Pablo Sandoval should win the NL MVP.
Okay…that depends on how you understand the MVP. If you're one of those persnickety people who believes that a player’s contributions in a given season should be viewed in isolation, ignoring the contextual issues of who his teammates are and where his team finishes in the postseason, then Pablo Sandoval is not your National League MVP. Matt Kemp is.
If you’re the kind of person who believes that a player should be a) one of the very best players in the league, and b) someone whose team is in the playoff chase, then you can go with Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder or Roy Halladay or (the newest name being thrown into the MVP debate) Shane Victorino. They’re all almost as good as Matt Kemp, and unlike Kemp they’ll all be playing in October.
But…if you’re the kind of person who believes that the MVP should go to the player who is the most essential to his team’s success, the player whose value within the context of his team is higher than anyone else in baseball, the most indispensible player: then Pablo Sandoval is your man.
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Today….just ten minutes ago, Pablo Sandoval stepped in against Astros closer Mark Melancon in the top of the 11th inning of a tie game. There were two outs in the inning, and the Giants (the defending World Champions) were trying to avoid being swept by the Astros, a last-place team that traded away two-thirds of their outfield weeks earlier. They were trying to gain a game in the standing against Arizona, who lost 1-0 to the Braves earlier today.
Sandoval homered: a two-run shot to center field. The Giants won.
If he hadn’t homered, if Pablo Sandoval had made an out, it is likely that the Giants would not have scored until at least the 14th inning, when Sandoval was next due up. That’s because Pablo Sandoval has been all of the Giants offense this season. All of it.
The Giants have played 128 games this year. Sandoval has played in just 85 of those contests: he was on the DL for all of May and half of June with a broken hand.
Despite having missed 34% of the season, Pablo ranks first among Giants hitters in Wins Above Replacement, with a 3.8 mark (that tally was before his two-run homer today). He is not just ahead of the next hitter on the team (Nate Schierholtz): he’s ahead of the next two hitters on the Giants (Schierholtz has a WAR of 1.6, Posey is, and will remain, at 1.4). You could add the third best player (Burrell or Sanchez, 1.0 WAR each) and Pablo is just about even: 3.8 WAR for Pablo, 4.0 WAR for SchierPosBurrChez).
Pablo leads the team in batting average at .309: the next best batting averages among regulars are: .289, .278, .248, .239. (That’s right: the fifth best batting average on the Giants is two-thirty-nine).
Pablo leads in on-base percentage, with a .351 mark. The next best on-base percentages among Giants players are .332, .325, .321. The average on-base percentage, across the entire National League, is .319. That’s including the pitchers.
Pablo leads in slugging percentage, with a .514 mark. The next best in slugging percentage is Nate Schierholtz, at .432. They are the only two Giants with a slugging percentage over .400. The NL average? .390. Again, including the pitchers. The Giants have three regulars with slugging percentages that exceed the NL average.
In addition to being far-and-away the best hitter in the lineup, Sandoval has had an excellent defensive season at third base. Really…by whatever metric you choose to use, Pablo has been fantastically good at third.
Here are the best defensive players in baseball in 2011, according to Fangraphs:
Brett Gardner
Dustin Pedroia
Howie Kendrick
Franklin Gutierrez
Geraldo Parra
Justin Upton
Ian Kinsler
Pablo Sandoval
Alex Rodriguez
Jacoby Ellsbury
Those first seven…they make sense…they’re who you’d expect. And then…Pablo Sandoval?
What’s most remarkable is that Sandoval has played significantly fewer games than the other players on the list…which means that on a game-by-game basis, Pablo Sandoval – possessor of a round frame and a slow gait - might be the best defensive player in baseball right now. Pick your jaw up, please.
Most Valuable
If Roy Halladay blew out his arm, the Phillies would reach the postseason. If Matt Kemp was traded to the Yankees, the Dodgers would finish about where they’ll finish anyway.
If Pablo Sandoval gets hurt, the Giants will not have an offense, and will miss the playoffs. It’s that simple. If Sandoval gets hurt, the Giants don’t score runs, which means they don’t win games, which means they don’t reach the playoffs.
There are other players for whom the same can be said: Justin Upton. Asdrubal Cabrera. But…I don’t think there is anyone else in baseball who is more necessary to their team’s success than Pablo Sandoval is for the Giants.
Is he the MVP? No…not by measures of ability. Sandoval is not a great player: he is not Kemp or Bautista or Votto. He is a very good player, on a team that has no other good offensive players.
But…I think that Sandoval’s story is the best story in baseball right now. Here’s a guy who struggled so badly last year, that his team benched him during the World Series. Here’s a player who got off to a great April this year, and then broke his hand, and then came back hitting like he had never gone away. Here’s a man who has the physique of a retired linebacker, who is playing defense at a crucial position better than anyone else in the major leagues. He’s a great story.
I root for Sandoval: I think you’d have to be a little dead inside (or from Philadelphia) to not root for the Panda; to not like the guy. That said, he is obviously not the National League MVP in 2011: he is not the best player in the league, or even one of the five best players in the league.
And…I don’t know of anyone else who is more valuable to their team than Pablo Sandoval is to the Giants.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and those weird Panda hats that they wear in San Francisco, both here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.