This is a very lightweight article here. . .three bits of nonsense that I happened to like.

 

 

 

Strike One

 

            You may remember (or not) that a couple of years ago, I went looking for a formula that would predict RBI based on a players’ other hitting stats, and I found a really good one.    It’s Total Bases divided by four, plus Home Runs.   That’s all you have to do; divide a player’s Total Bases by four, add his Home Runs; that’s about how many runs he will drive in.

            Reviewing the 2010 season for this data. . .the following hitters matched or almost matched their expected RBI:

 

 

 

 

 

            Of the 427 major league hitters who drove in ten or more runs in 2010, 166 came within three RBI of matching their expectation.  On the other hand, the following players drove in significantly more runs than expected:

 

 

 

 

            While the following wazarongs drove in less:

 

 

 

            Research has shown that, when a player drives in more runs than expected, this is on average about 50% because he had a higher-than-expected number of RBI opportunities, and about 50% because he hit well with runners on base and with runners in scoring position.  Alex Emmanuel Rodriguez, for example, had a .774 OPS with the bases empty, but .924 with men on base.   This creates more than an expected number of RBI, and his number of chances was also a little high.   Delmon Young hit .355 with runners in scoring position, and was also fourth in the league in at bats with runners in scoring position.

 

 

Strike Two

 

            OK, this is just a silly thing, so don’t expect too much.   Did you ever wonder, like, what was the Milwaukee Brewers’ record in their 32 best starts of the season?    It was 27-5, but the starting pitchers in those games were 24-1 with a 1.09 ERA.   22 of the 30 teams had ERAs under 1.00 in their starting pitchers’ 32 best starts.

            I like doing this stuff because it creates records that sort of look like real pitchers’ records, but wander outside the normal parameters in key areas.   I sorted the games started by each team into five groups of games:

 

            Group A           The 32 best starts of the season, by Game Scores

            Group B           The next 33 starts

            Group C           The middle group

            Group D           The 33 "bad but not worst" starts

            Group F           The 32 worst starts of the season by the team

 

            Ties were broken by chronology. . .that is, if a team had six games that scored at "60" and half of them had to go in one group and half in the other, the first three chronologically went in the higher group.

There is no study so frivolous that you can’t accidentally learn something from it, and there are a number of sparks that jump off the page at us here.    You might guess that there would be more difference in the ability to win in the mid-range starts than in the outstanding starts or the terrible starts, and this is true.   The standard deviation of team wins was just 2.23 in the "A" games and 2.41 in the "F" games, but 3.50, 3.97 and 3.46 in the mid-range groups.

            A perhaps more intriguing observation is that offense shows the same pattern.   Teams scored an average of 4.25 runs per game in the "A" quality starts, 4.37 in the "B" games, 4.61 in the "C", 4.34 in the "D", and 4.36 in the "F" games. . .in other words, teams score more runs, rationally, when those runs are more needed and more meaningful.

            Some of this.  .perhaps all of it, I don’t know. . .is explained by extra-inning games and by batting in the bottom of the ninth.   When your starting pitchers have an ERA of 0.70, there are a lot of games in which you don’t bat in the bottom of the ninth.   I will start with the champions:

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Giants	A	32	246.3	24	4	.857	115	18	15	243	50	0.55
Giants	B	33	227.0	23	3	.885	154	51	50	212	74	1.98
Giants	C	32	200.7	11	7	.611	179	70	64	171	76	2.87
Giants	D	33	182.7	3	18	.143	205	109	101	146	84	4.98
Giants	F	32	143.3	0	23	.000	223	170	163	116	93	10.23

 

            The Giants were 53-12 in their 65 best starts, second-best in baseball behind the Rays (54-11), and here’s a huge divider:  the Giants were 27-6 in their "B" starts.   The Dodgers were 16-17.    The teams were separated in the standings by 12 games—11 of which were those "good but not great" starts. 

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Padres	A	32	216.0	27	1	.964	110	12	12	206	60	0.50
Padres	B	33	210.3	18	6	.750	143	42	38	169	68	1.63
Padres	C	32	191.7	11	10	.524	172	69	66	130	81	3.10
Padres	D	33	181.0	5	18	.217	219	110	103	134	72	5.12
Padres	F	32	145.7	5	21	.192	246	177	172	112	72	10.63

 

            The Padres’ starting pitchers pitched only 216 innings even in their "A" games, reflecting not only the quality of their bullpen but Bud Black’s commitment to get to his bullpen, even when his starting pitcher was pitching well.

            OK, here’s one of the things that I learned by doing this that is actually worth knowing.   The Padres in 2010 had the fewest innings by their starting pitchers and the most innings in their bullpen of any team in their division.   In part this was because they had a tremendous bullpen, but one suspects that, in part, it was also because they were banking on saving their starting pitching for the stretch drive. . .trying to keep their starting pitching strong.   This, obviously, didn’t work out.   The team that got hot down the stretch—and the team whose starting pitching was hot down the stretch—wasn’t the team whose starters had thrown the fewest innings, but the team whose starters had thrown the most innings, the Giants.  Just noted for the record.

            In their 32 best games, the Padres starters were perhaps the best in baseball.   They allowed only 12 runs in those 32 games, the fewest in baseball.   The Mets had an ERA .01 lower—(0.49 vs. 0.50), but the Mets starters gave up 19 more hits, had 15 fewer strikeouts, gave up 3 un-earned runs (vs. none for the Padres), and the Padre starting pitchers in those games were 27-1, the best in the NL. 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Rockies	A	32	236.7	24	5	.828	122	18	18	208	80	0.68
Rockies	B	33	221.0	13	7	.650	188	70	63	186	53	2.57
Rockies	C	32	192.3	17	4	.810	183	92	85	156	77	3.98
Rockies	D	33	181.7	4	17	.190	226	132	115	152	78	5.70
Rockies	F	32	123.3	0	19	.000	220	172	166	77	75	12.11

 

 

            You might guess that all of the Rockies best games would be on the road, and their worst games at home, but actually you would be wrong.   Of their 32 best games, 15 were at home, 17 on the road; of their 32 worst games, 15 were at home, 17 on the road.

            The Rockies’ 17-4 starter record in the mid-range contests was the second-best in baseball (behind the Twins), and of course that’s the record that really counts, because everybody wins when their starters are great and everybody loses when their starters are bad.   Their team actually was 21-11 in those games, which is still good but was third in the National League.

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Dodgers	A	32	243.7	23	1	.958	118	23	19	220	45	0.70
Dodgers	B	33	220.0	13	13	.500	151	49	46	216	54	1.88
Dodgers	C	32	192.7	10	8	.556	175	78	71	187	70	3.32
Dodgers	D	33	179.3	9	18	.333	207	126	114	140	80	5.72
Dodgers	F	32	117.0	0	24	.000	226	186	172	78	78	13.23

 

            The Dodgers outscored their opponents in the "B" games, 114 to 86, but lost 17 of the 33 games.   That’s really what ruined their season; they were 20-12 in the mid-range contests.

            Dodger starting pitchers struck out 220 batters in "A" games, which was only 8^th-highest in the majors, but also struck out 216 in the "B" games and 187 in the "C" starts, leading the majors in both categories.  

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Diamondbacks	A	32	242.3	20	1	.952	123	29	28	205	63	1.04
Diamondbacks	B	33	221.3	14	8	.636	189	74	69	166	54	2.81
Diamondbacks	C	32	196.7	9	12	.429	211	89	81	137	57	3.71
Diamondbacks	D	33	186.7	5	19	.208	231	135	123	137	89	5.93
Diamondbacks	F	32	146.0	1	25	.038	264	202	184	94	61	11.34

 

            I ought to figure the performance of OPPOSING starting pitchers in the 32 best games against the D’Backs.   I’ll bet there were 400 strikeouts. . ..

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Reds	A	32	234.7	23	2	.920	127	26	24	179	41	0.92
Reds	B	33	216.7	18	6	.750	159	57	49	149	64	2.04
Reds	C	32	191.0	10	5	.667	196	72	70	158	66	3.30
Reds	D	33	191.3	6	14	.300	230	135	122	133	61	5.74
Reds	F	32	131.3	0	17	.000	238	173	169	86	89	11.58

 

 

Here’s a really stunning contrast between the two Ohio teams.  In their 32 worst starts, Reds starting pitchers pitched only 131.3 innings, walked 89 batters, gave up 238 hits and posted an 11.38 ERA.    That’s middle-of-the-pack performance for that group.   The Indians were a little better; in their 32 worst starts their starters pitched 146 innings, walked only 74, had an 11.10 ERA—yet the Reds were able to win eleven of those games, most in the majors, whereas the Indians were unable to win any of them (0-32).   Every other team won at least two games in which their starting pitcher was battered.  

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Cardinals	A	32	248.0	25	1	.962	127	18	14	204	50	0.51
Cardinals	B	33	219.0	22	4	.846	180	44	43	183	50	1.77
Cardinals	C	32	192.3	14	9	.609	185	73	62	141	59	2.90
Cardinals	D	33	191.3	5	19	.208	231	119	107	132	83	5.03
Cardinals	F	32	140.3	2	23	.080	254	186	159	88	66	10.20

 

            More than half of high-quality starts, of course, occur in home games—but no team other than the Cardinals had more than 21 of their 32 best starts in home games.   The Cardinals had 25 of the 32. 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Brewers	A	32	222.3	24	1	.960	129	28	27	192	60	1.09
Brewers	B	33	196.0	12	6	.667	165	59	50	176	74	2.30
Brewers	C	32	192.0	10	10	.500	198	95	84	133	73	3.94
Brewers	D	33	172.0	5	15	.250	206	135	127	154	87	6.65
Brewers	F	32	138.7	1	24	.040	269	208	188	99	76	12.20

 

            Innings Pitched by starting pitchers in the "B" starts range from 231.3 by the Phillies (Halladay) down to 196 by the Brewers—despite the fact that Ken Macha is not generally quick to get to the bullpen.   The Brewers were just 13-19 in their "C" group starts, when their starting pitchers posted a 3.94 ERA.   This hurt them a great deal.   They were six games worse than the Cubs in those games.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Cubs	A	32	231.0	20	4	.833	117	29	26	217	56	1.01
Cubs	B	33	215.3	15	5	.750	173	49	41	190	68	1.71
Cubs	C	32	202.0	15	11	.577	181	75	68	143	73	3.03
Cubs	D	33	184.0	9	13	.409	226	119	110	129	88	5.38
Cubs	F	32	128.0	1	27	.036	243	200	182	99	85	12.80

 

            In the "F" quality starts the Cub bullpen allowed 126 runs—27 more than any other major league team.

            The two Chicago teams have something in common.   Most "F" quality starts, of course, are in road games. . .not quite 60%.   But both Chicago teams had 20 of their 32 worst starts of the season in Chicago, tying for the most in the majors. 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Pirates	A	32	216.3	17	5	.773	136	33	29	157	46	1.21
Pirates	B	33	203.0	11	10	.524	192	74	60	120	58	2.66
Pirates	C	32	174.3	5	14	.263	214	99	92	107	68	4.75
Pirates	D	33	170.3	1	26	.037	241	147	143	89	59	7.56
Pirates	F	32	107.7	0	29	.000	253	215	187	67	64	15.63

 

            Every major league team got 20 wins in their "A" starts except the Royals and the Pirates.  The Pirates actually scored 128 runs in these games—four runs per game, a reasonable number.   Ten teams scored fewer runs in their "A" starts.   The bullpen was a problem; the Pirates allowed 36 bullpen runs in these games.  Pirate pitchers struck out only 157 batters in their "A" starts, lowest total in the majors, and pitched only 216.1 innings, second-lowest total, leaving a lot of cleanup work to be done by the bullpens. 

            In their worst games, Pirate starters were 0-29 with a 15.63 ERA, by far the worst in the majors.    Second-worst was the Nationals, at 14.10.

            Probably more damaging. . .the Pie Rates were 3-29 in "F" quality starts, which is bad but certainly not the worst in the majors.  But they were 4-29 in their "D" quality starts, which was three games worse than any other major league team.  

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Phillies	A	32	255.0	23	4	.852	123	17	15	230	36	0.53
Phillies	B	33	231.3	19	5	.792	184	43	38	188	49	1.48
Phillies	C	32	208.0	16	4	.800	198	80	72	149	48	3.12
Phillies	D	33	194.3	10	14	.417	237	126	116	158	49	5.37
Phillies	F	32	146.7	2	21	.087	251	176	167	77	57	10.25

 

            The Phillies were 23-9 in their "C" quality starts, best in the National League. 

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Braves	A	32	232.3	23	1	.958	131	23	20	189	55	0.77
Braves	B	33	213.0	13	6	.684	163	58	51	153	54	2.15
Braves	C	32	193.0	14	10	.583	191	76	72	143	67	3.36
Braves	D	33	184.7	8	11	.421	218	109	100	134	58	4.87
Braves	F	32	142.0	1	24	.040	237	173	164	92	64	10.39

 

            If I get time I’ll go back and do this for the Braves in their glory years.   I’ll bet they had years when their ERA in their "C" games was 2.40.  

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Marlins	A	32	236.3	23	1	.958	129	24	22	225	38	0.84
Marlins	B	33	210.3	24	3	.889	168	52	45	185	64	1.93
Marlins	C	32	191.3	10	11	.476	206	86	72	122	54	3.39
Marlins	D	33	172.3	4	16	.200	224	126	117	115	79	6.11
Marlins	F	32	127.7	2	26	.071	245	182	175	84	73	12.34

 

            The Marlins actually beat the Phillies in their "A" and "B" quality starts (52-13 vs. 51-14), but were far behind them in all of the other groups.   You can see that the Phillies’ "D" range games were much better-pitched than the Marlins’ were.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Mets	A	32	240.3	21	1	.955	129	15	13	191	55	0.49
Mets	B	33	221.7	15	5	.750	179	40	35	164	62	1.42
Mets	C	32	191.7	13	8	.619	191	70	67	123	69	3.15
Mets	D	33	187.0	4	17	.190	234	135	118	121	74	5.68
Mets	F	32	131.3	0	25	.000	258	190	177	82	70	12.13

 

            The Mets had the best ERA of any major league team in the Group A games (0.49) and in the Group B games (1.42).  They were just 24-8 in the Group A games, however, because their offense scored only 103 runs in those games, and the Mets’ back-of-the-line pitching was ordinary.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Rangers	A	32	238.0	22	3	.880	123	24	22	226	54	0.83
Rangers	B	33	212.0	19	2	.905	164	60	53	132	65	2.25
Rangers	C	32	183.3	11	9	.550	185	94	82	160	70	4.03
Rangers	D	33	181.3	5	20	.200	218	134	125	130	76	6.20
Rangers	F	32	137.0	1	19	.050	228	176	165	109	83	10.84

 

            The Rangers, with their strong offense, won nine games in which the starting pitcher was pounded, second-most in baseball behind the Reds.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Athletics	A	32	235.3	26	1	.963	115	17	13	174	56	0.50
Athletics	B	33	217.0	19	5	.792	155	45	40	166	68	1.66
Athletics	C	32	201.3	13	9	.591	167	72	64	131	70	2.86
Athletics	D	33	195.7	6	16	.273	217	116	104	116	63	4.78
Athletics	F	32	142.7	0	27	.000	250	173	162	88	70	10.22

 

            The A’s front-line outings were among the best in baseball, and they were 29-3 in those games—tied with the Twins for the second-best in baseball.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Angels	A	32	249.3	20	3	.870	133	28	23	215	50	0.83
Angels	B	33	225.0	18	4	.818	169	52	45	185	63	1.80
Angels	C	32	197.7	18	8	.692	185	77	74	151	69	3.37
Angels	D	33	189.0	5	20	.200	236	124	118	123	76	5.62
Angels	F	32	152.3	1	28	.034	275	208	196	88	74	11.58

 

            I should have been able to find something to say about the Angels.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Mariners	A	32	256.7	22	2	.917	141	26	22	244	43	0.77
Mariners	B	33	228.7	15	7	.682	188	56	50	143	55	1.97
Mariners	C	32	204.0	5	17	.227	192	91	75	107	64	3.31
Mariners	D	33	186.7	3	19	.136	222	123	113	97	60	5.45
Mariners	F	32	142.7	1	27	.036	255	187	174	76	56	10.98

 

Seattle pitchers pitched 256.2 innings in their 32 best starts, the most of any major league team, perhaps because of Felix, perhaps because of managerial philosophy.    I didn’t check this for any other team or pitcher, but of Seattle’s 32 best starts, 16 were by Hernandez, 8 were by Cliff Lee, 4 by Jason Vargas, 2 by Fister, 2 by French.

Mariner pitchers recorded 244 strikeouts in those 32 games, again the most of any major league team.   But the Mariners were 17-80 in their 97 weakest starts.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Twins	A	32	246.7	25	2	.926	135	18	18	218	35	0.66
Twins	B	33	226.0	20	5	.800	176	62	60	150	45	2.39
Twins	C	32	207.0	19	3	.864	230	85	77	130	51	3.35
Twins	D	33	183.0	8	18	.308	239	128	127	129	57	6.25
Twins	F	32	133.0	1	22	.043	275	186	179	79	45	12.11

 

            The big separator in teams, as we mentioned, is the "Group C" games, the mid-range games.   The Twins were the best team in the majors in those games, going 25-7.   A big difference here, of course, is "How many good starts does the team have?"   The Twins are going to do better in these games than the Pirates because, in the mid-range games, Twins pitchers pitched 207 innings with a 3.35 ERA, whereas Pirate pitchers pitched 174.3 innings with a 4.75 ERA.   Another big factor, though, was that Twins relievers in these games allowed only 29 runs, whereas several teams allowed 60 or more in those games.   The Twins’ 19-3 starting pitcher record in their "mid-range" contests is very, very impressive.

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
White Sox	A	32	243.3	24	2	.923	127	27	26	207	51	0.96
White Sox	B	33	227.3	20	4	.833	190	61	55	163	61	2.18
White Sox	C	32	193.3	15	7	.682	189	82	77	107	53	3.58
White Sox	D	33	194.3	3	18	.143	262	134	123	130	63	5.70
White Sox	F	32	146.3	2	23	.080	277	196	194	98	76	11.93

 

            There is a really interesting contrast between the White Sox and the Yankees.   The White Sox were 27-5 in the "A" games by their starting pitchers; the Yankees were 25-7.   The White Sox were 24-9 in the "B" games, 21-11 in the "C" games; the Yankees were 27-6 and 21-11.  The White Sox actually beat the Yankees in the worst games by starting pitchers, the "F" efforts; the White Sox won 7 of those, the Yankees only 5.   Adding together groups A, B, C and F, the White Sox were 79-50, whereas the Yankees were 78-51.

            The entire difference between the two teams was in the "D" starts, the games in which the starting pitcher was bad but not horrific.    The Yankees scored 199 runs in that group of 33 games, gave up only 46 bullpen runs, and actually managed to win 17 of the 33 games (17-16).  The White Sox scored only 135 runs, gave up 56 bullpen runs, and finished 9-24 in the Group D performances. 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Tigers	A	32	242.7	26	1	.963	125	31	28	232	42	1.04
Tigers	B	33	222.0	13	10	.565	160	68	65	180	70	2.64
Tigers	C	32	198.0	10	10	.500	219	92	85	139	68	3.86
Tigers	D	33	174.7	3	15	.167	231	134	118	107	85	6.08
Tigers	F	32	138.3	1	23	.042	251	194	188	70	73	12.23

 

            The Tigers, like the Dodgers, were 16-17 in the "B" games, which doomed their season.   Those are winnable games; you have to win them.    Even the Indians were 23-10 in those games.  

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Indians	A	32	238.7	22	3	.880	144	41	35	158	54	1.32
Indians	B	33	199.0	15	5	.750	175	66	59	143	61	2.67
Indians	C	32	190.7	10	14	.417	197	95	83	116	89	3.92
Indians	D	33	174.3	4	21	.160	238	132	121	104	84	6.25
Indians	F	32	146.0	0	28	.000	266	193	180	64	74	11.10

 

            The "C" range records look just like the records of real pitchers—10-14, 3.92 ERA.   The "B" range games look like the records of Cy Young candidates, while the "C" range games look like guys who would start for four months for the worst teams in the league and then be dropped from the rotation.   The "A" and "F" groups are just out of range, and don’t look like any real seasons.

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Royals	A	32	229.0	17	3	.850	129	37	34	182	46	1.34
Royals	B	33	212.0	12	9	.571	175	75	69	131	85	2.93
Royals	C	32	191.7	11	11	.500	215	114	98	127	67	4.60
Royals	D	33	177.7	6	19	.240	245	151	148	126	76	7.50
Royals	F	32	129.7	0	26	.000	269	203	199	88	74	13.81

 

            Every major league team got 20 wins in their "A" starts except the Royals and the Pirates; the Royals were 17-3, the Pirates 17-5.   As the Mets had the best ERA of any major league team in the Group A games and in the Group B games, the Royals had the worst—a 1.34 ERA in the A games, 2.93 in the B games.

 

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Rays	A	32	243.7	24	4	.857	130	30	24	217	55	0.89
Rays	B	33	226.7	20	4	.833	164	60	55	168	67	2.18
Rays	C	32	195.3	12	8	.600	183	83	78	181	61	3.59
Rays	D	33	186.3	14	12	.538	230	105	99	129	73	4.78
Rays	F	32	147.7	3	22	.120	257	191	187	102	72	11.40

 

            19-14 record in their "D" quality starts was a huge asset for them.    They really just did not have a lot of badly pitched games.

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Yankees	A	32	235.0	25	2	.926	118	25	21	217	63	0.80
Yankees	B	33	218.3	24	3	.889	162	54	51	163	62	2.10
Yankees	C	32	197.0	17	7	.708	194	89	82	151	78	3.75
Yankees	D	33	180.0	5	12	.294	219	136	129	128	71	6.45
Yankees	F	32	142.7	1	26	.037	256	196	187	94	78	11.80

 

            Yankees were 90-40 in the top four groups, including 17-16 in Group D.   The starters were 5-12 in Group D games, but their bullpen was 12-4.

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Red Sox	A	32	242.0	28	0	1.000	116	25	18	204	63	0.67
Red Sox	B	33	224.0	19	5	.792	159	58	51	202	69	2.05
Red Sox	C	32	204.7	9	10	.474	196	91	77	167	70	3.39
Red Sox	D	33	189.7	12	14	.462	241	138	124	145	79	5.88
Red Sox	F	32	151.0	2	21	.087	268	205	199	115	102	11.86

 

            The Red Sox took care of business when the starting pitcher was "on" better than any other major league team.    In their 32 best starts, Red Sox starters were 28-0.  They were the only team to have 28 starter wins in those games, and the only team whose starters did not take a loss in their "A" quality games.    The Red Sox team record in those games, 30-2, was the best in the baseball.

            Better yet, only 13 of those 32 games were home games, and the Red Sox scored "only" 150 runs in those 32 games, well below their normal offensive output (162 runs per 32 games.)  But we gave it back with very unimpressive performance in the mid-range starts.

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Blue Jays	A	32	243.7	25	1	.962	113	29	25	204	49	0.92
Blue Jays	B	33	214.7	17	5	.773	168	52	49	188	76	2.05
Blue Jays	C	32	193.7	14	7	.667	192	82	76	160	66	3.53
Blue Jays	D	33	183.3	6	15	.286	232	129	118	143	82	5.79
Blue Jays	F	32	123.3	1	23	.042	240	200	190	88	72	13.86

 

 

Team	Group	GS	IP	W	L	WPct	H	R	ER	SO	BB	ERA
Orioles	A	32	238.0	21	5	.808	128	30	25	159	57	0.95
Orioles	B	33	212.0	13	6	.684	175	63	60	145	63	2.55
Orioles	C	32	190.7	4	14	.222	205	97	91	116	59	4.30
Orioles	D	33	182.0	4	23	.148	230	148	138	102	83	6.82
Orioles	F	32	125.0	0	24	.000	247	189	178	70	76	12.82

 

            In their 32 best games the Oriole starters were 21-5 with an 0.95 ERA, which sounds good although it really is just OK.   But Oriole relievers in those 32 games gave up 43 runs, the most of any team (in the "A" starts), which, with the 30 given up by the starters, makes a total of 73; their run advantage in those 32 games was just 119-73, the weakest ratio (in those games) of any major league team.

 

 

Strike Three

 

            Spinning off of Jayson Werth, there has been a thread in the "Hey, Bill" section about players who had very "late" careers. . .players who were late getting a shot, but had good careers anyway.   In regard to this, here is a chronological chart of players who had (or are having) late careers, defined as "two-thirds of their career games played or more after the age of 30."    I note that the player we have been using to define the group, Brian Downing, actually doesn’t qualify for the list; he’s at 63%.

            The categories of this chart are:

 

            Age—the year in which the player was 30 years old

            Years played in the majors by the age of 30

            Career Home Runs by the age of 30

            Career RBI by the age of 30

            Career Batting Average by the age of 30

            Years played in the majors after the age of 30

            Career Home Runs after the age of 30

            Career RBI after the age of 30

            Career Batting Average after the age of 30

            Percentage of career games that are after the age-30 season (Late Pct)

 

 

First	Last	YEAR	Years	G	HR	RBI	Avg	Years	G	HR	RBI	Avg	Late Pct
Deacon	White	1878	3	186	3	138	.348	12	1113	15	618	.295	86%
Jim	O'Rourke	1881	6	441	10	216	.315	13	1333	41	794	.308	75%
Cap	Anson	1882	7	488	5	404	.353	15	1788	92	1475	.322	79%
Dave	Foutz	1887	4	302	7	0	.296	9	833	24	548	.270	73%
Chief	Zimmer	1891	7	418	6	169	.235	12	862	20	451	.285	67%
Bones	Ely	1893	5	205	0	27	.240	9	1136	24	559	.261	85%
Frank	Bowerman	1899	5	226	4	108	.273	10	819	9	284	.243	78%
Jack	McCarthy	1899	4	364	7	188	.292	8	727	0	286	.284	67%
Doc	Casey	1900	3	172	1	61	.263	7	942	8	293	.258	85%
Jimmy	Austin	1910	2	269	3	75	.224	16	1311	10	315	.251	83%
Cy	Williams	1918	7	633	40	249	.256	12	1369	211	756	.308	68%
Ken	Williams	1920	5	289	16	125	.285	9	1108	180	788	.328	79%
Sam	Rice	1920	6	518	7	240	.319	14	1886	27	838	.323	78%
George	Harper	1922	4	288	2	99	.282	7	785	89	429	.310	73%
Sparky	Adams	1925	4	372	7	113	.284	9	1052	2	281	.286	74%
Rip	Radcliff	1936	3	298	18	155	.308	7	783	24	377	.312	72%
George	McQuinn	1940	4	491	48	273	.299	8	1059	87	521	.264	68%
Walker	Cooper	1945	6	437	30	241	.298	12	1036	143	571	.279	70%
Hank	Majeski	1947	5	355	16	154	.262	8	714	41	347	.289	67%
Hank	Sauer	1947	3	47	7	29	.290	12	1352	281	847	.266	97%
Jackie	Robinson	1949	3	454	40	257	.312	7	928	97	477	.311	67%
Dave	Philley	1950	6	606	21	228	.270	12	1298	63	501	.270	68%
Minnie	Minoso	1953	4	453	39	242	.305	13	1382	147	781	.296	75%
Jim	Rivera	1953	2	306	18	126	.256	8	865	65	296	.257	74%
Dale	Long	1956	3	323	46	182	.271	7	690	86	285	.264	68%
Elston	Howard	1959	5	533	52	260	.279	9	1072	115	502	.272	67%
Ed	Charles	1963	2	305	32	153	.277	6	700	54	268	.257	70%
Davey	Lopes	1975	4	453	24	114	.266	12	1359	131	500	.262	75%
Tom	Paciorek	1977	8	447	15	105	.254	10	945	71	398	.292	68%

 

            The rapid expansion in this era (1961-1977) appears to have prevented deserving players from being locked in the minors.  

First	Last	YEAR	Years	G	HR	RBI	Avg	Years	G	HR	RBI	Avg	Late Pct
Mike	Easler	1981	8	339	31	136	.302	6	812	87	386	.290	71%
Ernie	Whitt	1982	6	318	19	101	.240	9	1010	115	433	.251	76%
Jim	Eisenreich	1989	6	308	16	111	.268	9	1114	36	366	.297	78%
Otis	Nixon	1989	7	506	3	55	.222	10	1203	8	263	.280	70%
Edgar	Martinez	1993	7	563	49	217	.306	11	1492	260	1044	.314	73%
Jeff	Reboulet	1994	3	256	5	54	.242	9	762	15	148	.240	75%
Jeff	Conine	1996	6	604	81	372	.298	11	1420	133	699	.279	70%
Matt	Stairs	1998	6	401	64	226	.288	11	1360	195	655	.258	77%
Orlando	Palmeiro	1999	5	323	1	59	.279	8	883	11	167	.272	73%
Scott	Hatteberg	2000	6	360	31	134	.273	8	954	75	393	.273	73%
Craig	Counsell	2001	6	457	11	116	.269	9	1060	30	265	.253	70%
Raul	Ibanez	2002	7	472	51	215	.270	8	1201	181	755	.288	72%
Paul	Lo Duca	2002	5	350	40	174	.290	6	732	40	307	.284	68%
Melvin	Mora	2002	4	475	34	160	.249	8	1039	137	578	.289	69%
Casey	Blake	2004	6	353	47	162	.261	6	849	116	428	.265	71%

 

 

            The ultimate "late" career is Hank Sauer.    Luke Easter is not on the list because I required a 1000-game career.   Easter played only 491 major league games.