A quick peak at the American League pennant races.
AL EAST
|
W-L
|
GB
|
Yankees
|
34-24
|
--
|
Red Sox
|
34-24
|
--
|
Blue Jays
|
33-27
|
2.5
|
Rays
|
29-30
|
6
|
Orioles
|
24-33
|
10
|
That didn’t last long.
For about thirty games the AL East looked interesting: the Blue Jays were playing terrific baseball, and the Yankees were mired in fourth place, sandwiched between the Rays and Orioles. Now it seems we’re back to business as usual: the Yankees and Red Sox are in first, and Toronto, Tampa, and Baltimore are battling over who will finish third.
It’s fascinating, frankly, that the Yankees are in first. The team has been beset by numerous problems, from the poor pitching of Wang, Burnett, and Hughes, to the injury to Nady, to all the noise about Alex Rodriguez. Yet they remain in first place.
We keep hearing reasons why the Yankees system won’t work, how sooner or later the madcap spending will catch up to them, and how their organization’s failure to patiently develop young talent will cripple them.
It hasn’t happened yet, and one has to start wondering if we’ve all just been blowing a lot of hot air. It is becoming increasing difficult to imagine any scenario where the Yankees can’t field a strong, competitive team.
Okay…enough about that: objectively the Yankees have been the fourth best team in the AL East:
|
Runs Scored
|
Runs Allowed
|
Difference
|
Boston
|
307
|
257
|
+57
|
Tampa Bay
|
330
|
284
|
+46
|
Toronto
|
312
|
271
|
+41
|
New York
|
326
|
300
|
+26
|
Baltimore
|
263
|
321
|
-58
|
Tampa Bay has gotten trounced in close games this year, posting a 6-13 record in games decided by one run, the worst record in the majors. Yet they’ve played near the level of Boston in the early goings, out-scoring their opponents by 46 runs.
Boston, despite the concerns over David Ortiz, the injury to Jed Lowrie, and a bad stretch by Matsuzaka, have managed to play good baseball over the early season. Of note: they haven’t lost against the Yankees.
This is such a terrifically hard division: only the Dodgers have outscored their opponents by more runs than Boston, Tampa Bay, and Toronto. It is not a stretch to say that four of the six best teams in baseball right now reside in the American League East.
For that reason, it’s a hard race to predict: if you’re a Yankee fan, you have to be impressed that the team has won games through all of the madness of the early season. If you’re not a Yankee fan, the failures of Wang and Burnett and the silly decision to move Hughes into the bullpen are red flags for the team. And the Yankees have gotten lucky: they have something like twenty comeback wins this year, and six walk-off victories. There are reasons to be nervous.
For Boston, there are obvious concerns, starting with Dice-K and Ortiz. But the return of Smoltz, the pitching of Beckett, Lester, and Penny, and the brilliant bullpen are all huge positives.
For Toronto, they’ve managed to win despite terrible starts by Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. And Tampa Bay just called up David Price. Both teams have been playing on-par with the Red Sox and Yankees: it’s just their records don’t show that reality.
AL CENTRAL
|
W-L
|
GB
|
Tigers
|
31-26
|
--
|
Twins
|
28-31
|
4
|
White Sox
|
27-32
|
4.5
|
Royals
|
24-32
|
6.5
|
Indians
|
25-34
|
7
|
The Tigers, the only winning team in the AL West right now, are playing about as good as they can. Miguel Cabrera has been terrific, even by his standards, and Brandon Inge has been a bizarre surprise through the first 60-odd games of the season. Justin Verlander has been otherworldly, striking out 11.3 batters per nine innings, and Edwin Jackson (2.16 ERA) has been an early surprise.
I think we’re seeing the Tigers at their very best, and it would be difficult for them to maintain their current high level of play. Sooner or later the Tigers will hit a rough stretch, and then the wolves will be at the door. Even Cleveland, probably the most disappointing team in the majors right now, is one hot streak away from being back in the race.
The Twins are the polar opposites of the Tigers. With some exceptions (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer) the Twins are playing as poorly as anyone could have expected. Nick Blackburn leads the rotation with a 3.30 mark, better than Francisco Liriano (6.12), Scott Baker (5.88), or Kevin Slowey (4.21). The team’s double-play combo of Casilla and Punto are hitting .180 and .187 respectively, and two of the young outfielders (Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez) have been unproductive at the plate.
Minnesota has endured an awful beginning to the year. They lost Joe Mauer for the first month of the season. Their two best pitchers, Liriano and Baker, have been lousy. And their young players have, by-and-large, failed to do anything noteworthy. Yet they’re in second place. By season’s end they’ll be in first.
The best players on the White Sox are the old guys: Thome, Dye, and Konerko. That isn’t a good sign. Carlos Quentin, who is young, has been on the DL for the last two weeks, and is having a disappointing season. Alexei Ramirez, the all-purpose runner-up for the ROY last year, has posted a .662 OPS on the early year, though he’s at least learning how to steal bases without getting caught.
The same holds true for the rotations: Buehrle and Colon have been better than Floyd and Danks; Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink (both 32 years old) have been better than closer Bobby Jenks (28).
A team whose best players are all older than thirty is a team that I wouldn’t be optimistic about.
I think just about every baseball fan I know roots for the Royals in some way or another. I certainly do. Zack Greinke makes it easier. I hope the Royals make a charge, but it’s looking unlikely.
Cleveland is nearing the ‘mad-scientist’ stage of the season, where they can basically try whatever they want, and see what works. They have one hundred games to experiment with. Let Carmona make starts? Sure. Why not? See if Hafner can come back? It can’t hurt. Heck, why not tell Kerry Wood to rest up his arm for next year, and give some young players a shot at closing for the rest of the year. And tell Shin-Soo Choo and Ben Francisco steal as often as they want.
It’s interesting that most teams don’t do anything of any particular interest when the team reaches that point of no return.
AL WEST
|
W-L
|
GB
|
Rangers
|
33-24
|
--
|
Angels
|
28-27
|
4
|
Mariners
|
28-29
|
5
|
A's
|
26-30
|
6.5
|
The Rangers pitching has been average this year, which for Texas is nothing short of astonishing. The team ERA (4.69) is hovering near the league mark (4.59).
I wouldn’t expect it to last. Last year the Rangers had an ERA of 5.37, more than a run higher than the league average (4.36). When the weather turns hot in Texas, the rotation will suffer.
The Angels finally have their rotation back together, with Lackey, Santana, and Escobar all coming off the DL. Still, the offensive declines of Bobby Abreau (2 homeruns) and Vlad Guerrero is of some concern: If Torii Hunter is your best hitter, you should be worried.
It’s hard to see what’s worse about the Griffey Farewell Tour: that the Kid is hitting just .219, or that he’s second on the team in homeruns (6). Nice to have Eric Beddard back.
There has been a lot of talk about the A’s shopping Matt Holliday around, and he has expressed some interest in going to a contender. The A’s current seven-game winning streak has them within striking distance, and that talk has been put on the back burner.
It’s hard to imagine a Billy Beane team being last in the league in OPS, but that’s where the A’s fall right now: the team’s .673 mark is the worst in the majors.
Six-and-a-half games is a big gap, but that gap is significant only if you believe the Rangers are the team to beat. I don’t think they are. The Oakland A’s are only two-and-a-half games behind the Angels, which is nothing right now.
I’ll still take Oakland to win the West.
(Dave Fleming is a writer living in Iowa City. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.)