About 30 years ago I invented something called a "Game Score" for a pitcher. A Game Score is a way of evaluating a pitcher’s performance in a game on a zero to a hundred score, essentially; a pitcher can in theory score over 100 or under zero, but it doesn’t happen every year. The Game Score has been a moderately successful innovation. It’s in box scores in some sources; it’s been used by other researchers, it’s been written about. It’s survived.
For several years I have been looking for some way to develop a "Power Score" for a game. . ..I have Power Scores for pitchers, but Power Scores for games. About a year ago I finally settled on a method. Don’t ask me why it’s taken me a year to write this up; it’s a measure of my DQ (Disorganization Quotient). I’ll guarantee you there hasn’t been a day in the last year that I didn’t think I ought to go write that up.
Anyway, here it is. The Game Score system for pitchers is this:
Credit the pitcher with 50 points,
Plus one point for each out recorded,
Plus two points for each inning completed after the fourth inning,
Plus one point for a strikeout,
Minus one point for a walk,
Minus two points for a hit allowed,
Minus two points for a run allowed,
Minus an additional two points for an earned run allowed.
That’s been around forever; that formula has been printed a thousand times. The new one is this:
Credit the pitcher with 50 points,
Minus one point for each out recorded,
Minus two points for each inning completed after the fourth inning,
Minus one point for a hit allowed,
Plus five points for a strikeout,
Plus three points for a walk.
Let us take the game pitched by Rudy May for the Angels on August 10, 1972—9 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 1 earned, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts. That’s a Power Score of 100. .. .50 points, minus 27 for the outs (23), minus 10 for innings completed (13), minus 5 for hits allowed (8), plus 80 for strikeouts (88), plus 12 for walks (100).
Let us take the game pitched by Reggie Cleveland on September 25, 1977—9 innings, 18 hits allowed, 5 runs, 5 earned, no walks, 1 strikeout. That’s a power score of zero. . ..50 points, minus 27 for the outs (23), minus 10 for innings completed (13), minus 18 for hits allowed (-5), plus 5 for the strikeout (0).
From that premise there are about 18,000 questions one can reasonably ask, and I know the answers to all of those questions; that’s why it has taken me a year to get this out. I have too much information. But let’s get to a few of them.
What are the Biggest Power Games of All Time?
I am working, of course, with the Retrosheet data, and, for that matter, with the Retrosheet data as it was about 18 months ago; it gets better all the time. In the data that I have the number one power game of the last fifty years was by. . . .
Do I even need to say it? You know who the number one Power Game was by, don’t you? Nolan Ryan, September 10, 1976, against the White Sox. Ryan pitched 9 innings in that game, (50 – 27 = 23, -10 = 13), giving up 3 hits (13 – 3 = 10). He struck out 18 batters (10 + 90 = 100), and walked 9, giving him a Power Score for the game of 127 (100 + 27 = 127). These are the top Power Games in my data:
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Date
|
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
BB
|
SO
|
Power
Score
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
September 10, 1976
|
|
9
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
9
|
18
|
127
|
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
September 27, 1992
|
|
8
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
18
|
114
|
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
September 16, 1993
|
|
7.1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
6
|
15
|
114
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
June 8, 1977
|
|
10
|
6
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
19
|
112
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
September 28, 1974
|
|
9
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
15
|
112
|
|
|
Tom
|
Seaver
|
April 22, 1970
|
|
9
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
19
|
112
|
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
August 8, 1997
|
|
9
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
19
|
112
|
|
|
Kerry
|
Wood
|
May 6, 1998
|
|
9
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
20
|
112
|
|
|
Max
|
Scherzer
|
May 30, 2010
|
|
5.2
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
14
|
111
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
June 14, 1974
|
|
13
|
8
|
3
|
3
|
10
|
19
|
110
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
July 15, 1973
|
|
9
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
17
|
110
|
|
|
Sam
|
McDowell
|
July 4, 1964
|
|
7.2
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
11
|
12
|
110
|
|
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
April 29, 1986
|
|
9
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
20
|
110
|
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
May 8, 2001
|
|
9
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
20
|
110
|
|
|
Jake
|
Peavy
|
April 25, 2007
|
|
7
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
16
|
110
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
August 20, 1974
|
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
19
|
109
|
|
|
Sandy
|
Koufax
|
April 24, 1962
|
|
9
|
6
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
18
|
109
|
|
|
A.J.
|
Burnett
|
July 6, 2005
|
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
5
|
14
|
109
|
|
|
Roger
|
Clemens
|
September 18, 1996
|
|
9
|
5
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
20
|
108
|
|
|
David
|
Cone
|
October 6, 1991
|
|
9
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
19
|
108
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
August 12, 1974
|
|
9
|
7
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
19
|
107
|
|
|
Nolan
|
Ryan
|
April 21, 1979
|
|
7.2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
12
|
107
|
|
|
Herb
|
Score
|
May 1, 1957
|
|
6.1
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
8
|
12
|
107
|
|
|
Jim
|
Maloney
|
May 21, 1963
|
|
8.1
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
16
|
107
|
|
|
Bobby
|
Witt
|
April 17, 1986
|
|
5
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
8
|
10
|
107
|
|
|
Floyd
|
Youmans
|
September 27, 1986
|
|
9
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
7
|
15
|
107
|
|
|
Daniel
|
Cabrera
|
April 12, 2006
|
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
9
|
10
|
107
|
There are 27 games in that list. Of those 27, eight are by Nolan Ryan, four by Randy Johnson, two by Roger Clemens, and one each by 13 other pitchers. In these 27 games the pitchers won 15, lost 3, pitched 225 innings giving up 87 hits, striking out 445 and walking 131, posting an ERA of 1.32.
What are the Lowest Power Game Scores?
These are the ten lowest games.
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Date
|
|
IP
|
H
|
R
|
ER
|
BB
|
SO
|
Power Score
|
|
|
Warren
|
Spahn
|
July 2, 1963
|
|
15.1
|
9
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
-14
|
|
|
Robin
|
Roberts
|
September 6, 1952
|
|
17
|
18
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
-11
|
|
|
Lew
|
Burdette
|
May 26, 1959
|
|
13
|
12
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
-9
|
|
|
Cal
|
McLish
|
July 22, 1958
|
|
12
|
11
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
1
|
-8
|
|
|
Don
|
Newcombe
|
September 19, 1959
|
|
11.1
|
7
|
3
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
-5
|
|
|
Warren
|
Hacker
|
June 21, 1955
|
|
10.2
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
1
|
0
|
-1
|
|
|
Bill
|
Lee
|
September 21, 1974
|
|
10
|
14
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
|
Lew
|
Burdette
|
August 8, 1956
|
|
10
|
8
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
Reggie
|
Cleveland
|
September 25, 1977
|
|
9
|
18
|
5
|
5
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
|
Bill
|
Wegman
|
July 11, 1992
|
|
9
|
13
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
The lowest score was by Warren Spahn in the famous 16-inning 1-0 duel with Juan Marichal in 1963, in which Spahn struck out only two batters. The #3 game was Burdette’s half of the duel with Harvey Haddix, in which Haddix pitched 12 perfect innings, lost the game in the 13th.
In these 10 games these nine pitchers (Burdette twice) pitched 117.1 innings, giving up 120 hits but only 5 walks, 12 strikeouts, 5 wins, 4 losses, 2.38 ERA.
How Many Games are Over 100 or under zero?
Less than one in 2,000. There are just short of 227,000 pitcher starts in my data. There are 89 with Power Scores of 100 or better, 10 with Power Scores of zero or less. More than 99.9% of games are between 1 and 99.
What is the average Power Score?
Is the average Power Score about the same now as it was years ago? How much has it changed
over time?
To what extent do Power Games tend also to be Quality Games?
Does a pitcher like Nolan Ryan throw 60% Power Games, or 70%, or what?
Who are the greatest Power Pitchers in history, by this method?
Who are the greatest Control Pitchers?
Are "Power Tendencies" stronger or weaker than "quality tendencies?"
To what extent is "Power" a function of youth?
To what extent is "Power" predictive of future performance?
Of what actual use in the Power Game Score?
Teaser. We’ll get to all of these questions over the next two days.