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2018 BBWAA Hall of Fame Prediction Contest - Summary of Entries

By Daniel Marks
December 5, 2017
 
The "How Well Do You Know Your BBWAA" contest is now closed.  26 entries were submitted, exceeding last year’s inaugural total of 18.
 A 27th entry was also submitted which "predicted" 37% for each candidate, but I’m not including that one in the summary data below, so that it doesn’t influence the data.
Here are some results gathered from the entries submitted:
 
Average, High, Low, and Range (Distance between high and low)
(Sorted by the player’s average predicted vote %)
*-First time on the BBWAA ballot
 
Player
Avg
Hi
Low
Range
 Chipper Jones*
89.2
97.0
78.2
18.8
 Vladimir Guerrero
78.1
87.0
64.0
23.0
 Trevor Hoffman
77.8
83.0
67.5
15.5
 Jim Thome*
75.5
90.0
50.0
40.0
 Edgar Martinez
65.5
74.0
46.5
27.5
 Roger Clemens
61.1
71.0
52.0
19.0
 Barry Bonds
60.6
72.0
50.0
22.0
 Mike Mussina
60.2
69.0
51.5
17.5
 Curt Schilling
47.8
75.3
35.8
39.5
 Omar Vizquel*
38.2
76.8
11.0
65.8
 Manny Ramirez
26.5
44.0
14.4
29.6
 Larry Walker
25.6
69.0
14.9
54.1
 Fred McGriff
24.4
69.0
18.0
51.0
 Scott Rolen*
23.7
55.4
8.0
47.4
 Jeff Kent
19.1
54.0
13.0
41.0
 Gary Sheffield
15.2
44.0
10.2
33.8
 Andruw Jones*
13.9
35.0
3.5
31.5
 Billy Wagner
13.2
33.0
6.2
26.8
 Sammy Sosa
10.9
33.0
5.0
28.0
 Johan Santana*
10.9
34.5
-
34.5
 Jamie Moyer*
4.0
11.4
-
11.4
 Johnny Damon*
3.4
12.1
0.5
11.6
 Chris Carpenter*
2.2
25.0
-
25.0
 Carlos Lee*
1.8
26.0
-
26.0
 Hideki Matsui*
1.6
15.0
-
15.0
 Kerry Wood*
0.4
3.4
-
3.4
 Livan Hernandez*
0.4
8.0
-
8.0
 Brad Lidge*
0.4
5.0
-
5.0
 Kevin Millwood*
0.4
3.0
-
3.0
 Jason Isringhausen*
0.2
2.0
-
2.0
 Carlos Zambrano*
0.2
1.4
-
1.4
 Aubrey Huff*
0.1
1.9
-
1.9
 Orlando Hudson*
0.0
0.5
-
0.5
 
 
  • If you go by the average prediction of our group, 4 players will be elected this year: Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, and Jim Thome.  I happen to agree with the group…..I think we’ll see all those 4 be elected this year.
    •  
  • 100% of the entries predict Chipper Jones will receive at least 75% of the vote
    •  
  • 24 of the 26 entries (92%) predict Trevor Hoffman will receive at least 75% of the vote
    •  
  • 23 of the 26 entries 17 (88%) predict Vladimir Guerrero will receive at least 75% of the vote
    •  
  • 19 of the 26 entries 17 (73%) predict Jim Thome will receive at least 75% of the vote
    •  
  • Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel each had one entry that predicted that player would receive at least 75% of the vote.
    •  
  • Omar Vizquel had the greatest range of predictions, from a low of 11% to a high of 76.8%.
    •  
  • Our predictions, as a group, imply that voters will average 8.5 players per ballot.  Last year, the BBWAA voting yielded an average of 8.1 players per ballot, and the year before it was 7.9
At the end of this article is a list of all the entries.  If you would, please review your entry.  If you see any errors, please post a comment and I’ll fix it.
 
Results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote will be announced January 24, 2018, so we’ve got a fair amount of down time until that announcement.  In the interim, I will be checking in on Ryan Thibodaux’s excellent "Hall of Fame tracker" and posting occasional articles with some observations about how the voting is tracking.
 
Thanks for reading,
Dan
 
Player
aggped
bdhopkin
bjbrown
brewers_paul
Chris Bodig
chuck
Cooldrive
Barry Bonds
66.1
64.3
61.0
55.0
56.0
60.8
63.6
Chris Carpenter*
0.0
2.4
0.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
25.0
Roger Clemens
65.4
65.9
59.0
56.0
56.0
61.4
66.1
Johnny Damon*
2.6
3.5
1.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
7.0
Vladimir Guerrero
75.9
75.6
76.0
80.5
84.0
78.5
78.0
Livan Hernandez*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
8.0
Trevor Hoffman
76.6
79.0
77.0
74.5
79.0
78.0
75.0
Orlando Hudson*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Aubrey Huff*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Jason Isringhausen*
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
Andruw Jones*
9.9
14.9
9.0
3.5
7.0
19.7
8.0
Chipper Jones*
90.5
93.2
86.0
80.0
97.0
88.9
89.0
Jeff Kent
15.5
15.7
18.0
17.0
17.0
17.6
54.0
Carlos Lee*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.0
Brad Lidge*
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
Edgar Martinez
70.5
67.9
66.0
60.5
69.0
65.8
74.0
Hideki Matsui*
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
15.0
Fred McGriff
18.5
24.6
22.0
30.0
23.0
22.6
69.0
Kevin Millwood*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
Jamie Moyer*
0.0
5.1
1.0
5.0
2.0
3.4
10.0
Mike Mussina
51.5
60.0
56.0
58.5
59.0
59.8
69.0
Manny Ramirez
29.5
23.0
27.0
27.5
22.0
25.0
44.0
Scott Rolen*
16.8
24.9
18.0
10.0
10.0
21.0
43.0
Johan Santana*
0.0
11.7
3.0
3.5
7.0
10.0
25.0
Curt Schilling
39.5
51.9
45.0
45.0
50.0
45.0
75.3
Gary Sheffield
13.5
16.8
15.0
14.0
11.0
14.0
17.9
Sammy Sosa
11.5
7.9
11.0
9.5
9.0
9.0
33.0
Jim Thome*
82.5
74.9
70.0
90.0
86.0
75.4
81.0
Omar Vizquel*
39.9
31.6
55.0
15.0
37.0
34.5
57.0
Billy Wagner
11.5
13.2
11.0
11.0
10.0
11.0
33.0
Larry Walker
22.2
24.5
15.0
27.5
26.0
23.5
69.0
Kerry Wood*
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
2.0
Carlos Zambrano*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Player
Dan
DaveNJnews
gingras
Gron99
hansjn
jimburb
 
Barry Bonds
60.8
62.0
59.5
63.8
58.2
59.1
 
Chris Carpenter*
0.0
0.0
1.6
2.1
1.5
0.0
 
Roger Clemens
61.1
62.0
67.3
67.0
62.1
59.6
 
Johnny Damon*
1.5
4.0
12.1
0.8
2.5
0.5
 
Vladimir Guerrero
79.4
77.0
71.5
76.0
84.0
76.5
 
Livan Hernandez*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
 
Trevor Hoffman
77.5
82.0
77.9
82.0
79.0
82.0
 
Orlando Hudson*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Aubrey Huff*
0.0
0.0
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Jason Isringhausen*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Andruw Jones*
7.5
9.0
19.7
10.1
14.5
17.0
 
Chipper Jones*
91.2
97.0
93.5
89.4
91.2
88.0
 
Jeff Kent
17.2
18.0
21.3
14.2
19.0
15.5
 
Carlos Lee*
0.0
1.0
2.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Brad Lidge*
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Edgar Martinez
67.6
57.0
69.8
65.0
67.9
63.0
 
Hideki Matsui*
0.0
2.0
12.6
0.0
1.5
0.0
 
Fred McGriff
22.3
21.0
23.5
20.9
24.0
22.0
 
Kevin Millwood*
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Jamie Moyer*
1.2
3.0
6.4
0.0
10.8
8.0
 
Mike Mussina
56.8
52.0
62.3
61.8
60.2
57.0
 
Manny Ramirez
26.7
25.0
14.4
25.0
24.5
19.0
 
Scott Rolen*
21.0
34.0
36.3
15.0
20.5
23.0
 
Johan Santana*
4.5
6.0
11.9
2.1
10.5
22.0
 
Curt Schilling
48.0
48.0
35.8
42.0
44.0
51.0
 
Gary Sheffield
12.2
13.0
14.2
11.7
18.8
13.0
 
Sammy Sosa
9.2
12.0
9.8
6.5
6.0
5.0
 
Jim Thome*
79.5
77.0
83.2
81.1
81.5
70.0
 
Omar Vizquel*
40.5
34.0
76.8
30.4
33.0
39.0
 
Billy Wagner
9.7
17.0
12.6
8.5
15.3
15.0
 
Larry Walker
23.3
17.0
29.1
23.3
35.5
22.0
 
Kerry Wood*
0.0
0.0
2.4
0.0
2.5
0.0
 
Carlos Zambrano*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Player
jpc1957
kseesar1
llozada
MarisFan61
mikeclaw
mrbryan
OwenH
Barry Bonds
54.0
69.0
61.3
59.0
57.8
64.0
63.0
Chris Carpenter*
0.0
4.0
0.0
3.0
8.5
3.5
0.0
Roger Clemens
56.0
55.0
61.1
59.0
59.0
63.5
65.0
Johnny Damon*
2.0
8.0
1.5
3.0
1.5
7.5
4.0
Vladimir Guerrero
77.0
64.0
79.9
87.0
76.3
86.5
81.0
Livan Hernandez*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.2
0.0
Trevor Hoffman
79.0
76.0
77.8
83.0
77.3
67.5
79.0
Orlando Hudson*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
Aubrey Huff*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
Jason Isringhausen*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.2
0.0
Andruw Jones*
15.0
35.0
7.5
21.0
13.3
25.8
13.0
Chipper Jones*
91.0
84.0
92.2
87.0
78.2
92.5
93.0
Jeff Kent
15.0
22.0
17.4
16.0
15.4
15.5
28.0
Carlos Lee*
0.0
15.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
Brad Lidge*
0.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Edgar Martinez
68.0
59.0
67.9
66.0
58.6
46.5
72.0
Hideki Matsui*
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.3
1.0
0.0
Fred McGriff
24.0
22.0
22.3
23.0
21.7
19.5
26.0
Kevin Millwood*
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
Jamie Moyer*
6.0
3.0
0.8
2.0
2.4
11.4
3.0
Mike Mussina
60.0
68.0
55.8
62.0
60.1
64.5
60.0
Manny Ramirez
24.0
34.0
25.7
29.0
24.1
29.6
25.0
Scott Rolen*
12.0
22.0
19.0
31.0
22.5
55.4
23.0
Johan Santana*
10.0
18.0
5.1
17.0
12.1
34.5
18.0
Curt Schilling
50.0
71.0
49.0
45.0
46.0
39.6
45.0
Gary Sheffield
13.0
44.0
10.2
14.0
12.3
12.5
16.0
Sammy Sosa
9.0
20.0
9.0
8.0
8.9
9.5
18.0
Jim Thome*
83.0
77.0
79.5
67.0
59.5
56.6
77.0
Omar Vizquel*
43.0
14.0
41.5
11.0
51.2
34.5
58.0
Billy Wagner
10.0
22.0
7.7
11.0
14.3
10.5
17.0
Larry Walker
25.0
33.0
23.3
24.0
23.5
15.5
29.0
Kerry Wood*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
3.4
0.0
Carlos Zambrano*
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.4
0.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Player
Rich Dunstan
ropalmer
sansho1
terrific
thoughtclaw
tigerlily
 
Barry Bonds
72.0
58.0
52.9
68.1
57.0
50.0
 
Chris Carpenter*
0.0
2.0
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.0
 
Roger Clemens
71.0
61.0
52.4
68.2
57.3
52.0
 
Johnny Damon*
2.0
4.0
4.5
2.2
3.1
1.0
 
Vladimir Guerrero
79.0
74.0
77.3
80.2
76.7
78.0
 
Livan Hernandez*
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Trevor Hoffman
77.0
75.0
78.5
75.9
81.0
76.0
 
Orlando Hudson*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Aubrey Huff*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Jason Isringhausen*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
 
Andruw Jones*
12.0
6.0
26.3
8.9
7.6
20.0
 
Chipper Jones*
95.0
80.0
92.4
92.8
84.2
82.0
 
Jeff Kent
15.0
22.0
16.7
19.2
21.9
13.0
 
Carlos Lee*
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.8
0.0
 
Brad Lidge*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Edgar Martinez
67.0
71.0
63.0
69.9
67.4
63.0
 
Hideki Matsui*
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
 
Fred McGriff
18.0
21.0
27.4
20.0
25.4
20.0
 
Kevin Millwood*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
 
Jamie Moyer*
2.0
2.0
7.0
1.4
6.3
1.0
 
Mike Mussina
60.0
63.0
60.0
60.0
63.2
65.0
 
Manny Ramirez
35.0
28.0
22.8
33.3
23.8
21.0
 
Scott Rolen*
25.0
29.0
42.0
19.1
14.3
8.0
 
Johan Santana*
1.0
10.0
19.0
5.2
0.6
15.0
 
Curt Schilling
47.0
61.0
39.8
38.5
44.3
45.0
 
Gary Sheffield
16.0
15.0
12.4
14.1
17.6
12.0
 
Sammy Sosa
15.0
16.0
7.1
8.8
8.3
6.0
 
Jim Thome*
75.0
68.0
81.0
79.6
77.1
50.0
 
Omar Vizquel*
25.0
55.0
31.0
33.2
52.6
20.0
 
Billy Wagner
20.0
13.0
9.9
6.2
12.7
9.0
 
Larry Walker
25.0
27.0
24.0
14.9
26.9
17.0
 
Kerry Wood*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 
Carlos Zambrano*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
 

  
 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
He's definitely wrong on Rolen (as definitely as we can ever say definitely).
He's probably wrong on Andruw.

Then again, he's probably not as wrong on either of those as 'some of us' will be on others. :-)
5:39 PM Dec 7th
 
DaveNJnews
I saw that Bill Deane predicted that neither Scott Rolen or Andruw Jones would get to 5 percent. I was baffled by that - and glad to see that it wasn't echoed by our predictions (though one person put Jones under 5).
4:08 PM Dec 6th
 
 
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