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A Galaxy of Royal Stars

By Bill James

September 25, 2020

A Galaxy of Royal Stars

Not that this is a serious topic or anything, but with Alex Gordon announcing his retirement there was discussion among friends of where he ranks among the Royals’ all-time greats, or perhaps they are merely goods. I made up a system for ranking the Royals, consistent with the principles of the many ranking systems I have created over the years, and since there was some interest in this, I thought I should explain how this was done.

First, we start with each player’s Win Shares in each season as a Royal. For Alex Gordon, this is as follows:

First	Last	Year	Age	Team	Win Shares
Alex	Gordon	2007	23	KCA	12
Alex	Gordon	2008	24	KCA	15
Alex	Gordon	2009	25	KCA	2
Alex	Gordon	2010	26	KCA	3
Alex	Gordon	2011	27	KCA	24
Alex	Gordon	2012	28	KCA	20
Alex	Gordon	2013	29	KCA	21
Alex	Gordon	2014	30	KCA	26
Alex	Gordon	2015	31	KCA	16
Alex	Gordon	2016	32	KCA	9
Alex	Gordon	2017	33	KCA	6
Alex	Gordon	2018	34	KCA	11
Alex	Gordon	2019	35	KC	13

Alex was quite a good player in the 2011 to 2014 era, totaling 178 Win Shares in his career. And let us contrast with Frank White, who wound up ranked just ahead of Gordon, and Dan Quisenberry, who wound up ranked just behind him:

First	Last	Year	Age	Team	Win Shares
Frank	White	1973	22	KCA	2
Frank	White	1974	23	KCA	3
Frank	White	1975	24	KCA	9
Frank	White	1976	25	KCA	9
Frank	White	1977	26	KCA	13
Frank	White	1978	27	KCA	16
Frank	White	1979	28	KCA	11
Frank	White	1980	29	KCA	13
Frank	White	1981	30	KCA	7
Frank	White	1982	31	KCA	18
Frank	White	1983	32	KCA	15
Frank	White	1984	33	KCA	18
Frank	White	1985	34	KCA	16
Frank	White	1986	35	KCA	20
Frank	White	1987	36	KCA	14
Frank	White	1988	37	KCA	9
Frank	White	1989	38	KCA	14
Frank	White	1990	39	KCA	4

White, at least as seen by this method, did not have seasons of equal impact to Gordon’s good years from 2011 to 2014. However, White had five more seasons in a Royal uniform, and his total Win Shares over his career are higher, adding up to 211.

Dan Quisenberry, on the other hand, had fewer seasons but bigger impact seasons:

First	Last	Year	Age	Team	Win Shares
Dan	Quisenberry	1979	26	KCA	4
Dan	Quisenberry	1980	27	KCA	19
Dan	Quisenberry	1981	28	KCA	10
Dan	Quisenberry	1982	29	KCA	22
Dan	Quisenberry	1983	30	KCA	28
Dan	Quisenberry	1984	31	KCA	24
Dan	Quisenberry	1985	32	KCA	23
Dan	Quisenberry	1986	33	KCA	10
Dan	Quisenberry	1987	34	KCA	7

Quisenberry’s seasons total up to 147 Win Shares. White, Gordon and Quisenberry thus rank in descending order by Total Win Shares, but in ascending order by high-impact seasons. (Quisenberry was also with the Royals in 1988, but had a 6.16 ERA, so that’s a zero-value season.)

It seems relatively obvious that two 10-Win Seasons should not be treated as equal to one 20-Win Season. High-impact seasons win pennants; 10-Win Seasons are kind of replaceable. How to adjust for this.

What I did is, I raised the value of each season to the power 1.5 (rounded down.) Dan Quisenberry’s 28-Win Share season in 1983, when he perhaps should have won the Cy Young Award, thus is given a value of 148 points, since 28 to the power 1.5, rounded down, is 148. Quiz’s 24-Win Share season the following year has an "impact value" of 117. Alex Gordon’s best season, 26 Win Shares in 2014, has an impact value of 132, and Frank White’s best season, 20 Win Shares in 1986, has an Impact Value of 89.

Basically, 30 Win Shares is a serious MVP candidate. People have won MVP Awards with less than that, but not often; generally, you become a serious candidate for the MVP Award at about 30 Win Shares. The highest-valued seasons in Royals history are George Brett in 1980 (37 Win Shares), George Brett in 1985 (36 Win Shares) and then three seasons of 33 Win Shares—George Brett in 1976, George Brett in 1979, and John Mayberry in 1975. Mayberry, you might remember, was second in the MVP voting in 1975.

Why 1.5? Why do we raise this to the power 1.5?

Because 1.0 isn’t enough, and 2.0 is too much. Just my judgment, you know. If you don’t raise it to any power at all, then three seasons as an average player is worth as much as an MVP, which is not right. If you Square the Win Shares—raise it to the power 2—then an MVP is worth as much as 9 average players, which doesn’t seem right, either. I tried 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5. . .all the way up to 2.0, and 1.5 seemed right. At 1.5, a 30-Win Share season is worth 41% more than two 15-Win Share seasons. That seems reasonable. Brett’s 37-Win Share season in 1980, by the way, has a value of 225 Impact Points.

OK, so I added up the Impact Points, but there is another wrinkle. Post season play. Gordon, Quisenberry, White and Brett all were regulars and serious contributors to World Championship teams. That counts for something.

Here is what it counts for, in my system. You have to have at least 10 Win Shares to qualify for credit for making the post-season. In 2015, when the Royals won the World Serious, eleven Royals qualified as Serious contributors to that team: Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Mike Moustakas, Wade Davis, Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Edinson Volquez, Chris Young and Yordano Ventura. Eleven is a little light; the number is usually 12 or 13.

Anyway, you have to credit that, because winning the World Series is a big deal. Here’s how I credited it. If you make post-season play in any form, each qualifying player gets a 10-point bonus. If you make the World Series but lose, each qualifying player gets a 25-point bonus. If you win the World Series, each qualifying contributor gets a 50-point bonus.

Then you add up the points for each season, and you find the career total. For Frank White, this is as follows:

First	Last	Year	Win Shares	Impact	Post Season Bonus	Running Total
Frank	White	1973	2	2	0	2
Frank	White	1974	3	5	0	7
Frank	White	1975	9	27	0	34
Frank	White	1976	9	27	0	61
Frank	White	1977	13	46	10	117
Frank	White	1978	16	64	10	191
Frank	White	1979	11	36	0	227
Frank	White	1980	13	46	25	298
Frank	White	1981	7	18	0	316
Frank	White	1982	18	76	0	392
Frank	White	1983	15	58	0	450
Frank	White	1984	18	76	10	536
Frank	White	1985	16	64	50	650
Frank	White	1986	20	89	0	739
Frank	White	1987	14	52	0	791
Frank	White	1988	9	27	0	818
Frank	White	1989	14	52	0	870
Frank	White	1990	4	8	0	878

Frank White has 878 Impact Points in our silly little competition, 5^th-most in Royals history. Alex Gordon has 802:

First	Last	Year	Win Shares	Impact	Post Season Bonus	Running Total
Alex	Gordon	2007	12	41	0	41
Alex	Gordon	2008	15	58	0	99
Alex	Gordon	2009	2	2	0	101
Alex	Gordon	2010	3	5	0	106
Alex	Gordon	2011	24	117	0	223
Alex	Gordon	2012	20	89	0	312
Alex	Gordon	2013	21	96	0	408
Alex	Gordon	2014	26	132	25	565
Alex	Gordon	2015	16	64	50	679
Alex	Gordon	2016	9	27	0	706
Alex	Gordon	2017	6	14	0	720
Alex	Gordon	2018	11	36	0	756
Alex	Gordon	2019	13	46	0	802

If Gordon had had one more season of the quality of any of his years 2011 to 2014, then he would rank ahead of White. Dan Quisenberry comes in 6^th, with 743 points. And here; I’ll give you the top 200

Rank	FirstName	LastName	Career
1	George	Brett	2269
2	Amos	Otis	1391
3	Willie	Wilson	1044
4	Hal	McRae	959
5	Frank	White	878
6	Alex	Gordon	802
7	Dan	Quisenberry	743
8	John	Mayberry	683
9	Bret	Saberhagen	628
10	Eric	Hosmer	617
11	Kevin	Appier	613
12	Dennis	Leonard	586
13	Mark	Gubicza	580
14	Mike	Sweeney	579
15	Salvador	Perez	566
16	Paul	Splittorff	520
17	Lorenzo	Cain	519
18	Carlos	Beltran	512
19	Freddie	Patek	502
20	Billy	Butler	501
21	Jeff	Montgomery	488
22	Danny	Tartabull	445
23	Darrell	Porter	444
24	Larry	Gura	438
25	Kevin	Seitzer	434
26	Alcides	Escobar	433
27	Charlie	Leibrandt	407
28	David	DeJesus	404
29	Al	Cowens	360
30	Johnny	Damon	355
31	Mike	Moustakas	334
32	Joe	Randa	327
33	Whit	Merrifield	317
34	Mike	Macfarlane	292
35	Zack	Greinke	286
36	Buddy	Black	284
36	Steve	Busby	284
38	Lou	Piniella	268
39	Willie	Aikens	267
40	Jose	Offerman	259
41	Joakim	Soria	258
42	Cookie	Rojas	255
42	Paul	Schaal	255
44	Wade	Davis	253
45	U. L.	Washington	249
46	Al	Fitzmorris	248
47	Greg	Holland	240
48	Tom	Gordon	237
49	Wally	Joyner	234
50	Mark	Teahen	224
51	Danny	Jackson	217
52	Steve	Balboni	215
52	Dick	Drago	215
54	Ed	Kirkpatrick	214
55	Doug	Bird	213
55	Danny	Duffy	213
57	Bo	Jackson	210
58	Kendrys	Morales	204
59	Brian	McRae	195
60	Kurt	Stillwell	194
61	David	Cone	185
62	Kelvin	Herrera	184
62	Yordano	Ventura	184
64	Jermaine	Dye	182
65	John	Wathan	181
66	Tim	Belcher	179
67	Jim	Eisenreich	174
68	Marty	Pattin	163
69	Steve	Farr	160
70	Clint	Hurdle	159
70	James	Shields	159
72	Jeff	Suppan	155
73	Angel	Berroa	150
74	Lonnie	Smith	148
75	Emil	Brown	144
76	Greg	Gagne	143
77	Jose	Rosado	141
78	Gary	Gaetti	128
79	Raul	Ibanez	126
79	Jarrod	Dyson	126
81	Rich	Gale	123
82	Alberto	Callaspo	120
83	Mark	Grudzielanek	118
84	Jim	Sundberg	117
85	John	Buck	115
86	Tom	Poquette	114
87	Jeff	King	112
88	Brent	Mayne	109
88	Pat	Sheridan	109
88	Gil	Meche	109
91	Hipolito	Pichardo	108
92	Edinson	Volquez	107
93	Roger	Nelson	106
94	Tony	Graffanino	105
94	Mark	Littell	105
96	Mike	Aviles	103
96	Jason	Vargas	103
98	Pat	Kelly	100
98	Bruce	Chen	100
100	Bob	Oliver	99
100	Rey	Sanchez	99
102	Jay	Bell	96
102	Ian	Kennedy	96
104	Darrell	May	95
104	Bill	Pecota	95
104	Nori	Aoki	95
107	Johnny	Cueto	91
108	Bob	Boone	90
108	Melky	Cabrera	90
108	Jorge	Soler	90
111	Matt	Stairs	88
112	Fran	Healy	86
112	Mike	Hedlund	86
112	Steve	Mingori	86
112	Chris	Young	86
116	Jose	Guillen	85
116	Michael	Tucker	85
118	Jeff	Francoeur	84
119	Paul	Byrd	82
120	Bruce	Dal Canton	81
121	Pete	LaCock	78
121	Jorge	Orta	78
123	Carlos	Febles	77
123	Wilson	Betemit	77
125	Ted	Abernathy	76
125	Richie	Scheinblum	76
127	Luis	Aquino	75
128	Luke	Hochevar	75
129	Jim	Colborn	74
130	Tom	Burgmeier	73
130	Kevin	McReynolds	73
132	Mitch	Maier	70
133	Wally	Bunker	69
133	Tom	Goodwin	69
133	Al	Hrabosky	69
133	Esteban	German	69
137	Jeremy	Guthrie	68
137	Brad	Keller	68
139	Keith	Lockhart	67
139	Don	Slaught	67
141	Darryl	Motley	66
141	Adalberto	Mondesi	66
143	Mark	Quinn	65
144	Yuniesky	Betancourt	65
144	Hunter	Dozier	65
146	Mike	Fiore	64
146	Joe	Foy	64
147	Paulo	Orlando	64
149	Chris	Haney	61
149	Jim	Wohlford	61
149	Jeremy	Affeldt	61
152	Bob	Hamelin	60
153	Rusty	Meacham	59
153	Keith	Miller	59
155	Chili	Davis	58
155	Felix	Jose	58
155	Scott	Podsednik	58
158	David	Howard	56
159	Jerry	Martin	54
159	Jim	Rooker	54
161	Brian	Bannister	53
161	Gregg	Jefferies	52
161	Bob	Johnson	52
161	Dean	Palmer	52
161	Ervin	Santana	52
166	Jason	Grimsley	51
166	Jamie	Quirk	51
168	Tony	Solaita	50
168	Mike	MacDougal	50
168	Jakob	Junis	50
171	Moe	Drabowsky	46
171	Gene	Garber	46
171	Aaron	Guiel	46
174	Mike	Armstrong	45
174	Roberto	Hernandez	45
174	Miguel	Olivo	45
177	Vince	Coleman	44
177	Aaron	Crow	44
179	Brian	Anderson	43
179	Onix	Concepcion	43
179	Buck	Martinez	43
179	Chris	Getz	43
183	Desi	Relaford	42
183	Pat	Tabler	42
183	Tony	Pena	42
186	Kirk	Gibson	41
186	Gail	Hopkins	41
186	Scott	Service	41
186	Mac	Suzuki	41
186	Ken	Harvey	41
191	Bill	Butler	40
191	Dan	Reichert	40
191	Jorge	Bonifacio	40
194	Jon	Nunnally	39
194	Cheslor	Cuthbert	39
196	Runelvys	Hernandez	38
197	Kyle	Davies	37
198	Vida	Blue	36
198	Bip	Roberts	36
198	Bob	Stinson	36
198	Blake	Stein	36
198	Jimmy	Gobble	36
198	Jon	Jay	36
198	Jonathan	Broxton	36
198	Mike	Minor	36

Not including 2020 performance. Thank you for reading.

COMMENTS (15 Comments, most recent shown first)

John-Q
David Cone, Zach Grienke, Tom Gordon, Danny Tartabull, Danny Jackson, Bret Saberhagen, Charlie Leibrandt, Greg Jefferies, Jeff Connie, Cecil Fielder, Ken Phelps, Atlee Hamaker, Rance Mullins, Jon Leiber, Jermaine Dye, Jose Bautista, all had success post Royals.

The Royals were very good at not making bad trades during the early part of the franchise 1969-85. And they made a lot of good-great trades during the 1970’s-80’s. They were also very good at resigning a lot of their players during the 70’s-80’s. So Brett never left for the Dodgers and McRae, Wilson, Otis, White stayed with the Royals for a long time.
10:42 AM Sep 27th

3for3
Danny Jackson had some very good seasons elsewhere as well.
10:24 AM Sep 27th

Robinsong
Missed Beltran
5:33 PM Sep 26th

Robinsong
It is interesting how few Royals had good years elsewhere. Of the top 100, only Damon, Piniella, Greinke, and Lonnie Smith did much for anybody else. Wonder how many teams are like that?
5:33 PM Sep 26th

wovenstrap
You buried the lede! Amos Otis at #2. I did not see that coming.
1:44 PM Sep 26th

jrickert
As a Brewers fan I noticed Lorenzo Cain and Darryl Porter in the top 25 (alas!). Then I took a closer look at the top 16. Three (Otis, McRae, and Mayberry) debuted before the Royals existed. The other 13 made their major league debut with the Royals. That seems like a rather high ratio. I wonder if any other team has all of their top 10 making their debut with the team (if possible). OF the other 1969 expansion teams Cecil Cooper keeps the Brewers from getting there. Pedro Martinez might mar the Expos-Nationals top ten. Ken Caminiti and Adrian Gonzalez probably stop the Padres having all 10 who debuted since 1969 starting with the Padres.
11:50 PM Sep 25th

Jaytaft
I love the adjustment to value impact! The "greatest ever" lists always include mediocre guys who played forever and leave out spectacular players who only played a few full seasons. Does anyone really think that Rick Monday was a better player than Bill Lange, Pete Reiser, or Grady Sizemore?
6:47 PM Sep 25th

shthar
1994! Slowly I turned....

But seriously, that was the last good year for the Royals, for soooooooo long.

Aftyer that, 20 years of sad with one season over .500

I just can't...

4:46 PM Sep 25th

MarisFan61
To me the most significant thing here is giving consideration for post-season. For the field of sabermetrics, this might even be mildly ground-breaking, since it is omitted from almost all major analysis.

I would be even more excited about it if it took some account of what the players actually did in the post-season, rather than just giving a standard kind of credit for being a major contributor toward making the post-season.
1:53 PM Sep 25th

bjames
PeteRidges
One thing I notice...

The mid-point in Royals history is about 1994. All the top 5 had left the Royals by then, and all five were regulars from 1978-1983.

Sure. But now do a count. How many times did the Royals make post-season play, 1969 to 1994, and how many times since then. How many times did they win 90 games in the first half, and how many times in the second half?

Despite the expansion of the playoffs to include more teams, the Royals obviously were in the post season many more times in the first half than in the second--so it is entirely appropriate that the first-half players would dominate the list.
12:32 PM Sep 25th

PeteRidges
One thing I notice...

The mid-point in Royals history is about 1994. All the top 5 had left the Royals by then, and all five were regulars from 1978-1983.

12:25 PM Sep 25th

evanecurb
A fun exercise, thanks! Lots of names in there that are fun to remember. And some I honestly don't recall hearing before.
11:19 AM Sep 25th

JohnPontoon
I did not realize that "to the 1.5 power" meant "times the number's square root." I would have assumed it meant "times half of the number." Thanks for the math-learnin'!
9:55 AM Sep 25th

Cap0088
This list looks reasonable to me.
8:15 AM Sep 25th

A Galaxy of Royal Stars

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