How often does a team’s opening day starter turn out to be actually the best pitcher on the team?  That was the question that got me started on this:  Do most opening-day starters actually turn out to be the best pitchers on their team, or not?   What percentage of the time would you guess a team’s opening day starter turns out to be the team’s best starting pitcher:

                a)  14%

                b)  34%

                c)  54%

                d)  74%

                While figuring that, of course, I developed 10,000 other factoids, a few of which might be interesting enough to pass along. . .or not; I can never tell.

                Most opening-day starts, 1960 to the present, not including 2014:

                Most years as his team’s best pitcher, 1960 to the present:

                There’s a fact for you:  Bert Blyleven had almost twice as many years as his team’s #1 starting pitcher as Bob Gibson did, 15 to 8.  Gibson, 1962, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972; Blyleven, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1985, 1986 (Twins),  1976, 1977 (Rangers),  1978, 1979 (Pirates),  1981, 1984, 1985 (Indians),  1989 (Angels).  In 1976 Blyleven split the season between the Rangers and the Twins and was by far the best pitcher on either team, so he gets to count one team, but not both.

                Tom Seaver had twelve seasons in which he was both his team’s best pitcher and their opening day starter:

                Seaver, then, had four seasons in which he was his team’s opening day starter but not their best pitcher, two seasons in which he was a team’s best pitcher but not their opening day starter, and 12 seasons in which he was both:

                There’s a little formula for "Staff ace points" there—1 point for being the Opening Day Starter but not the team’s best pitcher, 2 points for being the team’s best pitcher but not their Opening Day Starter, 5 points for being both.  Tom Seaver, Bert Blyleven, Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton are the top staff aces of the last 50 years.   Dennis Martinez does surprisingly well here. ..better than Gibson or Marichal or Schilling.

                I should have saved a note as to who was a team’s worst opening day starter, but I failed to do that.   While I was doing this, it was pretty easy to figure pitcher records on opening day assignments.  The best pitcher in the group in Opening Day games was:   Rick Mahler.  Seriously.  Mahler pitched Opening Day for the Braves in 1982, at San Diego, pitched a 2-hit shutout.  He didn’t draw the Opening Day assignment again until 1985 in Philadelphia, opened at Philadelphia in 1983, against Steve Carlton:  7 shutout innings, 3 hits.  Against Montreal in Atlanta, 1986, he pitched a 5-hit shutout.  Against Philadelphia in 1987, a 3-hit shutout.  Four Opening Day starts, 4 wins, 34 innings, only 13 hits, no runs (earned or un-earned), 0.00 ERA.

                Jack Morris won the most Opening-Day starts (8); Steve Carlton lost the most (9).   Phil Niekro was 0-7 on Opening Days, 7.31 ERA.  These are the Opening Day records of pitchers with 8 or more Opening Day starts, or with five or more and notably good or bad performance:

                This data does not include 2014.  King Felix actually made his 7^th Opening Day start this season and won, raising him to 5-0 on Opening Day, ERA now at 1.52.  Great Opening Day records:   Big Unit, Marichal, Maddux, Lolich, Felix; worst include Niekro, Sabathia, Carlos Zambrano.  Drysdale (5-0, 1.71 ERA) probably had some Opening Day assignments in the 1950s, before this study started, I don’t know.

                OK, the question with which we started the exercise:  How often does the Opening Day starter turn out to be the team’s best pitcher, over the course of the season?   34%.