for the American League MVP, you could do a lot worse than Alex Gordon.
You’re high on Gordon?
I am. Look at his spring training numbers: he has seven homers on the spring, and is hitting .350 and leading the team in walks. He’s tried to steal a base seven times…to me that speaks volumes about where he's at this year: I think Alex Gordon wants to rule the baseball world or die trying. He’s playing great this spring. He’s playing so well that the Royals moved him to the third spot in the order. If he’s going to be the star that everyone thought he’d be, it’ll happen this year.
But spring training doesn’t mean anything.
Right. Except when it does mean something. John Dewan predicted Jose Bautista’s breakout last year because Bautista had a very good spring training. Same thing holds true for Francisco Liriano: Liriano was unhittable during the 2010 spring training, and he carried it over into the regular season.
So: Alex Gordon is having a good spring.
No: all of the Royals are having a good spring. Kila Ka’aihue is having a better spring than Gordon: he’s up around .400, and he’s ahead on homeruns. Billy Butler is hitting around .350, and he has three steals. Alcides Escobar, who hit -13 homeruns last year, hasfiveon the spring, and is hitting .347. And Melky…Melky Cabrera leads all playersin batting average…he’s hitting in the high .400’s.
You didn’t mention Francoeur.
Francoeur is having a dismal preseason. He illustrates the other side of the coin.
Meaning?
Meaning that for all the optimism that I feel towards the Royals….they’re still the Royals. Francoeur has been awful this spring, but he’s only recently been dropped to sixth in the lineup. Sixth. They’re still giving him at-bats…someone in that organization still believes in Francoeur.
In a way, Francoeur embodies spring training like no other player: he is the ultimate demonstration that hope springs eternal.
Yeah, year after year. I don’t want to pick on Francoeur, because he sounds like a genuinely nice guy. But…he has no business being a starting outfielder in the major leagues. That he will be starting on Opening Day for the Royals suggests that the team is still making lousy choices.
So…no Royals.
No. But they’re fun to watch. They will certainly hit. There is an outside chance that they have the best offense in the division.
And you think Cleveland has a chance?
I think they have better odds than Kansas City, at least in 2011. They need a lot of breaks to go their way, but they could run for the top.
What’s your order?
White Sox, Twins, Indians, Tigers, Royals.
  * * *
You’ve dedicated two thousand words to the American League West and Central. That means we’re getting about 16,000 on the American League East, right?
That sounds about right. Saving the best for last.
And the best is?
The Red Sox. They won 89 games last year. They did that in the most difficult division in baseball, with half their team injured. They then signed two of the ten best non-pitchers in baseball during the offseason. You could call it a success.
Two of the ten best?
Absolutely. Adrian Gonzalez is right behind Pujols…his road splits are very close to Albert’s, and they have been for many years.
And Crawford?
Crawford is one of the ten best non-pitchers in baseball, a fact that no one seems to notice. He does everything well: great defense, great hitter, great on the bases.
Can you give us a quick rundown of the ten best? Leaving out pitchers, that is.
Sure: Longoria and Zimmerman at third, Pujols and Adrian at first, Hanley and Tulo at shortstop, Crawford and Braun in the outfield, and Mauer behind the plate, Cano at second. Those would be my top-ten.
So you like Boston?
I think they’re the best team in baseball. They could win 100 games. Even in that division. Any cracks in the armor?
Sure: Beckett and Dice-K and Lackey. They’re all question marks. If you had asked me two weeks ago, I would’ve said that Beckett and Lackey were going to have big years in 2011. I’m not nearly as sure about that now. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Matsuzaka was the one who had the best year in 2011.
Can the Yankees challenge them?
Of course. The Yankees are a great baseball team.
I sense a ‘but’ coming. ‘
But…they have two obvious vulnerabilities: age and pitching. Addressing pitching first: they lost Pettitte and they didn’t land Cliff Lee, so the rotation behind Sabathia is Burnett, Hughes, Freddie Garcia, and Ivan Nova.
Not exactly the Phillies, is it?
No. In a way, signing Rafael Sorianoto a huge contract was actually a smart move, because the Yankees are going to need an excellent bullpen. Which is a nice segue to the happiest story from the Yankees training camp.
That bring?
The return of Mark Prior, of course. At this writing, he’s notched eleven strikeouts in 7.2 innings this spring. He’s only thirty years old…Mark Prior could certainly come back.
As for aging….this is going to be a dig at Jeter, isn’t it?
No…it’s just a comment on the team. A quick way to assess a team’s lineup is to ask, ‘how many of these guys are likely to have their best year this year?’ For the Yankees, it’s unlikely that any of their players will have their best years. Jeter had the worst year of his career last year: I think he will rebound from that, but not to the MVP-level of his past. A-Rod looks great this spring, but he’s missed a lot of games over the last two seasons. Teixeira has had a declining OPS in each of the past two seasons. Posada is no longer as good as he was. Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson could have their best years, but they probably won’t. The guys who have the best chances to have career years in 2011 are Cano and the supremely underrated Brett Gardner…but Cano had a monster season last year, and Gardner faded during the second half. They could be better, but they might struggle trying to match their great seasons last year.
You paint a bleak picture.
Right…and it’s not really bleak: Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira, playing at 85% of their peak abilities, is still a lot more than most teams have. The Yankees have exceptionally good players at every position on the diamond…I think most folks aren’t giving them nearly as much respect as they deserve. It’s foolish to count them out of anything….they are a very good baseball team.
The Orioles could surprise: that’s a team that is bursting with talent. Jake Fox has hit, what, sixty-two homers over the spring, and he can’t get a starting gig on that club?
It’s artifice, mostly. The Orioles are not nearly as good they look. They have a lot of young talent on that baseball team, and someday that talent is going to win ballgames. But guys like Derrek Lee and Vlad and Hardy aren’t going to be with that team when the wins start coming.
You don’t like their offseason.
I do, actually: I think it’s really smart to bring in a bunch of veterans who have won games, to shift the attitude around there. All those losing years take a psychic toll: I think the Orioles have done a great job shifting the mood on that ballclub. Showalter is leading it: he’s been chirping about the Yankees and Red Sox all spring.
Showalter doesn’t like Jeter.
I said that Lee and Vlad have a chance to change the attitude, but they won’t be around to see the wins. I think the same is true of Buck Showalter: he’ll play a role in bringing the young talent to the front, but he won’t last long enough to see the wins.
Rays and Jays…who do you want to start with?
The Rays.
They’re not talked about much, are they?
No. I wonder what percentage of fans even remember that the Rays won the American League East last year. I’d hazard that it’s seven percent. Maybe eight.
They lost a lot of guys…Crawford, Pena, Soriano, and Garza. That’s a big part of the team.
Is it? Don’t get me wrong: losing Crawford is tough, especially since he’s still in the division. But the rest of those guys are very replaceable. I love Carlos Pena, but there are guys like Jake Fox and Jack Cust and Mark Trumbo who can do 90% of what Carlos Pena can do. Rafael Soriano was a fine closer, but Kevin Gregg and Matt Capps have been fine closers, and I wouldn’t pay ten million dollars to sign them, either. Matt Garza had a 3.91 ERA in a pitchers’ park and struck out 6.8 per nine innings pitched…those are fine numbers, but he’s not going to win the Cy Young Award. Aside from Crawford, the Rays lost guys who other teams are going to overpay for. Look who got their guys…Sox, Yankees, Cubs.
The Cubs and the Yankees haven’t been the models of fiscal responsibility lately, have they?
No. The Cubs allocate their many dollars in very strange ways. The Yankees are a bit more responsible, but they have an annoying habit of giving aeveryone opt-out clauses.
Right…the C and C Music Factory is in a walk year.
Yes he is. Not that he was any great shakes the last time he approached free agency….Sabathia will probably win 31 games and outhit A-Rod in the World Series.
The Rays have been getting a lot of flak for signing Manny and Damon. An Idiot’s reunion.
Well…Manny will improve what they got out of DH last year. And while Damon won’t replicate Crawford’s 2011 season, he won’t cripple the team, either. I like the moves. I really like the Manny Ramirez addition: he can still hit.
How’s the pitching?
Good, with a chance to be very good. Pitching is where the Rays have an edge over the other monsters in the division. With Marcum in Milwaukee, with the questions surrounding Beckett and Dice-K and Lackey, and with the Yankees #2 guy being A.J. Burnett, the Rays probably have the best rotation in the division. Their bullpen doesn’t compare to Boston’s or New York’s, but they have some good young arms. Don’t sleep on the Rays: they’ll be in the race this year.
And the Blue Jays?
First: that the Blue Jays unloaded Vernon Wells has to be the most astonishing event of the offseason. That was…amazing. Even if they had to take Rivera, and pay a lot of cash. It was a great, smart move. It’s a move that shows that this is an organization that is awake at the helm.
Buy low, sell high. The Jays sold him at the highest possible moment.
They fixed their mistake. As for their current roster: the Jays had terrible luck in 2010. Aaron Hill posted a batting-average-on-balls-in-play (BABIP) of .196, which means that he was hitting into an entire defense of Ozzie Smith’s. It was a historical unlucky season for Hill: if they start giving out awards for unlucky players, they should name it in his honor.
So Hill comes back.
He never left. Even with that terrible BABIP, Hill hit twenty-six homeruns and was one of the best defensive infielders in baseball. He’s a fine player. So is Bautista.
He won’t hit fifty-four again.
Right….that’s what everyone’s been saying. That’s the first line that’s written about him…expect thirty or thirty-five homeruns. Not forty. Not fifty.
You sound skeptical of the skeptics.
I am. There are six months in the baseball season: he hit 10+ homeruns in four of those six months last year. He wasn’t inconsistent; he actually got better during the second half. He’s a real power hitter…I wouldn’t be surprised to see him defend his crown.
He’s having an electric spring.
You know who’s having a tremendous spring? Rajai Davis. He has five or six homeruns on the spring, to go with a great batting average. He’s moving from Oakland to Toronto: I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a big year.
A Tim Raines year, perhaps.
Yeah….he’ll hit leadoff in Toronto, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post an average north of .300, with double digit homeruns and fifty stolen bases. He’s Carl Crawford-lite.
The Jays have some talented young pitchers coming up.
It’s a really tough division, the American League East…the Jays are stacked with talent, and they might finish fourth. And they might win the Wild Card.
How are you calling it?
I think the first and last teams are easy: Boston will win the division, and Baltimore will finish in last. You can fill in the gaps.
Tampa won the division last year. Let’s give them second, the Yankees third, and the Jays fourth.
Okay: Red Sox, Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles.
Is the Wild Card coming out of the East?
I think the second-best team will be in the East, but the Wild Card might not come out of that division. It’s such a tough division that every team’s win totals will be kept down. But…I think the Rays will take the Wild Card.
* * *
Award winners?
I think that Adrian Gonzalez will win the American League MVP. I would not be surprised if he won the Triple Crown.
Really?
Sure. His batting average away from Petco has been about .307 over his career…left-handed hitters who can hit .307 in neutral parks tend to have great batting averages in Fenway Park. Ted Williams is an example of this, as is Wade Boggs. Fred Lynn.
Want to put up a sleeper for the MVP?
Sure…how about Ian Kinsler? If he stays healthy, he could have an MVP season. Alex Gordon, too.
Cy Young award?
You can’t dismiss C.C.
You think he uses the opt-out?
Of course he will. If he has another great year, he’ll be in a great position to cash in on a steep five- or six-year deal. And….it obviously worked out for his teammate. I think Sabathia will opt out and resign.
So CC for the Cy Young Award…anyone else?
Oakland has three guys who could win it, but they’re a bit too trendy. Thinking way outside the box: how about Dice-K?
Really?
Why not. I could see it happening.
Rookie of the Year?
I’ll take Zach Britton, in Baltimore. Him or Kyle Drabek in Toronto.
Finally: who will represent the American League in the World Series?
The Red Sox, of course.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.