Colby Lewis has replaced Felix Hernandez among the top ten starting pitchers in baseball in our June 14 updated rankings, and Matt Cain has replaced Cole Hamels among the front five:
White-on-blue indicates pitchers who have been moving up in the last month; white-on-red indicates those who have been slipping. King Felix started the season in 9th place at 506.4, while Lewis started the season in 22nd place at 478.2. If you compare Lewis and Hernandez’ season totals, there isn’t a world of difference; Felix has 13 starts, 3.70 ERA, 88 innings, 84 strikeouts, 29 walks, 4-5 record. Lewis has 13 starts, 89 innings, 3.13 ERA, 74 strikeouts, 11 walks, 5-5 record (the won-lost record doesn’t affect where the pitcher is ranked.) But Lewis has done that in Texas, which is a tough place to pitch; Felix is pitching in Seattle, which is a more pitcher-friendly environment, and—the bigger thing—Felix pitched well early but has not pitched well lately. Hernandez has had only one good start since May 5, with a 6.37 ERA over his last seven starts. Lewis has four strong outings in his last five, with a 2.43 ERA over the five.
R. A. Dickey actually has moved up more strongly in the rankings in the past month and week than any other pitcher—perhaps saving the knuckle ball for another fifty years, who knows? He has pitched three straight brilliant games. The scores gradually creep up over the course of the season, not enough that you can notice it week to week or start to start. At the start of the season there were eleven pitchers over 500, and thirty-eight pitchers over 450. On May 14 (a month ago today) there were thirteen over 500, and forty-four over 450. Now there are twenty-one pitchers over 500, and fifty-one over 450:
Tim Lincecum has dropped to 30th; one more spot and he can no longer be considered a number one starter. At the start of the season Brandon Beachy was 92nd in the rankings, and Ervin Santana was 29th. Now Beachy ranks ahead of Santana. At the start of the season there were seventy-five pitchers over 400. A month ago today there were eight-five. Now there are ninety-five:
As I mentioned last week, I call the area between 300 and 400 The Desert. Most young pitchers will die in the desert; they’ll never make it to 400. In the past week Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale have gotten out of the desert; also Vance Worley, Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Paul Maholm and Jonathan Sanchez, but Worley, Johnson, Hughes, Maholm and Sanchez have been across that line before and have fallen back. Strasburg and Sale could be considered the first pitchers of 2012 to successfully cross the desert.
Between 350 and 400 there were 49 pitchers at the start of the season, 46 on May 14, and there are 55 today:
A month ago the Boston media was discussing how many more starts the Red Sox could give Clay Buchholz before they had to do something. In the last month and the last week, Buchholz has moved up faster than any major league pitcher except R. A. Dickey.
There are 14 pitchers left in the rankings who have not made a start this season. Chris Carpenter is still ranked 40th despite not having pitched this season, Javier Vazquez 79th, Roy Oswalt 83rd. Brett Myers is 108th despite not having made a start this season (he is pitching relief for the Astros), John Lannan is 138th, Michael Pineda is 156th, John Lackey 158th, Scott Baker 159th, Wade Davis 164th, Fausto Carmona (or whoever he really is) is 167th, Livan Hernandez is 174th, Brett Cecil 175th, Joel Pineiro 195th, and Wakefield 208th. Davis is interesting, in that he lost his starting job despite having a winning record and a decent ERA both years he was in the rotation. That’s kind of rare, I think.
I thought that Tim Wakefield would drop off the list this week, but I guess I miscalculated that; he will disappear from the rankings tomorrow, actually. Today is Tim Wakefield’s last day as a ranked starter.
There are twelve pitchers who are not in the rankings although they have made a start this year. Thanks for reading.
Bill James