August 12 Poll Report

August 12, 2019
 

 

August 12 Poll Report

Good morning everybody.   Consistent with what I told you Saturday, I (a) skipped a day between poll reports, and (b) eliminated two old polls a day, rather than one, so that there are six changes to the poll list since my last report, rather than two.   Despite that, the changes to the Support Scores are pretty modest.  In the poll of August 10th, Joe Biden won and lost the poll, winning it in the sense of having the highest percentage, but losing it in the sense of meeting expectations based on previous polling.  Actually everybody in the poll fell short of expectations other than the hard-charging Andrew Yang:

Scores

Biden

777

Yang

467

de Blasio

92

Moulton

101

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Biden

54

Yang

32

de Blasio

6

Moulton

7

Actual

Biden

49

Yang

42

de Blasio

4

Moulton

6

 

Those candidates control 14% of the vote, and expectations for the poll were 82% accurate.  In yesterday’s poll Amy Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders tied for first at 33%, but I marked Bernie as the winner because he exceeded expectations:

Scores

Sanders

380

Klobuchar

472

Williamson

108

O'Rourke

281

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Sanders

31

Klobuchar

38

Williamson

9

O'Rourke

23

Actual

Sanders

33

Klobuchar

33

Williamson

11

O'Rourke

24

 

Those candidates control 12% of the vote, actually almost 12½%, and predictions for the poll were 89% accurate.  Despite winning that poll, Bernie is down in today’s standings due to the removal of an old poll. 

Since our last report two days ago, eight candidates are up or down at least 1/10th of one percent:

Andrew Yang is up 40 points due to outperforming expectations in the poll of August 10.

Elizabeth Warren is up 23 points due to the removal of an old poll.

Tulsi Gabbard is up 16 points, and Kamala Harris up 12 points, due to the removal of old polls.

Beto O’Rourke is down 11 points, despite exceeding expectations by 1% in yesterday’s poll, because of the removal of an old poll.

Jay Inslee is down 13 points for some reason.  Inslee is in a sustained decline in my polls, and just misses being marked in Gray.  He is down 24% in the last 30 days.

Pete Buttigieg is down 21 points due to the removal of an old poll, and Buttigieg has dropped back below Harris—not really significant changes at that level.  

Bernie Sanders is down 22 points due to the removal of old polls. 

These are the current Support Scores:

Rank

First

Last

Support

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1910

2

Kamala

Harris

986

3

Pete

Buttigieg

960

4

Joe

Biden

782

5

Andrew

Yang

507

6

Donald

Trump

493

7

Amy

Klobuchar

453

8

Cory

Booker

445

9

Bernie

Sanders

385

10

Julian

Castro

378

11

Tulsi

Gabbard

358

12

Beto

O'Rourke

265

13

John

Hickenlooper

263

14

Michael

Bennet

256

15

Kirsten

Gillibrand

229

16

Jay

Inslee

226

17

Bill

Weld

213

18

Howard

Schultz

163

19

Steve

Bullock

148

20

Tim

Ryan

147

21

John

Delaney

116

22

Marianne

Williamson

111

23

Seth

Moulton

100

24

Bill

de Blasio

90

25

Tom

Steyer

54

 

Thank you all for reading. 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (5 Comments, most recent shown first)

klamb819
Bill & statsguru:

It might also help to disable cookies for those visits to candidates' sites.
6:17 PM Aug 13th
 
bjames

Responding to

StatsGuru
I am getting bombarded with Tom Steyer internet ads. That's what I get for visiting a candidate's web site to figure out his positions.

Thanks. I'll try to remember to use in-private browsing if I visit any of those sites.
2:02 PM Aug 13th
 
shthar
Isn't Seabiscuit in the, running, now?


1:43 PM Aug 13th
 
LesLein
Michael Bennett said something the other day that I really liked. I don’t have the exact words but he said he’d deal with problems like North Korea but otherwise we wouldn’t hear from him for two weeks. He may miss the next round of debates but I’d appreciate that. I wish we could be more like Switzerland, where lots of citizens don’t even know who the president is.
9:23 AM Aug 13th
 
StatsGuru
I am getting bombarded with Tom Steyer internet ads. That's what I get for visiting a candidate's web site to figure out his positions.
8:03 PM Aug 12th
 
 
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