Who should we start with: Nationals or Americans?
The Giants won last year. Let’s start with the National League.
Have you ever noticed how all of the guides go east to west? They switch the leagues, but they never switch the order of the divisions. East, then Central, then West. Why is that?
I don’t know. Maybe it’s a time zone thing.
They want to catch the early readers.
We should go west to east, then. Buck tradition.
Sure. We should start with the champs: the Gigantics of Saint Francis. Are they going to repeat?
They could. The Giants have Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, and Zito in the rotation, Wilson in the pen. Very good pitching.
Even with the pitching, they had to be one of the most unlikely teams to win the Series, right? Objectively, they were probably the worst of the eight playoff teams last year.
Right. But the new mantra is ‘pitching wins in the playoffs.’ It’s s a spin on that older axiom, ‘Baseball is 70% pitching.’
You know what’s interesting about expressions like that: they assume their own falseness. When you say something like, ‘pitching wins in the playoffs,’ you’re trying to communicate something that is not widely believed to be true. You’re admitting that you’re the prosecution: you have to prove it beyond reasonable doubt. And, of course, the statement is not true.
It’s not?
Of course not. At a very basic level, pitching cannot win a baseball game. Wins are not decided on the basis of quality of pitching. Wins are decided by who scores the most runs. The scoreboard does not tally strikeouts; it tallies runs. You can win games with lousy pitching, provided that your offense scores more runs than the other team. But you can’t win any games without scoring.
So what do people mean when they say that pitching wins playoffs?
They mean that it is better in a short series to have an average offense with dominant pitchers, than it is to have a good offense with mediocre arms. They’re just too lazy to say all of that.
Is it true?
It might be. Certainly, there is some evidence to suggest that it’s true.
Getting back to the Giants: the offense isn’t scary. Machine or no Machine.
Who is their best non-pitcher? Last year it was Aubrey Huff or that catcher. Posada? Pasteur?
Posey.
Buster Posey, right. He’s a talented player, but how many catchers are good both their freshman and sophomore years? Soto struggled during his second year. Mauer wasn’t a superstar. Going back: Nokes and Benito Santiago didn’t follow through. Roy Campanella was good and then not-so-good for a decade. Most catchers aren’t steady. I like Posey, but I’m not sure he’ll be better in 2011 than he was in 2010.
So who is their best offensive player?
With all due respect to the season Huff had, I think Sandoval will be their best hitter this year.
The Kung-Fu Panda?
I think he comes back, yes.
He was bad last year. How many at-bats did he get in the Series? Five?
Sure. But there were extenuating circumstances off the field. He’s young, and he can hit. There are two ways for his career to go: up or down. He’ll either be a star or he’ll bounce out of the National League in two years, and be out of baseball in five. I’m optimistic that it’ll be the former: I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins the batting title this year.
Is a rebounding Panda enough?
It could be. The Giants offense isn’t as bad as people think it is. Their starting pitchers threw a lot of innings last year, and I think there will be some regression there. But the Giants could certainly repeat.
That Belt kid looks like a real player.
Sure. The Giants could win the division, but I don’t think they’re the favorites.
Padres?
The Padres lost their best player during the offseason, which is not a good start. How often does a team maintain a high level of success after losing their best player?
Well…the Mariners did it every year for three years.
Right. But the Mariners had a bunch of other really great players. They lost Griffey, but they still had A-Rod and Edgar and Randy. They lost A-Rod and got Ichiro. The Padres didn’t have a lot of superstars surrounding Adrian.
The Padres jumped up by thirteen wins from 2009 to 2010.
And they’ll probably drop down at least that many games in 2011. I don’t expect them to contend. Which has always been the case with San Diego: they win one year and then fall off a cliff. That’s their team story: they ramp up for a title shot and then scale back. They made the World Series in 1998 and then fell to 76 wins in 1999, went downhill for six seasons. Same thing happened after 1984: they reached the World Series and then had four years out of contention.
Like boxers. Train up and then heal.
Like steroid users, too.
Let’s not go there. Stay focused.
They’re not perennial contenders, the Padres. They’re decadal contenders.
Obviously, the Diamondbacks are out.
Well…I have a soft spot for the Diamondbacks. They probably won’t win, but they’ve done a good job of repairing the bullpen, which was terrible in 2010. They have Kennedy and Hudson, who are fine pitchers, and Justin Upton and Chris Young and Kelly Johnson in the offense. I don’t think they’ll win, but stranger things have happened.
Like?
Orioles, 1989. That’s the comparable. Arizona is young, and they have some talent.
There isn’t a strong favorite in the division. It’s not like the National League East, where the Phillies are way out ahead of everyone else.
No. It’s an open division. Everyone has a shot.
Dodgers?
Well…I think it is really good that Don Mattingly is managing the Dodgers.
Mattingly! I thought I told you to trim those sideburns! Go home! You’re off the team!
Right. For some weird, magical reason, Joe Torre worked well with the Yankees, but he has been a bust everywhere else he’s managed. I don’t mean that to undermine those great years with the Yanks, but it was time to make a change in L.A.
They’re reluctant to make changes. What have they had, three managers over the last century?
More than that. Four?
You think the Dodgers are the favorites?
It’s them or Colorado. Very similar talents: some great pitchers, some fine young hitters. It comes down to who you like. Ubaldo or Kershaw? Chacin or Billingsly? Tulo or Ethier? Cargo or Kemp? Coors or whatever the hell beer they drink in Los Angeles?
They don’t drink beer in LA. Too many carbs. You have a soft spot for Colorado, don’t you?
Sure. Anyone who’s grown up participating in winter sports in the northeast is staggered by Colorado. A friend once described it as New Hampshire on steroids.
Stop bringing up steroids. You’re going to ruin the comments section.
Right. And no Shakespeare. We’re sticking to laser surgery and Milton.
So you’re taking the Rockies in the West? Based on….geographic preference?
No. I think the Dodgers will take the division. A lot of the Rockies had big years last year: Car-Go and Tulo and Ubaldo. I think they’re all fine players, but I think some of them will regress a bit. As for the Dodgers: none of their talented guys have had their big years yet. I think a few of them will in 2011.
So we have an order?
Sure: Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks.
* * *
Moving to the Central Division...the Brewers had a loud offseason.
Boy, didn’t they? Greinke in the National League is an exciting proposition. He loves to hit. Between him and Gallardo, the Brewers are going to get more offense from the pitchers’ spot than a lot of teams will get from shortstop.
You’re being factious, right?
The two of them will out-homer Elvis Andrus next year. He’s a shortstop, right?
So it’s go-for-broke time in Milwaukee?
People keep saying that. Fine, Prince Fielder is a free agent. But….so what? First, he’s not the kind of player that a middle-market team necessarily should invest in. And second: who else is going to bid heavy on Fielder? The Sox, Yankees, and Phillies have the position nailed down. That fellow Pujols is a free agent, and the Cubs haven’t been shy about wanting him in Wrigley. Plus, the Brewers have talent beyond Fielder: they have Braun and Weeks and Greinke and Marcum and Gallardo. They’ve got some players on that club.
Favorites?
Oh sure. Now that Wainwright is hurt, I’d say that the Brewers are the favorites to win the NL Central. Actually, I think they have the best chance to make the postseason in 2011, of all the NL teams.
Who will challenge them?
Well…not the Pirates, obviously. Andrew McCutchen will endure another anonymous season.
You like McCutchen.
I’ve seen McCutchen play exactly once in person. This was when I was living in Chicago. I spent the week leading up to the game telling the missus how much I was looking forward to seeing him.
How’d he do?
The Cubs literally could not get him out. He went six-for-six and stole a few bases. We snuck down to the good seats in the ninth inning, and he homered off whoever the Cubs brought in to stop the bleeding.He’s one of my very favorite players.
If he was Barry Bonds, it still wouldn’t be enough.
Well, the Pirates have talent. Alverez is a hitter, and Jose Tabata is a fun player. They have McCutchen and a few promising arms. The team plays in a beautiful ballpark, and it’s easy to buy a ticket. There are some positives.
Are the Pirates going to keep hitting McCutchen leadoff?
It’s like Bonds all over again: I remember when the Pirates had Barry hitting leadoff. For McCutchen, the Pirates had been slotting the pitcher in the 8th spot in the lineup, and hitting the #8 hitter in that last spot in the order. It’s a weird strategy, but it makes sense: McCutchen is their best player, and he’s a natural leadoff type. To take advantage, the Pirates have used a strategy that a) gives him the most number of at-bats, and b) gives him a better chance to drive in runs. As a rule, I like weird strategies. They’ve been hitting him in the 3-spot during spring training.
You mentioned the Cubs. How are they looking?
The Cubs…just a few points. First, I think it’s great they kept Quade. As much as I think Sandberg deserved a chance, you can’t argue with the results Quade got. The Cubs won a lot of games after Lou quit.
Second?
Second…the Cubs are just not that good. I mean, how many guys on that roster are going to have the best year of their career in 2011? Geovanny Soto and Castro, maybe. A couple of pitchers. That’s about it. Most of the team is on the decline. I don’t think the Cubs can win in 2011.
Houston isn’t talked about. Probably for good reason.
They won’t win. They’ll finish in fifth place. There’s not enough there. They could challenge the Pirates for last place. If you asked me to pick one team to be the General Manager of, I’d rather call the shots for Pittsburgh. They’re closer to getting out of the basement.
We have the two red teams left…the Reds and Cardinals.
You ever confuse those teams? I do it all the time. They’re both old teams with rich histories. They both play in medium-sized central cities. They both have red uniforms. The Reds had the Big Red Machine, which was the iconic team of the 1970’s. The Cards had the Gashouse Gang, which was the iconic team of the 1930’s. The Cards have Musial and Gibson and Pujols. The Reds have Morgan and Bench and Rose. They blend.
Well….try to separate them out. Make an effort.
The Reds improved by 13 games in 2010. It is likely that they will not hold that level of success. I think the Reds will decline a bit, but they are obviously stacked with talent. Votto and the young arms and Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs…they’re going to be making noise in the NL Central for a few years.
And the Cardinals?
Any team with Albert is a contender. But the Cardinals a) lost their best pitcher, and b) did not win the Central last year. That’s actually being kind: the team just about quit down the stretch. They ought to challenge for the division, but I’m not sure they get past Milwaukee.
Where does Albert go after the season?
The Caribbean? Paris? Land-diving in Vanuatu?
I mean team-wise. Where does he land?
The Cardinals should work out a deal with him. Otherwise, the Cubs.
Wise move?
I think it’s wise for the Cardinals to overpay to keep him in St. Louis. He matters that much to the team. As for the Cubs: signing Pujols would be a poor expenditure of money for that franchise.
So: Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Astros, Pirates.
Sure. Go beermakers.
* * *
Where are we at? The National League East.
The odds-makers in Las Vegas have the Phillies as an even bet to make the World Series.
That’s a terrible bet. Does that mean you can bet the opposite: even money that the Phillies won’t make the World Series?
They’re getting a lot of attention right now.
I don’t buy it. Here’s a fun prediction for you: the Phillies miss the playoffs.
Really? With that rotation?
The rotation is terrific. But…the rest of the team is a mess. Looking at the offense: the Phillies lost Jayson Werth, who was their best non-pitcher last year. Their best player, period, is Utley, who has a knee problem that might or might not require surgery. If he plays 145 games this year, I will look pretty stupid disparaging the Phillies. If he misses half the season, the team is going to struggle. Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins are no longer elite players…they sound like elite players, but they’re not. They weren’t last year, and I don’t think they will be great in 2011. Domonic Brown had a bone break in spring training, so he won’t take his spot in the outfield until at least June.
They have Halladay and Lee and Oswalt and Hamels.
And they have Brad Lidge closing out games. The Phillies are like a wedding cake: they lookpretty, but when you bite down the cake turns out to be stale and crumbly and not very good.
The Phillies are a wedding cake. You aren’t good with similes, are you?
What? I think it works.
If the Phillies are the wedding cake, who is the chocolate fountain in the NL East? Who is the best man’s toast?
We don’t need to carry the wedding theme any further.
Have the Nationals done enough? Are they going to win?
They had a weird offseason, didn’t they? They had an offseason that you’d expect from a team that just missed the playoffs: they had the offseason that the Padres should’ve had.
The Werth signing was odd…I don’t know who they were outbidding for him.
One of the interesting things about Werth’s contract is how it transformed the talk about him so suddenly. Prior to the contract, everyone talked about Werth as one of the most underappreciated players in baseball; the forgotten guy on a team of stars. Then he signs the deal and the talk flipped: suddenly he was overrated; suddenly he was getting too much and was too old. He went from being the kind of players that knowledgeable fans cite as unrecognized, to being the kind of player that everyone roots against. He went from Carlos Beltran to Alfonso Soriano, basically.
He’s still the same player.
Sure. He’s a good player. The Nationals overpaid for him, but he should be productive for the duration of the contract. His kindred spirit is Barry Zito. Zito is a solid pitcher: it’s not his fault the Giants paid him like he was going to be Sandy Koufax.
How about the team?
I don’t think they’re ready, yet. How old is that Bryce Harper fellow? Eighteen? I think it’ll be a few years before he and Strausburg help the Nats contend.
How about the Mets?
The Mets….they’re the Phillies without the arms: a lot of big names who aren’t as good as everyone thinks they should be. A while ago I thought that David Wright would be the first Met to win an MVP award…the clock is running out on him. He still could win an MVP, but he needs his team to contend again.
And Beltran. The clock is running out on him, too.
The clock is running on the team in general. When I think of the Mets and I think of black holes: there is a there is a moment when a spaceship in a black hole can no longer escape the black hole; when the spaceship will be sucked into the center and crushed to an ‘infinite density.’ At that point, it’s actually better for a spaceship to freefall into the center than try to fight out: the spaceship will have more time before they are crushed to that infinite density.
Okay…
I just have the sense that the Mets are a spaceship struggling to get free of something they can’t fight. They’re in the black hole: they might as well stop fighting and enjoy the trip.
A black hole? New Yorkers aren’t going to like that.
Just wait ‘til I get started on Jeter.
Who’s left?
Braves and Marlins, I think. And the Expos.
Right. I think that Raines kid is going to be something. Let’s start with the Marlins.
The Marlins will win the NL East.
Really?
Really. They’re a better team than the Phillies. They’ve got great young pitching and some good young hitters.
You realize that you’ve picked none of the teams in the NL to repeat from last year?
Well…the Phillies could win. I’m just not optimistic about their team. They have a lot of obvious strengths, and a lot of very glaring weaknesses. I like the Marlins better. I will probably be wrong.
You didn’t mention the Braves.
No. Not for any reason. They certainly could contend. Everyone who isn’t picking the Phillies is picking the Braves. They’ve got Hanson and Hudson and Jurrjens in the rotation; that Heyward kid and the young first baseman coming up. They lost Wagner, but they have two great arms in the bullpen. They’re going to win more than they lose, which means that they’re contenders. I think they’ll finish second.
So we have?
Marlins, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Nationals.
So we have the Marlins, Brewers, and Dodgers in the playoffs. Care to make a prediction for the Wild Card?
The second-place teams I have are the Braves, Cardinals, and Rockies. If I had to take one, I’d take the Braves.
No Phillies…you’re really risking your credibility.
If only I had any. I just think the Braves have more guys who will improve in 2011.
* * *
You want to pick award winners? We have a little space left.
That’s a crapshoot, isn’t it? Can I take two?
Sure.
Alright: the Cy Young Award will go to a Brewer: Greinke, Gallardo, or Marcum. Take your pick. I like Greinke: I think we’ll get the 2009 version of him. Even with the rib injury, I think he’ll be great in that division.
That’s three. How about the MVP?
The MVP usually comes from a winner. Let’s go with the shortstops: Hanley or Tulo.
Batting champ?
I think Panda will win the title. Or else...Pujols. Which would put him in contention for the Triple Crown.
He’s always in contention for the Triple Crown. It’s sort of surprising he hasn’t won it yet. Is he the favorite to lead in homeruns?
He’s a favorite…him and Prince and Votto and some others. I’d take Mike Stanton. The guy’s minor league record is staggering. He could top fifty this year, easy. Even in that ballpark.
Rookie of the Year?
I never know enough about this to get it right, but Brandon Belt sure looks promising. That’d give the Giants two-in-a-row.
Who will be representing the National League in the World Series?
The Brewers, of course. Pitching wins in the postseason.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.