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2021's Top Minor League Bat-Missers

March 27, 2022

A reminder that we track minor league data at the Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels and that includes the specificity of whether pitchers net a swinging strike or a called strike.


Among pitchers with at least 1,000 pitches tracked at those levels last season, the one with the highest miss rate (misses/swings taken) was Twins lefty reliever Jovani Moran, at 42%.


Moran, who will turn 25 in April, struck out 109 batters in 67 1/3 innings pitched and posted a 2.41 ERA as a multi-inning reliever at Double-A and Triple-A last season. His primary miss-pitch is a nasty changeup. FanGraphs ranks him as the team’s 36th-best prospect, though he did get an MLB look last season, striking out 10 in 8 innings pitched.


Among pitchers who met the 1,000-pitch qualifier AND were ranked in the Top 100 across all organizations on FanGraphs’ Board, the top miss-getter in the minors was Brewers swingman Aaron Ashby.


Ashby got misses on just over 38% of swings against him at Triple-A Nashville, where he struck out 100 batters in 63 1/3 innings. FanGraphs ranks Ashby as its No. 46 MLB prospect. He also pitched 31 2/3 MLB innings last season and induced a miss rate of 29%.


A highly-touted prospect we'll likely see in the minors at the start of the season is 22-year-old Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez is FanGraphs’ No. 3 prospect overall and its top-ranked pitching prospect.


Rodriguez had the 10th-highest miss rate among minor league pitchers last season at 37%. He also ranked 27th (among more than 500 qualifiers) in called strike rate (the percentage of pitches taken that were called strikes). As such, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was just shy of 6-to-1 in 103 innings. He had 161 strikeouts, a rate of better than 14 per 9 innings.


Like Moran, Rodriguez has a nasty changeup but he is able to pair it with a 99-MPH fastball and standout slider.


One other Top-100 pitching prospect rated in the Top 25 in both miss rate and called strike rate last season. Reid Detmers of the Angels had rates of right around 36% in each stat. Detmers, who FanGraphs ranked No. 42 among prospects, also nearly had a strikeout-to-walk rate of 6-to-1 in 62 minor league innings. In 5 MLB starts, he totaled 19 strikeouts and 11 walks in 20 2/3 innings pitched.


Notable Pitchers on Miss Rate Leaderboard

Stat of the Week chart March 10 2022-Mar-10-2022-08-34-04-17-PM


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