July 24 Poll Report

            Good evening everybody.   I was traveling yesterday (and most of today) and did not get a poll report done; sorry.  That means I have two polls to report on, two deleted polls to acknowledge.  I don’t know that a lot happened in the deleted polls; I think we can pretty much skip those.   The poll results of July 22 can be summarized as "everybody takes advantage of Bill de Blasio."  De Blasio, the much-maligned mayor of the great city of New York, had been doing surprisingly well in my polls, rallying from a starting point under 50 to a Support Score in excess of 100.   Based on that, we expected him to draw 6% of the vote in a contest against Mayor Pete, ex-mayor Julian and he-might-have-been-a-mayor-of-something-sometime Tim Ryan.  He drew only 2%, with Buttigieg and Ryan picking up his support:

            Castro was below expectations in that poll but is up in the Support Scores anyway as the result of the removal of the old poll.   In our poll of July 23 President Trump, who had been doing much better in my polls, fell back to where he had been, being routed by Michael Bennet, who is a serious man but would but marginally qualify as a serious candidate:

            The predictions for that poll, based only previous polling, were only 34% accurate, making that the most surprising poll result since I started doing this in April. 

            That result bumps up the scores of Bennet, Bullock and Schultz, for which I kind of have to apologize.    We can see that what happened is that the Trump supporters just weren’t there on that day, which means that whoever else happened to be in that poll group would get an inflated score for the day, which means that their inflated score for that day will be with us for a while.   To an extent my system copes with that; it is just one poll among 50, the outcome of it has limited ability to distort the Support Scores from what they should be.  Limited, but not zero.   Anyway, the significant movements in the scores in the last two days effect only six candidates:

            Michael Bennet is up 40 points as a result of finishing first in yesterday’s poll.  

            Julian Castro is up 29 points as a result of the elimination from the data of the poll of June 2, in which he barely beat Jay Inslee and John Hickenlooper (31-30-30). 

            Steve Bullock is up 22 points as a result of his misleading performance in yesterday’s poll; not commenting on his merits as a candidate.

            Bill de Blasio is down 14 points as a result of doing poorly in Monday’s poll. 

            John Hickenlooper is down 14 points as a result of the removal of the June 2^nd poll from the data now considered relevant, and

            Donald Trump is down 66 points as a result of yesterday’s poll.  

            These are the updated Support Scores:

            We’re still in that phase, post-debate, where more support is drifting toward some of the weaker candidates than is going to the stronger ones.   Eleven candidates are marked in green (up 33%), while none are marked in gray (down 25%), because the losses of Biden, Buttigieg and Warren are not highly significant to them, but represent a significant percentage increase to those who pick up that support.

            Thank you for your interest.