The 2019 "How Well Do You Know Your BBWAA" contest is now closed. 20 entries were submitted, which was lower than last year (26), although slightly higher than our 2017 version (18).
Here are some results gathered from the entries submitted:
Average, High, Low, Range (Distance between high and low), and Standard Deviation
(Sorted by the player’s average predicted vote %)
*-First time on the BBWAA ballot
|
Player
|
Average
|
High
|
Low
|
Range
|
Std Dev
|
|
Mariano Rivera*
|
95.8
|
99.0
|
88.0
|
11.0
|
3.3
|
|
Edgar Martinez
|
78.8
|
86.0
|
72.0
|
14.0
|
3.2
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
70.7
|
78.0
|
45.0
|
33.0
|
7.6
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
61.9
|
75.0
|
51.0
|
24.0
|
4.8
|
|
Barry Bonds
|
60.9
|
75.0
|
48.0
|
27.0
|
5.2
|
|
Roy Halladay*
|
60.7
|
83.0
|
15.0
|
68.0
|
17.1
|
|
Curt Schilling
|
55.5
|
65.0
|
40.0
|
25.0
|
5.6
|
|
Larry Walker
|
40.5
|
62.0
|
29.0
|
33.0
|
7.9
|
|
Omar Vizquel
|
39.6
|
55.0
|
15.0
|
40.0
|
9.2
|
|
Todd Helton*
|
33.3
|
62.0
|
15.0
|
47.0
|
13.2
|
|
Fred McGriff
|
26.4
|
35.0
|
19.0
|
16.0
|
4.5
|
|
Manny Ramirez
|
22.7
|
40.0
|
13.0
|
27.0
|
6.6
|
|
Scott Rolen
|
21.5
|
70.0
|
12.0
|
58.0
|
12.4
|
|
Andy Pettitte*
|
20.5
|
36.0
|
3.6
|
32.4
|
8.7
|
|
Jeff Kent
|
17.0
|
37.0
|
8.0
|
29.0
|
6.0
|
|
Gary Sheffield
|
14.4
|
27.0
|
10.0
|
17.0
|
4.9
|
|
Billy Wagner
|
13.7
|
46.0
|
5.0
|
41.0
|
8.2
|
|
Andruw Jones
|
12.2
|
50.0
|
-
|
50.0
|
10.3
|
|
Lance Berkman*
|
11.2
|
22.0
|
3.0
|
19.0
|
5.8
|
|
Sammy Sosa
|
10.0
|
31.0
|
6.0
|
25.0
|
5.5
|
|
Miguel Tejada*
|
6.1
|
20.0
|
1.0
|
19.0
|
5.3
|
|
Roy Oswalt*
|
5.4
|
25.0
|
1.0
|
24.0
|
5.8
|
|
Michael Young*
|
2.7
|
15.0
|
-
|
15.0
|
3.6
|
|
Derek Lowe*
|
0.9
|
8.0
|
-
|
8.0
|
2.0
|
|
Jason Bay*
|
0.7
|
10.0
|
-
|
10.0
|
2.3
|
|
Travis Hafner*
|
0.7
|
5.0
|
-
|
5.0
|
1.3
|
|
Juan Pierre*
|
0.5
|
3.0
|
-
|
3.0
|
0.9
|
|
Kevin Youkilis*
|
0.5
|
4.0
|
-
|
4.0
|
1.0
|
|
Freddy Garcia*
|
0.4
|
5.0
|
-
|
5.0
|
1.1
|
|
Placido Polanco*
|
0.3
|
3.0
|
-
|
3.0
|
0.8
|
|
Vernon Wells*
|
0.1
|
2.0
|
-
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
|
Rick Ankiel*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Jon Garland*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Ted Lilly*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Darren Oliver*
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Observations:
- If you go by the average prediction of our group, 2 players will be elected this year: Mariano Rivera in his first year, and Edgar Martinez in his 10th (and final) year.
- 100% of the entries predict Mariano Rivera will receive at least 75% of the vote. In fact, the lowest percentage he received was 88%.
- 19 of the 20 entries (95%) predict Edgar Martinez will receive at least 75% of the vote, with the other entry predicting he will just miss (72%).
- 8 of the 20 entries (40%) predict Mike Mussina will receive at least 75% of the vote, although those who are predicting he’ll get in think he’ll just barely get enough support (the highest prediction is for 78%)
- 5 of the 20 entries (25%) predict Roy Halladay will receive at least 75% of the vote.
- Roy Halladay had the greatest range of predictions, from a low of 15% to a high of 83%, and he also had the highest standard deviation (17.1). Another newcomer to the ballot, Todd Helton, also had a great deal of variation of predictions, ranging from a low of 15% to a high of 62%, with a standard deviation of 13.2.
- Out of the players who were predicted to receive more than just a token amount of votes, Mariano Rivera and Edgar Martinez had the smallest variation of predictions. Rivera’s predictions ranged from 88% to 99%, and Martinez ranged from 72% to 86%, with standard deviations of 3.3 and 3.2, respectively.
- 4 entries (including mine) predict that four players will be elected this year, 7 predict that three will be elected, 8 predict that two will be elected, and 1 entry predicts that just a single player will be elected. My entry predicts that Rivera, Martinez, Halladay, and Mussina will be elected this year. A little elaboration on those decisions:
- I think Rivera is an easy decision, and he should receive mid-to-upper 90% support. There are some who think he might be the first player to be elected unanimously by the writers, but I think there will be a few holdouts. The only voters who might not vote for him are those who refuse to vote for any first-timers and those who think that relievers don’t pitch enough innings to justify the praise heaped on them, but I think we’re talking a mere handful. From my perspective, Rivera is a no-brainer.
- Martinez didn’t miss by much last year (70%). With this being his 10th and final attempt on the ballot, I feel pretty confident he’ll make it with plenty of room to spare.
- Although I think he would have had a solid enough debut anyway, Halladay may also receive a "sympathy" boost due to his tragic death last year, and I think it will be enough to get him in on his first try.
- Mussina has built up some nice momentum (his first 5 years on the ballot has yielded, in order, results of 20.3%, 24.6%, 43.0%, 51.8%, and 63.5%), and I think he will be able to pick up enough additional converts to put him over this year, although I’m not completely confident of that. Of the four that I’m predicting to get in, he’s the one I’m least confident of. If he doesn’t make it this year, I think he’ll set himself up to go in next year.
- The BBWAA has been pretty busy the last 5 years, voting in 16 players over that span. In 2018, the BBWAA voting yielded a very high average of 8.5 players per ballot. In 2017, the figure was 8.1 players per ballot, and in 2016 it was 7.9. The trend has been generally pushing the figure higher over several years.
Our predictions, as a group, imply that voters will average voting for 7.9 players per ballot. So, our members are predicting that the recent trend of voting for more and more players on a ballot will reverse course a bit this year. I happen to agree (the figure implied by my entry is also for 7.9 players per ballot).
Although this year’s ballot continues to have several players with good Hall of Fame cases, and I do think we could potentially see up to 4 players elected this year, I am of the opinion that the ballot is slightly less crowded and just a little less deep than in prior years. It’s still a strong ballot with several worthy candidates, but a slight downturn in terms of the number of players per ballot may occur.
Results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote will be announced January 22, 2019, so we’ve got a fair amount of down time until that announcement. In the interim, I will be checking in on Ryan Thibodaux’s excellent "Hall of Fame tracker" and posting occasional articles with some observations about how the voting is tracking, as well as other potential topics along the way.
Thanks for reading,
Dan