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The Best Players of 2011 Based on Total Runs

By John Dewan
March 24, 2012

One of the byproducts of our work developing a system to measure runs for defensive play (Defensive Runs Saved) is that we can combine it with runs for offensive play and runs for pitching.  We do this in the book, The Fielding Bible – Volume III, and call it Total Runs.  The goal for Total Runs is to capture a player’s entire contribution to his team in the currency of the game – runs.  Here is the top 10 leaderboard from the book for the 2011 season.  This is a list of the best overall players in baseball in 2011 based on all aspects of the game, as best we can measure them with our Total Runs system.

2011 Total Runs Leaders
Player Runs
Created		 Baserunning
Runs		 Pitching
Runs
Created		 Runs
Saved		 Positional
Adjustment		 Total
Runs
Jacoby Ellsbury 131 4 0 7 27 169
Dustin Pedroia 116 -2 0 18 31 163
Ian Kinsler 106 9 0 18 28 161
Matt Kemp 131 4 0 -5 28 158
Ben Zobrist 98 2 0 29 28 157
Jose Bautista 134 5 0 -2 18 155
Alex Gordon 112 6 0 19 17 154
Justin Verlander 0 0 143 5 3 151
Ryan Braun 127 2 0 3 16 148
Adrian Gonzalez 127 -5 0 12 12 146


Both the reigning American League and National League MVPs, Justin Verlander and Ryan Braun, had impressive seasons in 2011, but using Total Runs we find that there were more valuable players in each league.  In the National League, Matt Kemp produced 158 Total Runs despite costing his team five runs in the field.  Kemp was one home run shy of joining the 40/40 club and led the senior circuit in home runs, RBI, and runs scored in 2011.  Jacoby Ellsbury had a tremendous year with the bat en route to 131 Runs Created.  Ellsbury also had positive contributions on the basepaths and in the field.  He led all players with 169 Total Runs in 2011.      
 
Total Runs uses a few different measures of a player’s ability.  We measure offense using Bill James’ Runs Created system.  His system measures stolen base runs, but excludes activity on the basepaths other than that.  We add in Baserunnning Runs to complete the offensive part of the equation.  For pitching, we have an article in the book that describes how we developed our new Pitching Runs Created system so that we can measure a pitcher’s contribution compared with a hitter.  The last part is the Positional Adjustment.

This is a technique we developed three years ago in The Fielding Bible – Volume II to take into account, for example, that a shortstop has more defensive value than a first baseman.  Our Defensive Runs Saved system doesn't reflect the relative defensive importance of one defensive position compared to another, which makes the Positional Adjustment necessary.  

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COMMENTS (12 Comments, most recent shown first)

cderosa
rwclayton7,
Pedroia has a higher number because he played more innings at 2B. The positional baseline for second basemen is 32 runs saved per 1440 innings played.


4:03 PM Mar 28th
 
Rwclayton7
Another question: why is Pedroia's positional adjustment so much larger (three runs) than Kinsler's or Zobrist's, given that they each play 2B?
10:13 AM Mar 28th
 
Rwclayton7
What is the underlying theory of how Total Runs relates to wins? If we added up all the Total Runs for a team, would this sum serve as a predictor of a teams winning pctg? How accurate a predictor is it, compared to (for example) either version of WAR, marginal runs, the pythagorean method, etc.?
10:10 AM Mar 28th
 
those
I read somewhere that when compiling baserunning data and outfielders arms, the number of outs and field the ball was hit to were not part of the equation. Is this correct?
11:36 AM Mar 26th
 
cderosa
To follow up on this a bit, you can find the explanation for how the positional defensive baselines are figured on pp 385-390 of Dewan, Fielding Bible Vol *II*, in the James article "Crossing Positions."

At that time, Bill figured the average % of runs prevented attributable to fielders (as opposed to pitchers) at 28%, and used 2005-2007 data to estimate the baselines.

The Fielding Bible *III* has the same average fielding baselines (29 runs per 1440 innings for a centerfielder, for example) as the Fielding Bible II, but does not mention whether it updated the method with 2009-2011 data and it made no difference, or whether it is still using the 2005-2007 estimate from "Crossing Positions."

Nor does it mention anything about adjusting the method for James's changed assumption from an average of 28% of runs saved attributed to fielders to 33% in the Runs Saved Against Zero article (see p153 of Vol III).


10:09 AM Mar 26th
 
cderosa
I think of the positional adjustment as necessary to convert the defensive runs saved, which are measured from the average at the position, to the same scale as runs created, which start from zero.

The system is essentially saying that Ellsbury contributed 131 runs with the bat, and 34 runs with the glove (27+7), compared to someone making no contrbution at all (0).

I would not that the baserunning runs are also set against an average, but no effort is made to convert them to the same scale, so the offensive side of the Total Runs ledger is probably short.

Of course, because the raw total of runs contributed (i.e. created and prevented) is not contextualized for the number of outs used or the park effects, this is not really "a list of the best overall players in baseball in 2011 based on all aspects of the game" any more than a list of the raw Runs Created leaders would be a list of the best hitters. We would take that list and figure runs created per 27 outs, or offensive winning percentage, to refine it.

But you could pursue that contextualization yourself if you liked the method enough. It could be really useful if "positional adjustment+Defensive Runs Saved" gave us a good estimate of total runs prevented (if it tracked Bill's Runs Saved Against Zero estimate, for instance).
7:42 AM Mar 26th
 
evanecurb
Cool methodology. I am not sure why the positional adjustment is included in the calculation of total runs. I suppose the logic goes something like this:

If you are a great hitter who also is a shortstop, you create runs for your team by virtue of the fact that you don't play DH or first base, etc., thus leaving those positions open for another guy who could hit.

Is that the logic?
8:53 PM Mar 25th
 
bill byrd
positional adjustment SHOULD NOT be worth that much!!!

5:32 PM Mar 25th
 
MWeddell
Actually, after I just posted a moderately snarky response, I'm not sure that any park factors are included in that table.
4:07 PM Mar 25th
 
MWeddell
Don't you need a little more evidence than noting that the top two players (and none of the next eight) are from the same team before accusing someone who owns a company devoted to developing baseball statistics that his park factors need to be tweaked?

Please note that the Boston Red Sox led the majors in most runs scored in road games during 2011.
espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/34
At least some of the position players on that team must have had a good year.
4:05 PM Mar 25th
 
jollydodger
Anywhere we can get all major-leaguer's total runs, besides one at a time on this site?
11:14 AM Mar 25th
 
snerze
Looking at the list, I'm inclined to think that two Red Sox players (and those two in particular) at the top is showing a problem with the formula given that Ball Park's particular advantages. So I think a better park factor tweak is needed.
7:51 AM Mar 25th
 
 
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