The trade deadline is fast approaching with the usual rumor mill flooding the pages. While the trend over the last few seasons seems to be less blockbuster deals, a couple of scenarios have entered this year’s sweepstakes to make this July stand out a bit.
1 – Why give up talent when you can sign Barry Bonds?
2 – Will a World Series favorite such as the Red Sox trade an offensive force like Manny Ramirez?
Both of these subjects could inhabit an article unto themselves, but the contrast between these two players is interesting to look at.
I frequent a group on the Intraweb that is formed around the Yankees but the members’ interest in baseball goes well beyond simple rooting. It’s a community of knowledge-driven fans who appreciate not only the deep statistical side of the game, but put a lot of emphasis on talent development and prediction. Naturally, being a Yankee group, this usually centers on the Yankees and their moves, but the discussions can often be applied to many teams, as their subject-manner is universal.
Bonds has been a topic of much discussion lately, with the latest focusing on the possibility of Manny becoming available. To be clear, nobody in his or her right mind believes Manny Ramirez stands any chance of being traded to the Yankees. The question is, who is the bigger risk at this point in the time?
On one hand, you have Bonds, who can be had for a prorated league minimum and costs zero prospects. On the other, you have Manny, who makes $20 million this year, is going to cost you a boatload of prospects, and will probably want you to pick up his option for next year.
It’s not that simple. Never is.
Both men come with baggage with Bonds carrying the heaviest load. Here we have the career and seasonal home run record holder without a job. Yes, there are perjury charges hanging over his head but they won’t be dealt with until the off-season at the very least. Yes, there is rampant speculation that he used steroids at some points during his career. Yes, he doesn’t have the best reputation in the clubhouse. Or out of the clubhouse. Or, really, in any house that he has set foot in.
The baffling part about Bonds was how much the fans of San Francisco loved him up until the very end. Call it blind love; the kind a father looks upon their hatchet-holding son with a fallen cherry tree in the yard, discarding rational thought for hope and faith. The San Francisco fans and the Giants themselves created a safe haven for Bonds as the allegations swirled and the investigations probed. Everyone was willing to look past the troubles, take him at his word, and try to move forward.
Then a funny thing happened: Bonds broke the career home run record. Suddenly, the Giants had no more use for him. One of the greatest hitters to ever play the game found himself a free agent with no suitors. Before he broke the record, any number of teams would have taken on Bonds for the opportunity to cash in on his achievements, regardless of how much public scorn they may have received. He would have helped them on the diamond, too.
With the breaking of the home run record, the game’s patience for the Barry Bonds Road Show finally wore off. Many of us hoped he wouldn’t break it, not with all the controversy that surrounded him. Yet, when it came time, few people rejoiced and countless numbers booed, but many of us watched. Bonds became the living embodiment of the roadside accident: nobody wants it to happen but everyone wants a look.
Barry Bonds the Story began to eclipse the value of Barry Bonds the Player. The tremendous offense Bonds was able to produce on the field became meaningless in the face of his legal issues or the anger from fans that felt Bonds cheated his way into the record books. The record pursuit made him tolerable, the residual cash healing the Giants wounds. Now that all the records had been broken and the story ended, the value of Bonds the Player seemed to be worth a lot less.
Bill James has argued on this very site that the value of Bonds the Player at this moment may be overestimated. I’m not about to argue with him. Bonds hasn’t seen live pitching in ten months and all of his skills outside of actually hitting are in major decline. According to Bill, the hitting should soon follow.
But where is the risk? Bonds doesn’t cost any players. He’s willing to play at the league minimum and stated that he would donate said dollars to charity. If your team can handle the media circus, the entourage, and the general surliness, it’s a low cost risk.
By all accounts, those factors simply aren’t worth the risk anymore.
Manny Ramirez is the other story. He doesn’t carry the steroid baggage of Bonds, but he does have the stigma of a clubhouse headache. In Manny’s eight years in Boston, he’s requested a trade or fanned the trade talks himself at least four or five times. This season, he has pressured management to make a decision regarding his option year next year while simultaneously showing a lack of discipline on the field.
Manny has actually created a rather dangerous situation for the Red Sox. While the Tampa Bay Devil Rays are currently atop the American League East, Conventional Wisdom holds that the Red Sox will soon eclipse them en route to another World Series appearance. In this case, I agree with the Conventional Wisdom, but my participation relies on the idea that Manny is a fully-functioning member of the Red Sox lineup. He is an important piece to the Red Sox offense, especially with David Ortiz having an injury-riddled season.
Manny is aware of his importance to the Red Sox’ success and I think the Red Sox front office is aware, too. The Man has a career .999 OPS and has done nothing but scare opposing pitchers for the entirety of his career. Especially the Yankees (That’s not me guesstimating. Look it up).
Manny probably feels that he can force the Red Sox hand by holding his performance over their heads. In two high profile games against the Yankees, he was Manny Not Being Manny, staring at three straight strikes by Mariano Rivera in one, and flat out asking not to play in another. We don’t know if Manny was truly dogging it to make a point, but these two instances came on the heels of Manny criticizing the front office and demanding that they communicate with him regarding his option status.
In some ways, this is almost more dangerous than Bonds. Sure, Bonds is old and he doesn’t exactly book it down the line on a ground ball. But one thing that hasn’t come into question regarding Bonds is his desire to play and to win. Manny, on the other hand, may be using his performance or lack thereof as a negotiating tactic, at a time when his fellow teammates need him the most.
It leaves the Red Sox in a thankless position. If they trade Manny, especially now, they’re never going to receive equal value for him. They might gain a hefty haul of prospects, but that doesn’t help them win a World Series, which is a very attainable goal this season. Conversely, if they don’t trade Manny, if they don’t pickup or at least discuss his option year, they run the risk of him sabotaging the rest of his season and possibly missing the playoffs. These are extreme instances, but they are all quite possible.
Of course, the Red Sox could always trade Ramirez and pickup Bonds. Now wouldn’t that be interesting…
Scott Ham can be reached at scotth23@hotmail.com