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The 80% Club

By Dave Fleming

October 24, 2008

Consider the major statistical benchmarks:

Twenty-four players have hit 500 homeruns in baseball history. Twenty-seven players have collected 3000 hits. Seventeen batters have 1800 RBI’s. More than two hundred hitters have career batting averages over .300. Forty-four batters have career batting averages over .325.

How about pitchers? Twenty-two pitchers have won 300 games, while twenty-one pitchers have saved 300 games. Sixteen pitchers have notched 3000 strikeouts. Career ERA under 2.50? Forty-three pitchers. Career ERA+ better than 140? Sixteen.

But 80 percent? That’s a rare feat. Only thirteen players in history can boast a success rate that high.

The Stolen Base in Sabermetrics

Stealing a base is a dangerous proposition. Each at-bat is, centrally, a win or lose scenario: either the pitcher ‘wins’ by retiring the batter, or the batter ‘wins’ by reaching base safely. The pitcher usually wins this battle: last year major league hitters reached (at least) first base at a .333 clip, or one-third of the time.

In deciding to steal, a man on first (or second, or third) is saying, “Against the odds, the defense failed to get me out. I think I’ll give them another chance.”

To be sure, the odds now favor the runner: last year major league base stealers were successful in 73% of their attempts. But consider, for a moment, those poor 27% who squandered their odds-defying journey to first by getting tossed out at second.

Still, the numbers have been crunched and the conclusion in sabermetric circles is clear: the risk of losing the base runner usually outweights the potential gain of that extra base. Excepting certain situations (see 2004 ALCS, Game 4), it isn’t worth it to try to steal a base.

Unless you’re really good at it.

The 80%-ers

These are the thirteen players with 300 or more stolen bases who had a success rate of 80% of higher (not counting players with incomplete or missing caught stealing totals):

	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Rickey Henderson	80	1406	335	66	297	.279	.401	.419
Tim Raines	84	808	146	113	170	.294	.385	.425
Vince Coleman	80	752	177	89	28	.264	.324	.345
Joe Morgan	80	689	162	96	268	.271	.392	.427
Willie Wilson	83	668	134	147	41	.285	.326	.376
Davey Lopes	83	557	114	50	155	.263	.349	.388
Roberto Alomar	80	474	114	80	210	.300	.371	.443
Barry Larkin	83	379	77	76	198	.295	.371	.444
Tony Womack	83	363	74	59	36	.273	.317	.356
Eric Davis	84	349	66	26	282	.269	.359	.482
Julio Cruz	81	343	78	27	23	.237	.321	.299
Ichiro Suzuki	81	315	70	64	73	.331	.377	.430
Carl Crawford	82	302	64	84	70	.293	.330	.435

Most of these guys aren’t surprising. A few of us know that Tim Raines is the most effective base stealer in history. Rickey is on every list about stolen base guys. Morgan, Wilson, Davis, and Alomar were all considered among the fastest players of their generations, as Ichiro and Crawford are now.

Tony Womack is a surprise, as is (for those of us born at the tail end of the Carter administration) Julio Cruz. They are the two outliers of the group: the two guys who had no other offensive skill except their ability to steal a base without getting caught.

A fair number of these guys are middle infielders, which isn’t a surprise. I mean, who better to steal a base than the guy responsible for defending the stolen base? Morgan, Lopes, Alomar, Larkin, Womack, and Cruz were middle infielders. Morgan, Alomar, and Larkin were perennial Gold Glove winners. Davey Lopes also won one).

(As an aside: Joe Mauer is the only catcher currently residing in the 80% club, though he has just 30 career stolen bases. He gets a day pass and free use of the pool).

The outfielders were also generally strong defensive players: Ichiro has won seven Gold Gloves, while Eric Davis won 3. Even Henderson and Wilson each won one.

Which is remarkable, isn’t it? Most of the 80%-ers are terrific players. Five of the guys (Henderson, Raines, Morgan, Alomar, and Larkin) are Hall-of-Fame players. Ichiro will be a Hall-of-Famer, and if Eric Davis didn’t have the brilliant career that his first years hinted at, he wasn’t a slouch, either. Really good basestealers tend to be really good players.

Generations

One way to think about the 80%-ers is to look at them by ‘generations’ – lump the guys together into pairs based on their age. It works remarkably well:

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Joe Morgan	1963	80	689	162	96	268	.271	.392	.427
Davey Lopes	1972	83	557	114	50	155	.263	.349	.388

This is a less dramatic ‘stretch’ of a generation than it perhaps appears. Yes, Lopes broke into the majors a decade after Morgan did, but Lopes got a late start in the majors, and is only two years younger than Joe Morgan. They are similar players: both power-hitting second basemen on strong National League teams. Lopes had his first full season at Age 28: had he arrived in the majors at a younger age, he would have had a Hall-of-Fame-level career.

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Willie Wilson	1976	83	668	134	147	41	.285	.326	.376
Julio Cruz	1977	81	343	78	27	23	.237	.321	.299

While Cruz and Wilson played different positions, they were offensively similar players: switch-hitting slap hitters who had little power. Wilson was a career leadoff hitter, while Cruz went back and forth between the leadoff spot and the #9 position in the batting order.

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Rickey Henderson	1979	80	1406	335	66	297	.279	.401	.419
Tim Raines	1979	84	808	146	113	170	.294	.385	.425

See what I mean about the pairs working out nicely? Henderson and Raines are probably the two base stealers most linked to one another, direct contemporaries during the Decade of the Steal. For a long time, they were neck-and-neck. Their numbers at the end of the 1989 season:

	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	SB
Henderson	138	.290	.400	.429	871
Raines	87	.303	.391	.442	585

Henderson, of course, had the better late career, but for a decade the title of Greatest Lead-Off Hitter of All-Time was a debate between these two men.

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Eric Davis	1984	84	349	66	26	282	.269	.359	.482
Vince Coleman	1985	80	752	177	89	28	.264	.324	.345

What’s interesting about this pair is that both players represent extremes. Vince Coleman, of course, was an extreme runner: the entirety of his career was built on speed. And he had tremendous speed: Coleman led the majors in stolen bases for the first six years of his career. In his first three seasons he stole 326 bases. In 1986, having already established that he would try to steal a base every time he got on first, Coleman stole 107 bases and was caught just fourteen times, an astonishing 88% success rate. He was that fast.

Davis, of course, is the extreme combination of speed and power. Seven players in history have posted a speed/power number higher than 40.00. Eric Davis did it in his first two full seasons, hitting 27 homeruns and stealing 80 bases in 1986, and 37 homers and 50 stolen bases in 1987.

For their extremes, they are ultimately two ‘what-if?’ players? How many stolen bases could Vince Coleman have notched had he learned to take a pitch, or to make contact? How many MVP awards would Davis have won had he not lacerated his kidney diving for a ball in Game 4 of the 1990 World Series? Had he been a regular in the majors at 22 instead of 24? Had he avoided those nagging injuries?

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Barry Larkin	1986	83	379	77	76	198	.295	.371	.444
Roberto Alomar	1988	80	474	114	80	210	.300	.371	.443

Another great pairing, Alomar and Larkin are both top-ten middle infielders (The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract had Larkin ranked #6 among shortstops, and Alomar ranked #10 among second basemen). Their raw numbers are nearly identical, particularly their batting lines. And they were both perennial Gold Glove winners.

If Alomar and Larkin have a kindred spirit on the list, it’s Joe Morgan. The three of them are five-tool players, players who excel at all facets of the game while playing key defensive positions.

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Tony Womack	1993	83	363	74	59	36	.273	.317	.356

Tony Womack doesn’t get a pairing. Sorry.

Name	Rk. Yr.	SB%	SB	CS	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
Ichiro Suzuki	2001	81	315	70	64	73	.331	.377	.430
Carl Crawford	2002	82	302	64	84	70	.293	.330	.435

This is the least convincing pairing, Ichiro being six years older than Crawford.

Ichiro is the only player on the list with a batting average well above .300, which is actually pretty surprising considering the speed of these players. Despite his huge lead in batting average, Ichiro has a lower on-base percentage than Morgan, Henderson, and Raines.

Ichiro and Crawford are the two active players, and it will be interesting to see if they stay in the 80% club. Ichiro is older, of course, so he is more likely to lose speed. That said, his success at stealing bases is actually getting better: he stole 45 bases in 2006 and was caught twice. In 2008 he stole 43 bases and was caught 5 times.

Carl Crawford…well, I have a lot of things to say about Carl Crawford. And, hey, he’s in the World Series. I guess he gets his own article.

(Thanks, www.baseballreference.com, for the numbers)

(Dave Fleming spends his time imagining an alternate universe where the Red Sox and Dodgers are playing in the World Series. He welcomes comments and questions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com)

COMMENTS (14 Comments, most recent shown first)

DaveFleming
It actually wasn't much work, Richie. I figured out an easier way to generate the list via baseballreference.com.
2:31 PM Oct 27th

Richie
Thanks for the additional work, Dave. Don't do anymore lest I feel guilty.
5:26 PM Oct 26th

DaveFleming
All the 100-300 basestealers in the 80% Club:

200-300 SB
Carlos Beltran
Stan Javier
Andy Van Slyke
Dave Roberts

Two good players and two burner leadoff men. Beltran and Van Slyke are very similiar players: both were excellent CF'ers with some pop, though Beltran benefits from playing a higher offensive context. Javier and Roberts were also similiar players.

100-200 SB
Willy Taveras
Doug Glanville
Mickey Mantle
Pokey Reese
Henry Cotto
Eric Byrnes

The obvious outlier is Mantle, who is the oldest player to crack the club. Of Reese, Cotto, Glanville, Taveras, and Byrnes, only Byrnes is even an average offensive player.

Hell, it's worth all of 'em to have Mantle in the club.
12:55 PM Oct 26th

Trailbzr
About the Wilson/Cruz pair: I never really thought of them as being much alike, except for lack of power. It's likely their perceptions are shaped by circumstances: Wilson was a key member of a good team for almost a decade, while Cruz wouldn't have had a ten-year career if he hadn't been selected by the Seattle Mariners in the expansion draft at 22. The biggest difference between them as hitters is the shape of their nearly identical career OBP.

Dave has another article about measuring hitter's intelligence, in which the two most important metrics are walks and having a slow decline phase. Obviously, these two characteristics would correlate with being eligible for this study, and there are quite a few players on the list with good intelligence reputations. Wilson is one obvious exception among players from his era. His attitude toward walking is famous; his last really good season was at 28; and off-the-field he was not considered mature. But, man, could he burn. I remember him getting infield hits by out-running the pitcher to first base.
9:19 AM Oct 26th

Richie
Dave, systematically comparing the quality of the >80% to the <80% guys would address the selection bias issue. Not that checking so is worth your time. Heck, I could check myself if I cared enough.

Almost no one steals 40+ SBs in a year without batting in the top part of the lineup. And almost no one stays at the top of a batting lineup year-in year-out without being a good hitter. Off the cuff, I'm guessing this held even in the 70s. We remember the Omar Morenos, but were there really that many of them?
10:26 PM Oct 25th

DaveFleming
Thanks for the new names, Chuck.

Of all the players who didn't make the club, Ozzie Smith was the biggest surprise. Before I looked at the numbers I was certain he's crack 80%.

Lofton is in the club. He can be paired with Tony Womack's. Just to keep Roel happy.
6:00 PM Oct 25th

chuck
Another couple that may make this list soon: Jimmy Rollins and Johnny Damon. Damon is really close in percentage terms (79%). And his last two seasons he's improved his rate to over 83%.
Rollins has 295 steasl and an almost 83% rate. If you include the postseason (which I think makes sense, as he's facing the best competition there), he's at 299. One more steal in the Series and I say give him his temporary membership card. Jose Reyes may well join the club, too if his pct. improves just a tiny bit.

Retirees just short of the mark: Ozzie Smith, Kenny Lofton, Paul Molitor, and Gary Redus.
Ozzie's mistake was playing past 38. He was over 80% at that point, then went 17-11 in his last three years. The closest of these is Lofton, at 79.5 pct. If you include his postseasons, in which he stole at an 87% clip (34 and 6), he bumps up to 79.8. Molitor's an interesting one to look at, as he got much better in percentage in his later years. From ages 35 to 38, he stole at an 89.5% rate.

At the end, just four fewer cs would have put both Lofton and Molitor at 80%. Ozzie missed by 3 and Redus just by getting nailed those last 2 times.
2:28 PM Oct 25th

DaveFleming
Richie,
I disagree that 300 stolen bases represents a selection bias, as 300 steals isn't particularly hard to get to. Think about it: a fast player will swipe maybe 40 or 50 bags a year, so 300 steals represents 6 to 8 years of work.

There are currently 152 300+ stolen base guys and a lot of 'em are pretty crummy offensive players. The vast majority of the 80%-ers are very good offensive players in addition to their speed: only Cruz, Coleman, and Womack are offensive duds.

To the suggestion that dropped the total to 100 would bring in lousy players: I actually don't think it would (for one thing, we'd get Mantle on the list). If I have time, I'll try to revisit it.

Finally, there are only three pitchers to ever win 200+ games while allowing 4+ walks per 9 innings: Nolan Ryan, Bob Feller, and Bobo Newsom. And while I wouldn't call Newsom 'terrific', the other two ain't bad.
12:21 PM Oct 25th

Richie
Time for a quibble. The main reason "(m)ost of the 80%-ers are terrific players" is simply a selection bias. Has more to do with your '300 stolen base' floor than with the 80%. They had to be good enough to play enough to get to 300 SBs. Drop your floor to 100 SBs, and I predict the playing quality of your '80-percenters' will drop dramatically.

Sorta like saying, "Gosh, most of the '4-walks-per-9-innings' starters who made it to 200 wins were terrific pitchers". Of course they would be.
11:19 AM Oct 25th

doncoffin
A player who's very likely to join the 300 SB with an 80%+ success rate, probably next season--Carlos Beltran (275 SB, 37 CS, an 88.1% success rate. To match Carl Crawfor, he has to fo 27 - 27, which is a measure, I think, of how good he's been. .281/.357/.496 BA/OBA/SA, which gives him a better OPS than any of the players on your list...
2:31 AM Oct 25th

DaveFleming
The data on caught stealing is a little spotty before, oh, 1950 or so. Some guys have the caught stealing counts and other are missing seasons.

Baseball reference doesn't have numbers for Billy Hamilton. Cobb's numbers are spotty, and in the seasons where they have caught stealing totals, Cobb doesn't do very well. The 1950's wasn't a speed era: there were fast players, but not a lot of guys who stole 40 or more bases per year. Take Mickey Mantle, for instance: he was one of the fastest players of his generation, and he swiped bags at an 80% success rate. But his career high was 21 steals. It just wasn't a dominant strategy. Joe Morgan was the first guy who stole a lot of bases and had a high rate of success.

Lord, I wished I had known about Beltran...that's just amazing. He'll be the new President of the Club (or whatever title club's have...Grand Poo-bah?)There's no way to actually get a list of stolen base %'s on baseballreference, so I just took the list of 300 steal players and checked to see who was over the 80% bar. It was an arbitrary number, 300 steals, but I'm sad I missed Beltran. He might be the most underrated player in the National League.
10:43 PM Oct 24th

RoelTorres
Aw, man. Tony Womack gains membership in one of the most elite clubs in baseball history and he can't get any love? Poor guy.
10:39 PM Oct 24th

evanecurb
Nice work, Dave. Are their no caught stealing numbers available for players in eras before Morgan/Lopes, or were there no qualifiers before them?
9:49 PM Oct 24th

enamee
Interesting article. I kept waiting for some mention of Carlos Beltran, but it never came... Beltran's got 275 steals at an 88% success rate. If you lower the bar to 250 steals rather than 300, Beltran laps the field, and of course he should clear 300 easily.
9:46 PM Oct 24th

The 80% Club

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