Introduction
Let’s play a little "Carnac":
A: Marty McFly and Dave Stieb
Q: Name 2 people who benefit from "Alternate History".
We’re all familiar with the story of Marty McFly, the main character in the "Back to the Future" movie trilogy. Marty had an unsatisfying family life in 1985 – a jailbird uncle, siblings that were losers, a mom who drank too much, and a father who had a miserable job where his boss ("Biff") is the same jerk who bullied him in high school. What happens from there? Combine a crazy scientist and a time-traveling DeLorean and go back 30 years into the past, and, despite a few bumps in the road that nearly erased Marty from existence, you return to the present, voila, Marty has that brand new vehicle he had his heart set on, and his family is now a bunch of winners. Even the bully, rather than being the boss and tormentor of Marty’s dad, now washes his cars.
All because of a little intervention and the resulting alternate history. And everything was fine until Part 2, when Marty got greedy and inadvertently gave "Future Biff" the idea to go back in time and give "Young Biff" the sports magazine that allowed him to win a fortune by betting on sporting events where he knew the outcome. But that’s another story……
That is the premise for this article. I wanted to take a look at how things might be different if we applied today’s Cy Young Award standards to the past and created a bit of our own alternate history. Who might have won some awards, and who might have lost some? Would certain players be thought of differently now when we reflect on their careers?
Setup
In the last article I wrote, I referenced a tool developed by Tom Tango a few years ago that attempts to project the winners of the Cy Young awards each year by calculating a point total based on 4 simple data markers (innings pitched, earned runs allowed, strikeouts, and wins). The more points you have, the more likely you are to win the award.
It’s appealing to me because:
1) It’s proven to be very accurate
2) It’s very simple
The basic formula is Cy Young Points = (IP/2 - ER) + SO/10 + W (there’s another version he developed that would extend to relievers as well, but for the most part, the overwhelming majority of true Cy Young Award contenders at this point are starters). It captures 4 key attributes that appear to be fundamental in voter evaluation of starting pitchers:
- Workload (Innings)
- Run prevention (Earned Runs)
- Ability to make batters miss (Strikeouts)
- Contributing to team victories (Wins)
It does not incorporate WAR, ERA+, FIP, or any other "advanced metric". It’s proven to be very accurate simply by using only those 4 basic stats. In the past 26 Cy Young Award votes (covering 13 years), the formula identifies the correct winner 23 times, and in the other 3, it has the actual winner no lower than 2nd. It also has done a really good job of predicting who the other top finishers will be.
Note that, like Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor tool, Tango’s Cy Young Points does not try to determine who deserves to win the award – it’s merely trying to predict who will win. And, it does a really good job of that.
Now, one thing I like about it is that it is designed to reflect the current trends in Cy Young voting. It’s clear, especially when you see pitchers like Felix Hernandez (13-12) in 2010 and Jacob deGrom (10-9) in 2018 receiving the award despite mediocre W-L records, that wins don’t carry as much weight as they used to, and voters are putting more weight on run prevention, workloads, and strikeouts. Wins still matter to some degree, but it seems to be true that they matter more in a complementary sense, where if 2 pitchers are close in other regards, the one with more wins might get an edge. But, simply piling up a large win advantage by itself without having strong performances in other categories doesn’t carry the weight that it used to.
So, what I decided to do, with a lot of help from baseballmusings.com (which has a page that lets you plug in a date to see how many Tango Cy Young Points a player had for a given point in time in a season), is to take Tango’s Cy Young Award prediction formula, which clearly captures the standards of today, and apply it to all of the years dating back to the first Cy Young Award season of 1956 to see who might have won the award instead. In effect, creating our own "alternate history".
Now, I must confess, this isn’t a "serious" exercise. It’s more what I would call an exercise in funtility. Not futility, mind you…….but "fun"-tility. It’s meant to be fun, to perform a little bit of "what if" analysis, even though it won’t change anything. After all, no one is going to take those awards away from anyone, nor should they. Awards provide a snapshot in time, and there’s a lot to be said for how players are evaluated by on-the-spot observers in real time, using whatever means and information they have at their disposal to confer honors. There’s nothing that says that today’s standards are better than yesterday’s.
In fact, I acknowledge that there are issues with even doing this, as pitchers’ stats were very different in years past – they typically made more starts, carried heavier workloads, didn’t strike out as many batters per inning, and you would tend to see more impressive seasonal win totals. The dynamic and the context of pitchers’ stats were very different then vs. now, so in that sense it may not be logical, even in a fun exercise, to imply that you can take a formula designed to predict award winners in today’s game and apply it to previous eras. Nevertheless, I decided to do it anyway to have a little fun and just to see what results it yielded.
So, it’s time to pack a bunch of baseball writers into a Delorean, set the speed for 88 miles per hour, crank up the flux capacitor to 1.21 gigawatts, and travel back to each year since 1956 to see what kind of alternate history we can create.
Back to the Past
Let’s begin with an example of how this works. Ironically, we begin in 1956, only 1 year after the point in time that our buddy Marty traveled into the past. 1956 marked the inaugural Cy Young Award and, as you probably know, from 1956 through 1966 only one Cy Young was awarded annually for the Major Leagues as a whole, rather than a separate award for each league.
Let’s take a look at 1956. The Cy Young award went to Don Newcombe, who had an impressive 27-7 record along with a 3.06 ERA for the pennant-winning Dodgers. Newcombe was also named the NL MVP for that year.
This is the result of the voting per baseball-reference.com:
|
Rank
|
Name
|
Tm
|
Vote Pts
|
1st Place
|
Share
|
WAR
|
W
|
L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
BB
|
SO
|
|
1
|
Don Newcombe
|
BRO
|
10.0
|
10.0
|
63%
|
4.5
|
27
|
7
|
3.06
|
268.0
|
46
|
139
|
|
2
|
Sal Maglie
|
BRO
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
25%
|
5.0
|
13
|
5
|
2.89
|
196.0
|
54
|
110
|
|
3
|
Whitey Ford
|
NYY
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
6%
|
5.2
|
19
|
6
|
2.47
|
225.2
|
84
|
141
|
|
3
|
Warren Spahn
|
MLN
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
6%
|
5.5
|
20
|
11
|
2.78
|
281.1
|
52
|
128
|
It was an interesting vote. The ballot format at that time consisted of each voter voting for just a single pitcher. Newcombe won, but it wasn’t a complete runaway, as Newcombe’s teammate Maglie also got 4 votes despite a modest 13-5 record. I’m actually kind of surprised that Maglie finished 2nd ahead of many others who had significantly higher win totals (Maglie also finished 2nd in the NL MVP vote that year, also behind Newcombe). The only things I can figure are that:
1) Maglie pitched for the pennant-winning Dodgers, and that carried some weight
2) Maglie was terrific down the stretch, going 8-1 in his last 10 starts, including tossing a no-hitter in late September, and the Dodgers ended up winning a tight race by 1 game over the Braves and 2 over the Reds. I suspect the voters were impressed by those key, clutch performances.
Anyway, what if we applied the Tango formula to 1956? Here would be the top contenders:
|
Name
|
W
|
L
|
IP
|
ER
|
SO
|
ERA
|
Tango Cy Young Points
|
|
Herb Score
|
20
|
9
|
249.3
|
70
|
263
|
2.53
|
100.97
|
|
Early Wynn
|
20
|
9
|
277.7
|
84
|
158
|
2.72
|
90.63
|
|
Warren Spahn
|
20
|
11
|
281.3
|
87
|
128
|
2.78
|
86.47
|
|
Whitey Ford
|
19
|
6
|
225.7
|
62
|
141
|
2.47
|
83.93
|
|
Don Newcombe
|
27
|
7
|
268.0
|
91
|
139
|
3.06
|
83.90
|
|
Johnny Antonelli
|
20
|
13
|
258.3
|
82
|
145
|
2.86
|
81.67
|
|
Frank Lary
|
21
|
13
|
294.0
|
103
|
165
|
3.15
|
81.50
|
|
Lew Burdette
|
19
|
10
|
256.3
|
77
|
110
|
2.70
|
81.17
|
|
Billy Pierce
|
20
|
9
|
276.3
|
102
|
192
|
3.32
|
75.37
|
|
Bob Lemon
|
20
|
14
|
255.3
|
86
|
94
|
3.03
|
71.07
|
|
Bob Friend
|
17
|
17
|
314.3
|
121
|
166
|
3.46
|
69.77
|
|
Jack Harshman
|
15
|
11
|
226.7
|
78
|
143
|
3.10
|
64.63
|
|
Ron Kline
|
14
|
18
|
264.0
|
99
|
125
|
3.38
|
59.50
|
|
Paul Foytack
|
15
|
13
|
256.0
|
102
|
184
|
3.59
|
59.40
|
|
Sal Maglie
|
13
|
5
|
196.0
|
63
|
110
|
2.89
|
59.00
|
As you can see, Newcombe had a big advantage in wins, and he did carry a pretty decent workload, but several others had lower ERA’s and more impressive strikeout totals. This formula would have Newcombe in a fairly tight cluster among several pitchers like Spahn, Ford (who led the Majors in ERA), Antonelli, Lary, and Burdette.
The winner according to this approach would be the young phenom, Herb Score. Score had 7 fewer wins than Newcombe and about 20 fewer innings pitched, but he was dominant in strikeouts (he struck out 263 batters that year, 37% more than the #2 man, Billy Pierce of the White Sox with 192) and finished just behind Ford for the lowest ERA in the Majors. Applying this formula, Score would have been predicted to win the award.
One other thing. As we go along, I’m going to presume that, by today’s standards, no relievers would be named as an alternate history Cy Young Award winner. 9 relievers have won the Cy Young award, but since 1992 (when Dennis Eckersley won) only 1 reliever (Eric Gagne in 2003) has won. My apologies to them, but relievers won’t be represented in our alternate history.
Anyway, that’s how this works. Let’s look at some results, one group at a time.
Group #1 – 1956-1966
This first group captures the era when there was only 1 Cy Young Award winner for the Major Leagues as a whole. To save some time and space, I’m not going to list all the stats for both pitchers each year, but will call out some observations as we go along.
Note – The green highlights indicate that a different winner would be assumed using today’s standards. No highlight means the same pitcher would be expected to win.
|
Year
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
1956
|
Don Newcombe
|
5th
|
Herb Score
|
|
1957
|
Warren Spahn
|
2nd
|
Jim Bunning
|
|
1958
|
Bob Turley
|
6th
|
Whitey Ford
|
|
1959
|
Early Wynn
|
6th
|
Sam Jones
|
|
1960
|
Vern Law
|
6th
|
Don Drysdale
|
|
1961
|
Whitey Ford
|
1st
|
Whitey Ford
|
|
1962
|
Don Drysdale
|
1st
|
Don Drysdale
|
|
1963
|
Sandy Koufax
|
1st
|
Sandy Koufax
|
|
1964
|
Dean Chance
|
1st
|
Dean Chance
|
|
1965
|
Sandy Koufax
|
1st
|
Sandy Koufax
|
|
1966
|
Sandy Koufax
|
1st
|
Sandy Koufax
|
The first 5 seasons under this premise would have resulted in different pitchers winning, with most of the actual winners finishing 5th or 6th.
1958 is an interesting one – Turley took home the award with a 21-7, 2.97 season. Turley’s teammate Ford did not receive any Cy Young votes, and his 14-7 record doesn’t compare to Turley’s, but Ford did lead the Majors (by a wide margin) with a 2.01 ERA.
In 1959, Jones basically pitched better than Wynn, but Wynn pitched for the AL pennant-winning White Sox, and that I’m sure helped him when it came time to hand out the award. 1960 was kind of similar – Law had a much better record (20-9) than Drysdale (15-14), but Drysdale, by any other reasonable standard, was a better pitcher that year. As you can see, the early Cy Young winners were generally on pennant-winning teams, as clearly that was a factor that helped those candidates.
The last 6 seasons of this first group were pretty straightforward, as the winners all had pretty dominant seasons across the board (including 3 spectacular Koufax seasons) , and the formula implies that they all would still win under today’s standards. Here are some of the impressive stat lines for that group:
|
Year
|
Winner
|
Team
|
W-L
|
ERA
|
IP
|
SO
|
|
1961
|
Whitey Ford
|
New York (A)
|
25-4
|
3.21
|
283
|
209
|
|
1962
|
Don Drysdale
|
Los Angeles (N)
|
25-9
|
2.83
|
314.1
|
232
|
|
1963
|
Sandy Koufax
|
Los Angeles (N)
|
25-5
|
1.88
|
311
|
306
|
|
1964
|
Dean Chance
|
Los Angeles (A)
|
20-9
|
1.65
|
278.1
|
207
|
|
1965
|
Sandy Koufax
|
Los Angeles (N)
|
26-8
|
2.04
|
335.2
|
382
|
|
1966
|
Sandy Koufax
|
Los Angeles (N)
|
27-9
|
1.73
|
323
|
317
|
Group #2 – 1967-1979
The next group begins with 1967, the first season that the leagues named separate Cy Young Award winners. Over these 13 seasons (26 awards), the formula would imply that over half (14) would go to someone else now. Note that 1969 had a shared award (AL, Cuellar and McLain tied).
|
Year
|
Lg
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
1967
|
AL
|
Jim Lonborg
|
5th
|
Gary Peters
|
|
1967
|
NL
|
Mike McCormick
|
5th
|
Jim Bunning
|
|
1968
|
AL
|
Denny McLain
|
1st
|
Denny McLain
|
|
1968
|
NL
|
Bob Gibson
|
1st
|
Bob Gibson
|
|
1969
|
AL
|
Mike Cuellar
|
1st
|
Mike Cuellar
|
|
1969
|
AL
|
Denny McLain
|
2nd
|
|
|
1969
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
5th
|
Bob Gibson
|
|
1970
|
AL
|
Jim Perry
|
3rd
|
Sam McDowell
|
|
1970
|
NL
|
Bob Gibson
|
2nd
|
Tom Seaver
|
|
1971
|
AL
|
Vida Blue
|
1st
|
Vida Blue
|
|
1971
|
NL
|
Fergie Jenkins
|
2nd
|
Tom Seaver
|
|
1972
|
AL
|
Gaylord Perry
|
1st
|
Gaylord Perry
|
|
1972
|
NL
|
Steve Carlton
|
1st
|
Steve Carlton
|
|
1973
|
AL
|
Jim Palmer
|
3rd
|
Nolan Ryan
|
|
1973
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
1st
|
Tom Seaver
|
|
1974
|
AL
|
Catfish Hunter
|
3rd
|
Nolan Ryan
|
|
1974
|
NL
|
Mike Marshall
|
x
|
Phil Niekro
|
|
1975
|
AL
|
Jim Palmer
|
1st
|
Jim Palmer
|
|
1975
|
NL
|
Tom Seaver
|
1st
|
Tom Seaver
|
|
1976
|
AL
|
Jim Palmer
|
2nd
|
Frank Tanana
|
|
1976
|
NL
|
Randy Jones
|
3rd
|
J.R. Richard
|
|
1977
|
AL
|
Sparky Lyle
|
x
|
Nolan Ryan
|
|
1977
|
NL
|
Steve Carlton
|
1st
|
Steve Carlton
|
|
1978
|
AL
|
Ron Guidry
|
1st
|
Ron Guidry
|
|
1978
|
NL
|
Gaylord Perry
|
3rd
|
Phil Niekro
|
|
1979
|
AL
|
Mike Flanagan
|
1st
|
Mike Flanagan
|
|
1979
|
NL
|
Bruce Sutter
|
x
|
J.R. Richard
|
The 1970’s marked the first appearance of relievers as Cy Young winners. Marshall, Lyle, and Sutter each took home an award during this period.
Who would be the main beneficiaries during this period? Well, Nolan Ryan, in large part to the impressive strikeout totals, would be presumed to have won 3 awards at the expense of Jim Palmer (1973), Catfish Hunter (1974), and Sparky Lyle (1977). Is that reasonable? Actually, I think it is. For one thing, Ryan was among the top candidates anyway in all 3 of those ballots, finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd, respectively (with the ’73 and ’77 voting actually being pretty tight). His W-L records weren’t very sparkling, but the Angels were pretty bad in those days, and that likely wouldn’t have been held against him today, at least not to the same degree. His strikeout totals were, of course, awesome, and he was among the league ERA leaders in all of those years.
Who else? Well, J.R. Richard comes up as a 2-time winner in 1976 and 1979, although the formula implies a close race in 1976 among Richard, Randy Jones, Tom Seaver (despite a 14-11 record), and Jerry Koosman, so anyone could have won it. It does show that 1979 would have been a convincing win for Richard (and his 313 K’s), although Phil Niekro logged over 340 innings that season.
Speaking of Phil Niekro, he shows as winning 2 awards, in ’74 over Marshall, and ’78 over Perry. In both years, his impressive innings pitched totals would have weighed heavily in his favor..
Tom Seaver won 3 actual Cy Young’s in the ‘60’s and ‘70’s, but this projects him actually winning 4, losing his 1969 award to Bob Gibson, but picking up 2 incremental wins in ’70 and ’71 (Seaver led the league in ERA and K’s both of those years).
I’m not convinced that Seaver would have actually lost the ’69 award – the formula shows a pretty strong 6-man race with Seaver, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Bill Singer, Larry Dierker, and Gaylor Perry, and Seaver mostly rates behind the others because of fewer K’s and a lighter workload, but he certainly had the best W-L record of the group. And, of course, it was the year of the Amazin’ Mets. I suspect he would have still won, which would have translated to 5 total Cy Youngs in this alternate history.
Other winners in this time frame would include Gary Peters, Jim Bunning (to add to the mythical award he would have won in ‘57), Sam McDowell, and Frank Tanana.
Group #3 – 1980-1989
A fun decade – this approach implies that 12 of the 20 awards would go to other people, with most of the changes occurring in the first half of the decade.
|
Year
|
Lg
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
1980
|
AL
|
Steve Stone
|
3rd
|
Mike Norris
|
|
1980
|
NL
|
Steve Carlton
|
1st
|
Steve Carlton
|
|
1981
|
AL
|
Rollie Fingers
|
x
|
Steve McCatty
|
|
1981
|
NL
|
Fernando Valenzuela
|
2nd
|
Steve Carlton
|
|
1982
|
AL
|
Pete Vuckovich
|
6th
|
Dave Stieb
|
|
1982
|
NL
|
Steve Carlton
|
2nd
|
Steve Rogers
|
|
1983
|
AL
|
La Marr Hoyt
|
7th
|
Jack Morris
|
|
1983
|
NL
|
John Denny
|
2nd
|
Mario Soto
|
|
1984
|
AL
|
Willie Hernandez
|
x
|
Dave Stieb
|
|
1984
|
NL
|
Rick Sutcliffe
|
10th
|
Dwight Gooden
|
|
1985
|
AL
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
3rd
|
Dave Stieb
|
|
1985
|
NL
|
Dwight Gooden
|
1st
|
Dwight Gooden
|
|
1986
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1986
|
NL
|
Mike Scott
|
1st
|
Mike Scott
|
|
1987
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1987
|
NL
|
Steve Bedrosian
|
x
|
Orel Hershiser
|
|
1988
|
AL
|
Frank Viola
|
1st
|
Frank Viola
|
|
1988
|
NL
|
Orel Hershiser
|
1st
|
Orel Hershiser
|
|
1989
|
AL
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
1st
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
|
1989
|
NL
|
Mark Davis
|
x
|
Orel Hershiser
|
Observations on the 1980’s:
· This decade is already notorious for some controversial selections. Cy Young voters continued to fall in love with closers, continuing what began in the ‘70’s, by awarding the Cy Young 4 times to relievers.
This was also the decade that Bill James exploded on the scene (his Baseball Abstract reached a much larger audience in the early 1980’s), and you started to see a lot of debate around the traditional methods of evaluation. Steve Stone, Pete Vuckovich, and Lamar Hoyt had seasons that had analysts like Bill questioning the wisdom of the selections.
· Dave Stieb and Orel Hershiser both show as benefitting greatly from today’s standards.
This formula implies Stieb taking home the award in ’82, ’84, and ’85, replacing Vuckovich, Hernandez, and Saberhagen. Of course, those 3 likely benefitted from being key contributors on pennant-winning teams.
Stieb actually finished 4th in the voting in ’82, and tied for 7th both in ’84 and ’85. But, he finished first in WAR for AL pitchers in ’82, ’83, and ’84, and was 2nd in’85, and was also top 5 in ERA each of those years. I think he was clearly the best pitcher in the AL during that time frame, and probably the best in the Majors.
Hershiser took home an award in 1988 for his outstanding 23-8, 2.26 performance that year, but this formula implies that in both ’87 and ’89 (rather than closers Bedrosian and Davis), Hershiser could have won as well, which would have made him a 3-time winner, with all 3 coming in a row. It’s easy to see why he didn’t win either of those seasons – his record in ’87 was 16-16 with a 3.06 ERA, and in ’89 he was 15-15, despite a sparkling 2.31 ERA, and in those days, it was very unlikely that a pitcher with a .500 W-L record would win the award. Despite those records, Hershiser actually did place pretty high in the balloting both years – he finished 4th in 1987 (getting 2 first place votes), and 4th again in 1989 (picking up 1 first place vote, and finishing 2nd in the NL in ERA). It’s not difficult to see a re-vote going in his favor, especially using today’s standards.
So, here’s a question – what would Hershiser’s and Stieb’s Hall of Fame case looks like if they each had 3 Cy Young Awards under their belts? I think Hershiser has the better case….his career record’s a little stronger, plus he has the consecutive inning streak thing, as well as an outstanding postseason record, which would probably give him a leg up on Steib, but 3 Cy Youngs would give both of them some serious brownie points. There are pitchers like Bret Saberhagen and Johan Santana who have 2 Cy Youngs and aren’t in, but keeping out someone with 3? I think voters would give them serious consideration.
· By this methodology, Jack Morris, Mike Norris, Steve McCatty, Steve Rogers and Mario Soto would all now have a Cy Young award on their resumes that they could boast about.
Group #4 – 1990-1999
|
Year
|
Lg
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
1990
|
AL
|
Bob Welch
|
4th
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1990
|
NL
|
Doug Drabek
|
3rd
|
Frank Viola
|
|
1991
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1991
|
NL
|
Tom Glavine
|
1st
|
Tom Glavine
|
|
1992
|
AL
|
Dennis Eckersley
|
x
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1992
|
NL
|
Greg Maddux
|
1st
|
Greg Maddux
|
|
1993
|
AL
|
Jack McDowell
|
7th
|
Kevin Appier
|
|
1993
|
NL
|
Greg Maddux
|
1st
|
Greg Maddux
|
|
1994
|
AL
|
David Cone
|
1st
|
David Cone
|
|
1994
|
NL
|
Greg Maddux
|
1st
|
Greg Maddux
|
|
1995
|
AL
|
Randy Johnson
|
1st
|
Randy Johnson
|
|
1995
|
NL
|
Greg Maddux
|
1st
|
Greg Maddux
|
|
1996
|
AL
|
Pat Hentgen
|
1st
|
Pat Hentgen
|
|
1996
|
NL
|
John Smoltz
|
2nd
|
Kevin Brown
|
|
1997
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1997
|
NL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
1st
|
Pedro Martinez
|
|
1998
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
1st
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
1998
|
NL
|
Tom Glavine
|
3rd
|
Kevin Brown
|
|
1999
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
1st
|
Pedro Martinez
|
|
1999
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
1st
|
Randy Johnson
|
In contrast to the ‘80’s the 90’s look relatively uneventful, as only 6 of the 20 awards would theoretically have gone to other candidates. I think, in large part, that’s due to the presence of so many great pitchers who dominated the decade. Where as the 1980’s lacked true dominant pitchers, the ‘90’s gave us legendary Hall of Fame pitchers like Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. Those 6 pitchers claimed 14 of the 20 Cy Young awards, and actually 15 if you include Dennis Eckersley, who took home the award as a reliever in 1992. Even if you apply the formula to this era, those same pitchers would still have taken home 14 of the 20 awards. Great pitchers, great performances.
About the only significant shake up would be that Kevin Brown is identified as someone who could have taken home a couple of awards, in 1996 with the Marlins (17-11, 1.89) and 1998 with the Padres (18-7, 2.38). Would Brown have received much more support than the 2.1% he captured in his only time on the Hall of Fame ballot if he had a couple of Cy Youngs in his pocket?
1996, if put to a vote today, would be interesting – you have Smoltz with the stellar 24-8, 2.94 record vs. Brown. Smoltz would have had the advantage in wins by 7, but also in innings by about 20 (253 vs. 233), and a big margin in K’s (276 vs. 159). However, Brown’s ERA was a full run per game lower. In fact Brown’s ERA of 1.89 was about 80 points better than the #2 man in the NL (Maddux with 2.72), which was kind of reminiscent of deGrom’s margin in 2018 (1.70 vs. the 2.32 of the #2 man, Aaron Nola). Nowadays, a margin that big tends to bode well for the ERA leader.
The formula also implies that, in addition to 3 other Cy Youngs that Roger Clemens won in the decade, he could have taken home a couple more (in 1990 and 1992).
Group #5 – 2000-2009
|
Year
|
Lg
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
2000
|
AL
|
Pedro Martinez
|
1st
|
Pedro Martinez
|
|
2000
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
1st
|
Randy Johnson
|
|
2001
|
AL
|
Roger Clemens
|
4th
|
Mike Mussina
|
|
2001
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
1st
|
Randy Johnson
|
|
2002
|
AL
|
Barry Zito
|
2nd
|
Pedro Martinez
|
|
2002
|
NL
|
Randy Johnson
|
1st
|
Randy Johnson
|
|
2003
|
AL
|
Roy Halladay
|
4th
|
Pedro Martinez
|
|
2003
|
NL
|
Eric Gagne
|
x
|
Mark Prior
|
|
2004
|
AL
|
Johan Santana
|
1st
|
Johan Santana
|
|
2004
|
NL
|
Roger Clemens
|
3rd
|
Randy Johnson
|
|
2005
|
AL
|
Bartolo Colon
|
3rd
|
Johan Santana
|
|
2005
|
NL
|
Chris Carpenter
|
3rd
|
Roger Clemens
|
|
2006
|
AL
|
Johan Santana
|
1st
|
Johan Santana
|
|
2006
|
NL
|
Brandon Webb
|
1st
|
Brandon Webb
|
|
2007
|
AL
|
C.C. Sabathia
|
1st
|
C.C. Sabathia
|
|
2007
|
NL
|
Jake Peavy
|
1st
|
Jake Peavy
|
|
2008
|
AL
|
Cliff Lee
|
1st
|
Cliff Lee
|
|
2008
|
NL
|
Tim Lincecum
|
1st
|
Tim Lincecum
|
|
2009
|
AL
|
Zack Greinke
|
1st
|
Zack Greinke
|
|
2009
|
NL
|
Tim Lincecum
|
1st
|
Tim Lincecum
|
In the first decade of the 2000’s, there’s a bit of upheaval in the first half of decade, but then fairly stable over the last half.
The big news here is that the formula implies that Roger Clemens would have lost a couple of instances where he won, but that he would have picked up a new one that he didn’t win.
In addition, Johan Santana would have picked up a 3rd award (in 2005) which would have given him 3 in a row from 2004-2006. Now, that would have really made things interesting come Hall of Fame ballot time. Santana only received 2.4% of the vote in his lone appearance on the ballot (in 2018), in large part because he had a relatively short career. What if he had won 3 consecutive Cy Youngs, though? Would he have received significantly greater support?
Also notable – Pedro Martinez, who already has 3 actual Cy Young awards, could have picked up a couple of more, giving him 5 in total for his career.
Group #5 – 2010-2019
|
Year
|
Lg
|
Winner
|
Would Now Finish
|
Winner by Today's Standards
|
|
2010
|
AL
|
Felix Hernandez
|
1st
|
Felix Hernandez
|
|
2010
|
NL
|
Roy Halladay
|
1st
|
Roy Halladay
|
|
2011
|
AL
|
Justin Verlander
|
1st
|
Justin Verlander
|
|
2011
|
NL
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
1st
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
|
2012
|
AL
|
David Price
|
2nd
|
Justin Verlander
|
|
2012
|
NL
|
R.A. Dickey
|
1st
|
R.A. Dickey
|
|
2013
|
AL
|
Max Scherzer
|
1st
|
Max Scherzer
|
|
2013
|
NL
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
1st
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
|
2014
|
AL
|
Corey Kluber
|
2nd
|
Felix Hernandez
|
|
2014
|
NL
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
1st
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
|
2015
|
AL
|
Dallas Keuchel
|
1st
|
Dallas Keuchel
|
|
2015
|
NL
|
Jake Arrieta
|
1st
|
Jake Arrieta
|
|
2016
|
AL
|
Rick Porcello
|
2nd
|
Justin Verlander
|
|
2016
|
NL
|
Max Scherzer
|
1st
|
Max Scherzer
|
|
2017
|
AL
|
Corey Kluber
|
1st
|
Corey Kluber
|
|
2017
|
NL
|
Max Scherzer
|
1st
|
Max Scherzer
|
|
2018
|
AL
|
Blake Snell
|
1st
|
Blake Snell
|
|
2018
|
NL
|
Jacob deGrom
|
1st
|
Jacob deGrom
|
As you would expect, the current decade is pretty stable as the formula is pretty much spot on. But for what it’s worth, it implies that Verlander, who had a unanimous selection for the AL Cy Young (and also won the AL MVP) in 2011, could have easily picked up a couple of more wins, in 2012 and 2016. Not to mention that he is a strong candidate to win the 2019 AL Cy Young as well.
The other alternate history change would have awarded the 2014 Cy Young to Felix Hernandez rather than Corey Kluber. As it turns out, that was a very close vote – Kluber had the Wins and strikeout edge, but Hernandez led the league with a 2.14 ERA. It could have gone either way.
Wrapping it Up
Here are a couple of summary tables to wrap it up…..
This first one shows, by decade, how many times a different winner was implied (the 1970’s and the 1980’s being the most volatile). In total, 41% of the awards would have gone to a different pitcher in our alternate universe:
|
Decade
|
Awards Given
|
Different Winner
|
% of Different Winners
|
|
1950s
|
4
|
4
|
100%
|
|
1960s
|
14
|
5
|
36%
|
|
1970s
|
20
|
11
|
55%
|
|
1980s
|
20
|
12
|
60%
|
|
1990s
|
20
|
6
|
30%
|
|
2000s
|
20
|
7
|
35%
|
|
2010s
|
18
|
3
|
17%
|
|
Grand Total
|
116
|
48
|
41%
|
Here’s another interesting (but a bit long) table – this shows which pitchers would benefit most from the alternate history, sorted by the net gain/loss, and headed by Nolan Ryan and Dave Stieb, who each would have improved from 0 wins to 3 wins. Jim Palmer, on the other hand, would have lost 2 of his 3 awards.
26 pitchers who were single-time winners in their careers would now have lost them. 19 pitchers who were shut out during their actual careers would win at least one, including Stieb and Ryan with 3 each, and Niekro, Brown, Bunning and Richard with 2 each.
|
Pitcher
|
Cy Young Awards in Alternate History
|
Cy Young Awards in Actual History
|
Net Gain/Loss
|
|
Nolan Ryan
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
|
Dave Stieb
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
|
Pedro Martinez
|
5
|
3
|
2
|
|
Orel Hershiser
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
|
Justin Verlander
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
|
Phil Niekro
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
|
Kevin Brown
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
|
Jim Bunning
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
|
J.R. Richard
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
|
Roger Clemens
|
8
|
7
|
1
|
|
Randy Johnson
|
6
|
5
|
1
|
|
Tom Seaver
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
Johan Santana
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
Whitey Ford
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Don Drysdale
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Dwight Gooden
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Felix Hernandez
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Frank Viola
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Jack Morris
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Kevin Appier
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Herb Score
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Mario Soto
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Mark Prior
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Mike Mussina
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Mike Norris
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Sam Jones
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Sam McDowell
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Steve McCatty
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Steve Rogers
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Gary Peters
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Frank Tanana
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Steve Carlton
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
|
Greg Maddux
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
|
Sandy Koufax
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
Clayton Kershaw
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
Max Scherzer
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
Tim Lincecum
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
Bob Gibson
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
Zack Greinke
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Jacob deGrom
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Jake Arrieta
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Jake Peavy
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Dean Chance
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
David Cone
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Mike Cuellar
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Mike Flanagan
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Mike Scott
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Dallas Keuchel
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Pat Hentgen
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
C.C. Sabathia
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
R.A. Dickey
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Blake Snell
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Ron Guidry
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Cliff Lee
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Brandon Webb
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Vida Blue
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Denny McLain
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Corey Kluber
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Gaylord Perry
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Roy Halladay
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Bret Saberhagen
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Tom Glavine
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
Chris Carpenter
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Dennis Eckersley
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Don Newcombe
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Doug Drabek
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Early Wynn
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Eric Gagne
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Fergie Jenkins
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Fernando Valenzuela
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Bob Turley
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Jack McDowell
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Jim Lonborg
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Jim Perry
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
David Price
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
John Denny
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
John Smoltz
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
La Marr Hoyt
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Mark Davis
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Bruce Sutter
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Mike Marshall
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Mike McCormick
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Pete Vuckovich
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Bartolo Colon
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Randy Jones
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Rick Porcello
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Rick Sutcliffe
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Barry Zito
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Rollie Fingers
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Sparky Lyle
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Steve Bedrosian
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Steve Stone
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Catfish Hunter
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Vern Law
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Warren Spahn
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Willie Hernandez
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Bob Welch
|
0
|
1
|
-1
|
|
Jim Palmer
|
1
|
3
|
-2
|
Thanks for reading,
Dan