Let us suppose that we look simply and logically at the question of what was the greatest team of all time. What are the characteristics of greatness in a baseball team?
I would argue that there are at least seven clear standards by which we can evaluate a baseball team, plus an eighth consideration that must also be kept in mind. The seven standards are:
1) Their won-lost record in a season,
2) Their runs scored/runs allowed ratio in a season,
3) Their won-lost record over a period of years,
4) Their runs scored/runs allowed over a period of years,
5) Their post-season record in the season in question,
6) Their post-season record over a period of time, and
7) The quality of the talent on their roster.
The eighth consideration that is necessary is a time-line adjustment. A time-line adjustment is necessary because
a) The quality of play has improved over time,
b) Weak competition is easier to dominate than strong competition, therefore,
c) Without a time-line adjustment, we will tend to show the best teams in baseball history as concentrated in the first half of baseball history, when the reality is that the best teams are probably more concentrated in the second half of baseball history than the first.
So then we have eight criteria of a great team. Let us say that these eight criteria will be given roughly equal weight, and let us say that, to represent these in a mathematical model, we will give each criteria a potential value of 125 points. That makes a potential score, for the greatest team ever by every criteria, of 1000 points.
I can’t promise you that at the end of the day, approximately 16 pages from here, I will have an absolutely convincing answer to the question of what was the greatest team of all time. I will promise you, however, that I didn’t decide on the answer first and then make up the method to fit my answer. I did the best I could to construct a system that evaluates each team fairly.
1) The won-lost record in a season.
OK, there are 2,606 baseball teams in major league history, counting the teams from 1876 to 1899 as major league teams, which they really weren’t, but. . .that’s another issue.
We want a 0-to-125 scale, with an average team at 62.5 or thereabouts. If we simply subtracts losses from wins for each team—(How far is this team above .500?)—the average score is zero. But if we make it Wins Minus Losses, plus 62, but not more than 125 nor less than zero, then we have a 0-to-125 scale with 27 teams tied for the bottom spot at zero, and eight teams tied for the top spot with 125. The eight teams that score at 125 are these:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
G
|
W
|
L
|
WPct
|
W-L + 62
|
Score
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
154
|
116
|
36
|
.763
|
142
|
125
|
|
1884
|
St. Louis
|
Maroons
|
UA
|
113
|
92
|
19
|
.829
|
135
|
125
|
|
2001
|
Seattle
|
Mariners
|
AL
|
162
|
116
|
46
|
.716
|
132
|
125
|
|
1909
|
Pittsburgh
|
Pirates
|
NL
|
154
|
110
|
42
|
.724
|
130
|
125
|
|
1954
|
Cleveland
|
Indians
|
AL
|
156
|
111
|
43
|
.721
|
130
|
125
|
|
1902
|
Pittsburgh
|
Pirates
|
NL
|
141
|
103
|
36
|
.741
|
129
|
125
|
|
1927
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
155
|
110
|
44
|
.714
|
128
|
125
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
162
|
114
|
48
|
.704
|
128
|
125
|
The average score on this scale is 62.08, the standard deviation 25.97.
If there are 2,606 teams in baseball history then the halfway mark, chronologically by counting teams, would be 1,303. Team number 1,303 would have played in 1960—thus, six of these eight first-place teams would be concentrated in the first half of baseball history.
2) The Runs Scored/Runs Allowed Ratio
We can deal with this, of course, as the Pythagorean ratio. The average Pythagorean ratio for all teams in major league history is .500. Less than 1% of all teams are either over .750 or under .250, and all of those that are over .750 or under .250 played in 1942 or before, most of them long before. We can "scale" these to 0-to-125, then, by this process:
Pythagorean Winning Percentage
Minus .500
Times 2
Plus .500
Times 125
We round that to the nearest integer, and impose a rule that no team will be over 125 or less than zero. By this process the average score is 62.52, and the standard deviation is 22.95. There are ten teams in history than score at 125 by this process, which are:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
R
|
R
|
WPct
|
Score
|
Adjusted Score
|
|
1876
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
624
|
257
|
.855
|
151.2432
|
125
|
|
1884
|
St. Louis
|
Maroons
|
UA
|
887
|
429
|
.810
|
140.1063
|
125
|
|
1885
|
New York
|
Giants
|
NL
|
691
|
370
|
.777
|
131.7935
|
125
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
704
|
381
|
.773
|
130.8652
|
125
|
|
1882
|
Cincinnati
|
Reds
|
AA
|
489
|
268
|
.769
|
129.7535
|
125
|
|
1885
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
834
|
470
|
.759
|
127.2407
|
125
|
|
1902
|
Pittsburgh
|
Pirates
|
NL
|
775
|
440
|
.756
|
126.5601
|
125
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
967
|
556
|
.752
|
125.3858
|
125
|
|
1884
|
New York
|
Metropolitians
|
AA
|
734
|
423
|
.751
|
125.1715
|
125
|
|
1879
|
Providence
|
Grays
|
NL
|
612
|
355
|
.748
|
124.5591
|
125
|
Combining Scores 1 and 2, the top eleven teams in baseball history to this point in our analysis are:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Total
|
|
1884
|
St. Louis
|
Maroons
|
UA
|
125
|
125
|
250
|
|
1902
|
Pittsburgh
|
Pirates
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
250
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
250
|
|
1885
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
125
|
249
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
123
|
125
|
248
|
|
1885
|
New York
|
Giants
|
NL
|
120
|
125
|
245
|
|
1927
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
125
|
118
|
243
|
|
1884
|
Providence
|
Grays
|
NL
|
118
|
124
|
242
|
|
1909
|
Pittsburgh
|
Pirates
|
NL
|
125
|
115
|
240
|
|
1886
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
118
|
119
|
237
|
|
1904
|
New York
|
Giants
|
NL
|
122
|
115
|
237
|
Nine of the 11 from the years 1884 to 1909; I warned you about this problem.
3) The Won-Lost Record over a period of years.
Let us say that each team is represented by their won-lost record over the five-year period of which this season is the center. The 1908 Cubs (Tinker to Evers to Chance) are represented by the Cubs from 1906 to 1910; this team had the greatest five-year winning percentage in the history of baseball:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
From
|
To
|
5 yr W
|
5 yr L
|
5 Yr Pct
|
|
1908
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
1906
|
1910
|
530
|
235
|
.693
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
1885
|
1889
|
449
|
205
|
.687
|
|
1886
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
1884
|
1888
|
424
|
194
|
.686
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
1905
|
1909
|
518
|
246
|
.678
|
|
1896
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
NL
|
1894
|
1898
|
450
|
214
|
.678
|
|
1884
|
Cincinnati
|
Outlaw Reds
|
UA
|
1882
|
1886
|
69
|
34
|
.670
|
|
1884
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
1882
|
1886
|
353
|
176
|
.667
|
|
1884
|
Milwaukee
|
Cream Cities
|
UA
|
1882
|
1886
|
8
|
4
|
.667
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
1904
|
1908
|
507
|
257
|
.664
|
|
1930
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
1928
|
1932
|
505
|
258
|
.662
|
We are crediting the Milwaukee Cream Cities with a five-year won-lost record although they actually only lasted for two weeks; damned generous of us, but it won’t ultimately affect the rankings. By this test, by the way, the most recent team among the top 35 teams would be the 1944 Cardinals.
Let us say that on this scale, a .667 five-year winning percentage is a perfect 125, whereas a .333 five-year winning percentage is a zero. We can accomplish that by:
Five-Year Winning Percentage
Minus .500
Times 3
Plus .500
Times 125
Limited to zero and 125 and converted to integers, of course. This creates an average score for this category of 62.64, and a standard deviation of 25.52. Through three tests, then, these are the eleven best teams of all time:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Total
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
124
|
374
|
|
1885
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
125
|
119
|
368
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
123
|
125
|
118
|
366
|
|
1902
|
Pittsburgh
|
Pirates
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
113
|
363
|
|
1909
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
117
|
119
|
122
|
358
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
108
|
125
|
357
|
|
1944
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
118
|
116
|
122
|
356
|
|
1880
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
112
|
123
|
119
|
354
|
|
1942
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
120
|
116
|
118
|
354
|
|
1886
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
118
|
119
|
116
|
353
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
118
|
110
|
125
|
353
|
Cub fans are hot; who are the Yankees, after all? Johnny-come-latelies.
OK, at some point some "modern" teams are going to have to start showing up in the competition, and I probably don’t want to spring those on you at the last moment, so these are the top ten teams (so far) of the years 1961-2010:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Total
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
125
|
109
|
101
|
335
|
|
1969
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
118
|
111
|
101
|
330
|
|
2001
|
Seattle
|
Mariners
|
AL
|
125
|
109
|
94
|
328
|
|
1975
|
Cincinnati
|
Reds
|
NL
|
116
|
106
|
104
|
326
|
|
1998
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
112
|
105
|
107
|
324
|
|
1970
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
116
|
101
|
105
|
322
|
|
1961
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
118
|
99
|
104
|
321
|
|
1971
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
106
|
103
|
108
|
317
|
|
1986
|
New York
|
Mets
|
NL
|
116
|
99
|
101
|
316
|
|
1993
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
108
|
101
|
104
|
313
|
The best modern team is at this juncture 18 points out of the top ten. Most of those are obvious candidates, no? The 1970 Orioles, the Big Red Machine, the ’61 and ’98 Yankees and the 1986 Mets; these are among the teams that came up immediately when we started discussing this stuff in the "Hey, Bill" section.
4) Runs Scored/Runs Allowed over a period of years.
Same process; we look at the runs scored and allowed by the team over a five-year period, and each team is represented by five-year period of which this team is the center.
The most runs ever scored by a team in a five-year period, you may be interested to know (or not) was 5,072, by the Baltimore Orioles, 1894-1898. The only other team to score 5,000 runs in a five-year period was the Boston Beaneaters, 1893-1897, and the post-1900 record is 4,957, by the Yankees (1929-1933).
Not counting a couple of 19th century teams, the best five-year ratio of runs to runs allowed was 1.55 to 1, by the Chicago Cubs of 1905 to 1909 (Tinker to Evers to Chance.) We express this, of course, as a Pythagorean Winning Percentage, creating this list of the best five-year Pythagorean winning percentages, not counting one-year teams:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
5 yr Runs
|
5 yr OR
|
P WPct
|
|
1882
|
Cincinnati
|
Reds
|
AA
|
1905
|
1193
|
.718
|
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
3199
|
2061
|
.707
|
|
|
1908
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
3243
|
2118
|
.701
|
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
4498
|
2995
|
.693
|
|
|
1886
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
4090
|
2724
|
.693
|
|
|
1884
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
3851
|
2565
|
.693
|
|
|
1896
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
NL
|
5072
|
3425
|
.687
|
|
|
1883
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
3501
|
2389
|
.682
|
|
|
1937
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
4795
|
3301
|
.678
|
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
3164
|
2183
|
.677
|
|
I get the feeling I must be re-tracing Rob and Eddie’s steps here; let’s hope that I only re-trace MOST of them, and not all of them. Anyway, let’s say that .700 is 125 points, and .300 is zero. Then:
Five year Pythagorean Winning Percentage
Minus .500
Times 2.5
Plus .500
Times 125
Converted into an integer, yada yada.
This creates a score with an average of 62.64, and a standard deviation of 22.55—consistent with our other scores. This, then, is our Round 4 updated list of the greatest teams ever:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Total
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
124
|
125
|
499
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
492
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
123
|
491
|
|
1896
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
113
|
121
|
484
|
|
1886
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
125
|
125
|
109
|
123
|
482
|
|
1908
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
106
|
125
|
481
|
|
1885
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
119
|
125
|
124
|
112
|
480
|
|
1943
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
123
|
123
|
118
|
115
|
479
|
|
1944
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
122
|
122
|
118
|
116
|
478
|
|
1909
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
122
|
122
|
117
|
114
|
475
|
If we limit it to teams post-1910, we get this list:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Total
|
|
1943
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
123
|
123
|
118
|
115
|
479
|
|
1944
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
122
|
122
|
118
|
116
|
478
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
118
|
118
|
123
|
114
|
473
|
|
1937
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
121
|
121
|
112
|
118
|
472
|
|
1929
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
122
|
122
|
120
|
104
|
468
|
|
1930
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
123
|
123
|
112
|
108
|
466
|
|
1942
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
118
|
118
|
120
|
108
|
464
|
|
1938
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
119
|
119
|
108
|
117
|
463
|
|
1941
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
117
|
117
|
110
|
114
|
458
|
|
1954
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
115
|
115
|
114
|
111
|
455
|
If we limit it to teams post-World War II (the Big One), we get this:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Total
|
|
1954
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
115
|
115
|
114
|
111
|
455
|
|
1953
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
115
|
115
|
109
|
109
|
448
|
|
1955
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
116
|
116
|
100
|
112
|
444
|
|
1953
|
Brooklyn
|
Dodgers
|
NL
|
112
|
112
|
118
|
98
|
440
|
|
1952
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
116
|
116
|
98
|
109
|
439
|
|
1954
|
Cleveland
|
Indians
|
AL
|
107
|
107
|
125
|
98
|
437
|
|
1951
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
113
|
113
|
104
|
106
|
436
|
|
1956
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
112
|
112
|
102
|
109
|
435
|
|
1970
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
105
|
105
|
116
|
107
|
433
|
|
1971
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
108
|
108
|
106
|
110
|
432
|
The list is taken over by the 1950s Yankees at this point due to their exceptional consistency, performing very well every year. If we limit it to teams post-1970, we get this:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Total
|
|
1970
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
105
|
105
|
116
|
107
|
433
|
|
1971
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
108
|
108
|
106
|
110
|
432
|
|
1998
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
107
|
107
|
112
|
99
|
425
|
|
1997
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
110
|
110
|
102
|
101
|
423
|
|
1975
|
Cincinnati
|
Reds
|
NL
|
104
|
104
|
116
|
98
|
422
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
101
|
101
|
125
|
94
|
421
|
|
1974
|
Cincinnati
|
Reds
|
NL
|
110
|
110
|
96
|
102
|
418
|
|
1999
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
103
|
103
|
106
|
98
|
410
|
|
1993
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
104
|
104
|
108
|
94
|
410
|
|
1995
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
106
|
106
|
98
|
99
|
409
|
5) Post-Season Records (Single Season)
Here the nature of our challenge changes. Now we have to make up a set of rules which is consistent with our goals and consistent with the rest of the methodology.
Obviously all teams that win the World Series must be considered superior to all teams that do not win the World Series; to argue otherwise would be difficult. I would suggest that, in the way that people commonly think about this problem, winning the World Series or not winning the World Series is the only meaningful distinction. People talk about those great Atlanta Braves teams of the 1990s. . .they didn’t win; that’s all. If they didn’t win the World Series, they’re nothing.
Let me ask this: is winning the World Series as impressive when you only have to beat one other team as it is when you have to beat seven others? I would suggest that it is not. I would suggest that winning a MODERN World Series, where you have to fight your way through levels of playoff competition, is a more impressive accomplishment than simply winning one series.
As you probably know, I’m guessing, no team has ever swept all three levels of post-season play. The 1999 Yankees and the 2005 White Sox swept through the series at 11-1, and the 1976 Reds were 7-0 when there were only two rounds.
How about this:
1) All teams that win the World Series are scored between 106 and 125 points.
2) The scoring for those teams is as follows:
100 points,
+ 5 points for each round of competition won,
  + 1 point for each game won in post-season play,
- 1 point for each game lost in post-season play
Teams that won the World Series 4-3 when there was only one round of play, that’s 106 points. For the 1999 Yankees and 2005 White Sox, it’s 125 points.
Teams that don’t win the World Series are graded as follows
100 * their season winning percentage, but not to exceed their actual win total,
+ 9 points if they qualified for post-season play or would have qualified for post-season play if there had been a post-season championship,
+ 3 points for each win in post-season play, if they won games in post-season play.
The 19th century "championships" I counted as playoff games, but not as true World Series games. The lowest-scoring World Championship teams, as I said, are at 106 points. The highest scoring non- World Series winning teams are the 1996 Cleveland Indians, who score at 105 points, and the 1887 Detroit Wolverines, who score at 103. The ’96 Indians went 100-44 in regular season, won two rounds of playoffs, 3-0 and 4-2, then lost the World Series 4-2. The 1887 Wolverines won the National League, then defeated the American Association champion St. Louis team 10-5 in a fifteen-game playoff. These are the highest-scoring World Championship teams in this system:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score
|
|
1999
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
125
|
|
2005
|
Chicago
|
White Sox
|
AL
|
125
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
124
|
|
1995
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
123
|
|
2004
|
Boston
|
Red Sox
|
AL
|
123
|
|
2007
|
Boston
|
Red Sox
|
AL
|
123
|
|
2008
|
Philadelphia
|
Phillies
|
NL
|
123
|
|
1996
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
122
|
|
2009
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
122
|
|
2010
|
San Francisco
|
Giants
|
NL
|
122
|
|
1997
|
Florida
|
Marlins
|
NL
|
121
|
|
2000
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
121
|
|
2002
|
Anaheim
|
Angels
|
AL
|
121
|
|
2006
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
121
|
And these are the highest-scoring non-World Series winners:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
W
|
L
|
WPct
|
PS W
|
PS L
|
Score
|
|
1995
|
Cleveland
|
Indians
|
AL
|
100
|
44
|
.694
|
9
|
6
|
105
|
|
1887
|
Detroit
|
Wolverines
|
NL
|
79
|
45
|
.637
|
10
|
5
|
103
|
|
2001
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
95
|
65
|
.594
|
10
|
7
|
98
|
|
2002
|
San Francisco
|
Giants
|
NL
|
95
|
66
|
.590
|
10
|
7
|
98
|
|
2003
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
101
|
61
|
.623
|
9
|
8
|
98
|
|
1885
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
87
|
25
|
.777
|
3
|
3
|
96
|
|
1996
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
96
|
66
|
.593
|
9
|
7
|
95
|
|
2004
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
105
|
57
|
.648
|
7
|
8
|
95
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
95
|
39
|
.709
|
5
|
10
|
95
|
|
1999
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
103
|
59
|
.636
|
7
|
7
|
94
|
|
2009
|
Philadelphia
|
Phillies
|
NL
|
93
|
69
|
.574
|
9
|
6
|
93
|
|
2008
|
Tampa Bay
|
Rays
|
AL
|
97
|
65
|
.599
|
8
|
8
|
93
|
|
1889
|
New York
|
Giants
|
NL
|
83
|
43
|
.659
|
6
|
3
|
93
|
|
2001
|
Seattle
|
Mariners
|
AL
|
116
|
46
|
.716
|
4
|
6
|
93
|
|
1884
|
Providence
|
Grays
|
NL
|
84
|
28
|
.750
|
3
|
0
|
93
|
By this system, the average score for all teams in baseball history is 53.48, and the Standard Deviation is 17.39. You can think what you like of the system, but I think it’s about the best I can do to represent single-season post-season success on a scale that is consistent with the rest of the system, without either ignoring this performance or heroically over-valuing it, as I think many people do.
This element of the system begins, for the first time, to re-balance the system to make it more fair to modern teams. The 1907 and 1908 Cubs, however, won the World Series both years (4-0 and 4-1), and thus that team stays in the top spot through five rounds of play:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Score 5
|
Total
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
124
|
125
|
109
|
608
|
|
1908
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
106
|
125
|
108
|
589
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
123
|
95
|
586
|
|
1944
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
122
|
122
|
118
|
116
|
107
|
585
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
91
|
583
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
118
|
118
|
123
|
114
|
109
|
582
|
|
1937
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
121
|
121
|
112
|
118
|
108
|
580
|
|
1885
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
119
|
125
|
124
|
112
|
96
|
576
|
|
1929
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
122
|
122
|
120
|
104
|
108
|
576
|
|
1896
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
113
|
121
|
91
|
575
|
In our last round the 1954 Yankees were the highest-scoring team since World War II. Now they’re knocked well down the list because they didn’t win the pennant, thus didn’t qualify for post-season play. This is now the list of the top-scoring teams since World War II:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Score 5
|
Total
|
|
1953
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
115
|
115
|
109
|
109
|
107
|
555
|
|
1970
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
105
|
105
|
116
|
107
|
116
|
549
|
|
1952
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
116
|
116
|
98
|
109
|
107
|
546
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
101
|
101
|
125
|
94
|
124
|
545
|
|
1951
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
113
|
113
|
104
|
106
|
107
|
543
|
|
1956
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
112
|
112
|
102
|
109
|
106
|
541
|
|
1949
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
111
|
111
|
102
|
106
|
108
|
538
|
|
1950
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
110
|
110
|
104
|
104
|
109
|
537
|
|
1975
|
Cincinnati
|
Reds
|
NL
|
104
|
104
|
116
|
98
|
114
|
536
|
|
1995
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
106
|
106
|
98
|
99
|
123
|
532
|
6) Multi-Year Post-Season Records
OK, if you’ve been following along, you can probably guess how we’re going to do this. First, we’re going to total up the Post-season points earned by each franchise over each five-year period. The highest-scoring teams in post-season play, over a period of five years, are:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
From
|
To
|
5-year Score
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1996
|
2000
|
566
|
|
2000
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1998
|
2002
|
544
|
|
1999
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1997
|
2001
|
542
|
|
1951
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1949
|
1953
|
538
|
|
2001
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1999
|
2003
|
518
|
|
1997
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1995
|
1999
|
515
|
|
1952
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1950
|
1954
|
497
|
|
1937
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1935
|
1939
|
493
|
|
1950
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1948
|
1952
|
492
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1937
|
1941
|
491
|
|
1949
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
1947
|
1951
|
491
|
The highest-scoring non-Yankee team of all time is. .. .you may not like this. . .the 1997 Atlanta Braves.
Yeah, I know, the Braves are regarded as post-season flops, but the fact is, the Braves won nine post-season series from 1995 to 1999—an immense accomplishment. The Oakland A’s of 1971-1975 are impressive, too, and they’re right behind the Braves, but the A’s were in 8 post-season series and were swept in two of them, although they won the other six. The Braves were in 14 post-season series and won 9 of them.
Anyway, how do we make this a "score"? The 2,606 teams in major league history have post-season success scores ranging from 566 to 2, but if we take the range from 20 to 520, we have all of the teams except 14. We can make a score out of this, then, in this way:
5-year post-season success score,
Minus 20
Divided by 4
Converted into the nearest integer
But not less than zero or more than 125.
That gives us a "Score 6" with an average of 59.87 and a standard deviation of 17.77. Through six rounds, these are now the top 10 teams.
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Score 1
|
Score 2
|
Score 3
|
Score 4
|
Score 5
|
Score 6
|
Total
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
124
|
125
|
109
|
104
|
712
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
118
|
118
|
123
|
114
|
109
|
118
|
700
|
|
1908
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
106
|
125
|
108
|
109
|
698
|
|
1937
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
121
|
121
|
112
|
118
|
108
|
118
|
698
|
|
1944
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
122
|
122
|
118
|
116
|
107
|
111
|
696
|
|
1938
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
119
|
119
|
108
|
117
|
109
|
118
|
690
|
|
1887
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
AA
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
123
|
95
|
102
|
688
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
91
|
102
|
685
|
|
1929
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
122
|
122
|
120
|
104
|
108
|
102
|
678
|
|
1941
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
117
|
117
|
110
|
114
|
108
|
110
|
676
|
And these are the top ten teams since World War II. We’ll name the scores GT1 (Great Team 1) through GT6 so that we can compact the chart in a minute:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
GT1
|
GT 2
|
GT 3
|
GT 4
|
GT 5
|
GT 6
|
Total
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
101
|
101
|
125
|
94
|
124
|
125
|
670
|
|
1951
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
113
|
113
|
104
|
106
|
107
|
125
|
668
|
|
1953
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
115
|
115
|
109
|
109
|
107
|
112
|
667
|
|
1952
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
116
|
116
|
98
|
109
|
107
|
119
|
665
|
|
1949
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
111
|
111
|
102
|
106
|
108
|
118
|
656
|
|
1950
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
110
|
110
|
104
|
104
|
109
|
118
|
655
|
|
1999
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
103
|
103
|
96
|
94
|
125
|
125
|
646
|
|
1956
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
112
|
112
|
102
|
109
|
106
|
105
|
646
|
|
1970
|
Baltimore
|
Orioles
|
AL
|
105
|
105
|
116
|
107
|
116
|
96
|
645
|
|
1995
|
Atlanta
|
Braves
|
NL
|
106
|
106
|
98
|
99
|
123
|
106
|
638
|
7) The quality of the talent on the roster.
Here, again, we have to shift our approach. We can evaluate the quality of the talent on the roster by the Teams-on-Paper method, which was explained in a series of articles posted here a little more than a year ago, still available to you for your reference. Two years ago? Whatever. In fact, it was the realization that I could combine with Teams-on-Paper approach with traditional analysis to create a new look at this issue. . .it was that that provoked me to write this article.
The Teams-on-Paper method looks past the question of "did this player have a good year", and asks instead "is this a quality player? What quality of a player are we dealing with here?" Juan Marichal in 1971 and Clyde Wright in 1972 had very similar seasons, both going 18-11 with ERAs of 2.94 and 2.98—still, Juan Marichal is Juan Marichal, Clyde Wright is Clyde Wright. One thing that we expect of a great team is that it have some Juan Marichals along with the Clyde Wrights.
I’m not going to re-visit those arguments; the articles about that are still online if you want to read them (Articles, March, 2009.) The conclusion of that method was that the two greatest teams of all time, in terms of the talent on the roster, were the 1930s Yankees and the 1970s Cincinnati Reds, that the Yankees were stronger than the Reds, and that the strongest roster of all time was the 1931 Yankees. We score the 1931 Yankees at 315 points; again, you can read the article if you want to know what that means. How do we convert that into a 0-to-125 score?
Less than 65 points in the Teams-on-Paper Method will be zero points for Great Teams 7
65 (Teams on Paper) is zero (Great Teams 7)
Every two points above 65 (TOP) is 1 point (GT7)
315 (TOP) is 125 (GT7)
Another problem is that I don’t have data for all teams. It’s time-consuming to figure Teams On Paper Scores; I figured 252 teams with the original study, and I figured scores now for all the other teams that are serious candidates to be ranked among the all-time greats, but that still leaves 2,000 and some teams that I don’t have scores for. I just entered the score for all of those teams as "55", which makes a norm for all teams in the data of 57; the standard deviation is low (11), but what’s more relevant is the standard deviation among the top teams.
The most impressive rosters I found for any teams I had not previously figured were for the 1990s Atlanta Braves, with Chipper and Andruw, the Crime Dog, and the Big Three. . .six players of Hall of Fame or near-Hall of Fame stature on those rosters.
This is the all-time list, updated through seven scores:
|
YEAR
|
City
|
Team
|
Lg
|
GT1
|
GT2
|
GT3
|
GT4
|
GT5
|
GT6
|
GT7
|
Total
|
|
1907
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
124
|
125
|
109
|
104
|
96
|
808
|
|
1937
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
121
|
121
|
112
|
118
|
108
|
118
|
98
|
796
|
|
1908
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
125
|
125
|
106
|
125
|
108
|
109
|
96
|
794
|
|
1938
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
119
|
119
|
108
|
117
|
109
|
118
|
101
|
791
|
|
1939
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
118
|
118
|
123
|
114
|
109
|
118
|
91
|
791
|
|
1906
|
Chicago
|
Cubs
|
NL
|
124
|
125
|
125
|
118
|
91
|
102
|
96
|
781
|
|
1930
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
123
|
123
|
112
|
108
|
107
|
102
|
92
|
767
|
|
1929
|
Philadelphia
|
A's
|
AL
|
122
|
122
|
120
|
104
|
108
|
102
|
88
|
766
|
|
1944
|
St. Louis
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
122
|
122
|
118
|
116
|
107
|
111
|
69
|
765
|
|
1998
|
New York
|
Yankees
|
AL
|
101
|
101
|
125
|
94
|
124
|
125
|
90
|
760
|
I should also point out here that the Teams-on-Paper approach discriminates against teams from recent seasons, since the scores are based on what players did over the course of their careers, and the system is thus comparing incomplete careers to completed careers. The system gives low scores to teams from 2005 to the present—but that’s alright, at least by me. I don’t want to be declaring the 2009 Phillies the greatest team ever anyway; I think that’s the sort of conclusion that you reach when you get a little perspective on their accomplishments.
8) The Time Line Adjustment
To this point in our analysis, 68 of the top 100 teams in history, and 9 of the top 10, played before 1960--that is, in the first half of baseball history. 51 of the top 100 played before 1940. All of the top teams in baseball history played a long time ago.
I don’t believe that that is true—nor, I think, does anyone else, now that Dutch Schultz has gone to his reward. (Dutch was a very active member of SABR back in the old days, when SABR was a collection of cranks and hobbyists, rather than a collection of academics and quasi-academics. Dutch was a very sweet man and I was quite fond of him, but Dutch resented the hyping of Joe DiMaggio when Joe came to the majors in 1936, and never accepted that DiMaggio was a better ballplayer than his hero, Al Simmons. He sincerely believed that baseball had reached its apogee about 1934, and had been in decline ever since. There would never be another Al Simmons in his eyes.)
Anyway, another way to look at this is to look at the top scores by era. Let’s look at the top ten teams of 1900-1909, 1910-1919, 1920-1929, etc. These are the average scores of the top teams, by era:
|
|
|
1900
|
-
|
1919
|
709
|
|
|
|
1920
|
-
|
1939
|
720
|
|
|
|
1940
|
-
|
1959
|
712
|
|
|
|
1960
|
-
|
1979
|
684
|
|
|
|
1980
|
-
|
1999
|
664
|
The average of the top teams of the 1920s and 1930s was 720; the average of the top teams from 1980 to 1999 was 664. The average went down by 56 points in 60 years. I don’t think the recent teams are weaker than the early teams; I think they’re stronger. I don’t want to make them systematically stronger, but I want to flatten it out.
What I am essentially going to do here is to add one point per year, but there is more to it than that. While we are dealing with the time line, we should also deal with some of the other obvious factors that cause the quality of talent to dip or soar. But, as a starting point, let’s say that 2010 = 125, and each year before 2010 is one less:
|
|
|
1880
|
0
|
1890
|
5
|
1900
|
15
|
|
|
|
1881
|
0
|
1891
|
6
|
1901
|
16
|
|
|
|
1882
|
0
|
1892
|
7
|
1902
|
17
|
|
|
|
1883
|
0
|
1893
|
8
|
1903
|
18
|
|
|
|
1884
|
0
|
1894
|
9
|
1904
|
19
|
|
|
|
1885
|
0
|
1895
|
10
|
1905
|
20
|
|
1876
|
0
|
1886
|
1
|
1896
|
11
|
1906
|
21
|
|
1877
|
0
|
1887
|
2
|
1897
|
12
|
1907
|
22
|
|
1878
|
0
|
1888
|
3
|
1898
|
13
|
1908
|
23
|
|
1879
|
0
|
1889
|
4
|
1899
|
14
|
1909
|
24
|
|
1910
|
25
|
1920
|
35
|
1930
|
45
|
1940
|
55
|
|
1911
|
26
|
1921
|
36
|
1931
|
46
|
1941
|
56
|
|
1912
|
27
|
1922
|
37
|
1932
|
47
|
1942
|
57
|
|
1913
|
28
|
1923
|
38
|
1933
|
48
|
1943
|
58
|
|
1914
|
29
|
1924
|
39
|
1934
|
49
|
1944
|
59
|
|
1915
|
30
|
1925
|
40
|
1935
|
50
|
1945
|
60
|
|
1916
|
31
|
1926
|
41
|
1936
|
51
|
1946
|
61
|
|
1917
|
32
|
1927
|
42
|
1937
|
52
|
1947
|
62
|
|
1918
|
33
|
1928
|
43
|
1938
|
53
|
1948
|
63
|
|
1919
|
34
|
1929
|
44
|
1939
|
54
|
1949
|
64
|
|
1950
|
65
|
1960
|
75
|
1970
|
85
|
1980
|
95
|
|
1951
|
66
|
1961
|
76
|
1971
|
86
|
1981
|
96
|
|
1952
|
67
|
1962
|
77
|
1972
|
87
|
1982
|
97
|
|
1953
|
68
|
1963
|
78
|
1973
|
88
|
1983
|
98
|
|
1954
|
69
|
1964
|
79
|
1974
|
89
|
1984
|
99
|
|
1955
|
70
|
1965
|
80
|
1975
|
90
|
1985
|
100
|
|
1956
|
71
|
1966
|
81
|
1976
|
91
|
1986
|
101
|
|
1957
|
72
|
1967
|
82
|
1977
|
92
|
1987
|
102
|
|
1958
|
73
|
1968
|
83
|
1978
|
93
|
1988
|
103
|
|
1959
|
74
|
1969
|
84
|
1979
|
94
|
1989
|
104
|
|
1990
|
105
|
2000
|
115
|
2010
|
125
|
|
1991
|
106
|
2001
|
116
|
|
|
|
1992
|
107
|
2002
|
117
|
|
|
|
1993
|
108
|
2003
|
118
|
|
|
|
1994
|
109
|
2004
|
119
|
|
|
|
1995
|
110
|
2005
|
120
|
|
|
|
1996
|
111
|
2006
|
121
|
|
|
|
1997
|
112
|
2007
|
122
|
|
|
|
1998
|
113
|
2008
|
123
|
|
|
|
1999
|
114
|
2009
|
124
|
|
|
This assumes, however, that the quality of baseball was better in 1945 than in 1935, which we all know is not true, and also it ignores expansion and various other issues. So I modified this chart by making the following adjustments.
First, for World War II—Minus 10 points for 1942, Minus 15 for 1943, Minus 20 for 1944, Minus 25 for 1945, Minus 10 for 1946.
Second, for each expansion of two teams—Minus 10 points for the first year of the expansion, minus 9 for the second year, minus 8 for the third year, minus 7 for the fourth year, etc.—thus assuming that the effects of the expansion take ten years to wash out. The 1961 season is -10; the 1962 season is -19, which is -10 for the 1961 expansion and -9 for the 1962 expansion. We take away 20 points beginning in 1969, 10 points beginning in 1977, 10 points beginning in 1993, and 10 points beginning in 1998.
For the same reason, as baseball expanded by four teams between 1899 and 1901, we take away 20 points beginning in 1901, but add 20 points to the 1900 season.
Because of the dilution of talent by the Federal League (1914-1915) we will take away ten points from each of those seasons.
Third, I took away 20 points from "damaged seasons", the damaged seasons being 1994, 1981, and 1918; I assume most of you will understand the reasons for this (although the adjustment is immaterial, since no teams from those seasons rank as all-time great teams anyway.)
Fourth, I took away 5 points from each season 1915-1920 because of the scandals of that era. Some players of that era were engaged in dishonest practices, not giving a full effort to win; fans were aware of this, it damaged the game, and I think it has to be taken into account in evaluating that era.
Fifth, for the same reason, I took away 5 points from each season of the steroid era, dating the steroid era at 1992-2004. This is not an easy call in my mind. The other factors we have accounted for here impacted the quality of play. Steroids didn’t make the quality of play worse in the majors; they made it better, or at least higher. Players didn’t take steroids to make them play worse.
Still, the steroid era is perceived by most fans, I believe, as a damaged era. If players cheated to be better, do we say that that was better? I believe this issue may have been debated before, and we won’t go through that again, but. . .I’m discounting those seasons slightly.
With those adjustments made, these, then, are the "strength of schedule" adjustments for each season in baseball history:
|
|
|
1880
|
0
|
1890
|
5
|
1900
|
35
|
|
|
|
1881
|
0
|
1891
|
6
|
1901
|
0
|
|
|
|
1882
|
0
|
1892
|
7
|
1902
|
0
|
|
|
|
1883
|
0
|
1893
|
8
|
1903
|
2
|
|
|
|
1884
|
0
|
1894
|
9
|
1904
|
5
|
|
|
|
1885
|
0
|
1895
|
10
|
1905
|
8
|
|
1876
|
0
|
1886
|
1
|
1896
|
11
|
1906
|
11
|
|
1877
|
0
|
1887
|
2
|
1897
|
12
|
1907
|
14
|
|
1878
|
0
|
1888
|
3
|
1898
|
13
|
1908
|
17
|
|
1879
|
0
|
1889
|
4
|
1899
|
14
|
1909
|
20
|
|
1910
|
23
|
1920
|
30
|
1930
|
45
|
1940
|
55
|
|
1911
|
26
|
1921
|
36
|
1931
|
46
|
1941
|
56
|
|
1912
|
27
|
1922
|
37
|
1932
|
47
|
1942
|
47
|
|
1913
|
28
|
1923
|
38
|
1933
|
48
|
1943
|
43
|
|
1914
|
19
|
1924
|
39
|
1934
|
49
|
1944
|
39
|
|
1915
|
15
|
1925
|
40
|
1935
|
50
|
1945
|
35
|
|
1916
|
26
|
1926
|
41
|
1936
|
51
|
1946
|
51
|
|
1917
|
27
|
1927
|
42
|
1937
|
52
|
1947
|
62
|
|
1918
|
8
|
1928
|
43
|
1938
|
53
|
1948
|
63
|
|
1919
|
29
|
1929
|
44
|
1939
|
54
|
1949
|
64
|
|
1950
|
65
|
1960
|
75
|
1970
|
64
|
1980
|
88
|
|
1951
|
66
|
1961
|
66
|
1971
|
69
|
1981
|
70
|
|
1952
|
67
|
1962
|
58
|
1972
|
73
|
1982
|
92
|
|
1953
|
68
|
1963
|
61
|
1973
|
76
|
1983
|
94
|
|
1954
|
69
|
1964
|
64
|
1974
|
79
|
1984
|
96
|
|
1955
|
70
|
1965
|
67
|
1975
|
82
|
1985
|
98
|
|
1956
|
71
|
1966
|
70
|
1976
|
85
|
1986
|
100
|
|
1957
|
72
|
1967
|
73
|
1977
|
78
|
1987
|
102
|
|
1958
|
73
|
1968
|
76
|
1978
|
82
|
1988
|
103
|
|
1959
|
74
|
1969
|
59
|
1979
|
86
|
1989
|
104
|
|
1990
|
105
|
2000
|
99
|
2010
|
125
|
|
1991
|
106
|
2001
|
102
|
|
|
|
1992
|
102
|
2002
|
105
|
|
|
|
1993
|
93
|
2003
|
108
|
|
|
|
1994
|
75
|
2004
|
110
|
|
|
|
1995
|
97
|
2005
|
117
|
|
|
|
1996
|
99
|
2006
|
119
|
|
|
|
1997
|
101
|
2007
|
121
|
|
|
|
1998
|
93
|
2008
|
123
|
|
|
|
1999
|
96
|
2009
|
124
|
|
|
OK, those are the GT8 scores, the "Great Team Scores" for each season in baseball history. These GT8 scores have an average for all teams in baseball history of 62.3, but a rather high standard deviation (37.2. The significance of the category to the overall values depends on the standard deviation, not the average.) When we add these to what we had before, it produces a very close contest for the position of being the greatest team in baseball history.
Drum Roll, please.
(The list will be presented here tomorrow.)