Thought for the Day

            Is it just me, or is the eye patch at this point about the only thing that separates Bruce Bochy from Rooster Cogburn?

Thought for Tomorrow

            I love that Taco Bell commercial which has people from all over the world reacting to the size of the big American whatever it is, burrito or something.   What I love about it is that they didn’t go to the trouble of finding an actual British actor; they just told some American guy to say "Blimey".

Abe Lincoln Scores for Pitchers

A couple of weeks ago we introduced here something called Abe Lincoln Scores for hitters.  You can read that article or not, but anyway I am not going to explain the method again; it’s the same for pitchers that it is for hitters.   As a hitter succeeds when he posts a high Abe Lincoln Score, a pitcher succeeds—or actually, a pitcher exhibits skills that should lead to success—when he posts a low Abe Lincoln Score.

And, as you might guess, it is certainly and obviously true that the Abe Lincoln Score for pitchers correlates at a very high level with other measures of success.   This fact is perhaps less interesting than the same observation with regard to hitters, because this type of observation has been made before with pitchers, in a form more nearly paralleling what we are doing now.   The Abe Lincoln Score for pitchers can be not inaccurately described as a variation of DIPS.  

Also, you may remember that on this site a few weeks ago, I had a disagreement with Tom Tango about the relative weights of strikeouts and walks.    The structure of the Abe Lincoln Score implicitly assumes that Tango was correct in that disagreement; in other words, it implicitly endorses Tango’s argument, and rejects my own.   This wasn’t deliberate; it was just easy.   To endorse my own position in that dispute, I’d have to set the value of a strikeout at about 1.75, rather than 2. 

Because I decided not to do that, the Abe Lincoln Score likes power pitchers, and probably overrates power pitchers a little bit.   In 1956, the first Cy Young vote, the Cy Young Award went to Don Newcombe, who didn’t strike out many but walked only 46 batters in 268 innings.    The Abe Lincoln score likes better Herb Score, who walked 129 batters in 249 innings, but struck out 263.   In 1957 Sandy Koufax finished just 5-4 with a 3.89 ERA—but, because he struck out 122 batters in 104 innings, actually had the lowest Abe Lincoln Score in the major leagues.   The Abe Lincoln score loves Sam McDowell, Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson and JR Richard because they struck out so many.

I have figured Abe Lincoln Scores for every pitcher in major league history.   At this point I have the potential to waste a great deal of your time (and mine) recounting this data in the following form:

In 1923 the American League Cy Young Award would almost certainly have gone to George Uhle, who finished 26-16 for Cleveland.   However, the Abe Lincoln Score prefers Urban Shocker, 20-12 for St. Louis.   Uhle and Shocker struck out 109 batters apiece, but Shocker walked less than half as many as Uhle (49 to 102).   In the American League in 1923 there were 500 more walks than strikeouts, so Shocker’s 109-49 strikeout/walk ratio, better than two to one, is pretty phenomenal for that era.  

The system generally likes the same pitchers who are put forward by traditional methods—but occasionally doesn’t; this is what keeps it interesting.   Since the Abe Lincoln Scores—or DIPS—pay no attention to Wins, Losses and ERA, they can and occasionally do advocate on behalf of pitchers whose Wins, Losses and ERA are not all that good.   Generally, this just results in stirring the pot among the league’s best pitchers.   In 1969, for example, the Cy Young Award went to Tom Seaver, because he went 25-7 with a 2.21 ERA.   The Abe Lincoln Score, modified into a Cy Young Predictor, says that Seaver was merely the 15^th-best pitcher in the league in 1969, behind such notables as Bob Veale and Don Sutton, both of whom had losing records and ERAs a run higher than Seaver’s.   But then the Abe Lincoln Score says that Seaver was actually the best pitcher in the league in 1971, when the Cy Young Award went to Ferguson Jenkins, and in 1976, when Seaver finished just 14-11, as well as in 1973 and 1975, when Seaver did win the award.   Seaver won three Cy Young Awards and Abe Lincoln thinks he should have won four, but doesn’t think that 1969 was one of them.  In 1969, Abe Lincoln votes for Bob Gibson.

This happens a lot.   Abe Lincoln thinks that Dean Chance shouldn’t have won the Cy Young Award in 1964, when he actually did, but then thinks that he should have won the Award in 1967, when he didn’t.   Abe Lincoln thinks that Bruce Sutter should not have won the Cy Young Award in 1979, when he actually did win it, but thinks that he should have won it in 1977, when he didn’t.  Steve Carlton won the Cy Young Award in 1980 and 1982; Abe Lincoln concurs, but thinks that he should have won in 1981 and 1983 as well, even though he had a losing record in 1983. 

Abe Lincoln thinks that David Cone (20-3, 2.22 ERA) should have won the Award in 1988, when he didn’t, but thinks that he shouldn’t have won in 1994, when he did.  Abe Lincoln thinks that Randy Johnson should have won in 1994, over Cone, and also that he should have won in 1998, when the award went to Roger Clemens, and in 2004, when the Award went to Clemens again; Roger Clemens stole the award from Johnson in both leagues.  But then Abe Lincoln thinks that Johnson shouldn’t have won the Award in 2002—it should have gone to Schilling—and that Roger Clemens should have won the Award in 1988, when it actually went to Frank Viola, and, most remarkably, in 1996.   In 1996 Roger Clemens finished just 10-13 with a 3.63 ERA and was publicly derided by his General Manager, who let him get away from the Red Sox—but was still the best pitcher in the American League in terms of strikeouts, walks, and home runs not allowed.

Abe Lincoln’s Cy Young Formula

In 1996 Roger Clemens’ Abe Lincoln Score was .935, which is outstanding, but then, Kevin Appier was also at .935, Troy Percival was at .852, which is better, and Mariano Rivera—not yet a closer—was at .786.   Why, then, do we say that Abe Lincoln would have voted for Clemens?

We can’t just say that the lowest Abe Lincoln Score represents the Cy Young Award, because very often the lowest Abe Lincoln Score belongs to some pitcher who pitched 51 innings—or, if you draw the line at 100 innings, to some pitcher who pitched 103 innings, or if you draw the line at 200 innings, to some pitcher who pitched 202 innings.  In order to make the Abe Lincoln Score into a Cy Young predictor, we have need to combine the Innings Pitched and Abe Lincoln Score into one number.   How do we do that?

Since the Abe Lincoln Scores of Cy Young candidates are almost always under 1.00, my first thought was to multiply each pitcher’s innings pitched by (1.00 minus the Abe Lincoln score.)   This doesn’t quite work, however, because most of the league is over 1.00; occasionally even a Cy Young candidate will be over 1.00.    A 1.000 Abe Lincoln score is a standard of excellence; you don’t measure value by comparing it to excellence.    You can compare the player to the average; you can compare him to the replacement level, but, as most of you probably know, you don’t derive value by comparing a player to a standard of excellence.

I substituted 1.100 for 1.000; 1.100 is roughly a replacement level.   A few pitchers each year will be over 1.100; most will be under.   I multiplied each pitcher’s innings pitched by (1.100 minus the Abe Lincoln Score.)

This was better, but it still didn’t work because it dismissed all relievers as Cy Young candidates.   I needed some sort of a "Leverage Index" to put the relievers back in the ballgame.    I use the term "FIP" for "Fractional Innings Pitched" or thirds of an inning pitched, so my first try at a Leverage Index was:

FIP + 9 * Saves

-------------------

          FIP

This, however, was an over-adjustment, since it led to relievers almost automatically winning the Cy Young Award, every year.    I modified it, then, to:

FIP + 7 * Saves

-------------------

          FIP

And this worked; this formula tends to show the actual Cy Young Award winner as the Cy Young Award winner (ABE is "Abe Lincoln Score"; I didn’t want to use "ALS" for obvious reasons):

(1.100 – ABE) * IP  * (FIP + 7 * Saves) / FIP

Re-Zults

To keep this from reaching book length we will start by eliminating the 19^th century, noting only that, in the 1890s disagreements among advocates for Amos Rusie, Kid Nichols and Cy Young, most of my systems of analysis would rate them 1. Kid Nichols, 2.  Cy Young, 3. Amos Rusie, but the Abe Lincoln Score, because it likes strikeouts, reverses the order and generally rates them 1. Rusie, 2. Young, 3. Nichols.   

Next we will virtually eliminate comment on seasons of non-disputes.   Since the Season Score for pitchers is an excellent predictor of the Cy Young voting, we can reasonably pretend that we know who would have won the Cy Young Award in 1917 or 1941, even though there was no actual award.   If the pitcher who won the Award or would have won the Award is the same as the pitcher who Abe Lincoln thinks should have won the Award, we’ll just give his name and record and move on.

Then we’ll limit our comments in the "petty" disputes among pitchers who everybody would agree were the dominant pitchers of their era, but who might be ranked a little differently in one season than another—the Tom Seaver/Steve Carlton/Randy Johnson/Roger Clemens type disagreements.   Sometimes we’ll just mention their names with a slash to indicate there is a disagreement about which one was best in that particular season, and then we’ll move on.

OK, then, this is a summary of who Abe Lincoln would have voted for in the Cy Young race, going back to 1900:

National League, 1900

            Had there been a National League Cy Young Award in 1900, it would quite certainly have gone to Joe McGinnity, 28-8 with a 2.94 ERA for Brooklyn.    However, since McGinnity’s strikeout/walk ratio was just 93-113, Abe Lincoln regards him as merely the 17^th best pitcher in the eight-team league, and would have given the Cy Young Award to:  Cy Young.   Young was just 19-19 with a  3.00 ERA for Boston—but still scores as the league’s best pitcher based on the bedrock data of strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.

            This, however, may be unfair to McGinnity.  Since Joe McGinnity was (basically) an under-hand pitcher who threw hard, he probably had a quite exceptional ground ball rate, and this may have offset some of his apparent negatives.  (McGinnity switched between overhand and underhand deliveries, but probably threw underhanded more often than over.)

National League, 1901

            Had there been a Cy Young Award for the NL in 1901, it would have resulted in an extremely close vote among Noodles Hahn, Wild Bill Donovan, Jack Chesbro, Al Orth and Deacon Phillippe, all of whom have similar won-lost records and similar ERAs.   Forced to choose, however, I think that Phillippe might have won the Award, while Abe Lincoln would have voted for Noodles Hahn (22-19, but with a league-leading 239 strikeouts, and very good control as well.)

American League, 1901-1902

            Cy Young, by any standard and any approach. 

National League, 1902

            Again, had there been a National League Cy Young Award in 1902, it would have resulted in a close and unpredictable vote involving Vic Willis (27-20), Noodles Hahn (23-12), Togie Pittenger (27-16), Jack Chesbro (28-6), and Jack Taylor (23-11 with a  league-leading 1.33 ERA.)   I think that Chesbro most likely won have won the Award—but Abe Lincoln would have voted for Vic Willis.

National League, 1903

            Christy Mathewson  (30-13, 2.26 ERA)

American League, 1903

            Cy Young/Rube Waddell.   Cy Young is listed first because he quite certainly would have won the Cy Young Award; Rube Waddell is listed second because his Abe Lincoln Score is better in that particular season.   Since Young and Waddell are both already widely acknowledged as great pitchers, it matters little which of them would have won what award in which season.

National League, 1904

            Joe McGinnity/Christy Mathewson 

American League, 1904

            Jack Chesbro/Rube Waddell.  Chesbro would obviously have won the Award based on his 41-12 won-lost record.   Waddell had a hundred more strikeouts, and basically the same number of walks.

National League, 1905

            Christy Mathewson (31-9, 1.28 ERA)

American League, 1905

            Rube Waddell (27-10, 1.48 ERA)

National League, 1906

            Three Finger Brown (26-6, 1.04 ERA)

American League, 1906

            Had there been a Cy Young Award at this time, it would probably have been won by the Curveless Wonder, Al Orth (27-17, 2.34 ERA) or possibly by Addie Joss (21-9, 1.72).   The best underlying data, however, belonged to Ed Walsh—just 17-13, but with the league’s best Abe Lincoln Score. 

National League, 1907

            Christy Mathewson (24-12, 2.00 ERA)

American League, 1907

            Ed Walsh (24-18, 1.60 ERA)

National League, 1908

            Christy Mathewson (37-11, 1.43 ERA)

American League, 1908

            Ed Walsh (40-15, 1.42 ERA)

National League, 1909

            Three Finger Brown (27-9, 1.31 ERA)

American League, 1909

            Frank Smith (25-17, 1.80).   There is a very real chance that George Mullin might have won the Cy Young Award because his won-lost record is much better (29-8); Smith, however, has both the highest Season Score and the Lowest Abe Lincoln Score. 

 National League, 1910

            Christy Mathewson (27-9, 1.90 ERA)

American League, 1910

            The Cy Young Award would have gone to Colby Jack Coombs, 31-9 with a 1.30 ERA.    Walter Johnson, however, had vastly better underlying data with the 7^th-place Senators—almost a hundred more strikeouts, many fewer walks.  The Big Train finished 25-17 with a 1.36 ERA.

National League, 1911

            Pete Alexander (28-13, 2.57 ERA).

American League, 1911

            Ed Walsh (27-18, 2.22 ERA).  

National League, 1912

            Christy Mathewson (23-12, 2.57 ERA).  

American League, 1912

            The American League Cy Young (or best-pitcher) contest of 1912 would be one of the most interesting ever, between Smokey Joe Wood (34-5, 1.91 ERA) and Walter Johnson (33-12, 1.39).    Both pitchers had very long winning streaks, and, of course, they had a famous duel late in the season, which is among the most often-written-about games of the era.

            Many fans, I think, would assume that Smokey Joe would have won the Cy Young Award, due to his fantastic won-lost record, but Johnson’s Season Score was higher (561-530), and, in fact, Johnson did finish ahead of Wood in the Most Valuable Player (Chalmers Award) voting.    Johnson finished third in that voting, Wood fifth—but what is more interesting is that Ed Walsh finished ahead of both of them.    Walsh, the league’s best pitcher in 1911, had almost the same record in 1912 as in 1911 (27-17, 2.15 ERA). 

            When I was a young man won-lost records for a pitcher were everything, the true and dominant stat in the eyes of reporters.  We tend to project that attitude backward in time without limit.   In reality, that attitude developed at some point.   It is my view that the observers of this era looked upon the won-lost record with some skepticism—understanding that the pitcher did not really "win" or "lose" the game—and that the almost unlimited belief in the validity of won-lost records didn’t really develop until the 1930s.    The excessive faith in the validity of won-lost records developed as a by-product of the twenty-win standard, and the twenty-win standard didn’t begin to emerge until the 1920s.

            Anyway, Abraham Lincoln sees Johnson as the best pitcher in the American League in 1912, Walsh as the second-best, Wood third.   Walsh and Wood had very good and very similar strikeout and walk totals, but Johnson struck out more and walked less than either of them.

National League, 1913

            Christy Mathewson/ Babe Adams.    Had the Cy Young Award been around in 1913, Christy Mathewson (25-11, 2.06 ERA) would likely have won his seventh and final Cy Young trophy.  Mathewson walked only 21 batters in 306 innings.   However, Babe Adams (21-10, 2.13), also walked only 49 batters in 314 innings, and had more strikeouts than Mathewson, giving up the same number of home runs.    Abe Lincoln votes for Babe.

            It’s an interesting contest as well, because the Abe Lincoln Score likes power pitchers and tends to favor power pitchers like Waddell and Walter Johnson, even if they are wild, but Mathewson and Adams are both very extreme control-type pitchers who do quite well in this approach.

American League, 1913

            Walter Johnson (36-7, 1.14 ERA).   One of the greatest pitcher’s seasons ever.   Joe Wood got hurt, and was never competition for Johnson again.  

National League, 1914

            Bill James/ Pete Alexander.   A pitcher who has my name went 26-7 with a 1.90 ERA for the Miracle Braves, and would probably have won the Cy Young Award for that season.  However, Pete Alexander (27-15, 2.38) has better underlying stats—more strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer home runs allowed. 

American League, 1914

            Walter Johnson (28-18, 1.72)

Federal League, 1914

            Claude Hendrix/ Cy Falkenberg.   Hendrix won 29 games and would have won the Cy Young Award.   Falkenberg won 25 and would have been second in the voting, but is preferred by Abraham.

National League, 1915

            Pete Alexander (31-10, 1.22)

American League, 1915

            Walter Johnson (27-13, 1.55)

Federal League, 1915

            Dave Davenport (22-18, 2.20)

National League, 1916

            Pete Alexander (33-12, 1.55)

American League, 1916

            Walter Johnson (25-20, 1.90)

National League, 1917

            Pete Alexander (30-13, 1.83)

American League, 1917

            Eddie Cicotte/ Walter Johnson.   Eddie Cicotte (28-12, 1.53 ERA) would have won the Cy Young Award for 1917, had modern voting patterns prevailed.   Johnson, however, had more strikeouts, fewer walks, and fewer home runs allowed.

National League, 1918

            Hippo Vaughn (22-10, 1.74 ERA).   Pete Alexander was sold to the Cubs in the winter of 1917-1918, giving the Cubs, on paper, the two best pitchers in the league, Alexander and Vaughn.   Alexander, however, was drafted, and spent the summer involved in the war in Europe, leaving Vaughn as the Cubs’—and the league’s—best pitcher.   The Cubs still won the pennant.

American League, 1918

            Walter Johnson (23-13, 1.27 ERA).

National League, 1919

            Jesse Barnes/ Hippo Vaughn.     Jesse Barnes—who was my grandfather’s second cousin—would likely have won the National League Cy Young Award for 1919, with a 25-9 record, 2.30 ERA.   Based on underlying stats the best pitchers were still 1. Hippo Vaughn and 2. Pete Alexander.

American League, 1919

            Eddie Cicotte/ Walter Johnson.   As in 1917, Eddie Cicotte, pitching for a vastly better team, would likely have won the Cy Young Award with a won-lost record of 29-7, 1.82 ERA.   Walter Johnson, however, was still a better pitcher based on the bedrock numbers.

            In the era 1900 to 1919 there were 41 league/seasons.   In 27 of these leagues, the pitcher who would likely have won the Cy Young Award (based on traditional voting patterns) and the pitcher who was "truly" best based on the Abe Lincoln formula are the same pitcher.   In the other 14 leagues they are different.  The agreement between the two lists is higher in this era than in any other.

National League, 1920

            Pete Alexander (27-14, 1.91 ERA.) 

American League, 1920

            Jim Bagby/ Stan Coveleski.   Walter Johnson was hurt in 1920, finished just 8-10 with a 3.13 ERA—obviously not a Cy Young candidate.  However, based on his Abe Lincoln Score (0.948) he was still by far the league’s best pitcher, when he was able to take the mound. 

            The Lively Ball era began in the American League in 1920.   Jim Bagby and Stan Coveleski were teammates in Cleveland, which won the American League pennant.   Bagby, with a 31-12 record, would likely have won the Cy Young Award, but Coveleski had a better ERA (2.39 vs. 2.89) and better underlying numbers. 

            Before 1920 there were many 30-game winners, as we have seen.   Since 1920 there have been only two 30-game winners. 

National League, 1921

            Burleigh Grimes (22-13, 2.83 ERA).   Grimes emerged as one of the league’s best pitchers when he was allowed to continue to throw the spitball, while most others were banned from doing so.

American League, 1921

            Carl Mays/ Red Faber.   Carl Mays would have won the Cy Young Award, with a 27-9 record.    Red Faber (25-15 with a 2.48 ERA) had an Abe Lincoln score of 1.000, but the league norms were very high, and Faber and by the formula given above edges Walter Johnson by the thinnest margin (33.300 to 33.298) based on pitching 75 more innings than Johnson did. 

National League, 1922

            The two top pitchers in the NL in 1922 were Eppa Rixey and Wilbur Cooper.  They’re close—Rixey was 25-13, 3.54, Cooper was 23-14, 3.17.   Either one could have won the Cy Young Award, but we’re guessing Rixey, but Abe would have voted for Cooper.

American League, 1922

            Joe Bush/ Red Faber.   Bush was 26-7, which would probably have brought in the Cy Young voters, but Faber had more strikeouts, fewer walks and fewer home runs allowed.

National League, 1923

            Dolf Luque (27-8, 1.93).

American League, 1923

In 1923 the American League Cy Young Award would almost certainly have gone to George Uhle, who finished 26-16 for Cleveland.   However, the Abe Lincoln Score prefers Urban Shocker, 20-12 for St. Louis.   Uhle and Shocker struck out 109 batters apiece, but Shocker walked less than half as many as Uhle (49 to 102).   In the American League in 1923 there were 500 more walks than strikeouts, so Shocker’s 109-49 strikeout/walk ratio, better than two to one, is pretty phenomenal for that era.   

National League, 1924

            Dazzy Vance (28-6, 2.16).   The best pitcher’s season of the 1920s.

American League, 1924

            Walter Johnson returns (23-7, 2.72 ERA)

National League, 1925

            Dazzy Vance (22-9, 3.53 ERA)

American League, 1925

            Stan Coveleski/ Herb Pennock.    Coveleski would likely have won the Award, with a 20-5 record, 2.84 ERA.  With the Yankees having a bad year Pennock finished just 16-17, but won the Abe Lincoln vote, although Walter Johnson, now 37 years old, still had a lower Abe Lincoln Score, but in 48 fewer innings, narrowly missing his eleventh championship.

National League, 1926

            With Dazzy Vance having an injury year, the Cy Young would likely have gone to Ray Kremer, 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA.   Abe Lincoln, however, would have voted for Charlie Root. 

American League, 1926

            George Uhle/ Lefty Grove.  With a 27-11 record, Uhle would be an obvious Cy Young winner.   Grove, despite a 13-13 record, had more strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer home runs allowed. 

National League, 1927

            Jesse Haines/ Dazzy Vance.   Cy Young would have gone to Jesse Haines, 24-10 with a 2.72 ERA—but Dazzy Vance crushes the competition in terms of strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed.  

American League, 1927

            Waite Hoyt/ Lefty Grove.   Hoyt was 22-7; Grove was just 20-13.   Hoyt’s ERA was 2.64; Grove was over 3.00.   Grove, however, had more than twice as many strikeouts.

National League, 1928

            Dazzy Vance (22-10, 2.10 ERA)

American League, 1928

            Lefty Grove (24-8, 2.58 ERA)

National League, 1929

            The Cy Young likely would have gone either to Charlie Root (19-6, 3.47) or Pat Malone (22-10, 3.57), both from the championship Cubs.  But Abe likes Watty Clark, 16-19 for the sixth-place Dodgers.

American League, 1929

            Lefty Grove (20-6, 2.81 ERA).  

National League, 1930

            Dazzy Vance (17-15, 2.61 ERA).   39 years old, still by far the best pitcher in the National League.

American League, 1930

            Lefty Grove (28-5, 2.54 ERA).   Third Cy Young Award for Grove, fifth Abe Lincoln title. 

National League, 1931

            Bill Walker/ Dazzy Vance.   The National League had no twenty-game winner in 1931, for the first time ever, and the top pitchers all had obvious flaws in their resumes.   The Cy Young Award might have gone to Bill Walker (16-9, 2.26 ERA)—but Abe Lincoln is still voting for the 40-year-old Dazzy Vance. 

American League, 1931

            Lefty Grove (31-4, 2.06 ERA)

National League, 1932

            The Cy Young Award winner would certainly have been Lon Warneke (22-6, 2.37 ERA), but the Abe Lincoln vote goes to Dizzy Dean.    Warneke and Dean were both Arkansas hillbillies. 

American League, 1932

            Lefty Grove (25-10, 2.84 ERA).   I’ve lost count.

National League, 1933

            Carl Hubbell (23-12, 1.66 ERA)

American League, 1933

            Lefty Grove/ General Crowder.    Grove was 24-8, 3.21 ERA; Crowder was 24-15, 3.97, and the two had almost the same strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.    Cy Young to Grove; Crowder wins Abe Lincoln vote.

National League, 1934

            Dizzy Dean (30-7, 2.65)

American League, 1934

            Lefty Gomez (26-5, 2.33)

National League, 1935

            Dizzy Dean (28-12, 3.04)

American League, 1935

            The American League Cy Young vote in 1935 would have been a close contest that might have been won by Mel Harder (22-11, 3.29 ERA).   Abe Lincoln votes for Schoolboy Rowe (19-13, 3.68).

National League, 1936

            By far the best pitcher in the National League in 1936 was Carl Hubbell (26-6, 2.31 ERA).   The Abe Lincoln vote, however, goes to Van Lingle Mungo, a hard thrower who didn’t always harness his stuff, but had 238 strikeouts.   This is perhaps the most surprising and the most questionable Abe Lincoln vote in history.

American League, 1936

            Tommy Bridges was 23-11, 3.60 ERA, while Johnny Allen was 20-10, 3.44.   It is our guess that Bridges would have won the Cy Young Award, but Allen scores much higher because he gave up only 5 home runs to Bridges’ 21.

National League, 1937

            Cliff Melton (20-9, 2.61 ERA)

American League, 1937

            Lefty Gomez (21-11, 2.33)

National League, 1938

            The Cy Young Award would obviously have gone to Bill Lee (22-9, 2.66 ERA) over Paul Derringer (21-14, 2.93), Derringer probably second in the voting.   Derringer, however, had 11 more strikeouts and 25 fewer walks, thus a .982 Abe Lincoln Score, as opposed to 1.008 for Lee.  Lincoln is relieved he didn’t have to vote for someone named "Lee".

American League, 1938

            Red Ruffing/ Lefty Gomez.   Ruffing and Gomez were the two Yankee aces.   Ruffing was 21-7, 3.32 ERA—better Cy Young numbers than Gomez (18-12, 3.35).   Gomez, however, allowed 7 home runs to Ruffing’s 16, and thus does better in the underlying analysis.   The 38-year-old Lefty Grove, though limited in his starts, was much more effective than either one on a per-inning basis.

National League, 1939

            Two Cincinnati pitchers, Bucky Walters and Paul Derringer, were 1 and 3 in the MVP voting.   Walters was 27-11, 2.29 ERA—winning the MVP award, and winning the Cy Young Award had there been one—but Paul Derringer was 25-7, 2.93 ERA, which is a Cy Young season as well.   Derringer’s bedrock numbers were better, in that he walked a third as many hitters (35 to 109).  

American League, 1939

            Bob Feller (24-9, 2.85 ERA).     In the years 1920 to 1939 there were 40 leagues.   In 20 of those leagues, the pitcher who would likely have won the Cy Young Award and the best pitcher by the Abe Lincoln stats are one and the same.   In the other 20 leagues they are different. 

National League, 1940

            Claude Passeau (20-13, 2.50 ERA).

American League, 1940

            Bob Feller (27-11, 2.62)

National League, 1941

            Whitlow Wyatt (22-10, 2.34)

American League, 1941

            Had there been a Cy Young Award in the American League in 1941 it would have resulted in an extremely close contest between Thornton Lee (22-11, 2.37 ERA) and Bob Feller (25-13, 3.15, but 260 strikeouts.)   I think there is a 51% chance that Lee would have won the award, but Abe Lincoln, of course, strongly prefers Feller.

National League, 1942

            Mort Cooper (22-7, 1.77)

American League, 1942

            Tex Hughson (22-6, 2.59)

National League, 1943

            Mort Cooper (21-8, 2.30)

American League, 1943

            Spud Chandler (20-4, 1.64)

National League, 1944

            In the National League in 1944 the Cy Young Award would have gone for the third straight season to Mort Cooper (22-7, 2.46 ERA).   However, the Abe Lincoln numbers, interesting enough, strongly favor Ken Raffensberger.  Raffensberger, pitching for the last-place Phillies, was stuck with a 13-20 record, 3.06 ERA, despite a 3-1 strikeout to walk ratio (far better than Cooper in both areas), and only 9 home runs allowed.

            In one of the Stan Musial biographies Musial remembers Raffensberger, a lefty, as the toughest pitcher for him to hit, despite a very mediocre career record of 119-154.

American League, 1944

`           Hal Newhouser (29-9, 2.22)

National League, 1945

            The Cy Young Award would have gone to Hank (Wordtothe) Wyse (22-10, 2.69) or possibly to Red (Grinand) Barrett.  Abe Lincoln, however, prefers Preacher Roe of the 4^th-place Pirates (14-13, 2.87).  Roe had almost twice as many strikeouts as Wyse, and fewer walks and home runs allowed as well.

American League, 1945

            Hal Newhouser (25-9, 1.81)

National League, 1946

            The Cy Young Award would have gone to Howie Pollet (21-10, 2.10 ERA), with Johnny Sain being second in the voting (20-14, 2.21).   The Stovepipe Hat would have gone to Sain.  

American League, 1946

            Bob Feller (26-15, 2.15 ERA, 348 strikeouts) wins the Abe Lincoln Award, and I believe that he would have won the Cy Young as well.   It is possible, however, that the Cy Young would have gone to Newhouser (26-9, 1.81). 

National League, 1947

            The Cy Young vote would have resulted in a very close race between Warren Spahn (21-10, 2.33 ERA) and Ewell Blackwell (22-8, 2.47).   The Abe Lincoln score strongly favors Blackwell.

American League, 1947

            Bob Feller / Hal Newhouser.   Feller would have won Cy Young; Newhouser would have won the Abe Lincoln despite a 17-17 season.

National League, 1948

            Johnny Sain / Harry Brecheen.    Sain wins Cy Young; Brecheen wins Abe Lincoln, and actually might have won the Cy Young as well.

American League, 1948

            Cy Young would probably have gone to Gene Bearden (20-7, 2.43 ERA), but Bearden’s strikeouts and walks are awful (80 strikeouts, 106 walks.)   Abe Lincoln trophy stays with Newhouser, who would also have drawn some Cy Young support, as would Bob Lemon. 

National League, 1949

            Cy Young would have gone to Howie Pollet or possibly Warren Spahn.   The Abe Lincoln trophy, however, goes to a rookie—Don Newcombe.   17-8 with the Dodgers.

American League, 1949

            As there are no dominant pitchers in this era we are having a string of races in which the Cy Young and Abe Lincoln trophies are split.   In the AL in 1949 the Cy Young would have gone to Mel Parnell (25-7, 2.78 ERA despite a strikeout/walk ratio of 122-134.)   Abe Lincoln still insists that Hal Newhouser is the best pitcher in the league—the third straight year that Newhouser would have won the Abe Lincoln vote, but not the Cy Young.

National League, 1950

            Cy Young to Robin Roberts (20-11, 3.02).   Abe Lincoln to Ewell Blackwell. 

American League, 1950

            Cy Young probably to Bob Lemon based on 23-11 record despite 3.84 ERA,

K/W of 170 to 146.   Abe Lincoln would have voted for Vic Raschi (21-8, 3.99), and Raschi might also have won the Cy Young vote. 

National League, 1951

            Another split.   The Cy Young would almost certainly have gone to Sal Maglie (23-6, 2.93 ERA), but the Abe Lincoln score now prefers Robin Roberts.

American League, 1951

            Impossible to say who would have won the Cy Young Award.  My best guess is Ed Lopat (21-9, 2.91 ERA) but there are six other pitchers who are very close.   Abe Lincoln system says the best pure pitcher was Mike Garcia (20-13, 3.15). 

National League, 1952

            Robin Roberts (28-7, 2.59 ERA).

American League, 1952

            Bobby Shantz (24-7, 2.48 ERA) won the MVP Award and obviously would have won the Cy Young Award, but there were four other pitchers in the league who had what are essentially Cy Young seasons, and Abe Lincoln likes one of those (Mike Garcia) better than Shantz.   Garcia pitched more innings than Shantz (292-280) with a better ERA (2.37-2.48).   Abe Lincoln prefers Garcia because Garcia gave up only 9 home runs, whereas Shantz gave up 21.

National League, 1953

            Warren Spahn / Robin Roberts.    Warren Spahn (23-7, 2.10 ERA) would have won the Cy Young Award for the NL in 1953, Roberts second in the voting (23-16, 2.75), and their Abe Lincoln scores are almost the same (.967 for Spahn, .968 for Roberts).   The formula I set up gives Roberts the Stovepipe Hat because he pitched 80 more innings (347-266).   There’s a contrast of styles; Roberts had more strikeouts and fewer walks, but gave up twice as many homers as Spahn.

American League, 1953

            I believe that the Cy Young Award in the American League in 1953 might have gone to Virgil Trucks (20-10, 2.93 ERA), although it could have gone to Bob Porterfield (22-10, 3.35) or Billy Pierce (18-12, 2.72), or even possibly to Mel Parnell (21-8, 3.06).  Abe Lincoln likes Billy Pierce, and by a wide margin.  

National League, 1954

            Robin Roberts (23-15, 2.96)

American League, 1954

            The Cy Young Award would probably have gone to Early Wynn (23-11, 2.72), but Abe Lincoln again likes Mike Garcia (19-8, 2.64), again because Garcia gave up only 6 home runs, whereas Wynn gave up 21.   There’s an absolutely fantastic stat here, which I apologize for repeating because I’ve mentioned it several times before.   Garcia led the league in ERA, at 2.64—and the Indians’ team ERA was 2.78.

National League, 1955

            Robin Roberts (23-14, 3.28)

American League, 1955

            The American League had no 20-game winner in 1955, I think for the first time ever.   The Cy Young Award would probably have gone to Whitey Ford (18-7, 2.62), but Abe Lincoln prefers the ERA leader, Billy Pierce (15-10, 1.97 ERA).   Pierce in 1955 was the only pitcher of the 1950s to qualify for the ERA title with an ERA under 2.00. 

National League, 1956

            Don Newcombe won the first actual Cy Young Award, with a 27-7 record.   Abe Lincoln prefers Bob Friend (17-17, 3.47 ERA, but more strikeouts and fewer home runs allowed than Newk.)

American League, 1956

            Herb Score (20-9, 2.53)

National League, 1957

            Warren Spahn won the Cy Young Award (21-11, 2.69), but a rookie, Jack Sanford, gets Abe Lincoln’s vote.   Sanford (19-8, 3.08 ERA) had 188 strikeouts to Spahn’s 111.

American League, 1957

            Jim Bunning (20-8, 2.72 ERA) would likely have won the American League Cy Young Award, had an award been given for each league.   Abe Lincoln prefers Connie Johnson, a 34-year-old from the Negro Leagues, who had almost the same strikeout and walk data as Bunning but gave up half as many homers.   Johnson finished 14-11, 3.20 ERA with the Orioles.

National League, 1958

            The Cy Young Award would likely have gone again to Warren Spahn (22-11, 3.07), had an award been given in each league.   Abe Lincoln prefers Sam Jones, who pitched with a toothpick in his mouth and led the league in strikeouts, was second in ERA.

American League, 1958

            Bob Turley won the Cy Young Award, but Abe Lincoln strongly prefers numerous other pitchers led by Billy O’Dell (14-11, 2.97 ERA).    The 1962 Giants won the National League with a rotation built out of Jack Sanford (NL leader, 1957), Billy O’Dell (AL leader, 1958) and Billy Pierce (AL leader, 1953 and 1955)—suggesting the possibility that the Giants may have been paying attention to underlying pitching stats even then. 

National League, 1959

            The National League in 1959 had three 20-game winners—Lew Burdette, Warren Spahn and Sam Jones—all of whom finished 21-15.   It is anyone’s guess who would have won the Cy Young Award; probably one of those three or Johnny Antonelli (19-10).   Abe Lincoln thinks the best pitcher in the league was Don Drysdale, although Drysdale finished only 17-13. 

American League, 1959

            Early Wynn won the Cy Young Award (22-10, 3.16 ERA), but Abe Lincoln knows that the best pitcher in the league was Camilo Pascual (17-10, 2.64).   Pascual, pitching for the last-place team, the Senators, struck out 6 more batters than Wynn, walked 50 fewer, and gave up half as many home runs (10 vs. 20) despite pitching in a park that yielded home runs far more readily.    Early Wynn’s double play combination was Nellie Fox and Luis Aparicio.  Camilo Pascual’s was Reno Bertoia and Ron Samford. 

            In the years 1940 to 1959 there were 40 leagues.   In 14 of those leagues, the likely or actual Cy Young Award winner would also be the Abe Lincoln trophy winner.   In the other 26 leagues he would not.    There is less agreement between the (probable) Cy Young winners and the Abe Lincoln leaders in this era than in any other. 

National League, 1960

            Vern Law won the Cy Young Award.   Abe Lincoln prefers his teammate, Bob Friend, who pitched slightly more innings with a slightly better ERA, and who was also Abe’s choice in 1956.

American League, 1960

            Four pitchers were mentioned in the Cy Young voting in 1960—all of them National Leaguers.   If four more had been mentioned, those also would have been National Leaguers; the American League simply had no Cy Young candidate in 1960, and it’s anyone’s guess who would have won the award.   The best pitcher, however, was obviously Jim Bunning, who finished 11-14 despite his sterling bedrock performance statistics.

National League, 1961

            Cy Young Award would probably have gone to Warren Spahn (21-13, 3.01) had an award been given in each league, although it might have gone to Joey Jay (21-10, 3.53).   Abe Lincoln thinks that the best pitcher in the league was, by far, Sandy Koufax (18-13, 3.52 ERA but 269 strikeouts.) 

American League, 1961

            Whitey Ford (25-4, 3.21)

National League, 1962

            Don Drysdale (25-9, 2.84)

American League, 1962

            The Cy Young Award would have gone to Ralph Terry (23-12, 3.19).   Terry was very good, but Abe Lincoln would have voted for The Monstah, Dick Radatz.   Radatz, a reliever, struck out 144 batters in 125 relief innings.

National League, 1963

            Sandy Koufax (25-5, 1.88)

American League, 1963

            The Cy Young Award would have gone to Whitey Ford (24-7, 2.74).  Abe Lincoln, however, would once more have voted for Radatz, who struck out 162 batters and had a 1.98 ERA out of the Boston bullpen.

National League, 1964

            Despite his injury, the Cy Young Award would have gone either to Koufax (19-5, 1.74 ERA) or Larry Jackson (24-11, 3.14).  Abe Lincoln, however, votes for Don Drysdale despite his 18-16 won-lost record. 

American League, 1964

            Dean Chance (20-9, 1.64)   I said earlier that Abe Lincoln thinks that Chance didn’t deserve this award, but that’s if you mix the two leagues together.   Drysdale was better in the other league.    If we assume there’s an Award for each league, Chance deserves his.

National League, 1965         

            Sandy Koufax (26-8, 2.04)

American League, 1965

            Sudden Sam McDowell (17-11, 2.18)

National League, 1966

            Sandy Koufax (27-9, 1.73)

American League, 1966

            Jim Kaat (25-13, 2.75)

National League, 1967

            With Koufax retired, Bob Gibson injured and Cy Young Awards now being given in both leagues, competition for that Award all of a sudden was wide open.    Mike McCormick (22-10, 2.75 ERA) won a Cy Young Award that, from a modern perspective, he very obviously did not deserve.    Jim Bunning (17-15) had a hundred more strikeouts, fewer walks and 28% fewer home runs allowed.

American League, 1967

            Jim Lonborg won the Award (22-9, 3.04 ERA), but Abe Lincoln prefers Dean Chance (20-14, 2.73). 

National League, 1968

            Gibby.   1.12 ERA.

American League, 1968

            Denny McLain.   31 wins.

National League, 1969

            Tom Seaver (25-7, 2.21 ERA) won the Cy Young Award, but Bob Gibson (20-13, 2.18) had 60 more strikeouts and half as many home runs allowed (12 vs. 24).

American League, 1969

            At this time the Cy Young ballots contained only one name, as each writer voted for only one pitcher.   The American League Cy Young vote ended in a tie between Denny McLain (24-9, 2.80 ERA) and Mike Cuellar (23-11, 2.38), but Abe Lincoln thinks that the league’s best pitcher was Sudden Sam (18-14, 2.94 ERA, 279 strikeouts.)    The tie resulted in the ballot being expanded to include more pitchers.  

National League, 1970

            Bob Gibson (23-7, 3.12)

American League, 1970

            The Cy Young Award went to Gaylord’s brother, Jim Perry (24-12, 3.03 ERA).  Abe Lincoln, however, strongly prefers Sudden Sam McDowell, who went 20-12, struck out 304 batters and had a better ERA (2.92). 

National League, 1971

            Ferguson Jenkins / Tom Seaver.   Abe Lincoln prefers Tom Seaver.

American League, 1971

            Vida Blue (24-8, 1.82 ERA)

National League, 1972

            Steve Carlton, duh (27-10, 1.97 ERA)

American League, 1972

            Gaylord Perry won the Cy Young Award with a 24-16 record, 1.92 ERA; Gaylord—also pitching for a bad team, as was Steve Carlton—had a historic season which is obscured by the fantastic season that Carlton had in the National League.

            The Abe Lincoln score, however, likes strikeouts, and so the Abe Lincoln score prefers Nolan Ryan to Gaylord.   Ryan was great—19-16 record, but 329 strikeouts and a 2.28 ERA.  

National League, 1973

            Tom Seaver (19-10, 2.08)

American League, 1973

            Twelve pitchers in the American League won 20 games.  The Cy Young Award went to Jim Palmer, 22-9 with a 2.40 ERA.   Palmer, however, ranks well down the Abe Lincoln list—13^th in the league—due to a strikeout/walk ratio of just 158-113.   Nolan Ryan wins the Abe Lincoln vote with a 21-16 record and 383 strikeouts. 

National League, 1974

            The Cy Young Award went to Mike Marshall, who pitched 106 games, 208 innings in relief.   The Abe Lincoln math sees Marshall as not an unworthy winner—second in the league—but would have preferred Jon Matlack.   Matlack pitched 265 innings with an excellent K/W (195/76) and only eight home runs allowed, leading to a 2.41 ERA—but a won-lost record of 13-15.

American League, 1974

            Cy Young Award went to Catfish Hunter (25-12, 2.49 ERA).   Abe Lincoln trophy goes to Bert Blyleven (17-17, 2.66).   Blyleven, with his wonderful strikeout to walk ratios, was narrowly edged out by Nolan Ryan in 1973, returned the favor by edging out Ryan in 1974.   Ryan had 118 more strikeouts than Blyleven (367-249), but 125 more walks (202-77). 

National League, 1975

            Tom Seaver (22-9, 2.38)

American League, 1975

            Jim Palmer (23-11, 2.09 ERA) won his second Cy Young Award, and, with his strikeout/walk data improving to 193-80, perhaps came closer to deserving it.   Abe Lincoln still prefers the 21-year-old Frank Tanana (16-9, 2.62 ERA, 269 strikeouts.)

National League, 1976

            Randy Jones was a groundball pitcher with very good control.   In 1976 he struck out only 93 batters in 315 innings, but went 22-14 to win the Cy Young Award, 2.74 ERA.   Tom Seaver was just 14-11, which in that era took him out of the Cy Young conversation despite his 2.59 ERA.   Abe Lincoln thinks that Seaver was still the best pitcher in the league.

American League, 1976

            A repeat of 1975.   Palmer wins Cy Young Award; Abe Lincoln prefers Tanana.  Palmer also ranks behind Nolan Ryan, Bert Blyleven, Vida Blue, Dennis Eckersley, Gaylord Perry, Rollie Fingers and Catfish Hunter—which is not an insult to Palmer; that’s just a fantastic list of talent, all Hall of Famers except Tanana and Vida Blue.  

National League, 1977

            Steve Carlton (23-10, 2.64) won the Cy Young Award.   Although Abe Lincoln generally loves Carlton it doesn’t think much of his season, and makes him only 9^th-best candidate for the award.   Abe Lincoln votes for Bruce Sutter (7-3, 31 saves, 1.34 ERA, 129 strikeouts in 107 innings.)

American League, 1977

            Cy Young Award won by Sparky Lyle (13-5, 26 saves, 2.17 ERA).   Abe Lincoln would have voted for Dennis Leonard (20-12, 3.04, 244 strikeouts), and sees Lyle as merely the 15^th-best candidate for the award, behind two other relievers and twelve starters.    The Yankees did in fact that winter sign Goose Gossage, and demote Lyle to a setup role in the bullpen—suggesting that the Yankees, and perhaps baseball executives in general, were ahead of the press in learning to pay more attention to underlying stats than to the big-outcome-based stats that dominated award voting in that era.

National League, 1978

            Cy Young to Gaylord Perry (21-6, 2.73).   Abe Lincoln votes for J. R. Richard (18-11, 3.11, 303 strikeouts.) 

American League, 1978

            Ron Guidry (25-3, 1.74)

National League, 1978

            Cy Young to Bruce Sutter (37 Saves, 2.22 ERA).    Abe Lincoln again would have preferred J. R. Richard (18-13, 2.71, 313 strikeouts), but regards Sutter as the second-best candidate.

American League, 1979

            Cy Young to Mike Flanagan (23-9, 3.08).   Abe Lincoln thinks that Guidry (18-8, 2.78) was still the league’s best pitcher, Flanagan third-best.

            In the years 1960 to 1979 there were 40 league/seasons.   In 16 of those, the actual or probable Cy Young Winner was also the best pitcher as seen by the Abe Lincoln approach.   In the other 24 he was not. 

National League, 1980

            Steve Carlton (24-9, 2.34)

American League, 1980

            Steve Stone won 25 games and the Cy Young Award (25-7, 3.23) despite a strikeout/walk ratio of 149 to 101.   Abe Lincoln regards Stone as the American League’s 27^th best pitcher.

            Almost everybody regards this Cy Young vote as a triumph of tradition over reason, and most of us have written over the years that the Cy Young Award winner that year should have been Mike Norris, who was 22-9 with a 2.53 ERA for Oakland, more strikeouts than Stone (180-149), fewer walks (83-101), fewer home runs allowed (18-22).   Abe Lincoln, however, thinks that Goose Gossage was even better than Norris.   Gossage had 33 saves and a 2.27 ERA for the Yankees, striking out 103 batters in 99 innings—actually very comparable all along the line to the stats recorded by Bruce Sutter in 1979, when Sutter won the National League Cy Young.  Abe Lincoln has Norris second to Gossage.

National League, 1981

            The 1981 season was interrupted by a two-month strike which cut the schedule back to about 110 games.   The NL Cy Young vote was split four ways—among Fernando Valenzuela (13-7, 2.48 ERA), Tom Seaver (14-2, 2.54), Steve Carlton (13-4, 2.43) and Nolan Ryan (11-5, 1.69).   Fernando—a rookie who had generated excitement most of the year, known as Fernandomania—won a close contest over Seaver, each player getting eight first-place votes, Carlton and Ryan mopping up the other eight.

            In terms of Abe Lincoln scores, Carlton and Fernando were far ahead of the other two Hall of Famers.   While Seaver had been a great pitcher, in 1981 he struck out only 87 batters in 166 innings, walking 66, suggesting that his last-gasp Cy Young charge may have been aided by some good fortune.   Abe Lincoln regards him as the 29^th-best pitcher in the league.  

            Nolan Ryan’s strikeout rate in 1981 was almost the same as Fernando’s and Carlton’s, and Ryan allowed only two home runs in 149 innings.   Ryan, however, walked more than either Valenzuela or the Bucolic Buffalo, and he did so in 40 fewer innings.  That makes Fernando and Carlton, in the eyes of Abe Lincoln, by far the two best pitchers in the league. 

            13-4, 2.43, or 13-7, 2.48?   It’s close, but it’s Carlton, and that’s the way Abe Lincoln sees it as well.   Their strikeouts, walks, innings and home runs allowed are almost identical, but forced to choose, Abe Lincoln would have vetoed Fernandomania and voted for Carlton.

American League, 1981

            Rollie Fingers (28 Saves, 1.04 ERA)

National League, 1982

            Steve Carlton (23-11, 3.10)

American League, 1982

            The American League in the mid-1970s had a fling of great pitchers—Palmer, Catfish Hunter, Tiant, Vida Blue, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry and Ferguson Jenkins, to name a few.   In the late 1970s all of those grew old, but Ron Guidry and Frank Tanana seemed poised to take over for them.  Guidry and Tanana, however, both went through down cycles in which should have been their prime years—as did Bert Blyleven.  The American League in 1982 found itself without a serious Cy Young candidate, and wound up giving the award to Pete Vuckovich (18-6, 3.34 ERA).   The word "gift" seems hardly adequate.   Vuckovich struck out 105, walked 102, and was 20^th in the league in innings pitched.    Abe Lincoln regards him as—I am not making this up—the 49^th best pitcher in the American League in that season.   (At the close of the decade we will have a winner who comes in at 50^th.) 

            Who then, was the best pitcher in the league?   The most popular answer at the time, among those of us who regarded the Pete Vuckovich supporters as doddering fools, was Dave Stieb.   Stieb pitched 288 innings, leading the league, with a 3.25 ERA and better peripheral numbers than Vuckovich, but, as a good friend asked me at the time, "are we really ready to give the Cy Young Award to a 17-14 pitcher?"   No, we weren’t; not then, not for another 25 years.

            Abe Lincoln likes Stieb better, obviously, but Abe doesn’t love him, either; Abe Lincoln regards Stieb as the 11^th best pitcher in the league?   The best?   Goose Gossage, once again.   Gossage had basically the same numbers he had had in 1980—2.23 ERA, 30 saves, 102 strikeouts in 93 innings.   Although he was widely regarded as a major star, Gossage was not mentioned in the Cy Young voting in 1982, when the league was begging for Cy Young candidates.

            A word up here also for Len Barker.    Len Barker was injured before he got a chance to be a star, and was stuck with a Cleveland Indians team that was under .500 in ’80 and ’82, one game over in ’81, but according to the Abe Lincoln metric Barker was the best starting pitcher in the American League in both 1981 and 1982, and the second-best (behind Mike Norris) in 1980.   Given better health and a better team, Len Barker would be in the Hall of Fame today.

National League, 1983

            John Denny won the Cy Young Award (19-6, 2.37 ERA).   Teammate Steve Carlton finished just 15-16—but was still the best pitcher in the league by the Abe Lincoln analysis. 

American League, 1983

            The Cy Young went to Lamarr Hoyt (24-10, 3.66 ERA), who was already very fat, but not yet a convicted felon.   Hoyt was better than Vuckovich because he threw strikes, but he wasn’t exactly Juan Marichal, either.   Abe Lincoln would have voted for Jack Morris (20-13, 3.34 ERA.   232 strikeouts.   Big Game Pitcher.) 

National League, 1984

            Traded to the Cubs in mid-season, 1984, Rick Sutcliffe went 16-1 with a 2.69 ERA in the National League, winning the NL Cy Young Award.   Abe Lincoln thinks that a far better choice would have been a 19-year-old rookie with the Mets.   Although Dwight Gooden finished "only" 17-9 as a rookie he struck out 276 batters in 218 innings, and Abe Lincoln regards his season as the best in the majors (at the time) since Steve Carlton’s season in 1980.

American League, 1984

            Willie Hernandez (9-3, 32 Saves, 1.92 ERA)

National League, 1985

            Dwight Gooden (24-4, 1.53)

American League, 1985

            Bret Saberhagen won the Cy Young Award with a 20-6 record, 2.87 ERA.   Abe Lincoln regards him as the second-best pitcher in the league, behind Bert Blyleven (17-16, 3.16 ERA).   With the emergence of Saberhagen and Clemens (1986) the American League was kind of back on its feet in terms of having legitimate Cy Young contenders. 

National League, 1986

            Mike Scott (18-10, 2.22 ERA, 310 strikeouts)

American League, 1986

            Roger Clemens (24-4, 2.48 ERA)

National League, 1987

            The Cy Young Award was somewhat improbably bequeathed to Steve Bedrosian (40 Saves, 2.83 ERA), which Abe Lincoln regards as a historically bad selection, in keeping with others from this era.    Abe thinks that Bedrosian was the eighth best reliever in the league, and would have given the Stovepipe Hat to a Hall of Fame pitcher with an 8-16 record.   Nolan Ryan.  

American League, 1987

            Roger Clemens (20-9, 2.97 ERA).   

National League, 1988

            Orel Hershiser won the Cy Young Award with a 23-8 record, 2.26 ERA, and a record-breaking string of scoreless innings.   Abe Lincoln thinks that David Cone of New York (20-3, 2.22 ERA) would have been a more deserving selection based on his foundation numbers, which include 35 more strikeouts than Hershiser and eight fewer home runs allowed.

American League, 1988

            Frank Viola (24-7, 2.64 ERA) won the Cy Young Award.  Abe Lincoln believes that Roger Clemens (18-12, 2.93) was still a better pitcher.  Clemens had 98 more strikeouts and 3 fewer home runs allowed.

National League, 1989

            Mark Davis won the Cy Young Award with 44 saves and a             1.85 ERA.   Hershiser fell off to 15-15 despite other numbers—including ERA—that were extremely similar to his Cy Young season in 1988.  Abe Lincoln thinks that Hershiser was in fact the best pitcher in the league, not in 1988 but in 1989, but does think that Davis was the third-best (behind Hershiser and Jose DeLeon of St. Louis.) 

American League, 1989

            Bret Saberhagen won his second Cy Young with a 23-6 record, 2.16 ERA.   Abe Lincoln ranks him second in the league behind perennial favorite Nolan Ryan—16-10, 3.20, but 301 strikeouts in 239 innings. 

National League, 1990

            The Cy Young Award went to Doug Drabek (22-6, 2.76 ERA); however, as Drabek struck out only 131 batters in 231 innings and Abe Lincoln likes power pitchers, Drabek ranks fairly low on Lincoln’s List, 13^th in the league.   Abe would have voted for Dwight Gooden (won-lost 19-7, 3.83 ERA, 223 strikeouts in 233 innings.)

American League, 1990

            An interesting one.   Bob Welch "won" 27 games, the most wins in the American League since 1968, the most wins in either league since 1972.  But with a strikeout/walk ratio of 127-77, Welch is seen by Abe Lincoln as merely the 50^th-best pitcher in the American League, one spot lower even than Pete Vuckovich.    Abe would have voted for the guy who saved 20+ of Welch’s wins—Dennis Eckersley.   Eckersley saved 48 games, struck out 73 batters in 73 innings, walked only 4, and posted a 0.61 ERA. 

National League, 1991

            Cy Young went to Tom Glavine (20-11, 2.55).   Glavine had 192 strikeouts in 247 innings, so (with his other virtues) he rates well; however, Abe Lincoln again regards a reliever, Rob Dibble, as the best pitcher in the league.   Dibble had 31 saves and 124 strikeouts in 82 innings.

American League, 1991

            Roger Clemens (18-10, 2.62 ERA)

National League, 1992

            Greg Maddux (20-11, 2.18 ERA)

American League, 1992

            Dennis Eckersley (7-1, 51 Saves, 1.91 ERA)

National League, 1993

            Cy Young went again to Maddux (20-10, 2.36 ERA); Maddux moved from Chicago to Atlanta but kept the Cy Young Award.   In this case, however, Abe Lincoln prefers reliever John (Ducks Unlimited) Wetteland (9-3, 43 saves, 1.37 ERA, 113 strikeouts in 85 innings.)

American League, 1993

            Cy Young went to Black Jack McDowell (22-10, 3.37 ERA), who is regarded by Abe Lincoln as the 11^th best candidate for the award.   Abe Lincoln votes for Randy Johnson (19-8, 3.24 ERA).  Johnson had twice as many strikeouts as McDowell (308-158), offsetting 30 more walks and two more home runs allowed. 

National League, 1994

            Greg Maddux (16-6, 1.56)

American League, 1994

            Cy Young to David Cone (16-5, 2.94 ERA).  While Cone was very good, Abe Lincoln again would have preferred Randy Johnson, who struck out 204 batters in the strike-shortened season.   Johnson finished 13-6.  Johnson was second in the Cy Young voting in 1993, third in 1994. 

National League, 1995

            Greg Maddux (19-2, 1.63).   Abe Lincoln agrees with three of his four consecutive Cy Young Awards. 

American League, 1995

            Randy Johnson (18-2, 2.48)

National League, 1996

            John Smoltz (24-8, 2.94).   Greg Maddux second despite 15-11 record.

American League, 1996

In 1996 Roger Clemens finished just 10-13 with a 3.63 ERA and was publicly derided by his General Manager, who let him get away from the Red Sox—but was still the best pitcher in the American League in terms of strikeouts, walks, and home runs not allowed.    The Cy Young Award went to Pat Hentgen.

National League, 1997

            Curt Schilling of Philadelphia and Pedro Martinez of Montreal both had monster seasons in terms of strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, striking out 300+ batters each with very good control.    Pedro’s Abe Lincoln score was .809—the third-best for a starting pitcher during the 1990s—while Schilling’s was .821, which was fifth-best.    Pedro won the Cy Young Award, going 17-8 with a 1.90 ERA.    However, when the Abe Lincoln score is adjusted for the innings pitched, since Schilling pitched 13 more innings with almost the same Abe Lincoln score, Schilling actually comes in ahead of Pedro.  

American League, 1997

            Roger Clemens (21-6, 2.05 ERA).   Clemens’ best season by most indicators.

National League, 1998
            Tom Glavine won his second Cy Young with a 20-6 record, 2.47 ERA.   In this case, however, Abe Lincoln thinks that Kevin Brown was vastly better.   Brown had a hundred more strikeouts (257-157), 25 fewer walks (49-74), and five fewer home runs allowed (8-13).  Lincoln regards Glavine as the 14^th best pitcher in the league. 

American League, 1998

            Roger Clemens (20-6, 2.65)   

National League, 1999

            Randy Johnson (17-9, 2.48 ERA, 364 strikeouts).   Johnson won the Cy Young Award (which he deserved) although numerous pitchers had better won-lost records, led by Mike Hampton at 22-4.   This may indicate the beginning of the shift in Cy Young voting, away from a very heavy reliance on the won-lost record, although there are still several votes after this that would argue to the contrary.  

American League, 1999

            Pedro Martinez of Boston (23-4, 2.07).   Pedro Martinez in 1999 struck out 313 batters, walked only 37, and allowed only 9 home runs in 213 innings.  This was the lowest Abe Lincoln score for a starting pitcher with more than 60 innings in the history of baseball—0.713.   The only relievers to post better Lincoln Logs were Billy Wagner, also in 1999, and Eric Gagne in 2003.

            In the years 1980 to 1999 there were 40 league/seasons.   In 19 of those leagues, the Cy Young Award winner is also seen by the Abe Lincoln system as the pitcher most deserving of the award.   In the other 21 he is not.

National League, 2000

            Randy Johnson (19-7, 2.64 ERA, 347 strikeouts)

American League, 2000

            Pedro Martinez (18-6, 1.74).

National League, 2001

            Randy Johnson (21-6, 2.49 ERA, 372 strikeouts)

American League, 2001

            Roger Clemens won the Cy Young Award with a 20-3 record, 3.51 ERA for the Yankees.   Abe Lincoln, however, now sees Clemens as merely the fifth-best pitcher in the league, and would have voted for Mariano Rivera (50 saves, 83-12 strikeout/walk ratio in 80 innings.)   Rivera was not among the six pitchers mentioned in the voting.

National League, 2002

            Randy Johnson won the Cy Young Award with his best won-lost record (24-5) and his usual eye-popping strikeout numbers (334) and ERA (2.32).   In this case, however, Abe Lincoln would have voted for his teammate, Curt Schilling, who went 23-7 with only 18 fewer strikeouts (316) and 38 fewer walks (33-71).  

American League, 2002

            Barry Zito won the Cy Young Award with a 23-5 record, 2.75 ERA.   Abe Lincoln regards Zito as the 13^th-best candidate, and would have voted again for Pedro Martinez of Boston (20-4, 2.26 ERA.)   Martinez bested Zito by 57 strikeouts (239-182), 38 walks (40-78) and 11 home runs allowed (13-24).   Roy Halladay had his first good season, and ranked second.

National League, 2003

            Eric Gagne (55 Saves, 1.20 ERA, 137 strikeouts in 82.2 innings.)   Abe Lincoln regards this as the greatest season ever by a reliever and, per inning pitched, the greatest season ever of 40 or more innings.

American League, 2003

            Roy Halladay / Pedro Martinez.   Halladay won the big award with a 22-7 record, 3.25 ERA.   Pedro pitched only 187 innings and went just 14-4, but Abe Lincoln still thinks that Pedro was better, Halladay second again.

National League, 2004

            Roger Clemens won the Cy Young Award with an 18-4 record, 2.98 ERA.   By 2004 the Diamondbacks had collapsed into a quivering heap of 111 losses, and the 40-year-old Randy Johnson was stuck with a 16-14 record despite a 290-44 strikeout to walk ratio and a 2.60 ERA.    Abe Lincoln still believes that Johnson was the best pitcher in the league.

American League, 2004

            Johan Santana (20-6, 2.61)

National League, 2005

            Cy Young went to Chris Carpenter (21-5, 2.83 ERA.)  Abe Lincoln regards Carpenter as the second-best candidate for the award, but would have voted for Brad Lidge (42 saves, 2.23 ERA, 103 strikeouts in 71 innings.)

American League, 2005

            Bartolo Colon won the Cy Young Award with a 21-8 record, 3.48 ERA.   Johan Santana (16-7, 2.87 ERA) had 81 more strikeouts, with essentially the same walks and home runs allowed.  

National League, 2006

            Brandon Webb won the Cy Young Award with a 16-8 record, 3.10 ERA.   Abe Lincoln ranks Webb third in the league, behind two relievers, Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner.    Saito wins the Lincoln vote with 24 saves, 2.07 ERA, 107 strikeouts in 78 innings. 

American League, 2006

            Same as the National League.   Johan Santana won the Cy Young Award (19-6, 2.77), but ranks third in the Abe Lincoln process behind two relievers, J. J. Putz and Joe Nathan.  Putz wins Lincoln’s vote with 36 saves, 2.30 ERA, 104 strikeouts in 78 innings. 

National League, 2007

            Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54)

American League, 2007

            CC Sabathia (19-7, 3.31)

National League, 2008

            Tim Lincecum (18-5, 2.62)

American League, 2008

            Cliff Lee won the Cy Young Award with a 22-3 record, 2.54 ERA.   Abe Lincoln regards him as the fourth-best pitcher in the league, behind Mariano Rivera (39 Saves, 1.40 ERA), Jonathan Papelbon and Roy Halladay.

            To editorialize for a minute, Mariano Rivera is. . .well, a Rivera-ed figure in baseball, universally regarded as a Hall of Famer, and probably the greatest reliever of all time—yet he has never won a Cy Young Award.   He may well be the greatest pitcher of the Cy Young era never to have won the award, although one can also mention Nolan Ryan and Juan Marichal in that context.  The Abe Lincoln approach sees Ryan as deserving of four Cy Youngs awards and Rivera as deserving of two—2001 and 2008. 

National League, 2009

            Tim Lincecum (15-7, 2.48)

American League, 2009

            Zach Greinke (16-8, 2.16)

National League, 2010

            Roy Halladay won the Cy Young Award with a 21-10 record, 2.44 ERA.   Abe Lincoln ranks him as the #2 pitcher in the league, behind Carlos Marmol of the Cubs, who had 38 saves and struck out 138 batters in 78 innings.    Marmol, like Mariano Rivera in 2001, was not mentioned in the voting.

American League, 2010

            Felix Hernandez (13-12, 2.27)

            Since 2000 there have been 22 Cy Young Awards, of which 11 were won by the pitcher that Abe Lincoln sees as the best-qualified candidate, and 11 were not.

            Since 1900 there have been 223 league/seasons.  Of those 223, there have been 107 in which the Cy Young Award winner or the most-likely Cy Young Award winner based on traditional voting patterns has also been the best pitcher based on the underlying stats of strikeouts, walks, hit batsmen, home runs allowed and innings pitched.    In the other 116 cases there is not an agreement.

            Walter Johnson would have won Abe Lincoln’s vote as the best pitcher in his league ten times—the most of any pitcher:

Let’s pick the non-Hall of Famers out from that list:

            I believe there are 19 league/seasons in which Abe Lincoln sees a reliever as the pitcher most deserving of the Cy Young Award.

            There are two questions I have not yet addressed here, which are

            1)  Who has good Abe Lincoln stats in 2011? and

            2)  What do the Abe Lincoln stats tell us about team performance?

            I’ll try to get to those, and wrap up this series.