There are rumors floating around that Roger Clemens will start a game for the Houston Astros sometime this year. There are at least a few reasons why Clemens, fifty years old, would want to come out of retirement:
-He sets his Hall-of-Fame clock back five years, thus avoiding the controversial 2012 ballot.
-On the off chance he wins, he will tie his rival, Greg Maddux, in career victories.
-If he wins, he will break Jamie Moyer’s record as the oldest pitcher to win a baseball game.
-Quite simply: he can. A major league team is willing to let him do this.
There are a few reasons why the Astros would consider this bizarre stunt:
-They’d fill up their stadium. If I were living in Houston, I’d buy a ticket. You would, too.
-They get one magical night when they can pretend they’re not the worst team in baseball.
-It gives us a defining moment for their last year in the NL.
And, there are a couple of reasons that a Clemens return is interesting for fans of baseball:
-We get to see history-in-the-making Sort of. It’s not Jamie Moyer history (old guy who works hard to earn a shot). It’s not Satchel Paige history (iconic player prevented by racism gets a shot). It’s cheap history. But it’s history.
-We’ll have an excuse to talk about the steroids thing again. Because no one is bored by that.
-We can buy a cool early 1980’s orange Astros throwback jerseys, with Clemens on the back, and,
-We get to root against someone. Hard.
Because the vast majority of us will be rooting against Clemens. I mean, unless my radar is completely askew, I assume that the majority of us will be rooting against Clemens. I’ll be rooting against Clemens partially because this seems like a cheap publicity stunt. And I’ll be rooting against him because he could take a record away from Jamie Moyer.
Mostly,I’ll be rooting against Roger because this seems like a craven attempt to stay off a crowded, controversial HOF ballot.
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In recent interviews, Clemens has been positively Zen about getting into Cooperstown: ‘I can’t control it,’ he said recently. ‘It’s not going to change my life in any way.’
Despite his new-found Buddism, it is difficult to separate Clemens’ sudden desire to pitch for the Astros from the 2013 Hall-of-Fame ballot, which will have his name listen right under Barry Bonds, and in close proximity to Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire.
With that objective in mind, I thought I’d take a moment to consider the various PR ‘strategies’ Clemens could have (and might still) employ to reach the Hall-of-Fame:
1) The hat-in-hand apology. Wherein Clemens says, ‘I screwed up. I’m a competitor and it was a weird time. Steroids were everywhere. I hope you can forgive the mistakes of my past. Also: I struck out 20 batters in a game twice. I totally justinvented that.’
Outcome: Elected to HOF, probably on the second year of eligibility. Americans love redemption stories. We’d be happy to forgive him.
Likelihood of it happening: 0%. Can you say ‘perjury’?
2) Keep quiet. Maintain a low profile. Clemens stays out of the limelight, making occasional appearances for charities. Does bland interviews. Maybe takes up a new sport, like
freestyle canoeing.
Outcome: Uncertain, but probably elected eventually. There is a chance that in seven years, when pitchers are having secret surgeries in Sweden utilizing narwhal tendons for Tommy John surgeries, that steroids will be considered with the same nostalgic gloss-over that the many amphetamine users of the 60’s and 70’s enjoy. This is the approach that Barry Bonds is taking.
Likelihood of it happening: 18%. Like fellow Texan Nolan Ryan, Clemens seems intent on staying in baseball in some capacity. He’s been active coaching for his alma mater, and makes frequent appearances around the game. He likes attention too much to stay quiet.
3) Admit nothing. Deny everything. In this scenario, Clemens stumps on the platform that he was acquitted on those perjury charges, and is absolutely clean. The Nixon strategy.
Outcome: Unelected. Sportswriters love nothing more than to chastise the unrepentant. They also love to have a story that they can run again and again, to beat back those pesky deadlines. An annual ‘Why Roger Clemens Destroyed America’s Innocence’ article would be a great help.
Likelihood of it happening: 52%. Just based on Clemens’ recent interviews, I have a sense that this is where he’s going. It’s a risky strategy, because it creates conflict; it gives the Hall-of-Fame voters something to go against. Clemens saying, ‘I’m innocent,’ lets the voters counter with ‘No, you’re not.’
4) Postpone the inevitable. Figure out a way to get on a major league team for a game, and reset the clock on when the name ‘Clemens, Roger’ appears on the ballot.
Outcome: I think this kind of gamesmanship seems cheap, and I doubt it will play well years down the road. For every voter who forgets about McNamee, there will be plenty who will remember his plan to ‘beat the ballot’, and punish him doubly for it.
Likelihood of it happening: 40%. And ticking up every day.
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Clemens seems intent on employing strategies #3 (Deny) and #4 (Delay). If he continues on this strategy, we can add a fifth PR strategy to our list:
5) Make Barry Bonds look like the sensible one.
When they retired from baseball, Barry Bonds was the player most associated with steroids. This was due to a number of factors: Bonds’ oversized head/altered physique, the greater ‘outlier-ness of his statistical accomplishments, and his general surliness towards fans, teammates, and the media. And that recliner didn’t help.
If Clemens had managed to stay quiet, I think there is a good chance that he would’ve gotten into Cooperstown ahead of Barry Bonds. That is to say, Barry would’ve been the player punished the longest for steroid paranoia.
Instead, Clemens has shifted a lot of negative attention that was initially focused on Bonds onto himself. This isn’t surprising, frankly. Barry Bonds has always seemed ready to walk away. I’m sure he loves (or loved) the game…but I never had the sense that the game defined him. When no one signed him in 2008 or 2009, I wasn’t surprised that he walked away. He has no need to do interviews, no need to hang around batting cages. It was easy for Bonds to maintain a low profile. It’s what he’s always wanted.
For whatever reasons, Clemens hasn’t been able to stay away. Since his retirement, news about him has cropped up with a good bit of frequency. Now he’s talking about coming back.
One of the reasons I think it’s a tremendous mistake for Clemens to play for the Astros is because it keeps attention on him. Illegal substances are still an issue in baseball; by playing a game for the Astros so he can duck a difficult ballot, Clemens is keeping his name in that discussion.
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One more point:
The BBWAA should announce that they will keep Clemens on the 2013 ballot.
This ain’t rocket science. If one of the reasons Clemens is trying this ‘comeback’ is to postpone the Hall’s judgment of his career, the BBWAA should say it ain’t going to work. Players shouldn’t be able to finagle their way to an easier ballot; they shouldn’t be able to ask for a reserve of judgment.
The danger of Clemens forcing himself off the ballot is that it opens up the doors for other candidates to do the same thing. If Clemens gets bumped back, what’s to stop the Giants from giving Barry Bonds one final at-bat?
There is nothing Roger Clemens can do on the Houston mound that will alter our judgment of his staggeringly brilliant career, and there is nothing he can do to mitigate anyone’s concern that his brilliant career was enhanced by banned substances. The BBWAA should keep him on the ballot.
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Lastly: an appeal to whichever team ends up playing the Astros during Roger Clemens’ comeback. Please:
-Contact Dave Stewart.
-Fly him to the game.
-Give him a really good seat. One with a direct sight line to the pitchers’ mound.
Because Roger Clemens doesn’t win baseball games when Dave Stewart is around.
David Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.