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24 Players - May Musings

June 1, 2011
 
Buster Posey, Giants – Posey’s agent has drafted a letter to major league baseball about changing the rules regarding collisions at home plate. In light of the gruesome injuries to Posey and Carlos Santana, and the broader discussion about football and brain trauma, it’s a subject that needs debating.
 
It’s all well and good that Posey’s agent drafted a letter to major league baseball suggesting a rule change. But…why didn’t he write a letter to the Giants organization instead?
 
I’ve watched one episode of the HBO show Entourage. The show is about actors and agents…in the episode I saw, one of the characters is asked by a director do a stunt for the film he is in. The actor doesn’t want to do the stunt, but he doesn’t want to look soft in front of the director, either. So he asks his agent to tell the movie’s producers that he can’t do the stunt.
 
That’s what happened here: Posey’s agent is asking the producer. But…Posey or his agent could ask the Giants organization.
 
It’s not required that catchers block home plate with their bodies. It’s not required that they take the tackle. Catchers could practice fielding the throw and making a sweep tag…teams could train their catchers to do that.
 
There is almost certainly a cost to it: a catcher blocking home plate is more effective than a catcher who doesn’t. But…a catcher who stays healthy is more valuable than a catcher with a broken leg.
 
Major League Baseball could change the rule. Maybe…possibly they will. But teams that have catchers like Santana or Posey or Mauer or Montero don’t have to wait for Major League Baseball to act. Every major league team can decide that losing a catcher for a season isn’t worth a run at the plate. They can do that now. They don’t have to wait.
 
Brandon Belt, Giants - The Giants have scored fewer runs than any other team in the National League. That’s okay: someone has to finish last, and the Giants have pitchers that can keep them in the close games. What’s alarming is that the team seems utterly baffled as to why they can’t score runs. And they seem pretty reluctant to make the obvious changed that would allow them to score more runs.
 
Take Andres Torres: Torres is a better player than Aaron Rowand or Pat Burrell or Cody Ross. Torres has posted an OPS+ of 124 between 2009-2011, and he’s an excellent defender. He’s proven that is his real level of ability: there’s no aberration to his performance, nothing indicative that he’s anything less than the player he’s been. But Torres has played in just 20 games this year, half the games that Rowand or Burrell or Ross have played. How in the world does that make sense? He’s the best outfielder on the team, and he’s losing time to everyone else.
 
The Giants signed Miguel Tejada…I don’t know a thing about the Giants farm system, but they must have a middle infielder capable of producing more than Miguel Tejada. Tejada was a fine player for a very long time, but it’s obvious that he’s no longer great, or even good. Or passable. He isn’t hitting, and he isn’t fielding.
 
Belt is the third example…he’s absolutely ready to play in the major leagues. Yes, he struggled in the seventeen games he played in April. But there was no point sending him down in the minors: he’s almost certainly best hitter in the organization not on the DL. The Giants should have kept him in the lineup.
 
Bartolo Colon, Yankees – There are two ways to deal with change: adjust to it, or try like hell to fight it.
 
It’s come to light that Bartolo Colon’s resurgence has been aided, in part, by stem cells implanted in his arm. According to the New York Times, Colon used his own stem cells…one has to be grateful that the debate about the ethics of this surgery won’t tangent into a discussion about embryonic stem cells. We’ve dodged a bullet there.
 
To my mind, what Colon did is no more drastic than Tommy John surgery, which is no different than laser surgery, which is no different than players using steroids prior to baseball’s ban on steroids. It is a player using modern medical technology to be a better athlete.
 
The doctor who performed the surgery says that he has ten other pitchers who want the same surgery…frankly, I’m surprised that the list is so short. Maybe the list is crowded already by people who can’t use their arms or legs for anything…maybe the pitchers are on a wait-list behind people with spinal injuries. I hope so.
 
This is going away from baseball for a moment, so feel free to skip down…one of my weird interests is the strange fearthat technology causes. Maybe there’s a good reason for people to be afraid…probably, there’s a good reason to be nervous. Take nuclear weapons, for example…people are very afraid of nukes. There are good reasons to be afraid of nuclear weapons.
 
Since the end of the second World War, we’ve had six decades of worry about nuclear bombs going off, six decades of movies and television dramas and novels predicting how awful it’ll be when the buttons finally get pushed…and it hasn’t happened.
 
Maybe it hasn’t happened because we’re so afraid…maybe the movies and books have made us vigilant. Maybe that’s what did the trick.
 
But: it’s possible that technology isn’t as bad as we imagine it is.
 
Another angle on this…there’s a ‘futurist’ named Aubrey de Grey who is doing really fascinating stuff about life extension…if you are bored you should check him about because a) he is fascinating, and b) he has the greatest beard ever.
 
De Grey believes that there will come a time when we’ll be able to stop aging. This is not a wacky claim: he goes to great lengths to explain what he means by this, and what the science behind it is. He uses clear reasoning to ask and answer specific questions…and he’s reached the conclusion is that medical science will radically extend life expectancy. By ‘radical’ he means 500 years. 1000 years.
 
What’s been interesting to me is how people react to de Gray’s theories. My reaction to de Gray was, "I can’t wait to see what the Red Sox rotation will look like in 2637."
 
I thought that would be everyone’sreaction, but it isn’t everyone’s reaction. When I’ve told other people about De Grey, the common response has been a response of fear. People have responded by saying: "I don’t know that I’d want to live that long." People think about it a bit longer and say: "That would ruin the world." They cite overpopulation, a lack of resources, war. No natural death means lots more unnatural death.
 
Maybe they’re right…maybe it would be awful. What’s interesting to me is why people presume awfulness? Why, confronted with a possibility that will change our existence, do people react so negatively to that change. To the possibility of change?
 
The unknown can be bad…I think we forget that it can also be neutral. It can also be very good. Bartolo Colon is pitching in the major leagues. He used to be a great pitcherit’s been a long time, but he might be  great again. All things considered, that’s not so terrible. 
 
Jair Jurrjens, Braves – Jurrjens has had nine consecutive starts where he’s allowed two or fewer runs, and two or fewer walks. Only thirteen pitchers have had longer streaks than Jurrjens...those thirteen include Greg Maddux, Juan Marichel, Tom Seaver, Kevin Brown, Dutch Leonard, and Dan Haren. Greinke had a nine-game streak. So did Grover Cleveland Alexander. And Don Drysdale. He’s in good company.
 
The Braves have three extreme groundball pitchers: Hudson, Lowe, and Jurrjens. Then they have Hanson and Beachy...the gunners. It’s a great rotation…they’re battling the Phillies for claims on the best rotation in baseball. Certainly, the Braves starters have youth on their side.
 
Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies – Just a hunch…he’ll be the best pitcher in the National League during the second half.
 
Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks – The best non-pitcher on the Diamondbacks, according to WAR, is Ryan Roberts. The third baseman leads the team in batting average and on-base average, and is second in slugging percentage. The team’s best pitcher is Ian Kennedy, who has a 3.01 ERA on the season, and is 6-1.
 
One of the reasons it’s surprising to see the Diamondbacks in first place is there’s no obvious reason for them to be in first place. Justin Upton isn’t having an MVP season. Daniel Hudson doesn’t have a sub-2.00 (or sub-4.00) ERA. Chris Young’s on-base percentage is under .300. You look at the team and think: how are they in first?
 
The answer is the bullpen: the Diamondbacks went from having a really terrible bullpen last year, to having a really great bullpen this year. Last year the Diamondbacks relief pitchers tallied a 5.74 ERA…this year they’re at 3.33.
 
This was the plan: Ken Towers, who took over as the Diamondbacks GM last year, focused his off-season on improving the bullpen. His most significant moves were signing JJ Putz as a free agent, and traded TTO superstar Mark Reynolds to Baltimore for David Hernandez.
 
I didn’t expect it to work…I thought that trying to fix the bullpen of a 65-win team was like complaining about the band on the Titanic…there were more pressing concerns at hand.
 
Well…I was wrong. Putz (1.57 ERA) and Hernandez (1.85 ERA) have been fantastic, and the Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West.
 
I wonder if this is another ‘jay-walkers’ solution…you know what I’m talking about. Some years ago, the mayor of New York City decided to bust people on small crimes…jay walking, graffiti, honking horns, snoring loudly. The idea was that if a society is quick to address the small crimes, people will be less likely to do the big crimes. It’s a bottom-up strategy…it ought to be called trickle-up-economics, but it isn’t.
 
The Diamondbacks dealt with a small, staggeringly obvious problem…they addressed the problem with a great deal of force, with more force than I thought was necessary. And…they’re in first place because of it. It’s tough to argue the results.
 
Wilson Valdez, Phillies – I’m glad the Phillies have found a guy who can finish out games.
 
Cliff Lee, Phillies – Do you get the sense that Cliff Lee is just really bored?
 
 Lee allowed 0.8 walks per 9 innings pitched last year, the lowest mark since Carlos Silva’s outlandish 0.4 mark in 2005, and one of the very best control rates since they lowered the mounds in 1969. Lee dropped his walk rate by two-third last year…he just refused to walk people.
 
Having conquered the walk, Lee has turned his sights to getting punchados: he has 78 strikeouts in 66 innings pitched this year, a rate of 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. His previous high was 8.1, way back in 2004. Last year he was at 7.7/9 IP.
 
Plenty of pitchers learn to avoid the walks after they hit 30. Lee’s managed to reinvent himself twice since turning thirty…it’ll be interesting to see what he does next.
 
Carlos Beltran, Mets (For Now) – I thought Beltran had just about lost any chance of making the Hall of Fame. The lost half of 2009, followed by the dismal 2010…I thought his career was winding down. I was sad about it: Beltran’s my favorite player in the National League.
 
Well…he’s decidedly not done: he has an OPS of .930 on the year, which would be his best mark since his MVP-caliber performance of 2006. The speed has diminished: Beltran is one of the very best base stealers in history, but he’s not going to have another 25-for-28 season on the bases (2008). Or a 23-for-25 season (2007). Or a 41-for-45 season (2003). Or a 42-for-45 season (2004). Or a 31-for-32 season (2001). (Carlos Beltran is really good at stealing bases.) He’s shifted to right field, where he’s still an excellent defensive outfielder.
 
Some guy with the Mets organization recently criticized Beltran. This tactful gentleman argued that Beltran hasn’t been worth the money he’s been paid since joining the Mets.
 
Maybe no one has told this classy, winning fellow that the folks over at fangraphs.com have actually tried to measure value by dollars, but it’s worth noting that Beltran actually hasn’t been overpaid:
 
Year
WAR
WAR to Dollars
Salary
2005
2.7
$9.1
$11.6
2006
7.9
$29.1
$13.6
2007
5.5
$22.5
$13.6
2008
7.6
$34.3
$18.6
2009
3.0
$13.5
$18.6
2010
0.8
$3.2
$18.6
2011
2.0
$9.1
$18.6
Total
29.5
$120.8
$113.2
 
He’s been underpaid…by seven million dollars.
 
The problem is Beltran’s great seasons are balanced out by seasons lost to injury. He was an MVP-level player in 2006 and 2008 (and for half of 2009), and he played at an All-Star level in 2007. But those successes are balanced out by an unproductive 2005, and injury-plagued seasons in 2009 and 2010.
 
Beltran’s contract is back-weighted…there is a good chance that the contract will be too much…but just because it will be a bad contract doesn’t mean it’s been a bad contract. Beltran was twenty-nine years old during the first year of his contract, coming off an incredible season. Back in 2004, Beltran was a five-tool player with no major injury concerns…I don’t know that there was a better player to risk a long-term contract on than Beltran.
 
I hope Beltran gets traded. He deserves to go to an organization that will appreciate his talents while he still has them. And the Mets can find some other player (David Wright? Jose Reyes?) to pin the organization’s failures on.
 
Josh Beckett, Sawx– Beckett has a 1.69 ERA on the season, after posting a career-worst mark of 5.78 last year. What’s interesting is how similar Beckett’s rate stats are. He’s striking out 8.16 batters per nine innings, which is exactly what he did last year (8.18). His walk rate is down a bit – 2.81 from 3.17 – but it’s not a drastic difference. His homerun rate is significantly improved, but his fly-ball ratio is actually higher than it was last year. His BABIP is just .235…that will go up eventually.
 
That’s what the numbers say…but Beckett’s sure as hell looked like he’s figured something out. He looks confident on the mound: last year it was easy to forget that he was expected to be an ace…he’s pitching like an ace now. I hope he carries it through.
 
Evan Longoria, Rays – On April 10th, the Rays lost to the White Sox, 6-1. At that point in the season the team was 1-8. They had lost their best player, Evan Longoria, to the disabled list, and their designated bopper was retire-spended.
 
Most people jumped ship. On ESPN, around the blogosphere, just about everyone was counting the Rays out of the race. Too much had gone too wrong…they were sunk. Season over.
 
The Rays won twenty-two of their next twenty-nine games, a .759 winning percentage. They leapt to first place.
 
In the eleven games since that, the Rays have gone 3-8. It’s been a rollercoaster of a season so far.
 
Evan will be hitting leadoff for the Rays. He joins the likes of Dwight Evans and Brian Downing as a big-bopping leadoff hitter. Longoria has a bit more speed than Downing or Dewey.
 
Adrian Gonzalez, Superstar – Adrian hit .407 with runners in scoring position last year, an astonishing feat. He’s hitting just .394 with RISP this year, which is disappointing if you’re a Red Sox fan.
 
Adrian had an at-bat last week against CC Sabathia…Sabathia, as a few of you might be aware, is a decent enough left-handed pitcher. Just before to coming to the plate, Gonzalez told Francona that he was going to try an Ichiro-type swing on Sabathia…actually, the story that I heard was he asked permission to hit like Ichiro. Which was polite of him. Francona told him to do whatever the hell he wanted.
 
So Adrian went up and performed an amazing pantomime of Ichiro’s weird swing: he held his leg out and dangled it and swung his body through and fell towards first base…and he connected for a home run.
 
John Danks, White Sox – Nothing is going right for the White Sox. Nothing.
 
Adam Dunn is hitting under .200, .337 slugging percentage. Gordon Beckham, who I was optimistic about coming into the season, is hitting just .230 with little power. Alex Rios is off to a terrible start…average around .200, very little power. The team tried Thornton and then Sale in the closer spot, and both of them flopped…Sergio Santos is pitching effectively and Carlos Quentin is hitting, but it’s tough to be overly optimistic about the silver linings.
 
No one embodies this frustration more than John Danks, who is 0-8 on the season following a pummeling by the Toronto Blue Jays. Danks is a good pitcher: this is shaping up to be one of those aberrational seasons where a good pitcher looks really bad by the more tradition metrics of wins and ERA.
 
The White Sox are 9.5 games back…nine-and-a-half back of the Cleveland Indians (of course). They’re trailing the Tigers by three games, so it’s obviously not a lost season yet. I wouldn’t be surprised if the White Sox pass the Tigers (and the Royals) sometime soon…but I’m not confident that they’ll have enough to catch the Indians.
 
Cleveland is 31-18 right now…they have 113 games left on the season. If they win half those games…that’d get them to 86 wins…maybe that’s optimistic, but I doubt that it is. The Indians are a good team.
 
The White Sox have 108 games left on the season, and have won 24 games. For them to pass the Indians, they’d have to win 62 of their last 108, a .574 winning percentage. That’s a 93-win pace…notan impossible pace, as they won 88 games last year.
 
But that’s the limit for the White Sox…I don’t think they’ll play at better than a 93-win pace. If the Indians are anything more than a .500 club, they won’t be caught.
 
Mark Buehrle, White Sox – Buehrle was drafted in the 38th round in 1998…you watch him pitch and you think, "38th round…that sounds about right." His fastball ticks 85 or 86 miles an hour…change-up at 79. On his career, Buehrle’s whiffs five batters per nine innings, walks two. Nothing special. 38th round. He gives up as many hits a year as Ichiro collects…about 220, 230. He’s led the league in hits allowed four times.
 
And…he’s been one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball over the last decade. No one’s noticed. I hadn’t noticed. But he’s been really, oddly good.
 
Buehrle’s starting to climb the ranks. Among active starting pitchers, he’s fourth in career WAR, behind Halladay, Hudson, and Oswalt. He’s eleventh in career wins…and nine of the ten guys ahead of him are older than he is. His career is very similar to the career of Roy Oswalt, everything but the press clippings. Oswalt’s been underrated…Buehrle has been underrated-er.
 
Jeff Francouer, Royals– Have you ever noticed that Jeff Francouer does his best work at the beginning?
 
His first stint with the Braves was his best: he posted an .884 OPS in 70 games, wound up on the cover of Sports Illustrated. Atlanta gave him three full seasons to duplicate that.
 
Halfway through 2009 the Braves gave up, sending Francouer to the Mets. And Frenchy came alive: in seventy-five games he hit ten homeruns, posted an .836 OPS, and everyone in New York got excited about their great new right fielder. They gave him 124 games in 2010, and Frenchy reverted to the guy the Braves traded away, posting a .237/.293/.367 slash line.
 
So the Mets shipped him to Texas, where he had a .340 batting average over fifteen games, .848 OPS.
 
The Rangers were smart: they didn’t re-sign Francouer, because they knew they had gotten the best of him. Instead he was picked up by the Royals, in a move that was much-derided in, say, my own head.
 
Well, it’s worked out again: new team, red-hot Francouer. He’s had fifty games in KC, and has posted a .278/.330/.490 line. He has six steals in six attempts, and leads the team in homers.
 
The Royals should trade him now, ideally to a contender. He’s Cinderella and the clock is ticking towards midnight. If the Royals don’t act quickly, he’ll turn into a pumpkin.
 
I understand the Mariners are contending: they should acquire Francouer. Then, after fifty games, they should trade him to the Marlins, so that the Marlins can reap the benefits. It’s not too late for Francouer to have a Hall-of-Fame career: all it’ll take is getting the general managers to agree to an action plan. Frenchy gets fifty games and then a trade…
 
Albert Pujols, Cardinals– These are the top four teams in OPS+ in the National League, at this moment in time:
 
1. Cardinals – 122
2. Reds – 104
3. Brewers – 101
4. Mets – 99
 
The Cardinals are hitting well…they’re blowing away the rest of the league. You all know that a 100 OPS+ is an ‘average’ offense: the Cardinals have been so good that only two other teams (Reds, Brewers) qualify as average.
 
All this is happening despite Albert Pujols’ crummy season: if you thought Pujols would enter June with a lower on-base percentage than Ryan Theriot and Yadir Molina, come collect your prize.
 
I presume that Albert will turn it on over the last two-thirds of the season. I presume this because his track record is so staggeringly consistent that anything except a turn-around would be out-of-character for him.
 
I’ll say this, though: he probably won’t catch Gehrig. Larrapin’ Lou had twelve consecutive seasons of dominance, twelve years with an OPS+ of 150 or better. Albert is well below that…he is still likely to supplant Gehrig as the Greatest First Baseman of All-Time, but he couldn’t match Gehrig’s amazing run of 1926-1937.
 
Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
 
Hanley and Albert,,, those of you who play in fantasy leagues know that Albert and Hanley have been the consensus 1-2 picks in fantasy baseball for the last three years.
 
You have to pity those who had the 1-2 picks in their drafts this year, because the two top players have had extremely disappointing seasons. I had the third pick in my draft, and I am grateful that the guys who had the first and second picks went with the popular opinion.
 
I doubt either player will be the #1 pick in next years’ draft…Albert is getting old (and he might be in a new park), and Hanley will be coming off a year plagued by back problems.
 
Which begs the question: who is the new number one?
 
Short list: Bautista, Adrian, Braun, Tulo, Votto. 
 
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals – Lohse pitches for the Cardinals…he’s been in the major leagues since 2001, and has had a so-so career as a 4th/5th starter. His career ERA is 4.66…he strikes out 5.6 per 9 innings, walks 2.7. His career record is 94-100.
 
His career had been remarkable steady: sort of ho-hum and pedestrian. There are two exceptions to that ho-hum steadiness. In 2008 Lohse posted a terrific 15-6 mark, with a 3.78 ERA. That’s not especially out-of-the-ordinary…Lohse had a few years in Minnesota that were like his 2008 season.
 
But this year…this year, Lohse is dominating his opponents. He has a 2.06 ERA, and leads the NL with a .901 WHIP. He’s 6-2 on the year, and he’s cut his walk rate in half. Interesting season.
 
Jay Bruce, Reds – Bruce, who turned twenty-four years old in April, is having the breakout season that everyone expected him to have: he leads in the National League in home runs.
 
He’s twenty-four...I suppose it’s natural to presume that he’ll get better in the years to come. If he finishes this year with 35 homers and a .280 batting average, you wouldn’t count him out to hit 40 homeruns at some. Maybe .300. You might say he’s on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory…a kid that young, doing what he’s doing…that’s certainly significant.
 
I don’t know if it’s any of those are correct assumptions: I would not be surprised if 2011 is Bruce’s best season in the major leagues.
 
Bruce’s qualities as a hitter are obvious: he has tremendous power, to which he adds a solid batting average. Most of his extra-base hits are homeruns…he has 82 career homers, 71 doubles+triples. He walks about sixty times a year, strikes out a bit more than twice as often as he walks.
 
Players like Jay Bruce tend to be very good at a young age…we’ve come to accept that 26-28 is a player’s prime…my sense is that players like Bruce tend to peak a little bit earlier than that.
 
Looking at Bruce’s comparables…Willie Horton is number one: Horton’s best year was when he was twenty-five. His career was long, but it had a long tail.
 
Reggie Jackson is comparable to Bruce…Reggie’s best year was when he was twenty-three. He had a lot of other very good years, but he never got better than he was at 23. He was at his most patient at twenty-three…that’s really weird, but it’s true for Reggie.
 
Pete Incaviglia is third…same thing is true. Pete’s best year was his first (age 22) or his third (age 24). He never got better.
 
Barry Bonds is Bruce’s fourth comparable…the Reds would love to have Bruce have a career like Barry’s, but I’m told there are extenuating circumstances to Barry. I won’t believe it until someone shows me photos.
 
Fifth is Dick Kokos…I had never heard of Kokos…his best year was twenty-one, but World War II gets in the way of things. Curt Blefay is sixth: never heard of him, either, but the same thing hold true. Blefay was good at 21, 22, and 23…and then he fell off.
 
Adam Dunn is seventh...thank heaven it’s someone I’ve heard of. And: same thing. Dunn’s best season was at age 24: career highs across the board: doubles, homers, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. He’s been around those numbers ever since, but he’s never topped ‘em.
 
Jeff Burroughs is eighth on Bruce’s comparable list...Burroughs won his MVP at age 24, though he had another season at age-27 that was just as good. Harold Baines is at number 9: Baines’ best year was at Age 25…like Jackson and Horton, he stuck around for a long time after that, but he didn’t get better.
 
Number 10 is Darryl Strawberry…he’s the reason I went through the other nine, to get to him. Strawberry’s best year was at age twenty-five…he hit thirty-six homers, set career bests in on-base average and slugging percentage. Everyone thought Strawberry was going to be the player for the coming decade. He wasn’t: he had seen the best.
 
There are dozens of others guys like this: Jim Rice and Andre Dawson and Jose Canseco and Mike Greenwell…that’s just from my baseball card years. Dave Justice (I’m just guessing). Mondesi?
 
I like Jay Bruce: I think he’ll have a fine career, and I root for him. But we’re probably seeing the best of him right now. So enjoy it.
 
Erik Bedard, Mariners– In five April starts, Erik Bedard went 1-4, allowing a 5.96 ERA. Over 25.2 innings, Bedard struck out 20 batters, walked 11, and allowed seven home runs.
 
He’s made five starts in May…over the second month of the season, the Heavin’ Navanian has allowed a 1.38 ERA. Over 32.2 innings, he’s whiffed 32 batters, walked seven, and allowed just one homerun. He’s worth paying attention to.
 
Charlie Morton, Pirates – Morton pitches for the Pirates…I suppose that at least a few folks have never heard of him. He was 2-12 last year, posting a 7.57 ERA in 17 starts. You could say what Morton was doing last year wasn’t working.
 
He changed his approach during the offseason, adjusting to give his fastball more sink. Well…Morton has a 2.54 ERA over ten starts this year, with a 5-2 record. He has the first winning record of his career. You could say the new approach is working.
 
But…it isn’t. He’s striking out fewer hitters this year than he did last year, and he’s walking a lot more. His strikeouts-per-nine ratio has dropped from a reasonable 6.7 to 4.9, while his walk rate has risen from 2.9 to 3.8.
 
He has prevented the long-ball…he’s allowed just two homeruns this year, against fifteen last year (in just a few more innings). He’s throwing fewer wild pitches, hitting fewer batters…he’s avoiding some of his obvious pratfalls from last year, but his current walk and strikeout rates are probably unsustainable.
 
The Pirates are hoping that he’ll be another Halladay, another guy who comes through a year of early struggles to figure things out. I’ll start believing it if his strikeout rate creeps up to 6.5…I’m not buying it at 4.9.
 
Joakim Soria, Royals – If I were a GM, I’d move quickly. 
 
Objectively, Soria’s had a bad 4.2 innings. That’s it…four and two-thirds innings. The equivalent of one lousy start, one start where nothing was working.
 
It’s been bad, of course…in the span of a week, Soria’s lost three big games for the Royals, and nearly lost a fourth. He’s lost his command. He’s had some big meltdowns.
 
It doesn’t matter: he’s one of the best arms in the game. Four innings isn’t going to convince me otherwise.
 
Kyle Blanks, Padres – Blanks, a highly touted prospect for the Padres, who posted a staggering .868 OPS (137 OPS+) in a 54-game call-up in 2009, in currently hitting .301 for the Padres AA team. Meanwhile, the Padres are giving at-bats to Brad Hawpe and Ryan Ludwick, two men who will not be on the Padres when the team starts to win again.
 
The Padres are in a rebuilding mode…the loss of Adrian Gonzalez has them well out of the NL West race. Isn’t it time to see what they have in someone like Blanks? And shortstop, too: the Padres have Jason Bartlett at shortstop and Orlando Hudson at second…both men are on the wrong side of thirty, and neither of them are doing much to help the Padres win baseball games. Isn’t it time to see if Everth Cabrera is someone they can win with? Even if they won’t win now?
 
Same thing with Harang…Harang is having a nice year, but it’s smoke and mirrors and park effects. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up…he’s an okay pitcher, but he’s probably going to decline his option for $5 million next year and hope that he can get a multi-year deal. Why not give Wade LeBlanc a shot? LeBlanc was solid last year, and he was one of the best pitchers in spring training in 2011. Why not see what he can give you?
 
The Padres are rebuilding…but they’re not actually using the new bricks they bought. They’re trying to see if the old bricks will still work.
 
Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox – Ending things on a classy note…I have a random stack of papers filed away in a drawer in my office. I assume that most writers have a similar drawer: a place where they keep all of the notes they jot down in the middle of the night. It sure seemed like a good idea…maybe I’ll come back to it.
 
Anyway…I was rooting through that stack of random papers yesterday, and I came across a square of paper. Across the top was a title: "Youkilis’s Beard."
 
 I should say that the handwriting is not mine: first, it’s legible. Second: it’s the kind of cool handwriting that I wish I had: it’s sharp and clean and all sorts of awesome. Third: it’s a poem. I don’t write poetry.
 
I can’t remember who wrote it, but it has a date on it: February 6, 2008. I was living in Iowa City then; there are a lot of poets who live in Iowa City. I can’t speak to the quality of the poem, either: I thinkit’s pretty awesome, but that’s mostly because I can’t remember where it came from, or why it’s in my random stack of papers.
 
Anyway…I think the BJOL is a fitting place to publish it. Enjoy.
 
Youkilis’s Beard
 
Oft I am permitted to return to a Youkilis
As if it were a giant Jewish beard.
 
Yes, I say, looking at other beards
It is full and it is copious, but beard
oft not of this sort do scare small children
from their beds at night –
O! They cry, to the darkness in self-same night –
O! What fear is instilled by such tiny creatures
Conceived in a beard such as this!
 
I saw such a beard
and it were ‘pon, a cannibal!
Eating both men and baseballs it goes:
Youkilis’s beard, beard, beard.
 
David Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes questions, comments, and doggerel poems about iconic facial hair here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.
 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

jrickert
One correction. Dick Kokos went off to Korea, not WWII. The odd thing that I've noticed is that when he came back his speed appears to have completely disappeared.
regarding the stem cells/long life/etc. That's why I expect Cy Young's 511 victories record to fall. When 30 year careers are routine someone will top that. And as more efficient, effective repairs enter the game the number of complete games will rise as well. It's even possible that some century will see the return of the three (or two) starter rotation.
2:34 AM Jun 8th
 
ventboys
Buster Posey, Giants – I’ve been taught that blocking the plate is actually illegal according to the rules. Did they change the rules? Dave, you very well might be on to something here. Are catchers, and the managers that love them, catching on to the idea that the plate isn’t the first down marker? That one run isn’t worth the damage that comes from treating the plate like Helms’ Deep? Losing Buster might have been the canary moment that causes a paradigm shift in plate blocking strategy.

Brandon Belt, Giants – Pac Bell is an extreme pitchers’ park, so blaming their low run totals on the hitters and crediting their low runs allowed totals to the pitchers isn’t the most accurate assessment. You know this, of course, Dave, but that kind of media analysis still lives more than I would expect, even in the FIP generation. Giant/Mariner/Padre pitchers are all considered to be amazing, while the truly amazing pitchers in Colorado, Texas and Boston (well, some of them in Boston) will still fight the perception of weakness that their home parks create.

Belt? Oh, this was about Belt? The BJ analysis that comes to mind for me would be: What are the relative differences between matched sets of minor league hitting prospects when they come up in tough parks versus easy parks? Rizzo is coming up soon in San Diego, and of course Belt in SF. Freeman in Atlanta is in a neutral park. I see them as all fairly comparable. Who else? Hosmer, I think, is a better prospect than any of them, so he wouldn’t fit.

Bartolo Colon, Yankees – Fascinating stuff, Dave. The thing that I thought of, as an obvious societal benefit of living so much longer, is the pace of life, and life experience. We live 60, 70, 80 years, and by 80 we are doing well if we are still fully functional. Imagine just how educated and experienced we could get if we turned 40-50 adult years into even a hundtred. We wouldn’t learn twice as much. We would learn at an exponential pace, and we would have the capacity to dig into the sciences and mathematics in ways that are completely out of our current, mortal reach. I won’t belabor it here, but it seems to me that we would have plenty of people, given that amount of time to learn and figure things out, that could find us a way off the planet and off to places unknown. Hell, with lives that long we could get to the outer stars with the technology that we have now.

Jair Jurrjens, Braves – Don’t forget that bullpen. The Braves are a few games over .500 right now. I expect them to win over 60 percent of their games the rest of the year.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies – I won’t go that far, but he’s already showing signs that he’s getting back to his old self.

Ryan Roberts, Diamondbacks – Great piece. Of course, building a bullpen is more like building a stack in the World Series of Poker than setting up an attack in Chess.

Wilson Valdez, Phillies – What happened to Tug McGraw?

Cliff Lee, Phillies – If he’s getting bored, how about he spend some time learning how to quit giving up runs? He’s killing my fantasy team.

Carlos Beltran, Mets (For Now) – You should look around the dating sites, see if he’s available. Seriously, I totally agree with a bullet. Why would any hitter in their right mind sign with the Mets as they are set up right now? The park is horrible for hitters, and their management is out to lunch. You get to live in New York, but you also have to, well, live in New York. I’d rather sign with the Mariners. I’d rather sign with the Toledo Mud Hens.

Josh Beckett, Sawx–I believe, with no scientific proof, that a lot of pitchers have low era’s this year because of all the wet, cold weather. I wonder what the temperatures have been in Beckett’s starts so far? I’d peg him as his usual 3.50 self if he stays healthy, so the guess would be that he finishes up around 3.27, which was his era when he won 20 a couple of years ago.

Evan Longoria, Rays – I’ve never understood why Evan hasn’t changed his stance yet. He stands so upright that he isn’t really set to react to anything but what he is expecting, so he has to be a total guess hitter. The results aren’t coming, and he’s actually getting a little bit worse every time he comes to the plate, and it’s been going on for a couple of years. Common, my man, you have the quickest wrists around. Bend those knees. Maybe he’s been too busy winning American Idol to work on his game?

Adrian Gonzalez, Superstar – Dave, hands off. He’s mine, you slut. Go back to Carlos…..

John Danks, White Sox – I know how much you have to be rooting for the Indians now, with your bold prediction before the season, so I’ll root for them with you. My analytic mind tells me, though, that the Tigers are coming and they will blow past them by August at the latest. The White Sox have certainly had plenty of bad stuff happen, but let’s not forget about Konerko and Quentin as well as a couple of their pitchers. It hasn’t been all bad. Danks is looking more and more lost lately, and I have the feeling that this is going to be one of those Matt Keough seasons for him. I do expect him to recover and eventually be good again, probably when the slate is washed clean and he gets to start over.

Mark Buehrle, White Sox – The poster boy for the LAIM (league average inning muncher) type of lefty, except that he’s a brilliant defensive player that works so incredibly fast and gets the ball in play so often that his defense is always awake. I agree with your assessment completely.

Jeff Francouer, Royals– Dave, you ignorant slut. No, that’s not what I mean. Please, PLEASE don’t give the Mariners any ideas. We need a left fielder, but we don’t need Frenchy. He would hit .210 with no power in Safeco, hitting an endless series of po7 and po6’s.


Albert Pujols, Cardinals– This is year 11, and he’s suddenly hot as hell, so I believe that you might have to take this one back.

Hanley Ramirez, Marlins – I would say that the list for next year is already Joey Bats 1, A-Gone 2. As much as I love Tulo, the cat is hitting around .240 even after his hot start.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals – Dave Duncan, anyone? It’s amazing, isn’t it? He’s been doing this for nearly 30 years.

Jay Bruce, Reds – Dave, how did you manage to write over 600 words on Jay Bruce without even mentioning Larry Walker? I have to admit that you could be right, that this could be his peak, but I don’t want to believe it. He’s a little bit overrated defensively, he’s really not all that fast, and he strikes out a bit too much to be a high average hitter consistently. The power is legit, though, and his weaknesses are all small weaknesses. He will hit .300 once in awhile, I think, just because of his home park and the fact that he hits the ball hard so consistently when he hits it. What would be a good over/under for MVP candidate seasons in his career? I’d say 4.5.

Erik Bedard, Mariners– He’s looking very good, and very healthy right now. He reminds me of John Tudor when he’s on his game. When he’s off he throws way too many curves, but he is spotting his fastball really well now, and actually trusting it.

Charlie Morton, Pirates – This kid gets it, and he knows how to pitch. I expect that his K rate will go back up and his walk rate will go down, much like Halladay’s did, but let’s be real. He ain’t gonna be Halladay. Is he the new Kyle Lohse? Milt Wilcox?

Joakim Soria, Royals – He’s been one of my keepers in my local league for years, so I’ve been paying close attention. He isn’t getting any strikeouts, and when he gets hit its line-drives now instead of popups. He never used to get hit hard, even when he was struggling. I just dumped him this week. I think something is wrong with his arm and he’s not talking.

Kyle Blanks, Padres – Yaknow, the Pads do have some decent young players around, and you are on the money here. Blanks looks (or looked, it’s been awhile now) like a guy that could potentially be someone that could overcome that park and hit for big time power. He will have to play the outfield, though, because Rizzo is going to get the first base job in the next couple of weeks.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox – Dave, you could lose your Man card for something like that, but I won’t tell anyone. I’ll finish my long winded response with my own (half stolen) piece of poetry; something that I am selling on T-shirts in my new side business until Geico comes after me with tire irons:

“I’m so easy a Caveman can do me”

I’ll wear it, but it’ll cost you a hundred bucks.


2:13 AM Jun 4th
 
 
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