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Best Players, Pyramid

January 12, 2011

The Best Hitters

 

            The greatest season ever by a hitter. . ..just my system. . .was by Babe Ruth in 1921 (.378, 59 homers, 171 RBI.)     The greatest season by a hitter who didn’t hit .300 was by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.299, 70 homers, 147 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .275 was by Maris in 1961 (.269, 61 homers, 142 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .260 was by Mike Schmidt in 1979 (.259, 45 homers, 114 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .250 was by Adam Dunn in 2005 (.247, 40 homers, 101 RBI), and the greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .240 was Dunn in 2008 (.236, 40 homers, 100 RBI.)   The best hitter of 2010 who didn’t hit .250 was Carlos Quentin (.243, 26 homers, 87 RBI), so the White Sox now have both the best hitter of 2010 and the best hitter of all time in sub-.250 seasons.   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .230 was Carlos Pena in 2009 (.227, 39 homers, 100 RBI).

            For the greatest season by a player who didn’t hit even .220 we go in a different direction.    Hugh Nicol in 1887 hit .215 with no homers, but stole 138 bases and scored 122 runs.   If you consider the 19th century eligible, then Nicol wins this category; if not, it goes to Gorman Thomas, 1979 (.215, 32 homers, 87 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .210 was by Mark Reynolds in 2010 (.198, 32 homers, 85 RBI), which also qualifies as the greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .200, either.     The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .190 was by Mark McGwire in 2001 (.187, but with 29 homers in 97 games.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit .180 was by Rob Deer in 1991 (.179, 25 homers, 64 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit even .170 was probably by Larry Lintz, one of Charlie Finley’s pinch runners, in 1976; Lintz went 0-for-1 on the season but stole 31 bases.

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit 50 home runs was by Lou Gehrig in 1927 (.373, 47 homers, 175 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit 40 home runs, if you count the 19th century eligible, was by Hugh Duffy in 1894 (.440, 18 homers, 145 RBI).   If you don’t count the 19th century it would be Ty Cobb in 1911 (.424, 8 homers, 127 RBI, 83 stolen bases.)   Let’s not count the 19th century from now on; I don’t think it’s major league baseball.

            In either case, whether we use Duffy or Cobb, that takes care of the players who didn’t hit 30 homers, 20 homers, or, using Cobb, 10 homers.    The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit 5 homers was by Joe Jackson in 1912 (.395, 3 homers, 90 RBI.)

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 100 runs was by Rogers Hornsby in 1924 (.424, 25 homers, 94 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 90 runs was by Joe Jackson in 1911 (.408, 7 homers, 83 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 80 runs was by Jesse Burkett in 1901 (.376, 10 homers, 75 RBI), and the greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 70 runs was by Rickey Henderson in 1990 (.325, 28 homers, 61 RBI, 65 stolen bases, 119 runs scored.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 60 runs was by Woody English in 1930, setting up Hack Wilson (.335, 14 homers, 59 RBI, 214 hits, 100 walks, 152 runs scored.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 50 runs was by Tim Raines in 1985 (.320, 11 homers, 41 RBI, 70 stolen bases, 115 runs scored.)  The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 40 runs was by Richie Ashburn in 1958 (.350, 2 homers, 33 RBI; led the National League in hits (215), walks (97) and missed by one of leading in stolen bases (30).)  The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 30 runs was by Lloyd Waner in 1927 (.355, 223 hits, 133 runs scored, 2 homers, 27 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in 20 runs was by Luis Castillo in 2000 (.334, 2 homers, 17 RBI, 62 stolen bases, 101 runs scored.)

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t bat 500 times was by Barry Bonds in 2001 (.328, 73 homers, 138 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t bat 400 times was Bonds in 2004, the year they walked him 232 times (.362, 45 homers, 101 RBI.)  The greatest season by a player who didn’t bat 300 times was by Mark McGwire in 2000 (.301, 32 homers, 73 RBI in 236 at bats.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t bat 200 times was by Smokey Joe Wood in 1921 (.366, 4 homers, 60 RBI in 194 at bats.)  (Actually, one can make an argument for Willie McCovey in 1959, in 192 at bats; he had much more power than Wood, but drove in "only" 38 runs.)  The greatest season by a player who didn’t bat 100 times was by Ted Williams in 1953 (.407, 13 homers, 34 RBI.)

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t play 150 games was by Babe Ruth in 1920 (.376, 54 homers, 137 RBI.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t play 140 games was by Rogers Hornsby in 1925 (.403, 39 homers, 143 RBI in 138 games.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t play 130 games was by Jimmie Foxx in 1939 (.360, 35 homers, 105 RBI in 124 games.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t play 120 games was by Jeff Bagwell in 1994 (.367, 39 homers, 116 RBI in 110 games.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t play 110 games was by Albert Belle, also in 1994 (.357, 36 homers, 101 RBI in 106 games.)

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t play even 100 games was by Ted Williams in 1955 (.356, 28 homers, 83 RBI in 98 games), and the greatest season by a player who didn’t play 90 games was by Ted Williams in 1950 (.317, 28 homers, 97 RBI in 89 games.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t play 80 games was by Joe DiMaggio in 1949, the year of his heel injury (.346, 14 homers, 67 RBI in 76 games.)  I believe this is our first mention of the 1940s in this article.   The greatest season by a player who didn’t play in 70 games was by Reb Russell in 1922 (.368, 12 homers 75 RBI in 60 games.)   Somebody should write a book about Reb Russell; he was kind of the Chuck Connors of the 1920s.    The greatest season by a player who didn’t play in 60 games was by Ken Caminiti in 2000 (.303, 15 homers, 45 RBI in 59 games.)  The greatest season by a player who didn’t play in 50 games—or 40 games—was, again, by Ted Williams in 1953 (stats given earlier.)

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t draw 100 walks was by Chuck Klein in 1930 (.386, 40 homers, 170 RBI.)  Klein drew only 54 walks, so that protects us fairly far down the walk ladder.   The greatest season by a player who didn’t draw 50 walks was by Ty Cobb in 1911 (stats given earlier.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t draw 40 walks was by Al Simmons in 1930 (.381, 36 homers, 165 RBI, 39 walks.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t draw 30 walks was by Nap Lajoie in 1901 (.426, 14 homers, 125 RBI, 24 walks.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t draw 20 walks was by Charles (Piano Legs) Hickman in 1902 (.361 with 11 homers, 110 RBI, only 15 walks.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t make it into double digits in the walk category was by Mariano Duncan in 1996 (.334, 8 homers, 56 RBI, only 9 walks.)

            The greatest season by a player who didn’t hit any home runs was by Eddie Collins in 1912 (.348, 0 homers, 64 RBI, 63 stolen bases, 137 runs scored.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t steal any bases was by Sammy Sosa in 2001 (.328, 64 homers, 160 RBI.)  

The greatest season by a player who didn’t draw any walks was by Matt LeCroy, also in 2001 (.425, 3 homers, 12 RBI in 40 at bats, but no walks.)   The greatest season by a player who didn’t drive in any runs was by Larry Lintz in 1976 (31 stolen bases, 0-for-1 as a hitter.)

 

 

 

The Pyramid

 

            I don’t know why it took me until I was 61 years old to realize this, but. . .does it occur to anyone but me that it is very unnatural to have a minor league system which is not in the shape of a pyramid?

            This occurred to me recently, when the discussions arose about a pyramid-shaped Hall of Fame, while I was also doing some work on the minor leagues.   The minor leagues, as they arose in nature, were rather in the shape of a pyramid, in that there were a lot of bad leagues for each good league.   The leagues in their early history did not have classifications or grades; that arose about 1905, when the leagues were organized into levels; there were more teams at the lower levels than at the higher levels.

            When Branch Rickey began taking control of minor league teams to create an organized farm system (mid-1920s), his system was a pyramid.  As late as the mid-1950s, the Dodger farm system retained a distinct pyramid shape.    The switch from a pyramid-shaped to a tube-shaped farm system occurred from about 1945 to about 1965, as four things happened:

            1.   Large numbers of minor league teams died,

            2.   Expansion, urbanization and television ate up many of the minor league markets,

            3.   The major leagues gained full control over the surviving minor league teams, and

            4.   The major league teams, acting in concert, began to coordinate minor league policies.

            When major league farm directors thought about a farm system, they thought it should be sort of like a school system, where a student proceeds from Grade 6 to Grade 7 to Grade 8; a player would proceed from Low A to High A to Double-A to Triple-A.  They also thought that this would save them money; in fact, they still think that.   If you talk to a farm director about adding a second team in Low A, what he will probably say is, "We don’t have enough real prospects to fill up one team in Low A.   What do we need with a second one?"

            I would argue that a tube-shaped minor league system is artificial, and that this constricts the flow of talent to the major leagues, and causes numerous other real-life problems.   Let us say that a major league player is at level 100, a triple-A player at level 90, a Double-A player at 80, etc.   A tube-shaped minor league system is artificial because, in fact, there are many, many more players at level 60 than at level 80, and many more players at level 80 than at level 100, and it is dysfunctional because, in fact, players do not progress normally from level 60 to level 70, level 70 to level 80.   Some players progress from 60 to 70 and from 70 to 80, of course, but as many players do not progress from each level as do, so that if you have a hundred players at level 60, you’ll get 5 to 8 at level 100.

            This simple fact—which I suspect few people would deny—makes it unnatural to have a tube-shaped minor league system, and this creates a system in which teams are always trying to force players up from the bottom, rather than allowing them to rise naturally.   This allows "cavities" to form at the higher levels, which of course has happened.   Since teams generally have only two to five minor league prospects who are near the level of major-league ready—two to five prospects at "90"—Triple A baseball has been taken over by non-prospects hanging around like vultures, waiting for somebody at the major league level to drop dead.   This has caused the relative quality of Triple A baseball vs. the majors to slide backward, which has made the step up from the minors to the majors a larger step, which creates problems for major league teams.  Even Double-A teams are largely populated by what could be called lower-class Triple-A players—players not quite good enough to hang around and hope at the Triple A level. 

            A second problem with the current system is that it cuts off the development of a certain type of player—what could be called the Enos Slaughter/Pete Rose type of player.   In my youth there were players around, like Tony Gonzalez, Johnny Temple, Wally Moon, Dick McAuliffe, Bob Skinner, Smoky Burgess, Don Mincher and Cesar Tovar, who really didn’t seem to possess outstanding ability, and who would never have been high draft picks or received large bonuses in the current system.    Pete Rose and Enos Slaughter were like that, although they had very successful careers.   What made these players stand out was not that they ran terribly fast or threw tremendously well or were big and strong, but that, when you put them in uniform and let them play, they succeeded.   They compensated in determination, adaptability and competitiveness for what they lacked in more obvious ability.

            There are still some of those type of players around, like Jed Lowrie and Brandon Inge, but not so many of them; our system now is not good at identifying or developing that type of talent.  This leads to a third problem with the current system:  that it designates "stars" too early in their progress, contributing to an entitlement mentality among athletes who have been designated for stardom from an early age.  There is a fourth problem, which I will get to shortly.

            Here’s how the system could have evolved, that would have worked better.   Teams now have at least six levels of minor league competition, really 7 for most teams (AAA, AA, High A, Low A, Rookie, Short-Season Rookie, and international development leagues.)   Suppose that we had only four (A, B, C and D.   Which was the original minor league structure, 100 years ago.)   Suppose that, rather than running seven or eight minor league teams, teams ran 20—two at A level, four at B, six at C, and eight at D.

            Of course, it would cost more money to sustain 20 teams than it does to sustain 7 or 8, but this could be and would be offset by other savings.   In order to sustain 20 teams on the budget now used for seven, you would have to generate more money from local support for the teams.   In order to generate more money from local support, you would have to allow those teams the integrity to conduct a meaningful competition.

            What that means, in practice, is that major league teams could not take players away from their minor league subordinates in the middle of the race—which they could not do originally.   When free minor league teams made arrangements with major league teams in the 1930s and 1940s, those arrangements always sharply limited the ability of the major league team to move players up in mid-season.   A major league team might be able to "move up" one or two players a year during the season—or none; otherwise, they left the roster alone.   When a major league team did move up a player in mid-season, they were required to replace him with a player from a higher league.   This was considered necessary, because how can a minor league team compete, how can they sell their product to their fans, if the interests of the minor league team are openly sacrificed to the interests of the major league team?

            After a few years, the minor league operators looked around, and realized that they could not go home again.   They could no longer opt out of the arrangements they had entered into, which meant that major league teams could—and did—dictate the terms of the next contract.   By the mid-1950s major league teams generally had the legal right to move players whenever they wanted to move them, but even then—and into the early 1960s—it was considered bad form for a major league team to do this willy-nilly.    If a minor league team had a player who was hitting .350 or hitting .300 with power—like Dick Stuart with Lincoln in 1956 or Steve Bilko with Los Angeles in 1956/1957—the major league affiliate was expected to leave him there and let him be the star, let him sell tickets, until the season was over.

            By the mid-1960s even this courtesy had become a dead letter.   Major league teams moved players up or sent them down whenever and wherever they felt like it, which made it difficult for minor leagues to have meaningful competitions or to sell tickets.   If you think about it, the structure I am suggesting here is like the structure of college football or college basketball, in which there are many competitive teams at lower levels, few competitive teams at the highest level, but at any level, professional sports have no ability to invade the team and disrupt the competition in mid-season.    Think what it would do the NCAA basketball if the NBA, in mid-season, decided that it liked Kemba Walker or Nolan Smith, and it would simply sign him to a contract in mid-season, to hell with the NCAA tourney.    That’s what happened to minor league baseball.   The major league teams started taking the best players off the minor league teams in mid-season, which made it impossible for the minor leagues to conduct a meaningful competition.

            The major league teams were acting in their selfish best interests, which is a normal thing; all businesses normally do what is best for themselves, rather than worrying about what helps the industry.   But by behaving selfishly, major league teams reduced the amount of money flowing into the industry, which placed (essentially) the entire burden of funding the minor league system on the major league team.   Major league teams thus (predictably) cut back on the number of teams in their system.   If they had allowed the minor league teams to run legitimate competitions that could sustain fan interest, thus generating income, they could have sustained 20 teams on the money that now goes to eight, but they would all have had to see the point of this at the same time.   Enlightened self-interest.

            Here’s the system I propose:

a)  Two teams at A level, four at B, six at C, eight at D (you said that already.) 

            b)  Each league runs a complete season of 150 or more games.

            c)  Every player going to the major leagues, without exception, is required to spend three full seasons in the minor leagues.

            d)  Minor league teams can trade at the same level for players who are not on the major league 40-man roster and not under the control of the major league team.   Major league teams might be allowed to "control" an additional 25 to 30 players who are not yet on their 40-man roster, as they do in the current system.

            e)  Minor league teams are not allowed to "trade up" or "trade down" in mid-season.

            f)  D level teams are allowed to sign new players and release old ones without restraint, but no player from a D level team may be moved to a higher level in mid-season.

            g)  Some D level teams may be independent operators, unaffiliated with a major league teams. 

            h)  C level teams again could sign players and release them in mid-season, and could "borrow" players from higher leagues for short periods of time with the consent of the higher-level team, but could not accept players promoted in mid-season from D level teams.

            i)  No more than two players per season could be designated for mid-season advancement from C level to B; however, those players would have to be publicly identified before the start of the season.   The players identified would not HAVE to be promoted; however, only those two players could be promoted.

            j)  B level teams could sign and release players, could borrow players from A level teams for limited periods of time with the consent of those teams, could accept players promote in mid-season from C level, and could be forced to give up no more than one player per season to the A level team or the major league team, provided that that player was replaced by another healthy player who could play the same position.

            k)  A level teams could sign and release players, and could be forced to give up no more than two players per season (in season) to the major league team, provided that those players were replaced by healthy players coming down from the majors.

            Each minor league would have a designated officer—a local fan or a local mayor, for example—who had to consent to a player being loaned to a lower-level team.   The idea is that if a minor league team has an injury to a key player, when there is a player in the system who is warming the bench at a higher level and who could play regularly for the lower-level team, then the team could "borrow" the higher-ranking player to get them past the injury.   But the major league team can’t move players up and down just because they feel like it; it has to be done because it works for both minor league teams.

            A fourth problem with minor league baseball as it is is that nobody at all cares about the lower-level competitions.   If you go to a game in the Gulf Coast League or some of the other low-level leagues, you will notice that there is nobody there.   The attendance at the game will consist of wives, girlfriends and parents of the players, a handful of scouts, perhaps ten or fifteen retirees, and that’s it; those teams have no fan base whatsoever.   It creates a very desultory atmosphere at those games, with the appearance at times that the players are just going through the motions.

            I see this system as having the following advantages for major league teams:

            1)  That it would allow minor league teams to gradually re-build their fan base, thus increasing the amount of revenue flowing into the game,

            2)  That it would create more opportunities for players with marginal skills but high determination to succeed at the lower levels, thus increasing the flow of talent to the majors,

            3)  That the three-year mandatory minor league buffer would slightly reduce the pressure on major league teams to pay bonuses to amateur players, and

            4)  That the three-year minor league buffer and the increased regular flow of talent to the majors would significantly reduce the pressure on major league teams to do international scouting and to pay high bonuses to international players.

            Under the current operating arrangement major league teams are limited as to the number of minor league affiliates they can have.   The thinking was that by limiting the number of minor league affiliates MLB would control the costs of operating a minor league system, but this hasn’t worked at all; what has happened is that the money that would otherwise have gone into operating a larger minor league system has been diverted into international scouting and international player development.   Those costs would not simply go away with a more robust minor league system, but I would predict that they would gradually atrophy, as teams would gradually see more talent rising through their farm systems.

            Yes, it would "disadvantage" the major league teams in that they would no longer be able to swap out the major league roster with the triple-A roster in mid-season, as teams do now, but, as it would disadvantage all of the teams in the same manner, it would disadvantage none of them in competition with the others.

            In a farm system you would have 20 minor league shortstops—8 at level D, 6 at C, 4 at B, 2 at A, each one of whom had had a full minor league apprenticeship and full seasons at each level of competition.    The gap between the highest level of the minors and the majors would shrink back to something more like it was in the 1950s.  If you needed a shortstop you would automatically have two candidates to step in.   If they were both weak, you’d have 58 trade candidates from the other systems.   The fear of being left without a shortstop would diminish as the tide of talent rose.

            I would also argue that this system might—might possibly—work to depress major league salaries, as it would create more competition for major league jobs, thus driving down marginal salaries.   A team now can pay $1.5 million for Jeff Francoeur or whoever because there’s a perception that there’s nobody else there who can do the job.

            Of course, there will be people who will argue that increasing the number of minor league shortstops would not increase the number of good shortstops.  You only have so many players who have the ability to play in the majors; increasing the number of minor leaguers won’t change that.   That’s a side argument and this isn’t the place to get into that, but those people are simply and flatly wrong.   Competition produces players.   If you increase the number of players who get an opportunity to play, you will increase the number of major-league ready players who come out of the system—not proportionately, but you will increase them.   If you increase the number of minor league teams by 150%, from 8 to 20, you won’t increase the number of major league-ready shortstops by 150%, but you will increase it by 50 or 60%.

            More to the point, since talent in baseball is naturally a pyramid, if you make a farm system a pyramid it will produce more players who are able to advance naturally through that system—rather than cutting off opportunity at the lowest level by making premature decisions about who has the "talent" to advance consistently through a tube-shaped system.   Talent in the major leagues is the far right-hand side of a bell-shaped distribution curve.   If you cut off the right-hand side of a bell-shaped distribution curve and stand it on its side, it’s a pyramid.

 
 

COMMENTS (23 Comments, most recent shown first)

smbakeresq
Why I dont agree with some of the player movement restrictions, I have always agreed that the minors were too small. MLB though so too, so teams set up Latin American Academies to expand. I think that minor league players should be paid a decent, livable wage of course. In the draft, I think way too much money is given to the top of the draft board, I think that slot system would work, especially since with this structure many more players would be under contract. Many players get to the pros because of their contract, when you give a guy a ton of money at the top of the draft you have to play him.

I think also teams would try different strategies. Some would just try to sign a bunch of talented kids at age 18, and then let them develop, others woudl have many more college kids to get a 'sure' return instead of catching a superstar with many failures.

Another example was Brooks Robinson, you even know the quote "Richards got me out of better to see this kid who couldnt run, couldnt throw and could hit. I would have never signed Brooks Robinson."
4:20 PM Feb 1st
 
oldehippy
It seems to me one of the objections is the public won't support the minor league teams. I'm not so sure that is true. While it's the diehard baseball fans that support this website and play fantasy baseball and such, that is not who attends baseball games. I did a study for a sociology class in college. I studied who went to games at Wrigley Field. While there were certainly a number of die hard baseball fans, most people were party where there was a live baseball game. I think attendance for the additional minor league teams can be gotten if the owners of those teams decide to charge a price for beer that can be bought at a local bar. And the food should be moderately priced also. And the tickets should also be moderately priced. I think you get a better profit by having 1000 people attend a minor league game for $3.00 than you do if you have 150 people attend it at $10 per head.

I really do think Bill's idea could work. But will the MLB even consider it's implementation? Not likely. It would be better to show MLB that it does work better by getting the Red Sox to implement this strategy, even slowly. If not, there's no hope for another great idea!
6:59 PM Jan 21st
 
StatsGuru
I liked your writing on this subject in the 1980s better, when you wanted to free the minor leagues from major league control. While I like the idea of a pyramid, I also like the idea that a 20-year-old can play major league baseball with little minor league experience. Why not just make every move of a player a trade?
11:48 AM Jan 18th
 
greggborgeson
It's a sweeping plan, and would certainly strengthen the sport. But it is unlikely to come about for some of the reasons other readers have suggested. However,it seems to me that parts of the plan could be implemented, particularly those aspects that encourage or require roster stability. As Bill points out, all teams would be disadvantaged equally if free movement of players was curtailed, and the fan base of every team would benefit, leading to better attended games, deeper national engagement with the sport of baseball and a more rewarding experience for the players, including especially those who never make it to the big leagues.

I agree with Bill's conclusion that increasing the pool will result in more major-league ready players. But isn't this a strategy that teams can pursue, to a large degree, unilaterally, simply by funding several rookie teams who, if need be, play each other?

With simple rule changes limiting mobility for all of baseball, and the good old capitalist system allowing teams to experiment with increasing their pool of lesser-skilled players, I think that what Bill envisions could and would evolve, to a large degree, over time.
8:08 AM Jan 15th
 
jonfel14
How would it lower bonus payments? The big prospects (especially the multi-sport stars) would demand higher bonuses if they know they're going to be stuck in the minors for 3 years no matter what.
2:18 PM Jan 14th
 
rgregory1956
My guess is that there are enough fans in the smaller cities that Bill's plan could work. I even think that there are enough players for it to work. I'm just not sure that there are enough legitimate venture capitalists to make it work. The financial risk versus financial reward would be huge. Any economical downturn, like we've had the past few years, would be catastophical to the low minors.
12:27 PM Jan 14th
 
rollo131
I disagree that nobody cares about the low minor leagues. In my city the Class A (Sally League) Riverdogs games are usually quite well-attended, and I suspect that's the case in many small cities with low-level minor league teams. Ticket prices are low, concession prices are reasonably low, and there's plenty to do in the park besides watch the game; it's really a great value, from a family outing standpoint. Also, the Riverdogs are owned by none other than Mike Veeck and Bill Murray, and the team puts a lot of emphasis on between-inning entertainment and ballpark stunts, such as "Silent Night," when no one in the ballpark is allowed to make any noise (the effect is quite surreal.)

It is true that no one really cares about the competitive aspect of the games, which is of course unfortunate. I like this proposed system very much. Only one small question: How do you get Organized Baseball to adopt it?
11:30 AM Jan 14th
 
jsc1973
The argument that there "aren't enough baseball fans" for this many teams is a red herring. If that were so, how come there are so many successful independent league teams operating today? If you provide a good product, people will come to see it.

But instituting a requirement that any player going into the minors has to spend three years there is just going to create all sorts of other problems. First, for the reasons a lot of other people stated (free agency eligibility, etc.), it would absolutely kill college baseball. Second, it would likely hurt the quality of major league baseball, as any team who drafts a prospect they consider "a year away" is going to send that player directly to the major leagues, rather than have them waste two additional years in the minors before they can use them.

On top of that, I don't believe this kind of reform is even going to be necessary in the long run. I believe the independent leagues, outside of organized baseball, will continue to grow, and in due time, we'll see the return of competitive minor-league baseball across the nation regardless of what organized baseball does.
10:44 AM Jan 14th
 
jwilt
Re: Mac and Don. You'd have to change the free agency qualifications in the majors. You could make it age-based, so when you hit 28 or 30 or whatever you get to be a free agent no matter what your service time is. If I understand this correctly, the NHL already does this.

And I also agree with those who say this is pretty implausible in today's entertainment environment. Even with teams playing meanginful games, you might have issues with doubling the number of teams and having most of them financially viable. You would probably have A LOT of churn at the Class D level, teams moving, disbanding, failing to make payroll, desperately hiring strippers as usherettes (ok, so that might not be bad...).
9:35 AM Jan 14th
 
jdw
On Don's comment about players being held back, we already have that in the NBA (HS + 1 year, with movement to make it two) and the NFL (HS + 3 years). Both those have happened laregly due to Vets being willing to sell Rookies down the river. As is the Rookie Salary Caps, which the NBA has, is coming to the NFL, and probably would be something the Owners could get in MLB is they worked with the MLBPA rather than constantly went scortched earth.

What would happen with the mandatory three-year minor league career is something we've seen in the NBA with the various things to inhibit salaries for young players (Rookie Contract Cap, 7 year max for second contract with "out" options, etc):

Every player looks at the Clock and getting on it

The really big money no longer is the rookie deal like David Robinson or Patrick Ewing got. Those are all capped now.

Nor is it the second contract like Shaq got or Kevin Garnett got. While those are very good contracts now, they've been capped to a level far below what was possible in KG's day.

It's the third contract: the one that Wade, Bosh and Lebron just got.

So the objective of *every* kid who things he's great coming out of high school is to Get On The Clock and start burning those years off.

In baseball, if you go to college and stay three years, here's what you'll face at a minimum to get the big bucks:

HS: 3 college + 3 years minors + 6 years in the pros = 12 years to FA

You'll be 30, roughly.

Your decision to go to college, and/or stay in college, now becomes driving by that forced extra 3 years you're forced to stay in the minors. If you're Roger Clemens or Robin Ventura who can fast track to the bigs, those days are over.

Again, 3 years is *forced*. If you're not in the bigs within 3 years, you're talking 31... 32 before you see free agenecy. And you're prime years guzzled by the team that drafted you for *cheap*: minimum, then pre-arbitration, then arbitration or contracts to avoid it.

MLB doesn't care about college baseball, so there *is* the talent to fill out most of those 600 teams: there would be a massive increase in players skipping college to go pro, and there would be more players opting out of college earlier.

The other thing interesting about the three-year minimum is that I wonder if it's a shift in Bill's old positions on "Rushing Them". Is there a developmental value in Robin Ventura and Frank Thomas not being able to play in the Majors fulltime until 1992? What would the benefits have been to the White Sox to not have those guys on the MLB roster in 1991, or in 1990.

Ventura was a mediocre player in 1990, but was in the sense learning up there as well as he could have in the minors. Thomas probably was the best hitter in the majors from the moment he debuted in the second half of 1990. About the only thing he could have gotten out of another year and a half in the minors is being stuck with someone like Mickey Hatcher as a coach screwing him up. He pretty clearly benefited from getting to the majors fast and being able to show that *his* decisions on how to hit was extremely successful.

Would it even be three-years for guys out of college?
2:04 PM Jan 13th
 
Zeth
Yeah, but the players that would object--minor leaguers--have no voice. The MLBPA has a voice, but probably also would not easily accept this arrangement if it has potential to depress major league salaries. (However, I'm uncertain the MLBPA would have any power to stop this minor league arrangement if the owners decided they wanted to do it; that is, I don't know if it would even be subject to collective bargaining.)
1:47 PM Jan 13th
 
BringBackTriandos
Players would object to being held back from a larger pay day. How many players make it to the majors (and stay there!) in less than three years? Why not add a provision that allows the major league team to advance one or two exceptional players in less than three years? Brian Matusz is a good example. He'd be still a year from the majors under this system. I'm sure there are others... It's time to pore over the Handbook I guess.
1:16 PM Jan 13th
 
macthomason
Isn't this unfair to the players? In the past, you've argued that most good players wind up wasting a lot of their careers in the minors when they're ready for the majors well before. Under this system, a four-year college player would be 26 by the time he got a chance to play in the majors, 29 by the time he went to arbitration, and probably out of baseball before he could possibly become a free agent.

Hence, the union (rightly) would never, ever approve of it.
11:55 AM Jan 13th
 
stevebogus
From a historic perspective, the minor leagues weren't always a pyramid structure. The general shape was like an upside down funnel, with the pyramid at the lowest levels and tubular at the highest levels.

The minor leagues peaked in the postwar boom, around 1948-1950. Checking baseball reference I found:

1948 class AAA 24 teams in 3 leagues
1948 class AA 16 teams in 2 leagues
1948 class A 28 teams in 4 leagues
1948 class B 68 teams in 9 leagues
1948 class C 112 teams in 15 leagues
1948 class D 190 teams in 25 leagues

The lowest levels represented small towns, and in tough economic times many of these teams couldn't afford to stay in business. The postwar boom lasted a few years, and by the late 1950s the US was in a recession. In 1959:

1959 class AAA 26 teams in 3 leagues
1959 class AA 20 teams in 3 leagues
1959 class A 16 teams in 2 leagues
1959 class B 20 teams in 3 leagues
1959 class C 20 teams in 3 leagues
1959 class D 48 teams in 7 leagues

The low level minors were always fighting for survival. Aside from the post- WW2 boom, the minors reached their greatest size just before WW1. The minors shrank during the war, with many class C and D leagues shutting down while the higher levels hung on. After the war leagues began to re-organize and the minors were growing through the roaring '20s when the depression hit. Only the higher levels got through the depression relatively intact.

Competition from football, basketball, and televised sports were factors which likely prevented the minors from rebounding in the 1960s. But the biggest factor was the removal of the low minors from its traditional role in scouting and player development. Back when major league teams employed few (or no) scouts it was the role of the local teams to sign young players and give them their first taste of professional ball. The best players would then be sold to higher leagues to generate revenue which helped keep the team in business. When major league teams began "poaching" in their territory those local teams lost an important revenue source. It got to the point that the low minors could not survive without subsidies from the major leagues. At the beginning of the 1950s there were still some teams that had virtually no scouting department. By 1960 that was no longer true.
11:40 AM Jan 13th
 
TJNawrocki
The problem with this system is the way it deals with injuries at the major league level. If Troy Tulowitzki breaks his leg next April 15, the Rockies would be permitted to call up their A shortstop, but only if they sent down a healthy player at the same time. So now they're down to 24 healthy players at the major league level. If Todd Helton and Ian Stewart then break their legs on April 16, the Rockies can only call up one A-level player to replace them. Once they send another healthy player down, they're at 22 players on the major league roster.

Where are the other players going to come from? Other major league teams are also limited to bringing up two minor leaguers per season, so they're not going to be thrilled about trading away their backups in-season knowing that they're also giving up one of their two free moves.

You'd be stuck with lots of what the NFL calls street free agents, players who aren't active in the game but go straight to the major leagues in case of injury. This would result in major league teams - good major league teams, contenders - being forced to play people like Cliff Floyd and Jeremy Sowers.

The real winners would be the indy leagues. Players shoved out of major league jobs would go to the independent minors, to avoid being locked into an A or B level team. The indy teams would become the real farm system for the majors, selling players as replacement for injured stars.
10:01 AM Jan 13th
 
evanecurb
Agree about the effect of the system on the Rose/Slaughter types. I had a friend and teammate in high school, we'll call him Steve Douglas (because that was his name) who was a third round pick of the Twins in '75. He played for Elizabethton (Rookie Appalachian League) in his first season, where I attended a half dozen or so games that summer. Steve played second base, and had a decent year. The shortstop, who we will call Rick Sofield (sic?), was a first round pick. Rick was a Billy Beane type - great athlete - turned down a scholarship to play QB at U of Michigan - great power, loads of potential, but couldn't hit. At all. And he didn't appear to give a great amount of effort. At third base was Levi Raines, who was short, didn't look like an athlete, and had been signed as an undrafted free agent. Levi was a fan favorite because he gave 100% effort, on every single play, all the time. He had a good season, hitting over .300, fielded his position well, ran the bases well, etc. He and Steve were clearly better players than Sofield. Levi Raines never made it past A ball, because the Twins had no investment in him. Not only had he not received a bonus, no front office guy had advocated for drafting him. As soon as he had a year where his numbers were slightly down, he was released. This happens in the minor leagues all the time, for the reasons you stated. Sofield, like Billy Beane, made it to the show and flopped. Steve Douglas had a good minor league career, got hurt a few times, and the Twins gave up on him after six years in their system.

Levi's younger brother Tim played in the show for 20 years, and one day may be in the Hall of Fame.
12:34 AM Jan 13th
 
MAH
Makes sense to me.
11:47 PM Jan 12th
 
jdurkee
This is a wonderful idea, but I believe it won’t work today.

The core problem is that we don’t have enough baseball fans to attend all the proposed minor league games. Baseball has ceased to be the “national pastime.” Football, or video games, is that.

Bill’s case for the major league teams for this pyramid arrangement is that they get more certainty in play evaluations. Second, signing bonuses become more controllable. I suggest that goal can be achieved with another pyramid arrangement.

Substitute the college baseball infrastructure for the lower classes of play, and create a pyramid using college teams at the lower levels.

What’s in it for the colleges? Money, more than they are making now. Of course they would have to accept that they are a feeder for a profession, but isn’t that what education is all about (except for liberal arts majors)?
9:21 PM Jan 12th
 
jdw
The Pyramid section is very interesting. I do wonder if there are the cities / stadiums out there to support it. There are about 252 minor league teams at the moment, including the independents and excluding the Mexican League. This would be an expansion to 600 teams, assuming the indys are a part of it. That's a lot of cities, at a time where the exisiting cities first need to see improvement in viability with some of the items you suggest. Would you suggest rolling this out over a period of years / decades, first flatening out the current 1-1-1-1-1-1-1 into a 1-2-4:

A <-- AAA
B <-- AA & High A
C <-- Low A & Rookie & Short-Season Rookie & Int'l Dev Lg

Then as those leagues stabilize, build the D, redefine the C, etc.
8:02 PM Jan 12th
 
nhirschey
Great idea. It's hard to tell which 17 year old kids will make the majors, and this structure makes that much less of a problem (even the kids the scouts are low on get a chance).
7:58 PM Jan 12th
 
Robinsong
Bill -
I think that your pyramid observation is clearly correct. One could accomodate this in a variety of ways. A "small minors" solution would be to have multiple teams control players on the same team at the AAA (your new A) level (like winter ball or Arizona fall league). Each major league leam could have 1 B team, 2 C, and 3 D. This would dramatically reduce the cost of your proposal.
I also see a problem in getting the fan support you are hoping for. America had changed in many ways - including alternate forms of entertainment and easier transportation - since towns could support baseball teams. Legitimate competition and longer relationships with the players might attract some fans, but I don't think it would be enough to support 600 teams through whole seasons! America does not love a night at the park that much anymore.

I see some significant difficulties with other aspects of your proposal. The biggest might be objections from super prospects (the Jason Heywards and Steven Strasbourgs) to the 3-year requirement (similar to the objections that led to changes in the NBA draft to allow underclassmen and then any 19 year-old to be drafted).
6:40 PM Jan 12th
 
elricsi
A. Can't writing things like this get you fired?

B. How about 1-AAA, 2-AAA, 4-A (full season) and 8 short season to start with? (Some teams are sort of moving toward that with multiple short season teams.)

C. New York Penn League games draw pretty good crowds.

D. I would also suggest the AAA team could keep operating much like they do now to keep things sort of palatable for MLB teams, and to be a reasonable first step.
6:35 PM Jan 12th
 
FPITAGNO
as with every thing you write, i think its brilliant, but more importantly, what did theo think of it?
6:24 PM Jan 12th
 
 
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