August 6 Poll Report

Good afternoon everybody.   I have not posted anything for two days because I have been wholly occupied with other tasks, so I have some catching up to do here.   Since my last report, Mike Gravel has pulled out of the race and, I think, thrown his miniscule support to Bernie Sanders, and also I have now polled Tom Steyer four times, so I can now add his Support Score to the data.  He is polling about half of what Mike Gravel was, so. . .not a big impact there.  

Despite three polls having been taken since my last report and two changes to the roster of competitors, actually not a lot has changed.  The sum total of plusses and minuses for the three days (183 points) would be about the average number for one day.   But I’ll run down the polls one at a time anyway.   In the poll of August 3, Bill Weld got the largest vote share, but Tim Ryan was the winner in the sense of doing better than predicted by previous polls:

Ryan is helped by that poll, but not a lot because there aren’t a lot of points on the table there.   Ryan has been steadily gathering a little bit of support, not much as a share of the whole, but quite a lot relative to where he was.   On June 26, just before the first round of debates, I had him at 80 (8/10^th of one percent.)   He crossed over 90 on July 1, hit 100 on July 6, 110 on July 13, 120 on July 15, 130 on July 23, and now, today, he hits 140.   I’m not saying that makes him a viable candidate, but he is gathering together a small band of followers.  Predictions for that poll were 86% accurate, and the four candidates represented about 5% of the total support. 

In the poll of August 4^th, Jay Inslee over-achieved by 15 points and won the group, in part because I included in the poll a candidate (Mike Gravel) who had withdrawn the previous day, but this is no less noteworthy for Inslee because he picked up the support, rather than Michael Bennet, who has a similar score:

That poll was 70% consistent with previous polling, and the candidates represented 6½% of the total market.  The biggest surprise of the three days of polling, actually, was that the much-maligned Beto O’Rourke showed that he is still clearly preferred by my respondents to the weak group against whom he happened to be pitted:

Previous polling had suggested that O’Rourke’s support had declined to the point at which he was not much stronger than John Hickenlooper.  This poll showed pretty clearly that he is still much stronger than Hickenlooper, as he over-performed by 17 points, although most of that actually came at the expense of the inactive Howard Schultz, who is expected to resume campaigning in September.  Predictions for that poll were 67% accurate, and the candidates represent 8% of the total support. 

Since my last report:

Donald Trump is up 34 points as a result of the removal from the data of the poll of June 16^th,

Beto O’Rourke is up 18 points as a result of doing well in yesterday’s poll,

Michael Bennet is up 18 points as a result of the removal of the poll of June 15^th, in which Bennet got only 8% of the vote,

Bernie Sanders is up 8 points as a result of the removal of the poll of June 14^th from the data,

Jay Inslee is up 7 points as a result of the poll of August 5^th, in which Inslee got 49%, and

Tim Ryan is up 5 points as a result of the poll of August 4^th, explained before. 

Bill de Blasio is down 6 points as a result of his poor performance in the poll of August 4^th,

Howard Schultz is down 9 points as a result of his poor performance in yesterday’s poll,

Kamala Harris is down 12 points as a result of the removal of the poll of June 15^th, in which she got 64% of the vote, and

Kirsten Gillibrand is down 14 points as a result of the removal of the poll of June 14^th, in which she got 38% of the vote. 

Also, in the future I am going to change policy and no longer report changes smaller than 10 points, since a 10-point change in Support represents only 1/10^th of one percent, and thus should probably be considered not statistically significant. 

Candidates in green (below) are those whose support scores have improved at least 33% in the last thirty days.  The green list had at one point swollen to 12 candidates, but it is gradually coming under control; we are down to eight now.  Marianne Williamson is finally off the list, at least temporarily; she’s still up 32%, and could easily pop back onto the list.  Julian Castro has also dropped off the list, and that is more serious, first because he is a more serious candidate, but also because he has failed to sustain his improvement after the June 27-28 debate.  He vaulted forward from 205 on June 27 to 458 on July 13, but has since dropped back to 372, up only 3% in the last month.  For his sake I hope he raised some money in there, because if he didn’t his moment has come and gone.  These are the current Support Scores:

I’d like to add a brief editorial opinion if I could.  A lot of people are saying that the lesser candidates have failed and aren’t drawing any support and it is time for them to drop out, etc.  I really don’t agree with that.  It’s a long, long, long time until the election, and a pretty long time until Iowa.  The good part of a long campaign is that it gives candidates time to become known, time to say what they have to say. 

As I see it, there are a lot of good people in this race, and others who are at least interesting and might be someone that I could enthusiastically support.  Michael Bennet, John Delaney, Amy Klobuchar, Tim Ryan, Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard. . .these seem like substantial people who have something to say.  I say, let them say it before you force them off the stage.  Let them make their case; let them show us what they’ve got.   If you don’t want to watch or listen, nobody is forcing you to.   But I say, knock off the complaining and the ridicule about the lesser candidates.  There is value in listening to them. 

Thank you all for reading.   I am also going to attach here and re-publish the report of August 3^rd, since (a) I didn’t get around to posting that one until after midnight eastern time, and (b) Tulsi Gabbard’s performance in that poll was more significant than anything that has happened in the last three days.   Thank you all for your interest in this effort; thank you all for voting. 

August 3 Poll Report

            Good afternoon everybody.   In the first sign of movement as a result of the end-of-July debates, Tulsi Gabbard has taken a major step forward.  In Poll #115, the poll taken on August 2^nd, Gabbard took points away from all three competitors, and moved forward by 52 points in the Support Score standings.  This is the summary of yesterday’s poll:

            The predictions for the poll were 69% accurate—7 points off on Gillibrand, 6 points off on Harris, 3 points off on Castro, and 15 points off on Gabbard.   Removed from the data considered relevant was the poll of June 13, which was Elizabeth Warren (44%), Pete Buttigieg (26%), Joe Biden (25%) and Cory Booker (5%).  Booker has rallied strongly in recent weeks, so the removal of that old and terrible poll helps him quite significantly.   Since yesterday:

            Cory Booker is up 57 points as a result of the removal of the June 13^th poll,

            Tulsi Gabbard is up 52 points due to beating expectations in yesterday’s poll, although it should be noted that she did not win the poll outright; Kamala Harris still won the poll,

            Julian Castro is down 11 points as a result of his disappointing vote share in yesterday’s poll,

            Pete Buttigieg is down 24 points as a result of the removal of the June 13^th poll, and

            Kirsten Gillibrand is down 27 points as a result of getting only 6% in yesterday’s poll.  In my opinion, Gillibrand’s campaign is in serious trouble, and could be headed toward an early pullout.   She had a surge of support in these polls in June, and her Support Score peaked at 364 on June 20.   Now she is at 225.   She has made the Gray List, which now has two entries—her and Joe Biden.  She can fall probably as low as 150 and remain marginally relevant, but if she falls below 150 I think her candidacy is dead. 

            A total of 306 points changed hands yesterday, which is a relatively high total, the highest single-day total in a little more than a week, although only six candidates had notable movements. 

            Thank you for your interest.   Sorry this is so late in the day; I am still traveling.