James Loney, the steadily unspectacular first baseman for the Los Angeles Trolley Dodgers, has hit sixty-seven homeruns in 2736 career at-bats, a rate of one homer per forty at-bats.
This is not a league-leading rate. It has been a league-leading rate…way back in 1915. That was the year Braggo Roth paced the American League with seven round-trippers, a pace of one homer per fifty-five at-bats. But…the NL of 2012 is a long way away from the AL of 1915.
So what makes James Loney a (long-shot) candidate to lead the NL in homeruns?
Ted Kluszewski.
Or: Ted Kluszewski, Loney’s closest comparable player.
Kluszewski and Loney both reached the majors at twenty-two. Both were highly touted prospects, though they reached the majors through different channels. Kluszewski, a star tight-end for the University of Indiana, sort of lucked into the majors: a groundskeeper employed by the Reds witnessed Kluszewski hitting baseballs, and passed his name along to upper management. Like a few others of his era, Kluszewski was a football player who played baseball.
Loney, in contrast, was a baseball player through-and-through. In high school, he hit .509, and as a pitcher averaged nearly two strikeouts per inning pitched. He was a first-round selection in the draft (19th overall). At twenty-two, he hit .380 in AAA ball.
Both Kluszewski and Loney got a cup of coffee in the major leagues at twenty-two. Here are their statistics from ages 22-26, starting with the big Red:
Age
|
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
22
|
Klusz
|
9
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
.100
|
23
|
Klusz
|
113
|
49
|
23
|
12
|
57
|
.274
|
24
|
Klusz
|
136
|
63
|
26
|
8
|
68
|
.309
|
25
|
Klusz
|
134
|
76
|
37
|
25
|
111
|
.307
|
26
|
Klusz
|
154
|
74
|
35
|
13
|
77
|
.259
|
Totals
|
Klusz
|
546
|
263
|
121
|
58
|
315
|
.286
|
And Loney:
Age
|
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
22
|
Loney
|
48
|
20
|
6
|
4
|
18
|
.284
|
23
|
Loney
|
96
|
41
|
18
|
15
|
67
|
.331
|
24
|
Loney
|
161
|
60
|
35
|
13
|
98
|
.289
|
25
|
Loney
|
158
|
73
|
25
|
13
|
90
|
.281
|
26
|
Loney
|
161
|
67
|
41
|
10
|
88
|
.267
|
Totals
|
Loney
|
624
|
261
|
125
|
55
|
361
|
.288
|
Though their first five seasons, Kluszewski and Loney were very comparable hitters: they both posted good batting averages with modest power. Kluszewski's slugging percentage through Age-26 was .436…Loney’s mark was one point less: .435.
Both players had disappointing seasons at twenty-six. Loney’s .267 batting average and home run rate was the lower of his career, while Kluszewski’s batting average dropped to .259, after consecutive seasons above .300.
And both players rebounded at twenty-seven:
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
Klusz
|
135
|
62
|
24
|
16
|
86
|
.320
|
Loney
|
158
|
55
|
30
|
12
|
65
|
.288
|
Loney’s rebound season was last year…we’re up-to-date now. As you probably know, Loney had an extremely strong second-half last season. After hitting .167 in July, Loney posted batting averages of .367 and .348 in the last two months of 2012.
What you probably didn’t know is that Kluszewski had a similar improvement during the second-half of his Age-27 season.
Pre-All-Star Game:
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Klusz
|
64
|
24
|
9
|
7
|
40
|
.297
|
.336
|
.456
|
Loney
|
91
|
23
|
12
|
4
|
31
|
.268
|
.311
|
.342
|
Post-All-Star Game:
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
Klusz
|
71
|
37
|
15
|
9
|
46
|
.342
|
.427
|
.560
|
Loney
|
67
|
33
|
18
|
8
|
34
|
.320
|
.380
|
.534
|
There are some differences in the two second-half upticks…Loney’s excellent August and September came on the heels of a terrible July. Loney also had a rough April, hitting .210 on the month. Kluszewski was more consistent: his batting average hovered around .300 most months.
But…Loney’s power jump is drastically better than Kluszewski’s. In Kluszewski’s time, the All-Star break happened a little before midseason, so his uptick in power is partially caused by playing time.
Today, the All-Star break happens much later in the season. So while the counting stats show that James Loney doubled his homerun output in the second half, the reality is that he more than tripled his rate. He went from homering once every 88 at-bats, to hitting it out of the yard once every 25 at-bats.
Which is probably a fluke.
But…Loney’s career has paralleled Ted Kluszewski’s career for all five years he’s been in the major leagues. And Ted Kluszewski had a big uptick in homeruns in 1953, when he was twenty-eight years old:
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
Klusz
|
149
|
97
|
25
|
40
|
108
|
.316
|
Kluszewski transformed himself from a good, solid hitter, to one of the best hitters in the game. And the transformation wasn’t a fluke: in 1954, the Cincinnati 1B led the NL in homeruns and RBI’s, and finished fifth in the race for the batting title.
Name
|
G
|
R
|
2B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
BA
|
Klusz
|
149
|
104
|
28
|
49
|
141
|
.326
|
Klusz
|
153
|
116
|
25
|
47
|
113
|
.314
|
Could James Loney follow suit?
It’s a long shot, but the peripheral stats don’t suggest any abnormal luck in Loney’s 2011 successes. His batting average on balls in play was .309, which is in line with his .311 career mark. His walk rate was slightly down, but not out of sync with his career numbers. His strikeout rate decreased. It wasn’t Kemp: Loney wasn’t seeing more fastballs because his teammate was having a monster season.
In other words: there’s no clear indication that Loney’s success last year was attributable to anything except his own improvement. As far as I can tell, he just got better.
I don’t know that he’ll continue to improve in 2011...but there’s at least one player who illustrates the upper strata of what an improving James Loney could be capable of.
Dave Fleming is a writer living in Wellington, New Zealand. He welcomes comments, questions, and bicep-torn Reds jerseys here and at dfleming1986@yahoo.com.