BILL JAMES ONLINE

How Well Do You Know Your BBWAA? (2019 Version)

November 24, 2018
Interested in a contest? No cash rewards….just bragging rights among your fellow Bill James Online Members.
 
A few years ago, I started a thread on Reader Posts that amounted to a simple contest – predicting what % of the vote that each player on the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) Hall of Fame ballot would receive in that year’s voting. A small group of members (just 6 of us) participated, but I thought it was a lot of fun, and it made tracking the discussion leading up to the announcement of the results much more interesting. 
 
And to make it even sweeter….I won. Sure, it was only 6 of us….but it was still satisfying.
 
A couple of years ago, I took it to a broader audience, and posted it as an article on this web site. 18 members participated. 
 
Last year we repeated the contest, and we increased participation to 26 members. I’m hoping for an even larger response this time.
 
Here’s how it works. There are 35 names on the 2019 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. You submit an entry where you predict the % of the vote that each of the 35 players will receive in the final vote tally
 
When the final results are announced, we’ll add up the errors (the sum of the number of percentage points that you’re off on each player’s prediction) to see what your total "error score" is, and then divide that by 35 to get an average error. The member with the lowest average error score is the winner.
 
Normally, I include my entry in this article by way of example, but based on some feedback I’m going to hold off submitting it just yet. I will submit it shortly, probably within the next couple of days
 
One of the challenges of predicting the results is that first-time players on the ballot don’t have a track record from previous years.   Although, conversely, many of the first timers are easy because you would expect them to receive very little or no support. And, of course, each year experiences its own dynamic of players that make a big move up or down in the % of the vote received, and sometimes you get players nearing the end of their run on the ballot, which can result in a big impact on their vote totals. 
 
Remember, who’s in or out is not the important thing about this contest. The key is the individual %’s that we are predicting, and how far off we are.
 
For example….let’s say you predict that Barry Bonds will receive 55% of the vote, and he actually receives 60% of the vote this time. The error score on Bonds would be 5 percentage points. The scoring takes the absolute value of the difference (in percentage points) between the predicted % and the actual %. Direction (high or low) doesn’t matter….it’s how many percentage points there are between the predicted and the actual. Then we average all of your individual error scores to get an overall average error score.
 
(Now, some might suggest that a "forecast" error should technically be calculated as (actual-error)/actual, but I’m choosing not to do it that way. I’m keeping this contest simple. If you’re off by a percentage point, high or low, that will be considered a 1 percentage point error, and we’ll just calculate the average errors that way.)
 
Also, I should note that predictions should not based on who you think is deserving. You’re trying to predict what a body of around 420 voters will do. 
 
You can submit an entry now. I’ll keep the contest open through Tuesday December 4th. That should give you plenty of time to come up with your entry. I’ll post reminders along the way. 
 
Actual results won’t be tallied until the Hall of Fame results are announced. According to the BBWAA web site, the writers can submit their ballots through December 31st, and results are scheduled to be announced Jan 22, 2019.
 
Why am I cutting it off so early (December 4th)? Well, as we get deeper into December, more and more voters decide to publish and/or comment on their ballots (on Twitter, in a column, etc.), and they are collected and displayed in Ryan Thibodaux’s "Hall of Fame Tracker" (also referred to as the "Gizmo") which is available online, and you can see how the "public" ballot results are tracking. Now, not every voter makes his or her ballot public ahead of time, and sometimes the results can be quite deceptive ("public" voters have had a tendency to vote for more players per ballot, on average, than "private" voters do). But, still, I want to have people submit their ballots before too many ballots become public knowledge. I think it’s fairer to do it that way rather than having someone potentially gain an advantage by waiting for more and more information to be published.
 
Here’s a link to last year's contest results
 
The top 5 entries from last year were:
Member
Avg. Error
ChrisBodig
1.36
jpc1957
2.62
llozada
2.90
Dan
2.93
hansjn
3.30
 
If you go back 2 years, here were the top 5 entries:
Member
Avg. Error
jpc1957
2.95
Dan
3.32
ChrisBodig
3.33
MarisFan61
3.37
DaveNJnews
4.12
 
So, as you can see, members ChrisBodig and jpc1957 have been very consistent. Will one of them take the crown for a second time, or will we have a new champion this year?
 
So, that’s it. Use whatever approach you like. Research past voting history. Consult your Ouija board, your crystal ball, your wheel of fortune. Whatever works for you.
 
Here’s how to submit an entry: 
 
  1. Highlight the entire listing of names below with your mouse
  2. Hit <ctrl> C to Copy
  3. Click on the "Add a Comment" link at the end of this article
  4. Click inside the comment box and hit <ctrl> V to Paste. This should paste the list into the comment
  5. After the dash following each player’s name, type in your % prediction for that player (please limit it to no more than 1 decimal place).
  6. Post your comment
 
 
Here is the listing to copy and paste into your comment. Remember to enter your predicted percentages, and don’t skip anybody:
 
Rick Ankiel-
Jason Bay-
Lance Berkman-
Barry Bonds-
Roger Clemens-
Freddy Garcia-
Jon Garland-
Travis Hafner-
Roy Halladay-
Todd Helton-
Andruw Jones-
Jeff Kent-
Ted Lilly-
Derek Lowe-
Edgar Martinez-
Fred McGriff-
Mike Mussina-
Darren Oliver-
Roy Oswalt-
Andy Pettitte-
Juan Pierre-
Placido Polanco-
Manny Ramirez-
Mariano Rivera-
Scott Rolen-
Curt Schilling-
Gary Sheffield-
Sammy Sosa-
Miguel Tejada-
Omar Vizquel-
Billy Wagner-
Larry Walker-
Vernon Wells-
Kevin Youkilis-
Michael Young-
 
Thank you, and good luck!
Dan 
 
 

COMMENTS (36 Comments, most recent shown first)

MarisFan61
Re this thing I said about the Veterans Committee vote:
That article on Chris's website mentions who are the other candidates this year for the Veterans Committee -- and how Smith would appear to be well positioned among them.
I think he's right.
Here are the others, none of whom would get more than half a second of consideration from me (if I were on there) before knowing that Smith is the only one I'd be voting for and feeling confident that the limit on how many "yes'es" each voter can say won't be keeping many of them from giving him a nod....


That was half right: Nobody else kept Smith from making it -- but Harold Baines made it too!

We're talking about that on Reader Posts:
boards.billjamesonline.com/showthread.php?10448-Harold-Baines
As you might guess, hardly any of us aren't surprised, and hardly any of us think he should have made it.
But, it seems, nobody doesn't like Harold Baines.
9:22 PM Dec 9th
 
MarisFan61
From Chris's article on his website about the first-time candidates, here's a thing that's quite something:

"I’ve listed Andy Pettitte before Todd Helton because I’m certain that, at the very least, he’ll get more votes."

My goodness gracious. :-)
Chris, who apparently sort of lives and breathes this stuff, feels certain that Pettitte will out-ballot Helton.

Most of us greatly disagree.
The great majority of us -- dunno, something like 18 out of 20 of the rest of us -- think Helton will get more, and I think for most of us, it's many more.

I love stuff like this.
We shall see.
Whichever way it comes out, I'll be fascinated -- either that most of us (and we're not dumb) didn't realize what was so certain, or that the one among us who has perhaps studied it most and who Babe Ruth'ed us last year was wrong on what he thought was certain.....

It's another kind of thing that makes me love all this Hall of Fame stuff, and makes me dumbfounded that so many people think the process stinks.....
8:26 PM Dec 7th
 
MarisFan61
Chris: Thanks for the reminder about your website!

("Reminder" being a euphemism, because I'm not sure I knew he had one.) :-)

And thanks for that piece on Lee Smith, who I'd love to see make it -- and who I didn't even know was up again this year.
In fact I didn't know there's a Veterans Committee vote this year. I've lost track of how it works now. In fact I do know that it's not called "Veterans Committee" any more, but sorry, that's what I'm gonna keep calling it, including because I have doubts that the stupid current name will be maintained for long, plus I'm slow about such things anyway.
BTW, there's lot of company on being slow on such things. Who really calls the West Side Highway in Manhattan the "Joe DiMaggio Highway"?
(answer: absolutely nobody, I think)
Who says "RFK Bridge" for the Triboro?

Also, you tennis guys probably remember how long some of the players kept calling the U.S. Open the "Forest Hills" long after Forest Hills had blown the tournament off.


That article on Chris's website mentions who are the other candidates this year for the Veterans Committee -- and how Smith would appear to be well positioned among them.
I think he's right.
Here are the others, none of whom would get more than half a second of consideration from me (if I were on there) before knowing that Smith is the only one I'd be voting for and feeling confident that the limit on how many "yes'es" each voter can say won't be keeping many of them from giving him a nod.
(the other candidates:
Will Clark, Albert Belle, Joe Carter, Harold Baines, Orel Hershiser;
Lou Piniella, Davey Johnson, Charlie Manuel, George Steinbrenner)


Feels like the suspense this time around will be mainly just on whether Halladay and/or Mussina will be joining Mo, Edgar, and Lee at the induction next summer. I'll be surprised if Smith doesn't make it.
7:49 PM Dec 7th
 
MarisFan61
Observation that may or may not have predictive value, but I'd guess it does:

First the possible conclusion, then the observation:
Chris and Dan will do very well, and in any event their scores will be very similar.

Just eyeballing all the entries, I think theirs are the two "most similar."
They see the candidates very similarly.

I'd guess that means there's a high chance they're "right."

Of course it could just be that they're relying on a way of approaching this which, they saw, worked in the last few years -- but that this year is different and that it won't work this time.
(I had to come up with something to cover it in case I'm wrong.) :-)

I'm predicting them to be in the top 3.
Which of course we didn't necessarily need a "method" to do.
3:42 PM Dec 5th
 
tigerlily
Maris - It's probably not the best time to take a vacation in Anchorage, Alaska.
2:35 AM Dec 5th
 
chrisbodig
MarisFan61, agree it's interesting the different numbers for Berkman and Helton. First timers in general are obviously the hardest.

I look at Berkman at being the Jim Edmonds of 2019 but without the the 8 Gold Gloves.

Helton was the biggest mystery. He's gotta be way below Walker, right? Similar offensive numbers but without the 5-tool component and the WAR.
12:43 AM Dec 5th
 
MarisFan61
....Big spread among us on Helton and Berkman; I think they show the largest. I mean, larger gross spread on Halladay but bigger proportional spreads on those two others.

Dan: Good idea putting the deadline now. It would be less of a challenge if it went further into when the actual ballots are revealed.
10:23 PM Dec 4th
 
MarisFan61
Looking forward to seeing how the champs do. Great that we have all 3 on here.


C'mon, anybody who hasn't entered -- under an hour left.....
(unless you're in Chicago or Seattle or Alaska or someplace like that....)
But I don't know if Dan will follow that.

Hey Dan, if someone's in Alaska, you gotta give them like another 5 hours or something like that, right? :-)

(Anyone who's a couple hours late: just say you're on vacation in Anchorage.)​
10:18 PM Dec 4th
 
chrisbodig
With the honor of being the defending champion in this contest, I hereby submit my predictions for 2019.

Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 4
Barry Bonds- 60
Roger Clemens- 61
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 83
Todd Helton- 21
Andruw Jones- 11
Jeff Kent- 18
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 84
Fred McGriff- 30
Mike Mussina- 75
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 2
Andy Pettitte- 28
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 1
Manny Ramirez- 22
Mariano Rivera- 98
Scott Rolen- 17
Curt Schilling- 61
Gary Sheffield- 14
Sammy Sosa- 9
Miguel Tejada- 2
Omar Vizquel- 48
Billy Wagner- 13
Larry Walker- 47
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0
Michael Young- 3

Good luck to everyone. Please visit my website (Cooperstown Cred) for profiles on many of these candidates.

Chris


7:18 PM Dec 4th
 
tigerlily
Maybe I'll do better than usual this year, but I doubt it.

Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 15
Barry Bonds- 57
Roger Clemens- 58
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 50
Todd Helton- 22
Andruw Jones- 10
Jeff Kent- 12
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 77
Fred McGriff- 26
Mike Mussina- 67
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 3
Andy Pettitte- 15
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 20
Mariano Rivera- 97
Scott Rolen- 16
Curt Schilling- 53
Gary Sheffield- 11
Sammy Sosa- 7
Miguel Tejada- 4
Omar Vizquel- 35
Billy Wagner- 10
Larry Walker- 37
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0
Michael Young- 1
11:14 AM Dec 4th
 
jpc1957
Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-22
Barry Bonds-63
Roger Clemens-65
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-1
Roy Halladay-72
Todd Helton-52
Andruw Jones-9
Jeff Kent-15
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-0
Edgar Martinez-77
Fred McGriff-27
Mike Mussina-70
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-17
Andy Pettitte-35
Juan Pierre-0
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-24
Mariano Rivera-98
Scott Rolen-12
Curt Schilling-53
Gary Sheffield-13
Sammy Sosa-9
Miguel Tejada-2
Omar Vizquel-41
Billy Wagner-13
Larry Walker-37
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-7
11:40 PM Dec 3rd
 
BrentHr
Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-3
Barry Bonds-58
Roger Clemens-59
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-2
Roy Halladay-15
Todd Helton-27
Andruw Jones-0
Jeff Kent-10
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-0
Edgar Martinez-81
Fred McGriff-20
Mike Mussina-75
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-2
Andy Pettitte-10
Juan Pierre-1
Placido Polanco-3
Manny Ramirez-15
Mariano Rivera-99
Scott Rolen-20
Curt Schilling-65
Gary Sheffield-10
Sammy Sosa-7
Miguel Tejada-15
Omar Vizquel-45
Billy Wagner-12
Larry Walker-40
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-15
11:01 PM Dec 3rd
 
brewers_paul
Berkman, Halladay, Helton and Pettitte make it tough :)

Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-10
Barry Bonds-57
Roger Clemens-59.5
Freddy Garcia-1
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-0
Roy Halladay-60
Todd Helton-20
Andruw Jones-6
Jeff Kent-16
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-1
Edgar Martinez-76
Fred McGriff-25
Mike Mussina-73
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-4.5
Andy Pettitte-14.5
Juan Pierre-0
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-23
Mariano Rivera-92.5
Scott Rolen-13
Curt Schilling-54.5
Gary Sheffield-11.5
Sammy Sosa-7
Miguel Tejada-5
Omar Vizquel-37
Billy Wagner-12.5
Larry Walker-40
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-1
1:30 PM Dec 3rd
 
MarisFan61
Several of the new guys are tough.

Look at the disparities on Berkman!
Dan (the great Dan :-) shows the lowest figure so far.
My own true-gut best judgment would be about what Dan said (low single digit). But, I put it a lot higher because of this indirect thing: his record has remarkable similarities to Helton and even to Walker, and I'm guessing that some fraction of the voters will feel that if they vote for either of those, they ought to give a nod to Berkman too -- "how can I vote for [whichever] and not vote for Berkman....."
Walker of course has the advantage of this not being his 1st try. He did a lot less well the 1st than he's done since.
3:36 PM Dec 1st
 
George.Rising
I think Halladay is going to be the most interesting case, and it's the one that I had the most trouble in predicting.

IMO, he's a HOFer, but not a first-ballot HOFer. And there certainly are HOF voters who only want to vote in all-time greats on their first ballot. However, Halladay's recent passing might put him over 75% on his first try. We'll see ...
3:07 PM Nov 30th
 
MarisFan61
Correction to a thing I posted down there, about Rivera getting just 2 yes'es on the first 5 revealed ballots:

Sorry -- that was a mistake.
It's what was shown at the time on the Tracker page (and still is shown on some versions of it).
It's not really so. He actually has 10 out of 10 so far.
9:26 PM Nov 29th
 
metsfan17
Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman-17
Barry Bonds-48
Roger Clemens-51
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-0
Roy Halladay-76
Todd Helton-62
Andruw Jones-28
Jeff Kent-37
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-0
Edgar Martinez-78
Fred McGriff-35
Mike Mussina-45
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-4
Andy Pettitte-36
Juan Pierre-3
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-40
Mariano Rivera-98
Scott Rolen-32
Curt Schilling-64
Gary Sheffield-27
Sammy Sosa-31
Miguel Tejada-12
Omar Vizquel-55
Billy Wagner-46
Larry Walker-62
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-6
12:07 PM Nov 29th
 
metsfan17
Rick Ankiel-
Jason Bay-
Lance Berkman-
Barry Bonds-
Roger Clemens-
Freddy Garcia-
Jon Garland-
Travis Hafner-
Roy Halladay-
Todd Helton-
Andruw Jones-
Jeff Kent-
Ted Lilly-
Derek Lowe-
Edgar Martinez-
Fred McGriff-
Mike Mussina-
Darren Oliver-
Roy Oswalt-
Andy Pettitte-
Juan Pierre-
Placido Polanco-
Manny Ramirez-
Mariano Rivera-
Scott Rolen-
Curt Schilling-
Gary Sheffield-
Sammy Sosa-
Miguel Tejada-
Omar Vizquel-
Billy Wagner-
Larry Walker-
Vernon Wells-
Kevin Youkilis-
Michael Young-
12:04 PM Nov 29th
 
Patrick
Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-7
Barry Bonds-60
Roger Clemens-61
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-0
Roy Halladay-52
Todd Helton-28
Andruw Jones-11
Jeff Kent-18
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-0
Edgar Martinez-82
Fred McGriff-29
Mike Mussina-73
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-3
Andy Pettitte-20
Juan Pierre-0
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-25
Mariano Rivera-93
Scott Rolen-16
Curt Schilling-56
Gary Sheffield-14
Sammy Sosa-10
Miguel Tejada-4
Omar Vizquel-43
Billy Wagner-13
Larry Walker-41
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-1
6:06 PM Nov 28th
 
George.Rising
Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-10
Barry Bonds-60
Roger Clemens-60
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-0
Roy Halladay-60
Todd Helton-15
Andruw Jones-7
Jeff Kent-16
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-5
Edgar Martinez-75
Fred McGriff-25
Mike Mussina-75
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-10
Andy Pettitte-20
Juan Pierre-0
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-25
Mariano Rivera-92
Scott Rolen-15
Curt Schilling-55
Gary Sheffield-11
Sammy Sosa-8
Miguel Tejada-5
Omar Vizquel-45
Billy Wagner-12
Larry Walker-35
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-0

11:20 AM Nov 28th
 
bdhopkin

Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 6.4
Barry Bonds- 63.3
Roger Clemens- 64.4
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 73.2
Todd Helton- 49.0
Andruw Jones- 13.4
Jeff Kent- 11.9
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 79.8
Fred McGriff- 28.9
Mike Mussina- 76.6
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 2.6
Andy Pettitte- 18.9
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 23.0
Mariano Rivera- 97.6
Scott Rolen- 14.9
Curt Schilling- 53.7
Gary Sheffield- 16.8
Sammy Sosa- 7.6
Miguel Tejada- 1.1
Omar Vizquel- 39.1
Billy Wagner- 17.0
Larry Walker- 47.0
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0.2
Michael Young- 1.1
8:02 PM Nov 27th
 
DMBBHF
Time to submit mine.....

Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-3.5
Barry Bonds-58.5
Roger Clemens-58.5
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-0
Roy Halladay-79
Todd Helton-35
Andruw Jones-11
Jeff Kent-15
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-0
Edgar Martinez-82
Fred McGriff-24.5
Mike Mussina-76.5
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-1
Andy Pettitte-25
Juan Pierre-0
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-25
Mariano Rivera-98
Scott Rolen-19
Curt Schilling-57
Gary Sheffield-10
Sammy Sosa-8
Miguel Tejada-1
Omar Vizquel-40
Billy Wagner-13
Larry Walker-45
Vernon Wells-0
Kevin Youkilis-0
Michael Young-0

Dan
6:37 PM Nov 27th
 
bobburpee
Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay-0
Lance Berkman-20
Barry Bonds-60
Roger Clemens-60
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner-2
Roy Halladay-50
Todd Helton-50
Andruw Jones-50
Jeff Kent-20
Ted Lilly-0
Derek Lowe-8
Edgar Martinez-80
Fred McGriff-25
Mike Mussina-78
Darren Oliver-0
Roy Oswalt-25
Andy Pettitte-35
Juan Pierre-1
Placido Polanco-0
Manny Ramirez-30
Mariano Rivera-95
Scott Rolen-70
Curt Schilling-60
Gary Sheffield-20
Sammy Sosa-7
Miguel Tejada-20
Omar Vizquel-15
Billy Wagner-10
Larry Walker-40
Vernon Wells-2
Kevin Youkilis-4
Michael Young-6
10:38 PM Nov 26th
 
Fireball Wenz
Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 3
Lance Berkman- 6
Barry Bonds- 62
Roger Clemens- 62
Freddy Garcia- 5
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 32
Todd Helton- 16
Andruw Jones- 9
Jeff Kent- 12
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 2
Edgar Martinez- 76
Fred McGriff- 20
Mike Mussina- 69
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 5
Andy Pettitte- 18
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 15
Mariano Rivera- 88
Scott Rolen- 14
Curt Schilling- 56
Gary Sheffield- 12
Sammy Sosa- 13
Miguel Tejada- 14
Omar Vizquel- 41
Billy Wagner- 8
Larry Walker- 33
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0
Michael Young- 1

2:56 PM Nov 26th
 
MarisFan61
Bulletin: Results of 5 ballots already appearing on the BBHOF Tracker page -- and on those, Rivera has "40%."
(2 out of 5)

Ignoring what we know about "small samples," that means either that all of us who said real high numbers for him are in trouble, or voters who reveal their ballots super-early tend to be jerks; or maybe not jerks but 'trying to make a point.'

You may recall that last year, Vizquel had 100% on the first 7 or 8 revealed ballots....I knew he wasn't going to wind up with 100% or even 99%, but I did figure it meant my estimate of 11% probably wasn't going to do real well.
9:52 PM Nov 25th
 
rwarn17588
Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 1
Lance Berkman- 7
Barry Bonds- 58
Roger Clemens- 59
Freddy Garcia- 1
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 1
Roy Halladay- 81
Todd Helton- 25
Andruw Jones- 11
Jeff Kent- 16
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 1
Edgar Martinez- 77
Fred McGriff- 24
Mike Mussina- 74
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 5
Andy Pettitte- 12
Juan Pierre- 1
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 13
Mariano Rivera- 99
Scott Rolen- 19
Curt Schilling- 59
Gary Sheffield- 11
Sammy Sosa- 6
Miguel Tejada- 5
Omar Vizquel- 39
Billy Wagner- 16
Larry Walker- 45
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 1
Michael Young- 4
1:29 PM Nov 25th
 
MarisFan61
I ditto.

I suspect, though, that doing 'better' than last year (for any of us) might not mean getting better scores, but just doing better relative to our whole crowd, because I think this year is harder, and so our average error will be higher, despite our being smarter each year about it, which I think we are.

(BTW I don't think Strunk & White would have liked that sentence.)​
11:33 AM Nov 25th
 
terrific
I also hope I do better this year!
Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 5
Barry Bonds- 75
Roger Clemens- 75
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 60
Todd Helton- 46
Andruw Jones- 8
Jeff Kent- 8
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 79
Fred McGriff- 19
Mike Mussina- 60
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 2
Andy Pettitte- 19
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 15
Mariano Rivera- 99
Scott Rolen- 19
Curt Schilling- 48
Gary Sheffield- 10
Sammy Sosa- 7
Miguel Tejada- 2
Omar Vizquel- 29
Billy Wagner- 5
Larry Walker- 29
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 1
Michael Young- 1
7:40 AM Nov 25th
 
ropalmer
Hoping to do better than last year's pathetic maiden effort.

Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 15
Barry Bonds- 59
Roger Clemens- 66
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 2
Roy Halladay- 63
Todd Helton- 38
Andruw Jones- 5
Jeff Kent- 22
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 1
Edgar Martinez- 78
Fred McGriff- 30
Mike Mussina- 74
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 5
Andy Pettitte- 25
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 32
Mariano Rivera- 98
Scott Rolen- 25
Curt Schilling- 59
Gary Sheffield- 15
Sammy Sosa- 13
Miguel Tejada- 6
Omar Vizquel- 55
Billy Wagner- 9
Larry Walker- 48
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0
Michael Young- 0

4:55 AM Nov 25th
 
MarisFan61
Submitting it right away so I won't be tempted to cheat off of the 3 champs after they put theirs in:

Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 18
Barry Bonds- 61
Roger Clemens- 62
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 55
Todd Helton- 42
Andruw Jones- 8
Jeff Kent- 18
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 86
Fred McGriff- 32
Mike Mussina- 75
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 3
Andy Pettitte- 18
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 2
Manny Ramirez- 27
Mariano Rivera- 97
Scott Rolen- 18
Curt Schilling- 54
Gary Sheffield- 13
Sammy Sosa- 8
Miguel Tejada- 3
Omar Vizquel- 48
Billy Wagner- 12
Larry Walker- 50
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0
Michael Young- 3
2:44 AM Nov 25th
 
Dhandforth
Hi Dan: Thanks for doing the heavy lifting for this fun contest again

Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 10
Lance Berkman- 13
Barry Bonds- 65
Roger Clemens- 65
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 5
Roy Halladay- 65
Todd Helton- 30
Andruw Jones- 15
Jeff Kent- 22
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 72
Fred McGriff- 35
Mike Mussina- 68
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 3
Andy Pettitte- 10
Juan Pierre- 3
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 23
Mariano Rivera- 92
Scott Rolen- 24
Curt Schilling- 55
Gary Sheffield- 17
Sammy Sosa- 8
Miguel Tejada- 9
Omar Vizquel- 38
Billy Wagner- 12
Larry Walker- 35
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 0
Michael Young- 0
1:03 AM Nov 25th
 
MarisFan61
I don't agree with "Here’s how to submit an entry"!

Here's how to submit an entry:

-- Wait till Dan, ChrisBodig, and JPC1957 submit their ballots.
-- Copy off of them. :-)


I'm actually glad you're holding back on yours for a while, for that exact reason: If you showed your ballot, even if I were determined not to 'cheat' it would be impossible for me not to be influenced by your ballot.....likewise by Chris's and JPC's....even recognizing that it's not like anyone should assume that you guys' guesses will always be so on-target, and no offense to anyone else who'll be listing their ballots early, as though their ballots aren't worthy of being copied. :-)

Just the same, I kinda hope Chris and JPC will hold back for a while too.

And if they come out good again, I'll figure it's because they copied off my ballot. :-) :-)
12:40 AM Nov 25th
 
shthar
Make sure your guesses are based on a non-secret ballot.
11:25 PM Nov 24th
 
Jack
Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 15
Barry Bonds- 65
Roger Clemens- 62
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 60
Todd Helton- 30
Andruw Jones- 12
Jeff Kent- 19
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 80
Fred McGriff- 25
Mike Mussina- 68
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 2
Andy Pettitte- 20
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 15
Mariano Rivera- 90
Scott Rolen- 25
Curt Schilling- 40
Gary Sheffield- 25
Sammy Sosa- 15
Miguel Tejada- 1
Omar Vizquel- 28
Billy Wagner- 10
Larry Walker- 30
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 1
Michael Young- 1

- Jack
6:02 PM Nov 24th
 
evanecurb
Rick Ankiel- 0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 12
Barry Bonds- 68
Roger Clemens- 68
Freddy Garcia- 0
Jon Garland- 0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 48
Todd Helton- 35
Andruw Jones- 9
Jeff Kent- 15
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0
Edgar Martinez- 77
Fred McGriff- 24
Mike Mussina- 66
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 4
Andy Pettitte- 26
Juan Pierre- 0
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 19
Mariano Rivera- 97
Scott Rolen- 22
Curt Schilling- 50
Gary Sheffield- 10
Sammy Sosa- 9
Miguel Tejada- 3
Omar Vizquel- 33
Billy Wagner- 11
Larry Walker- 32
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 1
Michael Young- 3
5:49 PM Nov 24th
 
DaveNJnews
I’ll start. 4 projected elected

Rick Ankiel-0
Jason Bay- 0
Lance Berkman- 14.6
Barry Bonds- 60.3
Roger Clemens- 60.6
Freddy Garcia-0
Jon Garland-0
Travis Hafner- 0
Roy Halladay- 80.0
Todd Helton- 22.9
Andruw Jones- 11.1
Jeff Kent- 18.3
Ted Lilly- 0
Derek Lowe- 0.7
Edgar Martinez- 78.7
Fred McGriff- 23.2
Mike Mussina- 76.2
Darren Oliver- 0
Roy Oswalt- 4.5
Andy Pettitte- 3.6
Juan Pierre-0.7
Placido Polanco- 0
Manny Ramirez- 22.9
Mariano Rivera- 98.5
Scott Rolen- 18.3
Curt Schilling- 56.0
Gary Sheffield- 17.3
Sammy Sosa- 10.0
Miguel Tejada- 8.5
Omar Vizquel- 37.9
Billy Wagner- 18.5
Larry Walker- 37.5
Vernon Wells- 0
Kevin Youkilis- 1.4
Michael Young - 0.3
2:33 PM Nov 24th
 
 
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