August 3 Poll Report

August 3, 2019
 

August 3 Poll Report

            Good afternoon everybody.   In the first sign of movement as a result of the end-of-July debates, Tulsi Gabbard has taken a major step forward.  In Poll #115, the poll taken on August 2nd, Gabbard took points away from all three competitors, and moved forward by 52 points in the Support Score standings.  This is the summary of yesterday’s poll:

Scores

Gillibrand

252

Harris

1032

Castro

378

Gabbard

273

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Gillibrand

13

Harris

53

Castro

20

Gabbard

14

Actual

Gillibrand

6

Harris

47

Castro

17

Gabbard

29

 

            The predictions for the poll were 69% accurate—7 points off on Gillibrand, 6 points off on Harris, 3 points off on Castro, and 15 points off on Gabbard.   Removed from the data considered relevant was the poll of June 13, which was Elizabeth Warren (44%), Pete Buttigieg (26%), Joe Biden (25%) and Cory Booker (5%).  Booker has rallied strongly in recent weeks, so the removal of that old and terrible poll helps him quite significantly.   Since yesterday:

            Cory Booker is up 57 points as a result of the removal of the June 13th poll,

            Tulsi Gabbard is up 52 points due to beating expectations in yesterday’s poll, although it should be noted that she did not win the poll outright; Kamala Harris still won the poll,

            Julian Castro is down 11 points as a result of his disappointing vote share in yesterday’s poll,

            Pete Buttigieg is down 24 points as a result of the removal of the June 13th poll, and

            Kirsten Gillibrand is down 27 points as a result of getting only 6% in yesterday’s poll.  In my opinion, Gillibrand’s campaign is in serious trouble, and could be headed toward an early pullout.   She had a surge of support in these polls in June, and her Support Score peaked at 364 on June 20.   Now she is at 225.   She has made the Gray List, which now has two entries—her and Joe Biden.  She can fall probably as low as 150 and remain marginally relevant, but if she falls below 150 I think her candidacy is dead. 

            A total of 306 points changed hands yesterday, which is a relatively high total, the highest single-day total in a little more than a week, although only six candidates had notable movements. 

Rank

First

Last

Support

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1830

2

Kamala

Harris

1022

3

Pete

Buttigieg

971

4

Joe

Biden

774

5

Donald

Trump

507

6

Andrew

Yang

468

7

Amy

Klobuchar

448

8

Cory

Booker

437

9

Bernie

Sanders

399

10

Julian

Castro

367

11

Tulsi

Gabbard

325

12

Beto

O'Rourke

292

13

John

Hickenlooper

266

14

Michael

Bennet

226

15

Kirsten

Gillibrand

225

16

Bill

Weld

219

17

Jay

Inslee

219

18

Howard

Schultz

169

19

Steve

Bullock

140

20

Tim

Ryan

135

21

John

Delaney

110

22

Seth

Moulton

101

23

Marianne

Williamson

99

24

Mike

Gravel

95

25

Bill

de Blasio

92

 

            Thank you for your interest.   Sorry this is so late in the day; I am still traveling. 

 

 

 
 

COMMENTS (15 Comments, most recent shown first)

OldBackstop
So maybe Bill's unforced error of a pollster's opinion was prescient, but it doesn't make the habit of publishing opinions, positive or negative, in advance of polling on your same twitter account good science, or.....er.....unwacky?

I mean....help me out here people? Jaysus.....
11:10 PM Aug 4th
 
MarisFan61
......ON THE OTHER HAND (i.e. in line with Bill's results), the 'betting odds' show a nice jump for Gabbard in recent days. These often (I think usually) anticipate what will be shown very soon in general polling.

In the past week, her perceived chance of being the nominee has risen from 1.4 to 3.1%, and of being elected has risen from 0.9 to 1.9%. Still very low of course, but those are substantial jumps.
7:14 PM Aug 4th
 
LesLein
The news media run stories about candidates. They also express opinions. Yet they run polls. No one says they should stop doing stories or drop their polls. Since Bill’s polls almost daily it’s unrealistic to expect him to avoid expressing his views. I’ve seen multiple online forums where readers were impressed by Gabbard, so his tweet wasn’t unusual. I make allowances for the fact that the sample is skewed. I think it still is useful in addressing the Democratic candidates’ relative strength.​
6:49 PM Aug 4th
 
OldBackstop
The more valid and compelling a prepoll opinion by a pollster, the more poisoned the well.

In this case, and the others, each poll is intertwined...it can't easily be tossed as bad data.
2:41 PM Aug 4th
 
bdhopkin
No emojis...
That should have read "(sad face)".
11:39 AM Aug 4th
 
bdhopkin
??
11:37 AM Aug 4th
 
LesLein
The tweet is right. Gabbard is well mannered and poised. She’ll have to do more than attack Harris to continue to get attention.
11:37 AM Aug 4th
 
ksclacktc
Give me some Tulsi. Leftist Dems don't like her. Nassim Taleb is a proponent of hers, that gives here a leg up with me. No pun intended, she is also very attractive. And, she actually possesses ideas that don't line up with both party line platforms. That is the biggest reason for me.
10:51 AM Aug 4th
 
MarisFan61
The only implication is that I don't absolutely assume something like that which I hadn't seen myself to be true, no matter who posted it. I would always include a disclaimer like that. It wasn't personal.​
10:22 AM Aug 4th
 
OldBackstop
Oh, Maris, there was also a tweet by Bill about Trumps unsuitability to be president a few days before he "missed" by 30 points off Bill's expectations among his fans.

Huh. Weird. Coincidences are so odd. Not sure why Gallup bothers to be so apolitical. Old Fogey Dipshtts!
2:36 AM Aug 4th
 
OldBackstop
Seeing as Tulsi polled, literally, at "0" in two national polls last week, something made her a champ among Bill's followers.

It's unknowable. I mean, to us dipshit mortals.

(PS was the implication that perhaps I crafted that tweet out of whole cloth, Maris? I c and ped it from the BJOL twitter account. It warn't hidden or nuthin'...)
2:24 AM Aug 4th
 
MarisFan61
That tweet of Aug. 1 (assuming it really said that) would seem absolutely to be a factor -- at least an eminently possible one -- in her result as noted here. It can't be ignored, and in fact I'd suggest that a mention of it should have been included in this article. (Like, "By the way, I have to admit, it's quite possible that my tweet of the other day....")

In fact, I would tend to assume that it's the reason for her showing here -- not just the main reason, but the reason.

How to know: Well, we'll never 'really' know, but if she quickly recedes to where she'd been, I'd say that would be pretty suggestive.
1:13 AM Aug 4th
 
chuck
Bill, I read today that Mike Gravel has ended his campaign. Thought I'd mention it, as it might not be covered too prominently in the news.
12:43 AM Aug 4th
 
OldBackstop
PS. I apologize for my stupidity in polling issues. I understand I can't comprehend what you are achieving.


11:54 PM Aug 3rd
 
OldBackstop
I don't suppose that Tweet like this earlier in the week could have any influence on poll of your fans?

Bill James Online
August 1
@billjamesonline
Does Tulsi, to anyone but me, seem peculiarly well mannered? I wonder, on one hand, whether she is too well mannered to be in the fray, and, on the other hand, whether her sense of deep respect might not be a strong positive contrast with her ERO. Expected Republican Opponent.

11:52 PM Aug 3rd
 
 
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