What do Cory Snyder, Alex Rios, Sonny Jackson, Wily Mo Pena, Jeff Francoeur, B. J. Upton, Zoilo Versalles, Claudell Washington, Omar Moreno, Mark Teahen and Khalil Greene have in common?

            Of course, those are all players who came to the majors with a "can’t miss" tag, had some early success, but went on to disappointing careers.    Here is something else they all had in common:  they all had very low Abe Lincoln Scores.

            What, you ask, is an Abe Lincoln Score—or if you didn’t ask, we will come to your house later and beat it out of you.  Suppose that we reduce everything that a player does to four categories—Home Runs (1), Walks and Hit Batsmen (2), Strikeouts (3) and Ball Put in Play (4).

            At this point I must pay tribute to those who have plowed this field before.  Rany Jazayerli, I believe, invented the concept of "Three True Outcomes" for a hitter; if it wasn’t Rany, maybe it was Keith Woolner.    Somebody over at Baseball Prospectus came up with this concept quite a while ago, and numerous writers there have written about it.   What I am about to do here is quite different from what they have done, or at least quite different from anything they have done that I have seen, but.  .there is a significant overlap of the concepts, and it would be wrong for me to proceed without acknowledging that. 

 

            Suppose that we reduced everything the player did to one of those four outcomes—HR, WHB, K, BIP.  How successfully could you evaluate a hitter or a pitcher, just based on those four categories?

            Quite successfully, it turns out.   My first thought here was, Suppose that we give a hitter zero points for a strikeout, one point for a ball in play—whether the ball in play results in a double play or a triple--two for a walk/hit by pitch, and three for a home run.   How well does that simple system line out the best hitters?

            Playing around with that for 20 minutes, it quickly becomes apparent that it under-values the home run by such a wide margin as to undermine the success of the stat.   So I changed it to four points for a homer, two for a walk/hit by pitch, one for a ball in play, zero for a strikeout—and that, it turns out, works really well.

            By that very simple process—four categories, approximate weights—the three greatest hitters of all time are the three greatest hitters of all time.   Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Barry Bonds have not only the highest career ratios ever, but all of the highest single-season ratios.    The highest-ranking season ever that wasn’t by Ruth, Williams or Mr. Steroids was by Lou Gehrig in 1936, which is the 16^th-ranked season.   Gehrig is also the fourth-ranked hitter from a career standpoint.  These are the top dozen hitters of all time, by this method:

 

	1	Ted Williams
	2	Barry Bonds
	3	Babe Ruth
	4	Lou Gehrig
	5	Albert Pujols
	6	Ralph Kiner
	7	Mel Ott
	8	Joe DiMaggio
	9	Mark McGwire
	10	Johnny Mize
	11	Stan Musial
	12	Frank Thomas

 

            That is, I think you might agree, not too bad a list of the greatest hitters of all time. . ..maybe you’d rather have Foxx than Mize and Mantle than Kiner, but this is quibbling; Foxx and Mantle are just around the corner.   It’s not like we had Horace Clarke and Larry Hisle on the top 12 list.

            Ted Williams hit 521 home runs in his career; that’s 2,084 points.

            He had 2,021 walks and was hit by the pitch 57 times; that’s 2,078 total, or 4,156 points.

            He put the ball in play 6,483 times; that 6,483 points.

            Add those three together, that makes 12,723 points in 9,791 plate appearances; that’s 1.299 points per plate appearance.   That’s the highest ratio ever.   Bonds is at 1.28, Ruth at 1.27; nobody else is real close.  

            The Baseball Prospectus guys have figured for years a "TTO%" or Three True Outcome Percentage, but the TTO% defines a type of hitter, rather than a quality; it thus ranks Dave Nicholson, Melvin Nieves and Rob Deer among the highest ever—along with Mark McGwire, yes, but not Musial or DiMaggio or Yogi Berra.    The TTO% asks, essentially, "How often does this player put the ball in play?", and then ranks as the top hitters those who rank lowest on that list.  

            The essential question that is posed by the Abe Lincoln score is "Does this player pay off his strikeouts with power and walks?"   By approaching the issue in that way, this formula ranks near the top guys like Musial, Berra and George Brett, who would never be anywhere near the top of the rankings in TTO%.    It’s similar, but. . ..it’s very different.

            One of the entry-level contentions in sabermetrics is that strikeouts are not really a big negative for a hitter.   Strikeouts are not generally a huge negative for a hitter because hitters who strike out, like Killebrew and Jim Thome and Mickey Mantle and Adam Dunn, are also players who hit a lot of home runs and draw a lot of walks.    If you strike out 150 times a year but draw 100 walks and hit 40 homers, the strikeouts are not a negative because they are a part of the package, and the package is a positive one.

            But strikeouts are certainly a negative (for a hitter) if the hitter doesn’t package them with walks and home runs.   What we are doing here—I think for the first time ever—is asking a very simple but extremely crucial question:   How well does this player pay off his strikeouts?

            Jim Thome, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle and Adam Dunn struck out (or strike out) a lot—but they pay off their strikeouts at a handsome rate:

 

	Player		HR	WHB	BIP	K	PA	Abe Lincoln Score
	Mickey Mantle		536	1746	5917	1710	9909	1.166
	Harmon Killebrew		573	1607	5952	1699	9831	1.165
	Jim Thome		595	1769	5136	2427	9927	1.114
	Adam Dunn		362	1111	3156	1745	6374	1.071

 

            Melvin Nieves, Dave Nicholson, Rob Deer and Wily Mo Pena are also power hitters and also strike out a lot—but they don’t pay off at nearly the same rate:

 

	Player		HR	WHB	BIP	K	PA	Abe Lincoln Score
	Melvin Nieves		63	153	693	483	1392	.899
	Dave Nicholson		61	226	801	573	1661	.901
	Wily Mo Pena		82	127	1019	538	1766	.907
	Rob Deer		230	607	2266	1409	4512	.975

 

 

            That’s a major difference between those two sets of players—even though both sets have very high "True Outcome Percentages". 

 

            I’m not going to try to tell you that the Abe Lincoln Score is the best way ever to evaluate a hitter.   We already have seven billion formulas for evaluating hitters, and they work quite well, thank you, and the Abe Lincoln Score isn’t going to displace them.   

            I will try to tell you, though, that this process asks a simple question in a simple way, and delivers a straightforward answer which is quite informative about the hitter (or, as we shall see, about a pitcher.)   I think that’s worth knowing.

 

What Does This Have to Do With Abe Lincoln?

            Four Score, you know.   It’s a score based on just four categories of performance. 

            I called it the Abe Lincoln Score first because of the Gettysburg Address pun, second because I was doing this research on the 4^th of July, and third because of the tie-in between "Honest Abe" and "True Outcomes".

            It’s not a great name.   A bad title will sink a good statistic, and it’s not a great title, but it’s what I’ve got.   I wanted to call it the True Outcome Success Score, but that’s confusing with the already-existing stat, so I can’t use that.

 

What is the Range of Normal Scores?

            One of the things that I like about the stat is that it is pretty consistent over a long period of time.   Look at the list of the 12 greatest hitters ever.   You’ve got hitters there from the 1920s (Ruth, Gehrig), 1930s (Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mize), 1940s (DiMaggio, Mize, Williams, Musial), 1950s (Williams, Musial, Kiner), 1980s (McGwire), 1990s (Frank Thomas, Bonds, McGwire), and the last decade (Bonds, Thomas, Pujols).  That’s about as good as you can do for representing every decade in just 12 players without making any period-based adjustments.

            The system is anchored at 1.000.   If a player simply puts the ball in play every time, never walks and never homers, but doesn’t strike out, either, that puts him at 1.000.   The norms, over time, have never gotten too far away from 1.000. 

 

 

What are the highest scores ever?

 

            The four highest scores ever were by Barry Bonds in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004—1.470, 1.583, 1.427 and 1.543.   

 

League Leaders?

 

            Throughout most of baseball history, a figure of 1.200 to 1.300 would lead the league.   These are the League Leaders since 1946:

 

YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1946	AL	Ted	Williams	514	142	176	37	8	38	123	156	44	.342	1.339
1946	NL	Stan	Musial	624	124	228	50	20	16	103	73	31	.365	1.132
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1947	AL	Ted	Williams	528	125	181	40	9	32	114	162	47	.343	1.307
1947	NL	Johnny	Mize	586	137	177	26	2	51	138	74	42	.302	1.285
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1948	AL	Ted	Williams	509	124	188	44	3	25	127	126	41	.369	1.255
1948	NL	Johnny	Mize	560	110	162	26	4	40	125	94	37	.289	1.275
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1949	AL	Ted	Williams	566	150	194	39	3	43	159	162	48	.343	1.336
1949	NL	Ralph	Kiner	549	116	170	19	5	54	127	117	61	.310	1.328
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1950	AL	Joe	DiMaggio	525	114	158	33	10	32	122	80	33	.301	1.238
1950	NL	Ralph	Kiner	547	112	149	21	6	47	118	122	79	.272	1.278
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1951	AL	Ted	Williams	531	109	169	28	4	30	126	144	45	.318	1.280
1951	NL	Ralph	Kiner	531	124	164	31	6	42	109	137	57	.309	1.310
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1952	AL	Yogi	Berra	534	97	146	17	1	30	98	66	24	.273	1.225
1952	NL	Ralph	Kiner	516	90	126	17	2	37	87	110	77	.244	1.239
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1953	AL	Al	Rosen	599	115	201	27	5	43	145	85	48	.336	1.247
1953	NL	Stan	Musial	593	127	200	53	9	30	113	105	32	.337	1.234
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1954	AL	Ted	Williams	386	93	133	23	1	29	89	136	32	.345	1.365
1954	NL	Ted	Kluszewski	573	104	187	28	3	49	141	78	35	.326	1.293
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1955	AL	Yogi	Berra	541	84	147	20	3	27	108	60	20	.272	1.208
1955	NL	Willie	Mays	580	123	185	18	13	51	127	79	60	.319	1.263
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1956	AL	Ted	Williams	400	71	138	28	2	24	82	102	39	.345	1.290
1956	NL	Ted	Kluszewski	517	91	156	14	1	35	102	49	31	.302	1.220
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1957	AL	Ted	Williams	420	96	163	28	1	38	87	119	43	.388	1.357
1957	NL	Stan	Musial	502	82	176	38	3	29	102	66	34	.351	1.209
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1958	AL	Ted	Williams	411	81	135	23	2	26	85	98	49	.328	1.253
1958	NL	Stan	Musial	472	64	159	35	2	17	62	72	26	.337	1.224
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1959	AL	Eddie	Yost	521	115	145	19	0	21	61	135	77	.278	1.197
1959	NL	Eddie	Mathews	594	118	182	16	8	46	114	80	71	.306	1.220
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1960	AL	Roger	Maris	499	98	141	18	7	39	112	70	65	.283	1.216
1960	NL	Frank	Robinson	464	86	138	33	6	31	83	82	67	.297	1.208
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1961	AL	Roger	Maris	590	132	159	16	4	61	142	94	67	.269	1.311
1961	NL	Frank	Robinson	545	117	176	32	7	37	124	71	64	.323	1.201
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1962	AL	Mickey	Mantle	377	96	121	15	1	30	89	122	78	.321	1.269
1962	NL	Willie	Mays	621	130	189	36	5	49	141	78	85	.304	1.204
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1963	AL	Harmon	Killebrew	515	88	133	18	0	45	96	72	105	.258	1.176
1963	NL	Hank	Aaron	631	121	201	29	4	44	130	78	94	.319	1.162
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1964	AL	Boog	Powell	424	74	123	17	0	39	99	76	91	.290	1.206
1964	NL	Willie	Mays	578	121	171	21	9	47	111	82	72	.296	1.229
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1965	AL	Norm	Cash	467	79	124	23	1	30	82	77	62	.266	1.197
1965	NL	Willie	Mays	558	118	177	21	3	52	112	76	71	.317	1.252
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1966	AL	Frank	Robinson	576	122	182	34	2	49	122	87	90	.316	1.226
1966	NL	Ron	Santo	561	93	175	21	8	30	94	95	78	.312	1.168
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1967	AL	Carl	Yastrzemski	579	112	189	31	4	44	121	91	69	.326	1.232
1967	NL	Tim	McCarver	471	68	139	26	3	14	69	54	32	.295	1.128
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1968	AL	Bill	Freehan	540	73	142	24	2	25	84	65	64	.263	1.157
1968	NL	Willie	McCovey	523	81	153	16	4	36	105	72	71	.293	1.188
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1969	AL	Harmon	Killebrew	555	106	153	20	2	49	140	145	84	.276	1.300
1969	NL	Willie	McCovey	491	101	157	26	2	45	126	121	66	.320	1.311
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1970	AL	Carl	Yastrzemski	566	125	186	29	0	40	102	128	66	.329	1.263
1970	NL	Willie	McCovey	495	98	143	39	2	39	126	137	75	.289	1.285
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1971	AL	Frank	Robinson	455	82	128	16	2	28	99	72	62	.281	1.189
1971	NL	Hank	Aaron	495	95	162	22	3	47	118	71	58	.327	1.305
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1972	AL	Mike	Epstein	455	63	123	18	2	26	70	68	68	.270	1.166
1972	NL	Hank	Aaron	449	75	119	10	0	34	77	92	55	.265	1.257
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1973	AL	John	Mayberry	510	87	142	20	2	26	100	122	79	.278	1.193
1973	NL	Hank	Aaron	392	84	118	12	1	40	96	68	51	.301	1.297
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1974	AL	Carl	Yastrzemski	515	93	155	25	2	15	79	104	48	.301	1.164
1974	NL	Joe	Morgan	512	107	150	31	3	22	67	120	69	.293	1.187
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1975	AL	John	Mayberry	554	95	161	38	1	34	106	119	73	.291	1.223
1975	NL	Joe	Morgan	498	107	163	27	6	17	94	132	52	.327	1.210
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1976	AL	Sal	Bando	550	75	132	18	2	27	84	76	74	.240	1.136
1976	NL	Joe	Morgan	472	113	151	30	5	27	111	114	41	.320	1.259
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1977	AL	Oscar	Gamble	408	75	121	22	2	31	83	54	54	.297	1.211
1977	NL	Reggie	Smith	488	104	150	27	4	32	87	104	76	.307	1.211
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1978	AL	Andre	Thornton	508	97	133	22	4	33	105	93	72	.262	1.204
1978	NL	Ted	Simmons	516	71	148	40	5	22	80	77	39	.287	1.177
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1979	AL	Fred	Lynn	531	116	177	42	1	39	122	82	79	.333	1.199
1979	NL	Mike	Schmidt	541	109	137	25	4	45	114	120	115	.253	1.212
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1980	AL	George	Brett	449	87	175	33	9	24	118	58	22	.390	1.212
1980	NL	Mike	Schmidt	548	104	157	25	8	48	121	89	119	.286	1.178
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1981	AL	John	Mayberry	290	34	72	6	1	17	43	44	45	.248	1.169
1981	NL	Mike	Schmidt	354	78	112	19	2	31	91	73	71	.316	1.228
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1982	AL	Andre	Thornton	589	90	161	26	1	32	116	109	81	.273	1.178
1982	NL	Gary	Carter	557	91	163	32	1	29	97	78	64	.293	1.164
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1983	AL	George	Brett	464	90	144	38	2	25	93	57	39	.310	1.179
1983	NL	Joe	Morgan	404	72	93	20	1	16	59	89	54	.230	1.173
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1984	AL	Andre	Thornton	587	91	159	26	0	33	99	91	79	.271	1.164
1984	NL	Graig	Nettles	395	56	90	11	1	20	65	58	55	.228	1.146
	Lg
YEAR	AL	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1985	NL	George	Brett	550	108	184	38	5	30	112	103	49	.335	1.221
1985		Pedro	Guerrero	487	99	156	22	2	33	87	83	68	.320	1.207
	Lg
YEAR	AL	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1986	NL	George	Brett	441	70	128	28	4	16	73	80	45	.290	1.164
1986		Mike	Schmidt	552	97	160	29	1	37	119	89	84	.290	1.187
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1987	AL	Kent	Hrbek	477	85	136	20	1	34	90	84	60	.285	1.223
1987	NL	Mike	Schmidt	522	88	153	28	0	35	113	83	80	.293	1.201
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1988	AL	Mike	Greenwell	590	86	192	39	8	22	119	87	38	.325	1.179
1988	NL	Darryl	Strawberry	543	101	146	27	3	39	101	85	127	.269	1.122
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1989	AL	Alvin	Davis	498	84	152	30	1	21	95	101	49	.305	1.198
1989	NL	Kevin	Mitchell	543	100	158	34	6	47	125	87	115	.291	1.181
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1990	AL	Rickey	Henderson	489	119	159	33	3	28	61	97	60	.325	1.210
1990	NL	Barry	Bonds	519	104	156	32	3	33	114	93	83	.301	1.180
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1991	AL	Lou	Whitaker	470	94	131	26	2	23	78	90	45	.279	1.203
1991	NL	Barry	Bonds	510	95	149	28	5	25	116	107	73	.292	1.178
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1992	AL	Mark	McGwire	467	87	125	22	0	42	104	90	105	.268	1.203
1992	NL	Barry	Bonds	473	109	147	36	5	34	103	127	69	.311	1.270
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1993	AL	Frank	Thomas	549	106	174	36	0	41	128	112	54	.317	1.271
1993	NL	Barry	Bonds	539	129	181	38	4	46	123	126	79	.336	1.277
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1994	AL	Frank	Thomas	399	106	141	34	1	38	101	109	61	.353	1.317
1994	NL	Barry	Bonds	391	89	122	18	1	37	81	74	43	.312	1.312
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1995	AL	Frank	Thomas	493	102	152	27	0	40	111	136	74	.308	1.291
1995	NL	Barry	Bonds	506	109	149	30	7	33	104	120	83	.294	1.222
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1996	AL	Mark	McGwire	423	104	132	21	0	52	113	116	112	.312	1.307
1996	NL	Gary	Sheffield	519	118	163	33	1	42	120	142	66	.314	1.313
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1997	AL	Frank	Thomas	530	110	184	35	0	35	125	109	69	.347	1.228
1997	NL	Barry	Bonds	532	123	155	26	5	40	101	145	87	.291	1.270
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1998	AL	Albert	Belle	609	113	200	48	2	49	152	81	84	.328	1.205
1998	NL	Mark	McGwire	509	130	152	21	0	70	147	162	155	.299	1.327
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
1999	AL	Rafael	Palmeiro	565	96	183	30	1	47	148	97	69	.324	1.255
1999	NL	Mark	McGwire	521	118	145	21	1	65	147	133	141	.278	1.286
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2000	AL	Jason	Giambi	510	108	170	29	1	43	137	137	96	.333	1.270
2000	NL	Barry	Bonds	480	129	147	28	4	49	106	117	77	.306	1.313
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2001	AL	Jason	Giambi	520	109	178	47	2	38	120	129	83	.342	1.258
2001	NL	Barry	Bonds	476	129	156	32	2	73	137	177	93	.328	1.470
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2002	AL	Jim	Thome	480	101	146	19	2	52	118	122	139	.304	1.235
2002	NL	Barry	Bonds	403	117	149	31	2	46	110	198	47	.370	1.583
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2003	AL	Jason	Giambi	535	97	134	25	0	41	107	129	140	.250	1.193
2003	NL	Barry	Bonds	390	111	133	22	1	45	90	148	58	.341	1.427
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2004	AL	Gary	Sheffield	573	117	166	30	1	36	121	92	83	.290	1.187
2004	NL	Barry	Bonds	373	129	135	27	3	45	101	232	41	.362	1.543
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2005	AL	Jason	Giambi	417	74	113	14	0	32	87	108	109	.271	1.209
2005	NL	Albert	Pujols	591	129	195	38	2	41	117	97	65	.330	1.234
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2006	AL	David	Ortiz	558	115	160	29	2	54	137	119	117	.287	1.245
2006	NL	Barry	Bonds	367	74	99	23	0	26	77	115	51	.270	1.365
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2007	AL	Alex	Rodriguez	583	143	183	31	0	54	156	95	120	.314	1.223
2007	NL	Barry	Bonds	340	75	94	14	0	28	66	132	54	.276	1.346
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2008	AL	Carlos	Quentin	480	96	138	26	1	36	100	66	80	.288	1.200
2008	NL	Albert	Pujols	524	100	187	44	0	37	116	104	54	.357	1.259
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2009	AL	Joe	Mauer	523	94	191	30	1	28	96	76	63	.365	1.163
2009	NL	Albert	Pujols	568	124	186	45	1	47	135	115	64	.327	1.287
YEAR	Lg	First	Last	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	Avg	Lincoln
2010	AL	Jose	Bautista	569	109	148	35	3	54	124	100	116	.260	1.228
2010	NL	Albert	Pujols	587	115	183	39	1	42	118	103	76	.312	1.224

 

            The essential question that I was trying to answer, when I began this research, was simply "If we reduced everything a hitter does to just four categories, putting all balls in play into one big ditch, would we still have meaningful evaluations of hitters, based just on those four categories?"

            That isn’t the essential question that I wound up answering; the essential question that I wound up answering is, for each hitter, "Does he pay off his strikeouts with production?"   But the question I started out trying to answer was "Can we evaluate hitters accurately based on just four outcomes, treating the difference between a single and a ground ball, a triple and a fly ball, as an accident of defensive positioning irrelevant to the hitter’s skill?"

            And the obvious answer is a resounding "Yes".   While there have been a few "surprise" leaders in this category, mostly in the 1967-1984 era, the vast majority of the players who lead the league in Abe Lincoln scores are great players.   In 1946, 1957 and 1958, the league leaders were Ted Williams and Stan Musial.   In 1962 they were Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays.   In 1971 they were Frank Robinson and Henry Aaron.   In 1980 and 1986 they were George Brett and Mike Schmidt.   In 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1997 they were Frank Thomas and Barry Bonds.   I am very surprised to see how accurately we can evaluate hitters, based really just on strikeouts, walks and home runs.  

 

            Since World War II, 37 of 130 players who have led the league in Abe Lincoln scores for hitters have been MVPs, or essentially 30%.    This actually understates how close the connection between the MVP Award and the Abe Lincoln stat is.

            In 1951 the American League MVP was Yogi Berra.   He didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score—but he finished second.

            In 1953 the National League MVP was Roy Campanella.   He didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score, at 1.231—but he missed by .003.   Stan Musial led, at 1.234.

            In 1954 the National League MVP was Willie Mays.   He didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score in 1954—but he did in 1955.

            In 1956, when Mickey Mantle had the Triple Crown season, he didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score—but he did finish second, behind Ted Williams.

            In 1957, when Mantle repeated as the MVP, he didn’t lead the league—but he did finish second again.

            In 1958, again, Ted Williams led the American League—but the MVP (Jackie Jensen) finished second.

            In 1957 Henry Aaron was the National League MVP.   He didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score—but he did finish second.

            In 1958 the National League MVP was Ernie Banks.   He didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score—but he did finish second.

            In 1959, again, Ernie Banks was the National League MVP.   He didn’t lead the league in Abe Lincoln score—but he did finish second.

            In 1960 the National League leader in the Abe Lincoln Score was Frank Robinson.   He didn’t win the MVP Award—but he did in 1961.

            There’s a very, very close connection between these two accomplishments.    The only player to win an MVP Award with an Abe Lincoln Score less than 1.000 was Zoilo Versalles in 1965.   And the worst player ever to have an MVP season?  Probably Zoilo Versalles in 1965. 

 

 

Have There Been Great Players Who Had Low Abe Lincoln Scores?

 

            There are very few examples in history of players who had low Abe Lincoln scores, but were good players.   The most clear-cut example is Lou Brock.   Brock had a career Abe Lincoln score of 0.958—the only Hall of Fame position player who is under 1.000, and he is a long way under 1.000.   The second-lowest is 1.015, by Roberto Clemente, then 1.018, by Rabbit Maranville, and 1.021, by Kirby Puckett.

            These are not high figures, but they’re not terribly low, either; Clemente was very low when he first came to the majors; he was actually last in the majors, among regular players, in 1955 and 1959.   But once he got his game together, became the Roberto Clemente that we remember today, he was above the league norm in ’61, ’63, and ’66, and in the top 30% of the league in ’68 and ’69.    Maranville was below the league average for most of his career; Puckett, like Clemente, was very low when he entered the league, but Puckett was average or above for most years from 1986 on.  Mazeroski’s scores were low, Tony Perez was not high, Luis Aparicio wasn’t high.  George Kelly was a little low, and Carew was not high.  Lloyd Waner and Pie Traynor were not high.  That’s about it, for Hall of Fame players with low Abe Lincoln scores; above them you have Ryne Sandberg, who was at the 9^th percentile as a rookie, but consistently around the 90^th percentile by the late 1980s.  

 

 

Have There Been Players Who Were Not Good Who Had High Abe Lincoln Scores?

            There have been players who were not extremely well-regarded by the baseball community who had very good Abe Lincoln Scores.    The 15^th, 16^th and 17^th highest career scores ever (excepting players who played just a few games) were by Charlie Keller, Al Rosen and Bill Joyce—short-term stars who were forced prematurely out of the game by injuries (Joyce is missing strikeout data for some seasons, which makes his number artificially high.)   Roy Cullenbine ranks on the all-time list right between Mickey Mantle and Harmon Killebrew; Cullenbine was forced prematurely out of the game because people just didn’t think he was very good.   Ferris Fain rates high; Rocky Colavito is a little ahead of Willie Mays.  Norm Cash is a half-inch ahead of Willie McCovey.

            The Abe Lincoln Score has no knowledge of speed, throwing arm, defensive position, or defects in the player’s game that limit playing time (Cash couldn’t hit lefties.   Norm Cash and Willie McCovey were contemporaries and were both left-handed power-hitting first baseman, but Cash was limited because he couldn’t hit lefties.)   Mays and Colavito are very similar in that they were both right-handed hitters whose strikeouts, walks, and home runs were of quite similar frequency.   Mays was a greater player because, since he could also run, he could also play outstanding defense, and he picked up enough leg hits to drive his average up 30 points.  Of course these things are also important. 

            The Abe Lincoln Score tends to measure, to an extent, how well the player understands hitting.    Thus, aging superstars like Williams, Musial, Aaron, Brett and Bonds continue to lead the league in the Abe Lincoln Score, even after they can no longer run or throw, and no longer represent any kind of asset in the field, because they still have a very thorough knowledge of the business of getting a pitch to hit and hitting it.    We can predict that six or seven years from now, when Pujols will be painfully slow and in and out of the lineup with injuries, he will still very probably have the best Abe Lincoln Score in the National League.

 

Alternative Stat Constructions

            When we say that a player "pays off" his strikeouts, by this construction, what that means essentially is that his total of Walks plus 3 times Homers is equal to his strikeouts.    If his homers times three, plus walks, plus hit batsmen are greater than his strikeouts, his Abe Lincoln Score will be over 1.000; if not, it will be under 1.000.

            We could, then, base the stat not on all plate appearances, but on strikeouts; Ted Williams would be not 12793 over 9791, but 3641 over 709, or 5 to 1; he pays off his strikeouts at a rate of 5 to 1.

            That would be a way to state the relationship, but the problem is that, stated as a proportion of strikeouts, the "best" hitter would be the one who has an exceptionally low base of strikeouts.    Joe Sewell would show up as a greater hitter than Babe Ruth, Nellie Fox greater than Mickey Mantle, and Juan Pierre better than Jose Canseco just because Sewell, Fox and Pierre are operating on such a low base of strikeouts.   Nellie Fox really just put the ball in play and took an occasional walk; he wasn’t "paying off" his strikeouts as much as avoiding them.    I think the construction I used is better. 

            Some of you reading this will think, "Well, that’s an interesting idea, but he’s got the values wrong.   If the strikeout is at zero and the ball in play is at 1.00, the walk shouldn’t be at 2.00, it should be at 2.18, and the home run shouldn’t be at 4.00, it should be at 5.42," or whatever the values are.

            You’re not wrong to think that; you’re not wrong to think that I skipped the stage of calculating what the ideal values would be, and just went with gut-level approximations.    If you want to take the stat in the other direction, it’s fine with me.    But..  ..I know what I’m doing in my own stubborn way.   Simple ideas have more power to influence how we think than precise calculations.   I thought it was better to keep the concept simple.  

 

 

 

Do Young Hitters Improve their Abe Lincoln Scores?

            Almost always, if they are going to have successful careers.   Often they improve dramatically.   Reggie Jackson was at the 16^th percentile in his first year in 1968, when he hit .250 with 29 homers but 171 strikeouts.   The next year he was at the 94^th percentile.   Jim Fregosi was at the 4^th percentile his first year in 1963; the next year he was at the 71^st percentile.  Rafael Furcal was at the 3^rd percentile his first year as a regular; two years later he was above average.   Andres Gallaraga was at the 2^nd percentile as a first-year regular; later he was as high as the 78^th percentile.   Nomar Garciaparra was at the 55^th percentile as a rookie; two years later he was in the top 10%.   Wayne Garrett was at the 2^nd percentile as a rookie in 1968; the next year he was at the 85^th percentile.  Derek Jeter was at the 13^th percentile among regulars as a rookie, but has been in the top half of the league most of his career.  Jason Giambi was at the 42^nd percentile as a rookie in 1996; later he regularly led the league.   Mickey Mantle was near the bottom of the league as a rookie in 1951 and was at the 27^th percentile in 1952, even though he was the top position player in the MVP voting, even then, as a 20-year-old.  Ten years later he was the MVP—and the league leader.

            The general rule is that young players improve their Abe Lincoln scores dramatically in their first three years.     There are exceptions going in all directions.  Indian Bob Johnson was at the 90^th percentile among regulars as a rookie in 1933.  Todd Helton was at the 90^th percentile as a rookie in 1998.  Lou Gehrig, Stan Musial, Rickey Henderson and Albert Pujols were in the top 20% as rookies.  Mel Ott had the best Abe Lincoln Score in the majors as a 20-year-old; Ted Williams and Shoeless Joe did so at age 22.   Some players start out at a pretty decent position, and go backward.  The dominant pattern is that young players improve rapidly.

 

The Worst Scores Ever

            The worst Abe Lincoln Score ever for a non-pitcher with 10 or more plate appearances was .200, by Nick Koback, an 18-year-old bonus baby catcher with the Pirates in 1954.

            The worst in 20 or more plate appearances was .400, by Dean Palmer in 1989.

            The worst in 40 or more plate appearances was .478, by Brian Bixler in 2009.

            The worst in 100 or more plate appearances was .673, by Frank Cox in 1884.

            The worst in 100 or more plate appearances since 1900 was .708, by Dave Duncan in 1967.   He decided to become a pitching coach.

            The worst in 150 or more plate appearances was .762, by Gorman Thomas in 1973.

            The worst in 200 or more plate appearances was .769, by Kimera Bartee in 1996.

            The worst in 400 or more plate appearances was .795, by Cito Gaston in 1969.  He decided to become a hitting coach.   Go figure. 

            The worst in 450 or more plate appearances was .796, by Benji Gil in 1995.

            In fairness to Cito, the next year he hit .318 with 29 homers, 93 RBI, improving his Abe Lincoln Score to .981, which put him at the 13^th percentile among major league regulars in 1970.  

            What usually happens to the player who has the worst Abe Lincoln Score in any season is that the next year he is not a regular.  Last year the ten worst in the majors were Trevor Crowe (.927), Adam LaRoche (.925), Franklin Gutierrez (.921), Chris Coghlan (.920), Ian Desmond (.920), Ivan Rodriguez (.912), Will Venable (.908), Miguel Olivo (.890), Ronny Cedeno (.886) and Austin Jackson (.842).   Let’s see. . .Crowe isn’t in the majors, LaRoche hasn’t played since May 21 and may have been released, Gutierrez is having another miserable year and is back in the minors, Coghlan hasn’t played since June 16 and may have been released, Desmond is still playing but having a horrific season (.218 with 3 homers), Ivan Rodriguez still plays some for Washington but is hitting about the same, Venable is hitting .247 with 2 homers, Olivo is hitting .219 for Seattle, Cedeno is hitting .252 (the highest average on this list), having about the same season he had last year, and Austin Jackson—second in the Rookie of the Year voting last year—is hitting .247 for Detroit.  

 

Observation or Argument

            Those of you over 40 will remember that when Barry Bonds first came to the majors, he was for several years thought to be a lesser version of his father.    Bobby Bonds—a fine player—was regarded as the second coming of Willie Mays in 1969, when, at the age of 23, he hit 32 homers and stole 45 bases, and in the following season hit .302, had 200 hits, scored 134 runs, and had 26 homers and 48 stolen bases.

            Barry Bonds, in his first four seasons in the majors, never drove in as many as 60 runs—48, as a rookie, then 59, 58, 58.  He was thought to be a good young player, but not the equal of his father.

            In retrospect, though, Bobby Bonds’ Abe Lincoln Score in 1970, when he scored 134 runs, was .957, which put him at the 7^th percentile among major league regulars.   He did improve later—to the 50^th percentile in 1971, and over the 50^th percentile from 1973 to 1979.   But Barry Bonds started at the 44^th percentile, moved to the 66^th and then, in his third season, to the 88^th percentile.    From very early in his career, then, Barry Bonds was paying off his strikeouts at a far greater level than his father ever did. 

 

 

Does the Abe Lincoln Score Have Predictive Significance?

 

            My strong instinct is that it does, but I couldn’t say that I’ve proven that.  

            Alex Rios is having what I think we could safely describe as a disappointing career.   A trim athlete who can run and throw, Rios signed a big contract after a couple of pretty decent seasons.   Rios had Abe Lincoln Scores, beginning in his rookie year, of .896, .927, 1.000, 1.042, .969, .979.   Those are bad numbers.    Even when he was perceived as good—as let’s say he was good, because of his speed and defense—but even when he was good, he wasn’t paying off his strikeouts.

            Jeff Francoeur in a half-season as a rookie hit .300 with 14 homers, 45 RBI, then .260 but with 29 and 103, then .293 with 19 and 105.   Those are good numbers, but with Abe Lincoln scores of .996, .981 and .964, he wasn’t paying off his strikeouts, and he wasn’t making progress.  

            Mark Teahen, in his four years as a regular or quasi-regular, was always in the bottom 6% of the league’s hitters in Abe Lincoln Score. 

            Still, as we have seen, many young players have abysmal Abe Lincoln scores, and go on to very good careers.    How could we know that Alex Rios wasn’t going to be another Clemente?  

            Well, but Clemente never had a bad Abe Lincoln Score when he was perceived as a good player; that’s a difference.   Just a rule of thumb, and maybe it won’t hold up to more analysis, but if a player’s Abe Lincoln Score is in the lowest 30% of the league in his third year as a regular, I think most of the time, you’ve got a problem.  

            Pete Rose was at the 33^rd percentile as a rookie and dropped to the 23^rd percentile the next year, but then he was at the 61^st percentile his third season.   Juan Samuel—also a rookie sensation, also a second baseman—had the lowest Abe Lincoln Score in baseball as a rookie in 1984, and was still last two years later.   His career unraveled very rapidly after that.

            Ryne Sandberg was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 1962, when he was at the 9^th percentile—but two years later, he was at the 44^th percentile, and headed up.  Bake McBride won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 1974 at the 44^th percentile—but his numbers headed down, down to the 23^rd percentile the next year, then 22^nd percentile in 1978, the 21^st percentile in 1979.  

            Tommy Helms won the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 1966 at the 55^th percentile—but the next year he was at the 19^th percentile, in his fourth year at the 10^th percentile.   My rule of thumb:  If you’re in the bottom 30% in your third year as a regular, I’m worried about you as a hitter. 

            The great value in sabermetrics, to teams, has been to enable them to spot unstable, and thus unsustainable, relationships.   If a pitcher goes 19-12 but with a 4.50 ERA, there’s an unsustainable relationship; he’s not really a 19-12 pitcher.   If a pitcher has a 2.80 ERA but a 5-4 strikeout/walk ratio, there’s an unsustainable relationship; he’s not really good enough to post a 2.80 ERA.   If a team scores 350 runs and allows 375 but is 48-41 at the All-Star break, that’s an unsustainable relationship; the team is not really that good.  If a player hits .320 because he has a .395 batting average when the ball is in play, there’s an unsustainable relationship; he’s not really a .320 hitter.   Basically, everybody in baseball now knows these things, and accepts that they are true.

            I had the thought, then, that we might look at the relationship between a hitter’s Abe Lincoln Score and his overall productivity, to find the hitters who were "pretenders".   Do you see what’s wrong with that idea?

            The players who have good years despite not particularly good Abe Lincoln Scores are players who are fast, in the middle of good lineups, in hitters’ parks, and have high ball-in-play batting averages.   Looking at that relationship, then, merely tells us things that we already know.   We already know who has a high ball-in-play batting average and won’t be able to sustain it; there’s no point in looking for that again.

            But in looking for deceptive ball-in-play batting averages, what we are looking at, in essence, is a photo-negative of the player’s skills.   We are looking for what isn’t real.    In Abe Lincoln Scores, we’re looking at the player’s actual, underlying skills, but we’re looking directly at them, rather than looking at them in a negative image.

            The real value of the Abe Lincoln score is that it measures directly what we were before measuring only indirectly, through looking at the Ball-in-Play batting averages.   In a sense—not seriously suggesting that we start ignoring batting averages with the ball in play—but in a sense, we no longer need it.    By looking at the player’s true hitting skills in this way, we can skip the intervening stage of factoring in and factoring out the player’s ball in play batting average.   That’s the real value of this method. 

            And, to close on an up note, let me make a prediction for you, based on this method.   Carlos Quentin.   Carlos Quentin will one day win an MVP Award.  

            In 1964 Boog Powell, then 22 years old, had the highest Abe Lincoln Score in the American League.   The next year he had an injury of some kind, had a good year in 1966 but a terrible year in ’67, a not-very-good year in 1968.   In 1969 he could have been the American League’s MVP, and in 1970 he was.

            The Abe Lincoln Score has served as a predictor of the MVP Award many times.   Frank Robinson had the highest Abe Lincoln Score in the National League in 1960, won his first MVP Award the next year.   Harmon Killebrew had the highest score in the American League in 1963, won the MVP in 1969, Powell had the highest in 1964, won the MVP in 1970, Willie McCovey had the highest score in the National League in 1968, won the MVP in 1969, Joe Morgan had the highest score in 1974, won the MVP in 1975-1976, Mike Schmidt had the highest score in 1979, won the MVP in 1980-1981.   Jose Bautista had the highest Abe Lincoln Score in the American League last year, and may win the MVP Award this year.  

            Carlos Quentin, then 25 years old, had the highest Abe Lincoln Score in the American League in 2008, was injured in the second half of that season, and—like Boog Powell in the 1960s--has battled since then to get back to where he was.  Still, Quentin pays off his strikeouts at a 2-to-1 level, which says to me that this is a special hitter, and that eventually, that ability is going to manifest itself in an MVP season.