Fourth of July Poll Report
Good morning everybody. With 977 twitter people responding in Poll #84, we now have had more than 100,000 responses in the process, a little milestone I guess. The rankings below represent a distillation of the feedback from about 60,000 of those, the other 40,000 being no longer relevant because they were so long ago that we can now say that we have more current information about those candidates.
John Delaney was the Big Fish is the Little Pond yesterday, winning 34% of the vote in a contest representing about 3½% of the vote distribution. It was the best polling performance Delaney has ever had. It pushes him up a few points and puts him ahead of Gravel and Williamson, although Williamson also established a new high-water mark for herself, at 74. Bill de Blasio also had his best polling performance in quite some time, drawing 26% support. . .not that 26% in a poll of tail-enders is anything, really, but he is in 28th place among the 28 candidates being tracked, which means he should finish last in any polling group, and he didn’t finish last; he finished second. A chart summary of yesterday’s poll:
Scores
|
Flake
|
121
|
Schultz
|
110
|
de Blasio
|
49
|
Delaney
|
65
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Flake
|
35
|
Schultz
|
32
|
de Blasio
|
14
|
Delaney
|
19
|
Actual
|
Flake
|
24
|
Schultz
|
16
|
de Blasio
|
26
|
Delaney
|
34
|
Since yesterday:
Delaney is up 11 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Bernie Sanders is up 9 points as a result of the removal of the May 14th poll from the relevant data.
Bill de Blasio is up 7 point as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Jeff Flake is down 7 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Howard Schultz is down 10 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
Stacey Abrams is down 12 points as a result of the removal of the May 14th poll.
The current standings:
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Current
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
2000
|
2
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
1043
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1042
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
837
|
5
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
493
|
6
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
442
|
7
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
433
|
8
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
383
|
9
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
335
|
10
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
327
|
11
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
310
|
12
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
276
|
13
|
Stacey
|
Abrams
|
253
|
14
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
216
|
15
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
215
|
16
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
212
|
17
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
181
|
18
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
133
|
19
|
Jeff
|
Flake
|
114
|
20
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
100
|
21
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
99
|
22
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
89
|
23
|
Eric
|
Swalwell
|
86
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
84
|
25
|
John
|
Delaney
|
76
|
26
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
74
|
27
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
69
|
28
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
56
|
Thanks for reading, and for voting. Enjoy the holiday.