August 12 Poll Report

Good morning everybody.   Consistent with what I told you Saturday, I (a) skipped a day between poll reports, and (b) eliminated two old polls a day, rather than one, so that there are six changes to the poll list since my last report, rather than two.   Despite that, the changes to the Support Scores are pretty modest.  In the poll of August 10^th, Joe Biden won and lost the poll, winning it in the sense of having the highest percentage, but losing it in the sense of meeting expectations based on previous polling.  Actually everybody in the poll fell short of expectations other than the hard-charging Andrew Yang:

Those candidates control 14% of the vote, and expectations for the poll were 82% accurate.  In yesterday’s poll Amy Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders tied for first at 33%, but I marked Bernie as the winner because he exceeded expectations:

Those candidates control 12% of the vote, actually almost 12½%, and predictions for the poll were 89% accurate.  Despite winning that poll, Bernie is down in today’s standings due to the removal of an old poll. 

Since our last report two days ago, eight candidates are up or down at least 1/10^th of one percent:

Andrew Yang is up 40 points due to outperforming expectations in the poll of August 10.

Elizabeth Warren is up 23 points due to the removal of an old poll.

Tulsi Gabbard is up 16 points, and Kamala Harris up 12 points, due to the removal of old polls.

Beto O’Rourke is down 11 points, despite exceeding expectations by 1% in yesterday’s poll, because of the removal of an old poll.

Jay Inslee is down 13 points for some reason.  Inslee is in a sustained decline in my polls, and just misses being marked in Gray.  He is down 24% in the last 30 days.

Pete Buttigieg is down 21 points due to the removal of an old poll, and Buttigieg has dropped back below Harris—not really significant changes at that level.  

Bernie Sanders is down 22 points due to the removal of old polls. 

These are the current Support Scores:

Thank you all for reading.