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Is the Ted Williams Shift Effective?

By John Dewan
November 30, 2011
The short answer: Absolutely.

But only if the bases are empty.

For the past two years Baseball Info Solutions has been tracking every play during which the defensive team employs a "Ted Williams" type shift where three infielders are playing to the right of second base. Based on our preliminary study of this data, The Shift works when the bases are empty.

There are five players who faced the shift more than 200 times in 2010 and 2011. They are David Ortiz, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn and Prince Fielder. When looking at groundballs and short liners that they hit (balls that can be handled by infielders), every one of them did worse when facing The Shift with no one on base. Here are the results:

Batting Average, 2010-2011
Groundballs and Short Liners Only, Bases Empty
  Shift On No Shift
David Ortiz .208 .259
Ryan Howard .174 .273
Carlos Pena .183 .213
Adam Dunn .207 .263
Prince Fielder .208 .248

On average, that's 55 points of batting average lost to The Shift.

Based on a smaller sample size (because managers employ The Shift less often with men on base), the data is only showing a 3-point batting average drop when using The Shift with runners on.

These are our preliminary findings. We will study this in greater detail in The Fielding Bible-Volume III   coming out in the spring.
 
 

COMMENTS (8 Comments, most recent shown first)

jdewan
Moscow: These are preliminary findings. We are looking at the shift data more in depth now and will publish those results in The Fielding Bible III. Just a quick comment: in the groundball and short liner data we were looking at, there are not very many extra-base hits. A few doubles, no triples or homers. So far, I think batting average is the best way to look at this.

Those: Yes, I remember Bill's comments about David Ortiz as well. What I recall is Bill saying that baserunners can have a field day when infielders are shifted, meaning that he was primarily questioning the shift with runners on base.
2:14 PM Dec 3rd
 
moscow25
Why are we looking at BA here? Shouldn't we consider a complete stat like wOBA? Or are the results the same, and BA is easier to understand? If hitters slug for a higher average or (somehow) draw more walks vs the shift, doesn't that matter more than differences in BA?
9:36 PM Dec 2nd
 
those
When Bill started the Gold Mine, he made a point to say how useless he thought the shift was against Ortiz. I remember thinking at the time that maybe he said that because, you know, there was no way he was going to say, "Here's a strategy people use against us and it's quite effective."



































































































































































9:05 AM Dec 1st
 
jalbright
Walker
E. Martinez
Dawson
4:35 AM Dec 1st
 
tangotiger
Can you show their BA/OBP/SLG when the shift is on, compared to not, with bases empty? That is, don't limit it to just GB and short liners.
11:33 PM Nov 30th
 
glkanter
I grew up thinking The Shift was meant to entice a slugger to 'take' the easy base hit against the open side of the infield, rather than take his regular cut.

I guess it's time for me to re-think the purpose of The Shift.
11:32 PM Nov 30th
 
Trailbzr
Thanks; BillJ disputed this a couple of years ago in the introductory comment of a blog-post.

The next logical question is whether there's a shift that could be used against right-handers.​
7:57 PM Nov 30th
 
Marinerfan1986
Maybe Lou Boudreau, who introduced the shift was on to something.
6:31 PM Nov 30th
 
 
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