August 3 Poll Report

            Good afternoon everybody.   In the first sign of movement as a result of the end-of-July debates, Tulsi Gabbard has taken a major step forward.  In Poll #115, the poll taken on August 2^nd, Gabbard took points away from all three competitors, and moved forward by 52 points in the Support Score standings.  This is the summary of yesterday’s poll:

            The predictions for the poll were 69% accurate—7 points off on Gillibrand, 6 points off on Harris, 3 points off on Castro, and 15 points off on Gabbard.   Removed from the data considered relevant was the poll of June 13, which was Elizabeth Warren (44%), Pete Buttigieg (26%), Joe Biden (25%) and Cory Booker (5%).  Booker has rallied strongly in recent weeks, so the removal of that old and terrible poll helps him quite significantly.   Since yesterday:

            Cory Booker is up 57 points as a result of the removal of the June 13^th poll,

            Tulsi Gabbard is up 52 points due to beating expectations in yesterday’s poll, although it should be noted that she did not win the poll outright; Kamala Harris still won the poll,

            Julian Castro is down 11 points as a result of his disappointing vote share in yesterday’s poll,

            Pete Buttigieg is down 24 points as a result of the removal of the June 13^th poll, and

            Kirsten Gillibrand is down 27 points as a result of getting only 6% in yesterday’s poll.  In my opinion, Gillibrand’s campaign is in serious trouble, and could be headed toward an early pullout.   She had a surge of support in these polls in June, and her Support Score peaked at 364 on June 20.   Now she is at 225.   She has made the Gray List, which now has two entries—her and Joe Biden.  She can fall probably as low as 150 and remain marginally relevant, but if she falls below 150 I think her candidacy is dead. 

            A total of 306 points changed hands yesterday, which is a relatively high total, the highest single-day total in a little more than a week, although only six candidates had notable movements. 

            Thank you for your interest.   Sorry this is so late in the day; I am still traveling.