How Good is Kyler Murray?

February 14, 2019
 Last week’s Stat of the Week covered the SIS rankings and stats for the top players available in this year’s NFL Draft. There’s another player who generated headlines this week who was not at the top of those rankings. Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray announced he would pursue a career in the NFL rather than in professional baseball.
 

Murray is the No. 2 ranked quarterback in The SIS Football Rookie Handbookbehind Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. But Murray is the most impressive quarterback from a statistical perspective.

There are concerns that Murray is too small to succeed in the NFL (he’s 5'9½"). But Murray leads this year’s top quarterback prospects in all of the leaderboards listed in our book.

 

Kyler Murray Leads QB Prospects In …

Category Value
Pass Yards Per Attempt 11.6
On-Target Percentage 79.2
Independent QB Rating (IQR) 143.2
Expected Points Added Per Dropback 0.47
Rushing Expected Points Added 61.4
Total Expected Points Added 236.9

 

* Independent QB Rating (IQR) builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.

** Expected Points Added (EPA) is the change in Expected Points for the offense on a play.

In several of these categories, Murray has a sizable advantage. He leads West Virginia’s Will Grier by nearly two yards per attempt, 16 points in IQR and nearly 97 Total Expected Points Added.

Murray also mostly passes the eye test. In The SIS Football Rookie Handbook, Murray is described as "a rare playmaker at the quarterback position with the requisite mental capacity to maximize his arm talent and mobility but may need to rework his release as a pro to mitigate size concerns."

 
 

COMMENTS (2 Comments, most recent shown first)

evanecurb
YouTube video of Murray playing baseball at OU

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YmFw4F0Ajf0
11:53 AM Feb 17th
 
MarisFan61
These data don't at all address the concern about his pro prospects, do they? The only thing that comes close is the last paragraph, which interestingly begins with (emphasis added) "Murray also mostly passes the eye test."
(Well said, re the qualifier.)

So, while these data are interesting from the standpoint of how good he was as a college QB, I don't think they show any more than that.

It seems that if one wanted to use such data to address the concern, an example of a way perhaps to do it would be to see how previous QB's with similar college data and with a similar issue did in the NFL, or some such.

A penny for the author's thoughts.... :-)
(I don't know that we get replies from SIS.)
10:36 PM Feb 14th
 
 
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