Three baseball teams improved on their W-L record by at least twenty games last year.
Sweating in the high desert, the Diamondbacks went from 52 wins in 2021 to 74 wins in 2022. The Baltimore Orioles, starting at the same floor as Arizona, improved by a whopping 31 games, crossing the .500 line in a competitive AL East. Finally, the Metropolitans of Queens went from 77 wins to 101 wins.
|
Team
|
2021
|
2022
|
Difference
|
|
Orioles
|
52-110
|
83-79
|
+31
|
|
Mets
|
77-85
|
101-61
|
+24
|
|
D'Backs
|
52-110
|
74-88
|
+22
|
These are different teams, of course.
The Mets, with a 2022 payroll of about $260 million dollars, were improved significantly by benefiting from the deep pockets of their owner, who shelled out lots of dollars to add depth to a strong team. They’ve continued to spend this off-season, replacing Jacob deGrom with Justin Veralnder, added starter Kodai Senga from Japan, and extended Edwin Diaz and Brandon Nimmo to big contracts. They’re expected to contend in the very formidable NL East division: the recently released playoff projections at FanGraphs projects them to win 91.6 games, with an 84% chance of reaching the playoffs.
The Diamondbacks ($86 million in payroll, 25th in baseball) and Orioles ($43 million, last) aren’t comparable on salary, and they’re not comparable in pedigree: both squads were last-place teams whose stride forward in 2022 brought them only to 'decent' status, not World Series contender. And their improvements came about on the efforts of younger talents – notably Adley Rutschman and Zac Gallen – making their first marks on the game. Optimism for the 2023 season rests on strong farm systems loaded with more talent waiting to rise.
The projections reflect as much: Arizona is expected to finish 4th in the NL West, winning 77.5 games. Baltimore – lacking a franchise like the Rockies to sneer at – is expected to finish last in the AL East, with 75.7 wins. Each team has about a 10% chance of seeing extra baseball this year.
The projections match a broader intuitive logic about teams that improve substantially from one year to the next, which is that they are more-than-likely to return to earth. Regression is a powerful drug: Baltimore and Arizona made a leap forward from ‘very bad’ to ‘passably decent’ last season, but it’s tough to make the next leap – to legitimate contender status – one year later.
Is that right? Is such intuition still valid, or has the game changed enough to demand new models for how teams change?
* * *
One way to consider the future of the Orioles and Diamondbacks is to look at other teams that have made big leaps forward in recent years.
Unfortunately, the shortened COVID season of 2020 limits the scope of our analysis. The 2019 Marlins won 57 games; the 2020 team, a surprise playoff team, won games at an 84-win pace, an improvement of 27 wins. If you pro-rate the 2020 season to a full 162-game schedule, the Padres (+30) and White Sox (+24) also made comparably big leaps forward.
Should we consider them?
My instinct is to say no. The Marlins actually won 31 games in 2020, not 84. While it is possible that their performance in 2020 was indicative of a franchise taking a stride forward, to get to 84 victories, we're giving them more on credit (53 wins) than on actual work (31 wins).
So we have to go further back.
So let's consider the last five teams to actually improve by 20 or more games. How did they do after their improvement seasons? Did they stride forward, or shrink back? Was the sudden improvement a signifier of a new contender, or just a flash of luck?
Let’s take a look.
1. Oakland A’s, 2017-2018
Billy Beane’s last rabbit-out-of-a-hat:
|
Year
|
2017
|
2018
|
Change
|
|
W-L
|
75-87
|
97-65
|
+22
|
The A’s, on the backs of a Matt Chapman breakout season, emerged from a three-year doldrum to sneak a Wild Card win. Did they remain strong, or did they fall back?
The A’s remained a very strong team:
|
Year
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
|
W-L
|
75-87
|
97-65
|
97-65
|
36-24
|
86-76
|
Oakland returned to the playoffs in 2019 and 2020. Astonishingly, their winning percentage repeated like Khris Davis’s batting average: .599, .599, and .600. They declined a bit in 2021, and were a losing team last year.
The A’s aren’t a perfect parallel to Arizona or Baltimore: they went from 76 wins to 97 wins, which is a better parallel to last year’s Mets than it is for Baltimore or Arizona. Still, the A’s should give us some optimism: they made a big step forward, and they avoided the strong pull back to the center.
2. Minnesota Twins, 2016-2017
This is a slightly confusing one, as this Twins team actually made two leaps forward of 20+ games. Starting with the earlier leap:
|
Year
|
2016
|
2017
|
Change
|
|
W-L
|
59-103
|
85-77
|
+26
|
The tail-end of the Mauer-Era Twins saw a nice little spike to a Wild Card berth in 2017, before losing in the pl
Did this team make another stride towards competition, or did they flounder?
|
Year
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
|
W-L
|
59-103
|
85-77
|
78-84
|
101-61
|
36-24
|
They floundered for a year, and then they did a second jump, improving by 23+ wins. They won the AL Central Division by a comfortable margin. And then – predictably – they got swept in the Division Series. By the Yankees.
The Twins repeated as the best team in the Central over the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, and then repeated their habit of getting swept in the postseason, this time losing a Wild Card Series to Houston.
The Twins record in 2016 and 2017 looks a lot like the record for Baltimore and Arizona. It counts as another positive: Minnesota didn’t make the leap into contention immediately, but they did make that second leap. Consecutive division titles would be a terrific success for our aspiring squads.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks, 2016-2017
Out in the desert, an earlier iteration of the Diamondbacks was making a parallel stride forward in 2017:
|
Year
|
2016
|
2017
|
Change
|
|
W-L
|
69-93
|
93-69
|
+24
|
The D’Backs, led by Paul Goldschmidt, made a surprise charge at a Wild Card slot in 2017. They notched a victory over the Rockies in the Wild Card game before getting swept by the Dodgers in the Division Series.
(Honestly, I had to check the records on that: I have no memory that the Rockies and Diamondbacks were the NL Wild Card teams in 2017. That feels so far from today that my mind boggles.)
So: did the D’Backs turn into a contender? I think you know the answer.
|
Year
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
|
W-L
|
69-93
|
93-69
|
82-80
|
85-77
|
25-35
|
Arizona remained a solid baseball team, but 2017 turned out to be their peak: they just treaded water after that, and then dropped off during COVID. This was a strong team: in addition to Goldy, the 2017 squad had J.D. Martinez, Zack Greinke, pre-tight-pants Robbie Ray, A.J. Pollock, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Archie Bradley as a lights-out set-up man. It was a solid team, but solid wasn’t enough.
4. Chicago Cubs, 2014-2015
You might remember this team:
|
Year
|
2014
|
2015
|
Change
|
|
W-L
|
73-89
|
97-65
|
+24
|
The Chicago Cubs, with a core of prospects Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell, and the arms of Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, jumped from 73 wins in 2014 to a Wild Card slot in 2015. Did they keep winning?
Of course.
|
Year
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
|
W-L
|
73-89
|
97-65
|
103-58
|
92-70
|
95-68
|
The Cubbies won the World Series in 2016, and then notched two more playoff appearances in subsequent years.
This is the dream scenario: you take a step, and suddenly you’re a dynasty. I don’t know what qualifies as ‘dynasty’ these days, but the Cubs were a terrific team, and they stayed terrific for a little while.
5. Texas Rangers, 2014-2015
The Rangers are the last team to qualify, but they probably don’t belong in our discussion. I’ll tell you why, but the record, first:
|
Year
|
2014
|
2015
|
Change
|
|
W-L
|
67-95
|
88-74
|
+23
|
The 2014 Rangers had a lousy record in 2014, but they weren’t a lousy team; they were a strong team that had a one-year slump. The team – the Adrian Beltre Era Rangers - had won 90+ games each of the four previous seasons, reaching (and losing) a couple World Series along the way. The 2014 squad might’ve been the swan song of a dying empire, but it wasn’t: they came in first in the AL West in 2015, and then repeated in 2016.
|
Year
|
2014
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
|
W-L
|
67-95
|
88-74
|
95-67
|
88-71
|
67-95
|
So the 2014 season was a mirage year: the real decline for the franchise started in 2018, and continues to now. They’re trying to buy their way out of it, and I’m a skeptic on their chances.
* * *
The projections on the Diamondbacks and Orioles suggest that they will struggle to finish above .500 this year.
I think that’s certainly a possibility: the Orioles play in a very difficult division, and the Diamondbacks are going to have some steep competition from the three California squads in the NL West.
But I’m bull-ish of the future of both teams.
The recent history of teams that have improved by 20+ wins suggest that such improvements are a decently strong indicator that a team is coming into a window of contention. Four of these recent teams were enough like Baltimore and Arizona to be comparable to them; four of the five teams listed were organizations that showing a spark of talent after years in the doldrums. Three of those four teams eventually turned up as reliable contenders in their divisions.
That’s no guarantee, but I count it as at least a strong positive. I think there’s a very good chance that Baltimore and Arizona are going to stride into being two of the stronger teams in baseball by 2024, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that at least one of them will jump the queue in 2023.
As to whether or not some of the fundamentals about how teams go from losing to winning: I’m less certain. It is possible that a team like Baltimore will do everything right and still lose, just because they can’t compete with the deeper pockets of other teams in their division. That is: Baltimore could turn out exactly like the Cubs of ten years ago, and wind up with nothing to show for it.
But that’s a pessimistic note, and we’re in the season of optimism. I’ll be rooting for both teams this year.
David Fleming is a writer living in western Virginia. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.