June 16 Poll Report
Good morning everybody. Kamala Harris thrashed Amy Klobuchar in yesterday’s poll, Harris winning 64-23 whereas previous polls had suggested it was likely to be more like 54-32. This is a reversal of the other two trends, which had shown Harris slipping and Klobuchar gaining strength. This is yesterday’s poll summary:
|
Scores
|
Bennet
|
134
|
Harris
|
817
|
Klobuchar
|
493
|
Moulton
|
77
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
|
Bennet
|
9
|
Harris
|
54
|
Klobuchar
|
32
|
Moulton
|
5
|
|
Actual
|
Bennet
|
8
|
Harris
|
64
|
Klobuchar
|
23
|
Moulton
|
5
|
Harris before yesterday’s poll had slipped 100 points in two weeks, whereas Klobuchar had gained steadily until reaching a peak of 506 about a week ago.
Removed from the data was the poll of April 26, which was Sanders, 47%; Hickenlooper, 26%; Yang, 21%; Moulton, 6%. The removal of that poll from the data takes about 10 points away from John Hickenlooper and divides those between Moulton and Yang, and essentially leaves Bernie unchanged. Three candidates had meaningful changes since yesterday, meaningful defined as "at least 5 points and at least 1% for that candidate":
o Kamala Harris is up 21 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
o John Hickenlooper is down 10 points as a result of the removal of the April 26 poll from the network of data points.
o Amy Klobuchar is down 19 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.
A total of 94 points have moved since yesterday, a mid-range number for a day.
A Twitter follower (sorry I didn’t write down the name) suggested that I color-code the chart (below) with green for candidates hitting a new high and red for those hitting a new low. I appreciate the suggestion; I’m not going to use red because Red now means Republican, and I’m not going to mark "highs" and "lows" exactly because a new high for a candidate may be just a 1% technical adjustment riding on a previous movement. I’ll use green (UP) and gray (DOWN), and I’ll mark candidates based on whether they are up 10% or down 10% in the last 30 days. These are the updated standings:
|
Rank
|
First
|
Last
|
Current
|
|
1
|
Elizabeth
|
Warren
|
1732
|
|
2
|
Joe
|
Biden
|
1193
|
|
3
|
Pete
|
Buttigieg
|
1162
|
|
4
|
Kamala
|
Harris
|
838
|
|
5
|
Bernie
|
Sanders
|
485
|
|
6
|
Amy
|
Klobuchar
|
474
|
|
7
|
Beto
|
O'Rourke
|
414
|
|
8
|
Cory
|
Booker
|
383
|
|
9
|
Stacey
|
Abrams
|
349
|
|
10
|
Kirsten
|
Gillibrand
|
335
|
|
11
|
Donald
|
Trump
|
282
|
|
12
|
Bill
|
Weld
|
268
|
|
13
|
Andrew
|
Yang
|
241
|
|
14
|
John
|
Hickenlooper
|
220
|
|
15
|
Jay
|
Inslee
|
213
|
|
16
|
Julian
|
Castro
|
201
|
|
17
|
Howard
|
Schultz
|
166
|
|
18
|
Tulsi
|
Gabbard
|
162
|
|
19
|
Jeff
|
Flake
|
134
|
|
20
|
Michael
|
Bennet
|
134
|
|
21
|
Steve
|
Bullock
|
89
|
|
22
|
Tim
|
Ryan
|
85
|
|
23
|
Eric
|
Swalwell
|
85
|
|
24
|
Seth
|
Moulton
|
81
|
|
25
|
Mike
|
Gravel
|
69
|
|
26
|
Marianne
|
Williamson
|
69
|
|
27
|
John
|
Delaney
|
63
|
|
28
|
Bill
|
de Blasio
|
49
|
|
29
|
Wayne
|
Messam
|
24
|
Now that I look at it, that’s too many people marked; I hadn’t expected that that many candidates would be up 10% or down 10%. If I do that again I’ll set the cutoff at 20%, probably. The purpose of highlighting is to draw focus. If you highlight too many lines it becomes ineffective.
Thanks for reading.