Who is the most overrated player in baseball right now?
It’s easy to consider that question retrospectively: we know that Jim Rice wasn’t as great as people thought he was. In the mid-1980’s a lot of people thought Don Mattingly was the best player in baseball. When Donnie got hurt Jose Canseco got the undeserved moniker…it’s easy to know who’s over-appreciated when you know the entirety of their career.
Considering some current players: Alfonso Soriano was pretty overrated, but people have caught on to that. Ryan Howard is getting paid substantially more than he is worth…if I had written this last year Howard would’ve absolutely been #1 on the list. He might still be number one: he had a poor 2010 season, and still finished 10th on this year’s MVP ballot.
But…I’d like to be forward-thinking about this one, and it seems like people are catching on to Howard. Just observationally: you don’t hear him talked about as one of the best players in the game anymore. There’s a ton of really good first basemen in baseball right now, and Howard doesn’t quite match up to Pujols, Votto, Adrian, Teixeira, or Fielder. Also: the Phillies were loudly criticized for the ridiculous extension they gave him.
If Ryan Howard finishes in the top-5 in the 2011 MVP vote, I’ll have to reconsider this. But I think Howard isn’t the most overrated player in baseball anymore. I think people have figured him out.
So who’s our guy now? Who is the most overrated player in baseball?
I think it’s Carlos Gonzalez.
Actually, I think he’s way ahead of the pack. I don’t know of anyone else in baseball that is as overrated as Carlos Gonzalez is.
To be fair, Gonzalez had a monster 2010 season: he hit .336 (1st) with 34 homeruns (4th) and 117 RBI’s (2nd). He stole 26 bases. He won a Gold Glove in the outfield. He did all that at the ripe old age of twenty-four…there are many Hall-of-Famers who’ve never had seasons as good as Gonzalez’s 2010 campaign.
I think there are a lot of specific contexts that help make Carlos Gonzalez overrated:
-The park. We all know that playing in Colorado boosts a player’s abilities, but…there’s a difference between knowing it and acting on it. Gonzalez finished third in the NL MVP vote: his road splits are ___
-He is fantasy gold. A lot of baseball fans play fantasy baseball, and Carlos Gonzalez was the most valuable player in fantasy baseball in 2010…he dominated all five of the conventional offensive categories, and he wasn’t ranked very high prior to the season. Plus, Gonzalez was eligible at all three outfield positions, so he is easy to build a team around.
-The great nickname. Car-Go is a great nickname: it’s fun and active, it’s easy to chant and put on signs, and it fits with this fast-paced media age, where it’s popular to shorten names (Brangelina). Carlos Gonzalez is a celebrity couple all by himself.
-He has good representation. He’s a Scott Boras client, which means that a) he will almost certainly become a free agent, and b) we will all get to read the glossy, 372-page guide outlining how closely Carlos Gonzalez’s career has mirrored Babe Ruth’s.
(Note: I’ll add that I respect Scott Boras a great deal. That he is so often derided for doing his job better than anyone else has always puzzled me.)
There are some flaws to Car-Go’s game:
-He never walks. He had 32 non-intentional walks last year, in 636 plate appearances. His on-base percentage, as a result, is very low: he hit .336 last year, with an on-base percentage of just .376.
-He was really lucky in 2010. Car-Go’s batting average on balls in play was .384, which is fantastically unsustainable. He had a lot of hits land between fielders last year…that trend won’t carry over to 2011.
-He is an overrated defensive player. Despite winning the Gold Glove award, Gonzalez is a good (but not great) defensive outfielder. He was very versatile in 2010, splitting time at all three outfield positions, but he is better suited at the corners than he is in center. John Dewan’s defensive data has him as a positive left-fielder, but a negative center- and right-fielder
I root for the Rockies…I’ve spent a lot of time in Denver, and I’ve had some great times at Coors. I love watching Carlos Gonzalez: he is a fantastically fun player, and he’s remarkably talented. But…someone has to be the most overrated player in baseball. Right now it’s Carlos Gonzalez.
MOST OVERRATED PITCHER
Obviously, this isn’t a scientific study. I just want to clarify that…I don’t have a metric that I’m using to make these calls. Please feel free to disagree with me in the comments section.
The most overrated pitcher in baseball history is Nolan Ryan. I think most of us could come to a consensus about that. He was a fantastic pitcher, but he was also staggeringly uncompromising.
So who is the most underrated pitcher in the game today?
Clifton Lee.
It must be, right? Certainly, he’s been the most talked about pitcher of the offseason, after being one of the two most talked about pitchers during the postseason. The great debate now is whether the Phillies rotation is the greatest ever, or just the greatest since Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine pitched for Atlanta.
Cliff Lee is a fine pitcher…but his success last year depended on staggering control (18 walks in 212.1 innings pitched). That is not the norm for Cliff Lee: his career walk rate prior to 2010 was three times higher than his walk rate last year. I don’t think he’ll be nearly as effective at avoiding walks in 2011, mostly because no one is that effective.
Cliff Lee and John Lackey were born in the same year, 1978. Lee was born in Arkansas in August, while Lackey was born in Texas in ‘tober. I imagine that most people assume that Lee has had a better career than Lackey:
|
Pitcher
|
W-L
|
W-L%
|
ERA
|
BB/9
|
K/9
|
ERA+
|
WAR
|
|
Lee
|
102-61
|
.626
|
3.89
|
2.7
|
7.1
|
112
|
22.1
|
|
Lackey
|
116-82
|
.586
|
3.85
|
2.2
|
6.9
|
114
|
27.2
|
They’re closer than I thought they’d be. Lee has the bigger seasons, but Lackey’s had a longer career.
Obviously, Cliff Lee is coming off a historical great 2010 season, while John Lackey was a disappointment in Boston. But…Lee is not all that far apart from John Lackey in his rate stats. He’s the most overrated pitcher in baseball.
MOST UNDERRATED POSITION PLAYER
There are a lot of choices here…
Adrian Gonzalez would’ve been an obvious choice, but he’s with the Red Sox now, and it would be unsporting to call any Red Sox player underrated. When Adrian hits 68 homeruns next year, he will stop being underrated.
The same is true for Crawford…a lot of Sox fans have been scoffing at the contract that the Red Sox gave Crawford. I was surprised by that: it seems obvious to me that Crawford is one of the 10-15 best players in baseball right now.
Ryan Zimmerman is underrated…he’s the most famously underrated player in the NL now that Adrian has switched leagues. He would be a good choice.
I love Billy Butler…he doesn’t get a lot of love away from Kansas, but he’s a helluva hitter.
Shin-Soo Choo has been terrific in Cleveland…maybe everyone know about this, but I want to mention it anyway. Choo is a native of South Korea, which requires all of its citizens to serve two years in the military. To get an exemption from service, Choo had to help South Korea win the Gold Medal during the recent Asian games in China. With his major league career on the line, Choo went 8-for-14 (.571 batting average) with 5 walks, 3 homeruns, 11 RBI’s, and two stolen bases during the five games it took South Korea to win the gold medal. You have to root for someone like that.
Brett Gardner is very underrated: he is a fine defensive player and a terrific base runner with an excellent on-base average. He was probably the second most valuable player on the Yankees last year, and no one seems to notice him. I hate the Yankees, but I really like Brett Gardner. And Nick Swisher. And Cano.
But I’m going with a player who a) led his league in walks in 2010, and b) was one of the best defensive players in all of baseball.
Daric Barton is the most underrated player in baseball.
The first baseman for the Oakland A’s had a terrific 2010 season, wresting the Fielding Bible Award away from Albert Pujols with a staggering 20 Defensive Runs Saved. He walked 110 times last year, and led Oakland to a surprising .500 finish. He’s just 25 years old next year, and no one outside of Oakland is paying any attention to him.
MOST UNDERRATED PITCHER
If I asked you to guess the six best pitchers of 2008-2010 according to WAR, you’d probably guess them in seven or eight tries:
|
Name
|
WAR ('08-'10)
|
|
Roy Halladay
|
20.1
|
|
CC Sabathia
|
16.8
|
|
Tim Lincecum
|
16.7
|
|
Cliff Lee
|
16.6
|
|
Felix Hernandez
|
16.3
|
|
Jon Lester
|
16.2
|
That’s not hard. The only guy who hasn’t won serious hardware is Jon Lester, and he’s not exactly an unknown commodity.
So who is #7 on that list?
You might guess Zack Greinke, who had that monster 2009 season (9.0 WAR). You’d be wrong. You could go with Oswalt or Hamels of the Phillies, or Wainwright or Carpenter of the Cardinals. Bostonian will consider John Lackey or Josh Beckett. If you’re an Angels fan you’d hazard Jered Weaver, who led the AL in strikeouts last year and has been an excellent and very underappreciated pitcher. You might guess Dan Haren or Yovani Gallardo, and you’d still be wrong. If you’re a Cubs fan you might try Zambrano. Giants fans will try Cain; Giants owners will hope it's Zito. If you’re a Pirates fan you should probably pick a different team. Francisco Liriano? No. David Price? No? Chad Billingsly? No. Tim Hudson? No. A closer? Mariano or Papelbon or Soria? Nope and nope and nope.
That list, with #7:
|
Name
|
WAR ('08-'10)
|
|
Roy Halladay
|
20.1
|
|
CC Sabathia
|
16.8
|
|
Tim Lincecum
|
16.7
|
|
Cliff Lee
|
16.6
|
|
Felix Hernandex
|
16.3
|
|
Jon Lester
|
16.2
|
|
John Danks
|
16.1
|
John Danks...really.
Danks has been excellent for the White Sox, and no one has noticed it. Every year he makes 32 starts, gets his 200 innings, and posts an ERA about 20% better than the league average. He is an astonishingly good pitcher, on par with Lee and Hernandez and Lester and Greinke, and no one knows it.
Congratulations John Danks: you’re the most underrated pitcher in baseball.
2011 Most Overrated Player: Carlos Gonzalez
2011 Most Overrated Pitcher: Cliff Lee
2011 Most Underrated Player: Daric Barton
2012 Most Underrated Pitcher: John Danks
We’ll check back next year.
(Just a friendly reminder: voting is still going on for the BJOL Hall of Fame. Go to ‘Other Columnists’ list and click the article called ‘2011 BJOL Hall of Fame.’ Cast your ballot in the comments section.)
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and letters from Yankees fans complaining that the Red Sox are the new Yankees both here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.