In "Hey, Bill" we wandered into a discussion about Comeback Players of the Year. . .don’t ask me how. Anyway, desiring to take these petty and meaningless issues seriously, because what other excuse do I have for taking up space, I made up a formula to decide who should be the Comeback Player and Comeback Pitcher of the Year.
No, I love this stuff; this is what I live to do. Comeback equals Decline Times Recovery. My formula is based on Season Scores. Let’s take, f’rinstance, Bret Saberhagen in 1998. Saberhagen, as many of you will remember, had once been a great pitcher, winning Cy Young Awards in 1985 and 1989 and also being a serious Cy Young candidate in two other seasons. In 1997 he appeared to be finished, winning no games that year (0-1)—and also none in 1996 and only two in 1995. In 1998, with the Red Sox, Saberhagen made 31 starts and went 15-8 with a 3.98 ERA, which was a pretty good ERA in Fenway Park in the middle of all that steroid stuff.
Saberhagen’s season score in 1998 was 152, which is nothing compared to his best season, 1989, when his season score was 369. However, since his season score in 1997 was minus eleven, 152 was an improvement of 163 points. Since his best season was 369, his 1997 season was 380 points off his career peak. We multiply the 380 (decline) times the 163 (recovery), that would be 61,940. If you save a few more decimals somewhere, it works out to 61,737.
61,737 is a big score in the comeback world, and—you probably guessed—it makes Bret Saberhagen the Comeback Pitcher of the Year for 1998. But coincidentally, somebody volunteered that he didn’t know who had the biggest comeback in baseball history, but he was pretty sure that Rico Carty had the most comebacks. Well. . ..Saberhagen is on that list. Saberhagen would finish third in the Comeback-Pitcher-of-the-Year competition in 1987, second in 1989, fourth in 1991, second in 1994, and first in 1998. That’s five comebacks. I gave each pitcher two points for finishing 5th in the Comeback Pitcher competition, three points for 4th, four points for 3rd, five points for 2nd, and six points for finishing 1st. In terms of career comebacks, Saberhagen ties with Pete Alexander for the position as the Career Comeback King.
I’ll give you the comeback pitcher of the year for every year since Cincinnatus, but first let’s look at the 2011 competition. The top five comeback pitcher candidates in 2011 were, alphabetically, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, Kyle Lohse, Jason Marquis, and J. J. Putzy. These were their season scores in 2011:
|
|
|
|
2011 Season Score
|
|
|
|
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
|
J.J.
|
Putz
|
Diamondbacks
|
206
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
Red Sox
|
201
|
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
Cardinals
|
168
|
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
Padres
|
158
|
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
Diamondbacks
|
65
|
Putz, with 45 saves and a 2.15 ERA, had the best season in the group, by a narrow margin, but that doesn’t mean that he had the biggest comeback. We have to look also at how much better he was than the previous season. This chart gives the 2010 Season Scores for these pitchers:
|
|
|
|
2011 Season Score
|
2010 Season Score
|
|
|
|
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
|
J.J.
|
Putz
|
Diamondbacks
|
206
|
79
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
Red Sox
|
201
|
16
|
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
Cardinals
|
168
|
-33
|
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
Padres
|
158
|
22
|
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
Diamondbacks
|
65
|
-45
|
Putz improved by 127 points over his 2010 season, when he pitched well but had only three Saves, but Kyle Lohse improved by 201 points over a 2010 season in which he pitched well but very, very rarely; he was 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA. Lohse had the biggest improvement over his 2010 campaign:
|
|
|
|
2011 Season Score
|
2010 Season Score
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Improvement
|
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
Cardinals
|
168
|
-33
|
201
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
Red Sox
|
201
|
16
|
185
|
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
Padres
|
158
|
22
|
136
|
|
J.J.
|
Putz
|
Diamondbacks
|
206
|
79
|
127
|
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
Diamondbacks
|
65
|
-45
|
110
|
Lohse had the biggest improvement, but that still is not what we’re trying to get to. The pitcher who had the biggest improvement in 2011 may well have been Ian Kennedy, but that doesn’t make him the Comeback Pitcher of the Year, because he’s never been good before. There’s a third critical element: that the pitcher has had previous success. This chart adds the pitcher’s previous career high:
|
|
|
|
2011 Season Score
|
2010 Season Score
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Previous
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Improvement
|
Best
|
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
Cardinals
|
168
|
-33
|
201
|
179
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
Red Sox
|
201
|
16
|
185
|
250
|
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
Padres
|
158
|
22
|
136
|
216
|
|
J.J.
|
Putz
|
Diamondbacks
|
206
|
79
|
127
|
277
|
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
Diamondbacks
|
65
|
-45
|
110
|
173
|
Putz saved 40 games with a 1.38 ERA in 2007, so his previous best season is also the highest in the group. But now we’re ready to figure the Comeback Scores for each pitcher. For Marquis, that’s 173 minus a negative 45 (218) times 110, which makes 23,980. This ranks fifth in the group:
|
|
|
|
2011 Season Score
|
2010 Season Score
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Previous
|
COMEBACK
|
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Improvement
|
Best
|
SCORE
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
Red Sox
|
201
|
16
|
185
|
250
|
43290
|
|
Kyle
|
Lohse
|
Cardinals
|
168
|
-33
|
201
|
179
|
42612
|
|
Aaron
|
Harang
|
Padres
|
158
|
22
|
136
|
216
|
26384
|
|
J.J.
|
Putz
|
Diamondbacks
|
206
|
79
|
127
|
277
|
25146
|
|
Jason
|
Marquis
|
Diamondbacks
|
65
|
-45
|
110
|
173
|
23980
|
So the Comeback Pitcher of the Year, by our system, is Josh Beckett, although it’s a close race between Beckett and Lohse. Beckett was the Comeback Pitcher of the Year, but actually it’s not a huge comeback; this score—which technically was 43,138—was a relatively low score for a season’s best.
Of course, there are 40 other things that could be a part of this discussion that we didn’t measure. You could argue that we should have included World Series performance in evaluating 2011, or we should have considered how long the pitcher had been "gone" before he came back, or that we should have considered how old he was, or that we should have considered how good he was before on a multi-year basis, rather than just his single best season. There are many other things that we could have considered, but I could spend a month working on that and you wouldn’t like the results then any better than you do now, so let’s skip that and get to the lists.
Three lists. First, the Comeback Pitchers of the Year since the year 2000, and their records and comeback scores:
|
First
|
Last
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
BB
|
SV
|
ERA
|
Comeback Score
|
|
Darryl
|
Kile
|
2000
|
31
|
34
|
20
|
9
|
192
|
58
|
0
|
3.91
|
93163
|
|
David
|
Cone
|
2001
|
38
|
25
|
9
|
7
|
115
|
57
|
0
|
4.31
|
65397
|
|
Kevin
|
Millwood
|
2002
|
27
|
35
|
18
|
8
|
178
|
65
|
0
|
3.24
|
37431
|
|
Mike
|
Hampton
|
2003
|
30
|
31
|
14
|
8
|
110
|
78
|
0
|
3.84
|
70763
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
2004
|
40
|
35
|
16
|
14
|
290
|
44
|
0
|
2.60
|
64328
|
|
Andy
|
Pettitte
|
2005
|
33
|
33
|
17
|
9
|
171
|
41
|
0
|
2.39
|
39067
|
|
Curt
|
Schilling
|
2006
|
39
|
31
|
15
|
7
|
183
|
28
|
0
|
3.97
|
41588
|
|
Oliver
|
Perez
|
2007
|
26
|
29
|
15
|
10
|
174
|
79
|
0
|
3.56
|
52026
|
|
Cliff
|
Lee
|
2008
|
29
|
31
|
22
|
3
|
170
|
34
|
0
|
2.54
|
77664
|
|
Chris
|
Carpenter
|
2009
|
34
|
28
|
17
|
4
|
144
|
38
|
0
|
2.24
|
82121
|
|
Billy
|
Wagner
|
2010
|
38
|
71
|
7
|
2
|
104
|
22
|
37
|
1.43
|
56802
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
2011
|
31
|
30
|
13
|
7
|
175
|
52
|
0
|
2.89
|
43138
|
Since 2000 the biggest comeback was by Darryl Kile in 2000, although, if he comes back now, that will be an even bigger story. Sorry. Kile was very good in 1997, finishing 19-7 for Houston, then signed with Colorado as a free agent and got his rockies beaten in for two years, leading the league in losses in 1998 and posting a 6.61 ERA in 1999. In 2000 he was traded to the Cardinals, and won twenty games for St. Louis.
Kile had the highest-scoring comeback since Luis Tiant in 1972—a very famous comeback season. These are the highest-scoring comebacks of each decade since 1880:
|
First
|
Last
|
Year
|
Age
|
G
|
W
|
L
|
SO
|
BB
|
ERA
|
Score
|
Comeback Score
|
|
Will
|
White
|
1882
|
27
|
54
|
40
|
12
|
122
|
71
|
1.54
|
628
|
343357
|
|
Charlie
|
Buffinton
|
1891
|
30
|
48
|
29
|
9
|
158
|
120
|
2.55
|
394
|
189282
|
|
Vic
|
Willis
|
1901
|
25
|
38
|
20
|
17
|
133
|
78
|
2.36
|
275
|
97884
|
|
Grover Cleveland
|
Alexander
|
1919
|
32
|
30
|
16
|
11
|
121
|
38
|
1.72
|
289
|
137143
|
|
Carl
|
Mays
|
1924
|
32
|
37
|
20
|
9
|
63
|
36
|
3.15
|
228
|
74119
|
|
Lefty
|
Grove
|
1935
|
35
|
35
|
20
|
12
|
121
|
65
|
2.70
|
267
|
126993
|
|
Bob
|
Feller
|
1946
|
27
|
48
|
26
|
15
|
348
|
153
|
2.18
|
444
|
117721
|
|
Virgil
|
Trucks
|
1953
|
36
|
40
|
20
|
10
|
149
|
99
|
2.93
|
272
|
67607
|
|
Robin
|
Roberts
|
1962
|
35
|
27
|
10
|
9
|
102
|
41
|
2.78
|
162
|
102043
|
|
Luis
|
Tiant
|
1972
|
31
|
43
|
15
|
6
|
123
|
65
|
1.91
|
249
|
102210
|
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
1989
|
38
|
33
|
17
|
5
|
131
|
44
|
2.73
|
278
|
77397
|
|
Juan
|
Guzman
|
1996
|
29
|
27
|
11
|
8
|
165
|
53
|
2.93
|
170
|
68900
|
|
Darryl
|
Kile
|
2000
|
31
|
34
|
20
|
9
|
192
|
58
|
3.91
|
215
|
93163
|
That’s the second list I promised you. Vic Willis actually had the two highest comeback scores of the 1900-1909 decade, in 1901 and 1906, and Carl Mays had the two highest of the 1920s, in 1924 and 1926. (So we learn something useful from doing this: That a pitcher who has a big comeback once is a good candidate to do so again.)
And here is a complete list of the Comeback Pitchers of the Year since 1878, the first year it was possible to have a comeback score:
|
First
|
Last
|
Team
|
Lg
|
Year
|
|
Jack
|
Manning
|
Boston Braves
|
NL
|
1878
|
|
Bobby
|
Mathews
|
Grays
|
NL
|
1879
|
|
George
|
Bradley
|
Grays
|
NL
|
1880
|
|
Pud
|
Galvin
|
Bisons
|
NL
|
1881
|
|
Will
|
White
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
AA
|
1882
|
|
George
|
Bradley
|
Athletics
|
AA
|
1883
|
|
Tommy
|
Bond
|
RedsAA-Hoosiers
|
AA
|
1884
|
|
Stump
|
Wiedman
|
Wolverines
|
NL
|
1885
|
|
Pud
|
Galvin
|
Alleghenys
|
AA
|
1886
|
|
Jim
|
Whitney
|
Statesmen
|
NL
|
1887
|
|
Ed
|
Morris
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1888
|
|
Old Hoss
|
Radbourn
|
Boston Braves
|
NL
|
1889
|
|
Toad
|
Ramsey
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
AA
|
1890
|
|
Charlie
|
Buffinton
|
Red Stockings
|
AA
|
1891
|
|
Tim
|
Keefe
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1892
|
|
Hank
|
Gastright
|
Pirates-Braves
|
NL
|
1893
|
|
Duke
|
Esper
|
Senators-Orioles
|
NL
|
1894
|
|
Adonis
|
Terry
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1895
|
|
Red
|
Ehret
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1896
|
|
Amos
|
Rusie
|
New York Giants
|
NL
|
1897
|
|
Cy
|
Young
|
Spiders
|
NL
|
1898
|
|
Chick
|
Fraser
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1899
|
|
Jim
|
Hughey
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
1900
|
|
Vic
|
Willis
|
Boston Braves
|
NL
|
1901
|
|
Wiley
|
Piatt
|
Chicago White Sox
|
AL
|
1902
|
|
Brickyard
|
Kennedy
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1903
|
|
Jack
|
Harper
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1904
|
|
Deacon
|
Phillippe
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1905
|
|
Vic
|
Willis
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1906
|
|
Cy
|
Young
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
1907
|
|
Kaiser
|
Wilhelm
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1908
|
|
Earl
|
Moore
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1909
|
|
Ed
|
Walsh
|
Chicago White Sox
|
AL
|
1910
|
|
Art
|
Fromme
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1911
|
|
Otto
|
Hess
|
Boston Braves
|
NL
|
1912
|
|
George
|
McQuillan
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1913
|
|
Russ
|
Ford
|
Buffeds
|
FL
|
1914
|
|
Jack
|
Coombs
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1915
|
|
Larry
|
Cheney
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1916
|
|
Chief
|
Bender
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1917
|
|
Claude
|
Hendrix
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1918
|
|
Grover Cleveland
|
Alexander
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1919
|
|
Burleigh
|
Grimes
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1920
|
|
George
|
Mogridge
|
Washington Senators
|
AL
|
1921
|
|
Jeff
|
Pfeffer
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
1922
|
|
Grover Cleveland
|
Alexander
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1923
|
|
Carl
|
Mays
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1924
|
|
Stan
|
Coveleski
|
Washington Senators
|
AL
|
1925
|
|
Carl
|
Mays
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1926
|
|
Grover Cleveland
|
Alexander
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
1927
|
|
SadSam
|
Jones
|
Washington Senators
|
AL
|
1928
|
|
Tom
|
Zachary
|
New York Yankees
|
AL
|
1929
|
|
Dolf
|
Luque
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1930
|
|
Larry
|
Benton
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1931
|
|
Ted
|
Lyons
|
Chicago White Sox
|
AL
|
1932
|
|
Jesse
|
Haines
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
1933
|
|
Flint
|
Rhem
|
Cardinals-Braves
|
NL
|
1934
|
|
Lefty
|
Grove
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
1935
|
|
Ed
|
Brandt
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1936
|
|
Lefty
|
Gomez
|
New York Yankees
|
AL
|
1937
|
|
Paul
|
Derringer
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1938
|
|
Larry
|
French
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1939
|
|
Schoolboy
|
Rowe
|
Detroit Tigers
|
AL
|
1940
|
|
Lefty
|
Gomez
|
New York Yankees
|
AL
|
1941
|
|
Larry
|
French
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1942
|
|
Elmer
|
Riddle
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1943
|
|
Bucky
|
Walters
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1944
|
|
Roger
|
Wolff
|
Washington Senators
|
AL
|
1945
|
|
Bob
|
Feller
|
Cleveland Indians
|
AL
|
1946
|
|
George
|
Munger
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
1947
|
|
Preacher
|
Roe
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1948
|
|
Early
|
Wynn
|
Cleveland Indians
|
AL
|
1949
|
|
Dizzy
|
Trout
|
Detroit Tigers
|
AL
|
1950
|
|
Alex
|
Kellner
|
Philadelphia Athletics
|
AL
|
1951
|
|
Johnny
|
Sain
|
New York Yankees
|
AL
|
1952
|
|
Virgil
|
Trucks
|
Orioles-White Sox
|
AL
|
1953
|
|
Hal
|
Newhouser
|
Cleveland Indians
|
AL
|
1954
|
|
Don
|
Newcombe
|
Brooklyn Dodgers
|
NL
|
1955
|
|
Brooks
|
Lawrence
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1956
|
|
Bobby
|
Shantz
|
New York Yankees
|
AL
|
1957
|
|
Robin
|
Roberts
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1958
|
|
Don
|
Newcombe
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1959
|
|
Bob
|
Friend
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1960
|
|
Paul
|
Foytack
|
Detroit Tigers
|
AL
|
1961
|
|
Robin
|
Roberts
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
AL
|
1962
|
|
Lindy
|
McDaniel
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1963
|
|
Jim
|
Bunning
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1964
|
|
Bob
|
Shaw
|
San Francisco Giants
|
NL
|
1965
|
|
Phil
|
Regan
|
Los Angeles Dodgers
|
NL
|
1966
|
|
Ray
|
Sadecki
|
San Francisco Giants
|
NL
|
1967
|
|
Dick
|
Ellsworth
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
1968
|
|
Jim
|
Bunning
|
Pirates-Dodgers
|
NL
|
1969
|
|
Mudcat
|
Grant
|
A's-Pirates
|
AL
|
1970
|
|
Al
|
Downing
|
Los Angeles Dodgers
|
NL
|
1971
|
|
Luis
|
Tiant
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
1972
|
|
Bill
|
Singer
|
Los Angeles Angels
|
AL
|
1973
|
|
Larry
|
Dierker
|
Houston Astros
|
NL
|
1974
|
|
Jim
|
Palmer
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
AL
|
1975
|
|
Bill
|
Singer
|
Rangers-Twins
|
AL
|
1976
|
|
Goose
|
Gossage
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1977
|
|
Mike
|
Caldwell
|
Milwaukee Brewers
|
AL
|
1978
|
|
Jerry
|
Koosman
|
Minnesota Twins
|
AL
|
1979
|
|
Jerry
|
Reuss
|
Los Angeles Dodgers
|
NL
|
1980
|
|
Tom
|
Seaver
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
NL
|
1981
|
|
Jim
|
Palmer
|
Baltimore Orioles
|
AL
|
1982
|
|
John
|
Denny
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1983
|
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
Cleveland Indians
|
AL
|
1984
|
|
Ron
|
Guidry
|
New York Yankees
|
AL
|
1985
|
|
Rick
|
Rhoden
|
Pittsburgh Pirates
|
NL
|
1986
|
|
Pascual
|
Perez
|
Montreal Expos
|
NL
|
1987
|
|
Jerry
|
Reuss
|
Chicago White Sox
|
AL
|
1988
|
|
Bert
|
Blyleven
|
Los Angeles Angels
|
AL
|
1989
|
|
John
|
Tudor
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
1990
|
|
Mitch
|
Williams
|
Philadelphia Phillies
|
NL
|
1991
|
|
Doug
|
Jones
|
Houston Astros
|
NL
|
1992
|
|
Bryan
|
Harvey
|
Florida Marlins
|
NL
|
1993
|
|
Charles
|
Nagy
|
Cleveland Indians
|
AL
|
1994
|
|
Jaime
|
Navarro
|
Chicago Cubs
|
NL
|
1995
|
|
Juan
|
Guzman
|
Toronto Blue Jays
|
AL
|
1996
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
Seattle Mariners
|
AL
|
1997
|
|
Bret
|
Saberhagen
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
1998
|
|
Kevin
|
Appier
|
Royals-A's
|
AL
|
1999
|
|
Darryl
|
Kile
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
NL
|
2000
|
|
David
|
Cone
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
2001
|
|
Kevin
|
Millwood
|
Atlanta Braves
|
NL
|
2002
|
|
Mike
|
Hampton
|
Atlanta Braves
|
NL
|
2003
|
|
Randy
|
Johnson
|
Arizona Diamondbacks
|
NL
|
2004
|
|
Andy
|
Pettitte
|
Houston Astros
|
NL
|
2005
|
|
Curt
|
Schilling
|
Boston Red Sox
|
AL
|
2006
|
|
Oliver
|
Perez
|
New York Mets
|
NL
|
2007
|
|
Cliff
|
Lee
|
Indians
|
AL
|
2008
|
|
Chris
|
Carpenter
|
Cardinals
|
NL
|
2009
|
|
Billy
|
Wagner
|
Braves
|
NL
|
2010
|
|
Josh
|
Beckett
|
Red Sox
|
AL
|
2011
|
I have season scores for hitters, too, so this same process should work for hitters. I’ll try to get that done, and post it here before the season starts. Thanks for reading.