Mike Trout is currently hitting .338 .344 .345. Barring a long slump, it is likely that he will end the season having posted one of the ten best batting averages for a twenty-year old hitter in baseball history.
Here’s the current list:
|
Rank
|
Name
|
Age 20 BA
|
Year
|
|
1
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
.358
|
1996
|
|
2
|
Ty Cobb
|
.350
|
1907
|
|
3
|
Al Kaline
|
.340
|
1955
|
|
4
|
Mel Ott
|
.328
|
1929
|
|
5
|
Jimmie Foxx
|
.328
|
1928
|
|
6
|
Ted Williams
|
.327
|
1939
|
|
7
|
John McGraw
|
.321
|
1893
|
|
8
|
Stuffy McInnis
|
.321
|
1911
|
|
9
|
Cecil Travis
|
.319
|
1934
|
|
10
|
Arky Vaughan
|
.318
|
1932
|
It’s an impressive group: seven Hall-of-Fame players, plus John McGraw (a Hall-of-Fame manager and an excellent hitter), Stuffy McInnis, and Cecil Travis.
Seeing this list got me thinking about the possibility of Mike Trout hitting .400. I don’t think he’ll hit .400 this year…but is there a chance he can hit .400 someday?
Going a bit further into the list above, we can lump the ten players whose company Trout will join into four camps:
-Those who never did any better in the batting average department.
-Those who posted better batting averages, but didn’t come close to hitting .400.
-Those who did come close to .400, and,
-Those who hit actually .400.
In the first camp we have A-Rod, Al Kaline, and Stuffy McInnis. Neither A-Rod nor Kaline ever improved on their Age-20 batting averages, though both players had better seasons later on. Stuffy McInnis did improve on his batting average, but only slightly…from .321 to .327 to .324 in consecutive years. I’ve lumped him with Kaline and A-Rod because he didn’t have a drastic improvement.
Double-X, Double-T, and Cecil Travis did post better batting averages later on:
|
Name
|
Age 20 BA
|
Year
|
Best BA
|
Year
|
|
Mel Ott
|
.328
|
1929
|
.349
|
1930
|
|
Jimmie Foxx
|
.328
|
1928
|
.364
|
1932
|
|
Cecil Travis
|
.319
|
1934
|
.359
|
1941
|
Foxx and Travis won batting titles, but none of the three came particularly close to crossing the .400 line.
On the other hands, Arky Vaughan and John McGraw both came very close to hitting .400:
|
Name
|
Age 20 BA
|
Year
|
Best BA
|
Year
|
|
John McGraw
|
.321
|
1893
|
.391
|
1899
|
|
Arky Vaughan
|
.318
|
1932
|
.385
|
1935
|
Had McGraw collected four more hits, he would’ve been at .401 (160/399). Vaughan was eight hits shy (192/599). Oddly, both men were one at-bat short of a century mark in at-bats. Also: John McGraw has the third-best on-base percentage in baseball history.
Finally, Ty Cobb and Ted Williams each hit .400, once for Williams, thrice for Cobb:
|
Name
|
Age 20 BA
|
Year
|
Best BA
|
Year
|
|
Ty Cobb
|
.350
|
1907
|
.420
|
1911
|
|
Ted Williams
|
.327
|
1939
|
.406
|
1941
|
These seasons are widely regarded as fluky outliers. Neither player is of any particular historical significance.
Ten players is a small sample size to draw definitive conclusions from, but Trout is keeping good company. Six of the ten players listed won batting titles. Four of the ten came within striking distance of hitting .400. Two hit .400. It’s impressive company.
* * *
I’ll throw in the requisite comment that batting average is an overrated statistic.
I’ll also throw in my entirely subjective belief that, WAR-be-damned, a player hitting .400 is the most significant single-season achievement that a player can accomplish. With the single-season homerun record a bit tarnished by the steroid era, hitting .400 is the default standard-bearer of awe-inspiring batting feats.
* * *
One of the reasons that Trout is an interesting candidate to be the first .400 hitter since Williams is Trout’s tremendous speed. This shows up in his stolen base totals, and his batting average on balls in play:
|
Year
|
Level
|
Games
|
SB
|
BABIP
|
|
2009
|
R
|
39
|
13
|
.423
|
|
2009
|
A
|
5
|
0
|
.444
|
|
2010
|
A
|
81
|
45
|
.420
|
|
2010
|
A+
|
50
|
11
|
.346
|
|
2011
|
R
|
25
|
3
|
.347
|
|
2011
|
AA
|
91
|
33
|
.390
|
|
2011
|
Majors
|
40
|
4
|
.247
|
|
2012
|
AAA
|
20
|
6
|
.476
|
|
2012
|
Majors
|
51
|
21
|
.394
|
BABIP is the percentage of balls put in play that wind up being hits…the average BABIP is right around .300, but it tends to fluctuate based on luck. Except for his 2011 call-up to the majors, Trout has posted reliably high BABIP’s (he has also averaged 55 steals per 162 professional games). This is almost certainly due to Trout’s incredible speed on the bases. It is reasonable to expect that Trout’s edge in getting to first really fast will help him maintain higher-than-average BABIP.
As it’s been seventy-one years since Ted Williams went 6-for-9 in the final double-header of 1941, I wanted to compare Trout to some more modern players. So let’s have a look at the BABIP’s of the best recent challengers to .400:
|
Name
|
Year
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
|
Gwynn
|
1994
|
.394
|
.389
|
|
Brett
|
1980
|
.390
|
.368
|
|
Carew
|
1977
|
.388
|
.408
|
|
Walker
|
1999
|
.379
|
.363
|
|
Nomar
|
2000
|
.372
|
.378
|
|
Helton
|
2000
|
.372
|
.357
|
|
Ichiro
|
2004
|
.372
|
.399
|
|
Gwynn
|
1997
|
.372
|
.363
|
Trout is currently posting a .394 BABIP, which is right in line with the other challengers. Trout is a bit behind Carew and Ichiro (two very fast players), but ahead of the rest.
Two other factors to consider are a player’s walk and strikeout rates. A high walk rate, within the context of hitting .400, means that a player is selective about what he’s swinging at:
|
Name
|
Year
|
BA
|
BB%
|
|
Gwynn
|
1994
|
.394
|
10.1
|
|
Brett
|
1980
|
.390
|
11.3
|
|
Carew
|
1977
|
.388
|
9.9
|
|
Walker
|
1999
|
.379
|
11.1
|
|
Nomar
|
2000
|
.372
|
10.2
|
|
Helton
|
2000
|
.372
|
14.8
|
|
Ichiro
|
2004
|
.372
|
6.4
|
|
Gwynn
|
1997
|
.372
|
6.6
|
Mike Trout has walked in 9.0% of his plate appearances this year, which puts him within the range of the challengers.
Interestingly, the recent challengers to .400 are split on walk rates. Ichiro and (one version of) Tony Gwynn have fairly low walk rates (6.4 and 6.6%), while Todd Helton (14.8%) represents the other side of the spectrum. The rest of the challengers are right around 10-11%.
Onto strikeout rates…one would expect players making runs at .400 would need low strikeout rates, as a strikeout means that the ball is not put into play. This is certainly demonstrated by our crop of challengers:
|
Name
|
Year
|
BA
|
K%
|
|
Gwynn
|
1994
|
.394
|
4.0
|
|
Brett
|
1980
|
.390
|
4.3
|
|
Carew
|
1977
|
.388
|
7.9
|
|
Walker
|
1999
|
.379
|
10.1
|
|
Nomar
|
2000
|
.372
|
8.3
|
|
Helton
|
2000
|
.372
|
8.8
|
|
Ichiro
|
2004
|
.372
|
8.3
|
|
Gwynn
|
1997
|
.372
|
4.3
|
And this is where Trout gets into trouble…Trout’s strikeout rate is currently sitting at 18.5%, which is double the rates of all the challengers except Helton. It is highly unlikely that Mike Trout could hit .400 while striking out 18% of the time...he would need a BABIP close to .500 to pull it off. Even a strikeout rate of 15% would require a BABIP of about .470 for Trout to hit .400.
Using some quick and dirty math, I’d say that Trout would need to just about halve his strikeout rate to make a serious run at a .400 batting average.
Since I have the spreadsheet, I’ll throw Trout onto the list:
|
Name
|
Year
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
BB%
|
K%
|
AGE
|
|
Gwynn
|
1994
|
.394
|
.389
|
10.1
|
4.0
|
34
|
|
Brett
|
1980
|
.390
|
.368
|
11.3
|
4.3
|
27
|
|
Carew
|
1977
|
.388
|
.408
|
9.9
|
7.9
|
31
|
|
Walker
|
1999
|
.379
|
.363
|
11.1
|
10.1
|
32
|
|
Nomar
|
2000
|
.372
|
.378
|
10.2
|
8.3
|
26
|
|
Helton
|
2000
|
.372
|
.357
|
14.8
|
8.8
|
26
|
|
Ichiro
|
2004
|
.372
|
.399
|
6.4
|
8.3
|
30
|
|
Gwynn
|
1997
|
.372
|
.363
|
6.6
|
4.3
|
37
|
|
Trout
|
2012
|
.335
|
.395
|
8.8
|
18.5
|
20
|
* * *
Someone asked Bill if Trout has a shot to win the AL MVP. Trout certainly has a case.
He currently leads the American league in batting average and stolen bases, and is in the top-ten in runs scored, on-base percentage, and OPS.
Checking out the advanced metrics, Trout ranks second in
bWAR (behind Brett Lawrie) and second in
fWAR (behind Robinson Cano). He’s climbing the charts on our
Total Runs leaderboard (Trout ranks sixth among AL players, right between NL MVP candidates Andrew McCutchen and Giancarlo Stanton).
Another point in Trout’s favor is that the Angels’ improvement coincided with his arrival to the major leagues. The Halos were just 8-14 when Trout was called up on April 28th. They were mired in last place, the only team under .500 in the division, and already nine games behind their expected rivals, the Texas Rangers.
Since Trout’s arrival, the Angels have gone 34-19, the best record in baseball over that stretch (the Yankees are second at 35-20). The Angels are still behind the Rangers, but they start today in good position to win one of the Wild Card spots, and could easily catch the Rangers.
MVP? He’d get my vote.
* * *
Of the eight players who havemade runs at a .400 batting average, the closest comparable to Trout is probably Nomar Garciaparra…both players are right-handed hitters with 30-HR potential. Both are athletic looking players at key defensive positions. Like Trout, Garciaparra started his career as a leadoff hitter…
But the player who gives me some hope that Trout will one day hit .400 isn’t Nomar Garciaparra. It’s Rod Carew.
Here are Carew’s rate stats, from his rookie year to his run at .400:
|
Year
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
BB%
|
K%
|
Age
|
|
1967
|
.292
|
.341
|
6.6
|
16.2
|
21
|
|
1968
|
.273
|
.312
|
5.3
|
14.4
|
22
|
|
1969
|
.332
|
.386
|
7.3
|
14.3
|
23
|
|
1970
|
.366
|
.407
|
5.4
|
13.7
|
24
|
|
1971
|
.307
|
.356
|
7.1
|
12.8
|
25
|
|
1972
|
.318
|
.369
|
7.3
|
10.2
|
26
|
|
1973
|
.350
|
.411
|
9.4
|
8.4
|
27
|
|
1974
|
.364
|
.433
|
10.7
|
7.1
|
28
|
|
1975
|
.359
|
.421
|
10.4
|
6.5
|
29
|
|
1976
|
.331
|
.395
|
9.8
|
7.6
|
30
|
|
1977
|
.388
|
.449
|
9.9
|
7.9
|
31
|
Check out the bolded column: over the course of eleven major league seasons, Carew managed to cut his strikeout rate in half. He did so while improving his walk rate, which lead to his spectacular 1977 season in Minnesota.
* * *
Sooner or later we’ll see another .400 hitter in the major leagues. I think it’ll come sooner rather than later, and I think that Mike Trout will be the guy to do it. I’ll give you an extra reason why.
Let me start by throwing a speculative question at you: what is most wrong with today’s version of the game of baseball?
I’m not asking about secondary stuff like the price of tickets or the unending string of pitching changes or the hours it takes Jonathan Papelbon to throw a baseball. I’m talking about the game itself…the moments of action.
I think most fans, if they thought about it long enough, would agree that the biggest problem with the game as it is played is the huge number of strikeouts, which is continuing to creep up steadily. I like a good strikeout as much as the next guy, but it’s getting a tad commonplace. Did you know what pitcher has the 8th best strikeout rate in baseball history? It’s Oliver Perez. He was an okay pitcher, but it’s silly that his strikeout rate ranks as the eighth-best strikeout pitcher in history.
Eric Bedard ranks 17th. Tom Gordon is 30th. Chad Billingsly is 34th.
Of the top-40 pitchers in strikeouts-per-nine innings pitched, thirty of them have pitched in the major leagues since I started writing for this site in 2008. That’s 75%. That’s crazy.
Eventually, Major League Baseball will step in and do something to reduce strikeouts.
The objective will not be to increase offense….the goal will only beto reduce strikeouts across the league. This is somewhat tricky: it won’t work to return baseball to the ballooning homerun derby of last decade. It will not be enough to just take something away from pitchers (like lowering the pitching mound). There has to be a parallel effect on hitters, something along the line of increasing bat diameters and weights. Or altering the strike zone. Or enforcing the batter’s box.
I don’t know what the solution will be….but I think that major league baseball will decide that there are too many strikeouts, and they’ll figure out a way to increase contact while maintaining a reasonable balance between offense and defense.
A rule change that reduces the overall strikeout would help batting averages. And it would give Mike Trout a shot at hitting .400.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com. He promises no more Mike Trout articles until at least September.