BILL JAMES ONLINE

July 21 Poll Report

By Bill James
July 21, 2019
 

July 21 Poll Report

 

            Good morning everybody.  Yesterday’s poll involved two candidates a little below 1% and two candidates around 3%, so there was not a lot at stake in that contest.  The two "serious" candidates, the three-percenters, were Kirsten Gillibrand and Beto O’Rourke.  Gillibrand stole ten percentage points from O’Rourke’s expected vote share to win the day:

Scores

Gravel

79

Williamson

98

Gillibrand

272

O'Rourke

340

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predicted

Gravel

10

Williamson

12

Gillibrand

34

O'Rourke

43

Actual

Gravel

12

Williamson

11

Gillibrand

44

O'Rourke

33

 

            Gillibrand was also in the old poll, removed from the data, the poll of May 31; the removal of that poll also helped her a little, so she was the day’s big winner.   Since yesterday:

            Kirsten Gillibrand is up 16 points as a result of the combined effects of yesterday’s poll and the removal of the May 31 poll.

            Michael Bennet continues his charge, moving up another 13 points as a result of the removal of the May 31 poll from the data considered relevant.

            Cory Booker is down 11 points as a result of the removal of the May 31 poll; however, Booker is doing very well in the poll which is currently running, and will probably be back up tomorrow.

            Beto O’Rourke is down 12 points as a result of his underperformance in yesterday’s poll. 

            Did any of these guys appear on the Sunday morning shows?   I missed those shows this morning; went to church.  I guess I’ll see them on the clips. 

            These are the updated Support Scores:

 

Rank

First

Last

Support

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1860

2

Pete

Buttigieg

975

3

Joe

Biden

936

4

Kamala

Harris

816

5

Donald

Trump

605

6

Amy

Klobuchar

455

7

Andrew

Yang

449

8

Julian

Castro

435

9

Bernie

Sanders

398

10

Beto

O'Rourke

328

11

Cory

Booker

306

12

Kirsten

Gillibrand

288

13

John

Hickenlooper

268

14

Jay

Inslee

268

15

Tulsi

Gabbard

250

16

Bill

Weld

220

17

Michael

Bennet

194

18

Howard

Schultz

169

19

John

Delaney

127

20

Tim

Ryan

120

21

Bill

de Blasio

105

22

Marianne

Williamson

97

23

Steve

Bullock

94

24

Seth

Moulton

84

25

Mike

Gravel

80

 

            It is a shame there isn’t anyone named "Rhodes" running for the office; we could have the Gravel-Rhodes ticket.  Thanks for reading.

 

​
 
 

COMMENTS (7 Comments, most recent shown first)

BarryBondsFan25
Did he over pronounce his words back then as well?

We shouldn't be too hard on Booker though. He is pushing the Green New Deal to save the world. You know, like how the brave souls who confronted the Nazis in World War II saved the world.

If nominated I'm sure the media will tell me how "gifted" a politician Booker is.
5:22 PM Jul 22nd
 
OldBackstop
I served on a charity board with Booker. He is a smooth guy with a titanic ego and worse temper. He was busted for manufacturing stories from his past "google "T-Bone" and left Newark, where he was mayor, more of a shambles than he found it, which you would think was utterly impossible.

Once scrutinized, he certainly will be an anvil around the neck of the Dems, whether he leads a ticket or is Veep, in the rural and suburban areas of the battleground states.


11:25 AM Jul 22nd
 
LesLein
The campaign is very important for Booker, being a matter of good versus evil. Last year he said he told Brett Kavanaugh:

“You are either complicit in the evil, you are either contributing to the wrong, or you are fighting against it.”

Booker even got his Spartacus moment wrong. The documents he said he was disclosing against the rules had been approved for release. A Bush representative told him at 4 am that morning that the documents had been cleared.

Whoever wins next year, we’ll still be stuck with a grandstanding demagogue.
8:46 AM Jul 22nd
 
LesLein
The campaign is very important for Booker, being a matter of good versus evil. Last year he said he told Brett Kavanaugh:

“You are either complicit in the evil, you are either contributing to the wrong, or you are fighting against it.”

Booker even got his Spartacus moment wrong. The documents he said he was disclosing against the rules had been approved for release. A Bush representative told him at 4 am that morning that the documents had been cleared.

Whoever wins next year, we’ll still be stuck with a grandstanding demagogue.
8:44 AM Jul 22nd
 
bjames
The fact that we don't see an Obama-like talent hiding in the crowd doesn't mean he or she isn't there. We could easily miss it with this many candidates.

Glad to know about Booker on Face the Nation. He is over-performing quite significantly in the poll which is currently running. That probably explains it. Thanks.
11:18 PM Jul 21st
 
chrisbodig
Cory Booker was on Face the Nation and State of the Union. I only watched the Face interview; it was mostly about Trump v The Squad.

Steve Bullock was on This Week with George Stephanopoulos.

Bullock is left-center, pushed back against Medicare for All, giving unlimited health care to illegal immigrants and decriminalizing border crossings. I've said it before; Bullock would beat Trump handily. He's 53 years old, good age for a candidate. Dems are missing out by not taking a closer look at him.

For whatever it's worth, two of the last three Democratic Presidents have been governors of red states that were relative unknowns 16 months before the election (Carter and Clinton). The other (Obama) was an extraordinary political talent. I don't see any Obamas in this crop.


7:54 PM Jul 21st
 
BarryBondsFan25
Bernie Sanders campaign after campaign workers demanded to be paid $15 per hour:


"...we are limiting hours so no employee is receiving less than $15 for any hours worked."


And who said Bernie wasn't a capitalist?
7:40 PM Jul 21st
 
 
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